Mississippi State vs Texas A&M: Texas A&M Wins 3-0 (Oct 4)

FinalSun, Oct 4, 2026SECN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Texas A&M 91.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Texas A&M beat visiting Mississippi St. 3-0 (25-22, 25-20, 28-26) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. Texas A&M's Kyndal Stowers led with 21 kills.

Data through Nov 3, 4:45 PM CT · final Oct 4

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MISSST	22	20	26	0
TX A&M	25	25	28	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

21 kills in 3 sets for Kyndal Stowers. Texas A&M swept Mississippi St.

No single rally moved win probability more than 3.2 points. Mississippi St. peaked at 20% in Set 1. These are the numbers behind it. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Texas A&M at 91%.

Mississippi St.Texas A&M

Hitting+.081
.114.195
46 K / 22 E against 28 K / 15 E.

Texas A&M above 50Mississippi St. belowMax swing 3.2%

Mississippi St.Texas A&M

Aces: Mississippi St. 7·Texas A&M 8
Serve err: Mississippi St. 7·Texas A&M 10
Blocks: Mississippi St. 9·Texas A&M 71 BS · 16 BA vs 2 BS · 10 BA
Digs: Mississippi St. 44·Texas A&M 51

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Texas A&M above 50 · Mississippi St. below

Biggest swing: 3.2% to Mississippi St. — set 1, MISSST 21-20 TX A&M. Megan Fitch stuffed by Bernardita Aguilar & Noella Obi. TX A&M win probability 89% → 86%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MISSST 21.3%78.7% TX A&M

Mississippi St. wins

3-0

3.6%

3-1

7.2%

3-2

10.6%

Texas A&M wins

3-0

30.3%

3-1

29.8%

3-2

18.6%

MISSST break %: 38.1% vs this opp
TX A&M break %: 44.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Bernardita Aguilar&Noella ObiBlock+3.2%
Megan Fitch stuffed by Bernardita Aguilar & Noella Obi
Set 1 · MISSST 21-20 TX A&M · MISSST 11% → 14%
02
Kyndal StowersKill+3.1%
Kill by Kyndal Stowers (set by Gabi Rodriguez)
Set 1 · MISSST 21-22 TX A&M · TX A&M 88% → 91%
03
Kyndal StowersKill+2.9%
Kill by Kyndal Stowers (set by Kirra Musgrove)
Set 1 · MISSST 22-24 TX A&M · TX A&M 91% → 94%
04
Kyndal StowersKill+2.6%
Kill by Kyndal Stowers (set by Kirra Musgrove)
Set 1 · MISSST 22-23 TX A&M · TX A&M 89% → 91%
05
Taryn MorrisKill+2.3%
Kill by Taryn Morris (set by Kirra Musgrove)
Set 1 · MISSST 18-18 TX A&M · TX A&M 86% → 89%
06
Paloma RoutaboulKill+2.3%
Kill by Paloma Routaboul (set by Erin Kline)
Set 1 · MISSST 22-22 TX A&M · MISSST 9% → 11%
07
Taryn MorrisKill+2.2%
Kill by Taryn Morris (set by Kirra Musgrove)
Set 1 · MISSST 18-17 TX A&M · TX A&M 84% → 86%
08
Lindsey MangelsonAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Lindsey Mangelson
Set 1 · MISSST 18-19 TX A&M · TX A&M 89% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Mississippi St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Lindsey MangelsonOH	3	9	9	43	.000	0	0	0	7	3	0	2	1	10
10Paloma RoutaboulOH	3	8	2	31	.194	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	8
22Gha'Naye Whitfield-MossMB	3	3	0	5	.600	0	2	2	2	0	1	2	2	7
20Noella ObiOPP	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
1Bernardita AguilarOH	3	3	2	14	.071	0	0	1	10	0	0	4	2	5
5Erin KlineS	3	0	0	5	.000	23	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	1
2Adriana JeanpierreS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
4McKenna YatesDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
8Mary NealDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	8	1	0	0	0	0
21Ava AndersonMB	2	2	0	6	.333	0	3	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
17Kyla ScharfmanDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	15	114	.114	25	7	7	44	8	1	16	9	68

Texas A&Mhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
37Kyndal StowersOH	3	21	4	50	.340	0	5	3	7	2	0	1	0.5	26.5
6Taryn MorrisOPP	3	9	3	21	.286	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	9
20Megan FitchOH	3	6	7	21	-.048	0	1	2	6	2	0	0	0	7
14Kirra MusgroveS	3	2	1	8	.125	35	1	2	9	0	2	4	4	7
16Lolufe AdedejiMB	3	3	3	10	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	5.5
19Kaia CastleMB	3	5	4	13	.077	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	5
10Margot ManningS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
2Addi ApplegateL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
4Brooke LacewellOPP	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
1Gabi RodriguezL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	9	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	22	123	.195	39	8	10	51	7	2	10	7	78

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MISSST · TX A&M 4

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 MISSSTTX A&M 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 2 MISSSTTX A&M 3

Set 3

26-28

Longest run 5 MISSSTTX A&M 4

Bars above the line = Texas A&M leads, below = Mississippi St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mississippi St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%6/12	40%4/10
2	56%5/9	54%7/13
3	44%4/9	38%3/8
4	67%4/6	20%1/5
5	57%4/7	50%4/8
6	50%4/8	33%2/6
All	53%27/51	42%21/50

Texas A&M

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	50%4/8
2	46%6/13	50%6/12
3	63%5/8	44%4/9
4	80%4/5	56%5/9
5	50%4/8	33%2/6
6	67%4/6	43%3/7
All	58%29/50	47%24/51

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

146 rallies

#	MISSST-TX A&M	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi		+1.1
2	1-1	MISSST	TX A&M	Blocked	Noella Obi	blk Kirra Musgrove	+0.7
3	1-2	TX A&M	TX A&M	Blocked	Bernardita Aguilar	blk Kyndal Stowers, Lolufe Adedeji	+0.9
4	2-2	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Paloma Routaboul	+0.7
5	2-3	MISSST	TX A&M	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.7
6	2-4	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle		+0.9
7	3-4	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.7
8	4-4	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+1.1
9	4-5	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.7
10	4-6	TX A&M	TX A&M	Ace	Texas A&M	aced Paloma Routaboul	+0.9
11	5-6	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+0.7
12	6-6	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Kaia Castle		+1.1
13	6-7	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.8
14	7-7	TX A&M	MISSST×4	Blocked	Taryn Morris	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Lindsey Mangelson	+0.9
15	8-7	MISSST	MISSST×4	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson		+1.4
16	9-7	MISSST	MISSST×4	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Gabi Rodriguez	+1.6
17	10-7	MISSST	MISSST×4	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Gabi Rodriguez	+1.7
18	10-8	MISSST	TX A&M	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+1.0
19	11-8	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+1.3
20	11-9	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.1
21	12-9	TX A&M	MISSST	Blocked	Megan Fitch	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+1.4
22	13-9	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Lolufe Adedeji		+1.9
23	13-10	MISSST	TX A&M	Bad set	Erin Kline		+1.1
24	14-10	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Erin Kline	+1.5
25	15-10	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Megan Fitch	+1.9
26	15-11	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Gabi Rodriguez	+1.0
27	16-11	TX A&M	MISSST	Attack err	Kaia Castle		+1.4
28	16-12	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.0
29	17-12	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+1.4
30	17-13	MISSST	TX A&M×3	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.9
31	17-14	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Ace	Texas A&M	aced Lindsey Mangelson	+1.6
32	17-15	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Ace	Texas A&M		+1.9
33	18-15	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+1.8
34	18-16	MISSST	TX A&M×4	Attack err	Noella Obi		+1.4
35	18-17	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.2
36	18-18	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.3
37	18-19	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+2.2
38	19-19	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+1.7
39	19-20	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.7
40	20-20	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+1.8
41	21-20	MISSST	MISSST	Blocked	Megan Fitch	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Noella Obi	+3.2
42	21-21	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Lolufe Adedeji	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.1
43	21-22	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Gabi Rodriguez	+3.1
44	22-22	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+2.3
45	22-23	MISSST	TX A&M×3	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.6
46	22-24	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+2.9
47	22-25	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Erin Kline	+1.3
Set 2
1	1-0	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.5
2	2-0	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set McKenna Yates	+0.8
3	2-1	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
4	2-2	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.7
5	3-2	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Bernardita Aguilar	set Erin Kline	+0.6
6	3-3	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
7	3-4	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.7
8	4-4	TX A&M	MISSST	Blocked	Kyndal Stowers	blk Bernardita Aguilar, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+0.5
9	5-4	MISSST	MISSST	Blocked	Kaia Castle	blk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	+0.8
10	5-5	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
11	6-5	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+0.6
12	6-6	MISSST	TX A&M	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.6
13	7-6	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+0.7
14	7-7	MISSST	TX A&M	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.6
15	7-8	TX A&M	TX A&M	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.8
16	8-8	TX A&M	MISSST	Attack err	Kirra Musgrove		+0.6
17	8-9	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Lolufe Adedeji	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.6
18	9-9	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+0.6
19	9-10	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set McKenna Yates	+0.6
20	10-10	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+0.7
21	10-11	MISSST	TX A&M	Attack err	Bernardita Aguilar		+0.6
22	11-11	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+0.7
23	11-12	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.6
24	12-12	TX A&M	MISSST	Attack err	Megan Fitch		+0.7
25	12-13	MISSST	TX A&M	Attack err	Kirra Musgrove		+0.7
26	12-14	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.9
27	13-14	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.6
28	13-15	MISSST	TX A&M×3	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.6
29	13-16	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Blocked	Lindsey Mangelson	blk Lolufe Adedeji, Kirra Musgrove	+0.7
30	13-17	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Ace	Texas A&M	aced Lindsey Mangelson	+0.5
31	14-17	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Ava Anderson	set Erin Kline	+0.3
32	15-17	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Megan Fitch	+0.7
33	15-18	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.6
34	15-19	TX A&M	TX A&M	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.6
35	16-19	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.3
36	16-20	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
37	17-20	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+0.3
38	17-21	MISSST	TX A&M	Attack err	Paloma Routaboul		+0.4
39	18-21	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+0.3
40	19-21	MISSST	MISSST	Kill	Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss	set Erin Kline	+0.7
41	19-22	MISSST	TX A&M×3	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.7
42	19-23		TX A&M	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.6
43	19-24	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.2
44	20-24	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		·
45	20-25	MISSST	TX A&M	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	MISSST	TX A&M	Blocked	Lindsey Mangelson	blk Kirra Musgrove, Lolufe Adedeji	+0.2
2	0-2	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.3
3	1-2	TX A&M	MISSST	Blocked	Kyndal Stowers	blk Ava Anderson, Erin Kline	+0.2
4	2-2	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Addi Applegate	+0.3
5	2-3	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.2
6	3-3	TX A&M	MISSST	Blocked	Kyndal Stowers	blk Erin Kline, Noella Obi	+0.2
7	4-3	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Taryn Morris		+0.4
8	4-4	MISSST	TX A&M×3	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.3
9	4-5	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Ace	Texas A&M	aced Mary Neal	+0.3
10	4-6	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Ace	Texas A&M		+0.3
11	5-6	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Noella Obi	set Erin Kline	+0.2
12	5-7	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.2
13	6-7	TX A&M	MISSST	Attack err	Megan Fitch		+0.2
14	7-7	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Megan Fitch		+0.4
15	7-8	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.3
16	8-8	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+0.3
17	9-8	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Megan Fitch		+0.5
18	9-9	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kirra Musgrove		+0.3
19	9-10	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Lolufe Adedeji		+0.4
20	10-10	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+0.3
21	11-10	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Lolufe Adedeji		+0.5
22	11-11	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.3
23	12-11	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Ava Anderson	set Erin Kline	+0.4
24	13-11	MISSST	MISSST	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Kyndal Stowers	+0.6
25	13-12	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
26	13-13	TX A&M	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
27	14-13	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.4
28	15-13	MISSST	MISSST	Blocked	Taryn Morris	blk Noella Obi, Bernardita Aguilar	+0.7
29	15-14	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kaia Castle	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
30	16-14	TX A&M	MISSST	Serve err	Texas A&M		+0.5
31	16-15	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.4
32	17-15	TX A&M	MISSST	Attack err	Lolufe Adedeji		+0.6
33	17-16	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Taryn Morris	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.5
34	18-16	TX A&M	MISSST	Attack err	Megan Fitch		+0.6
35	19-16	MISSST	MISSST	Attack err	Kyndal Stowers		+0.8
36	19-17	MISSST	TX A&M×4	Serve err	Mississippi St.		+0.4
37	19-18	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Blocked	Paloma Routaboul	blk Kirra Musgrove, Lolufe Adedeji	+0.7
38	19-19	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+0.8
39	19-20	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Ace	Texas A&M	aced Lindsey Mangelson	+0.8
40	20-20	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Paloma Routaboul	set Erin Kline	+0.6
41	20-21	MISSST	TX A&M×4	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Gabi Rodriguez	+0.6
42	20-22	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Blocked	Lindsey Mangelson	blk Kirra Musgrove	+0.7
43	20-23	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Kill	Kirra Musgrove	set Bernardita Aguilar	+0.5
44	20-24	TX A&M	TX A&M×4	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+0.2
45	21-24	TX A&M	MISSST×5	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+0.1
46	22-24	MISSST	MISSST×5	Blocked	Kaia Castle	blk Lindsey Mangelson, Noella Obi	+0.2
47	23-24	MISSST	MISSST×5	Bad set	Kirra Musgrove		+0.5
48	24-24	MISSST	MISSST×5	Kill	Noella Obi		+1.4
49	25-24	MISSST	MISSST×5	Ace	Mississippi St.	aced Kyndal Stowers	+1.8
50	25-25	MISSST	TX A&M	Kill	Kyndal Stowers	set Kirra Musgrove	+1.3
51	26-25	TX A&M	MISSST	Kill	Lindsey Mangelson	set Erin Kline	+1.3
52	26-26	MISSST	TX A&M×3	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+1.3
53	26-27	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Attack err	Lindsey Mangelson		+1.5
54	26-28	TX A&M	TX A&M×3	Kill	Megan Fitch	set Gabi Rodriguez	+1.2

Score shown after each rally, Mississippi St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Texas A&M def. Mississippi St. 3–0

21 kills in 3 sets for Kyndal Stowers. Texas A&M swept Mississippi St.