Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 25, 2026Watch on SECN+

Mississippi St. def. Arkansas 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Mississippi St. 73.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 25, 1:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mississippi St. beat visiting Arkansas 3-2 (25-16, 25-14, 22-25, 14-25, 15-7) on Sun, Oct 25, 2026. Mississippi St.'s Lindsey Mangelson led with 15 kills, and McKenna Yates added 24 digs.

Data through · final Oct 25

Set12345Sets
ARK1614252572
MISSST25252214153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Mississippi St. won it at the net: 14 blocks, led by Ava Anderson.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Mississippi St.'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. RallyIQ gave Mississippi St. 74% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Arkansas 9–9 Mississippi St.

    Arkansas scored 5 straight to go from 9–9 to a 14–9 lead.

    Mississippi St. 85% → 69%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Arkansas 2–1 Mississippi St.

    3 straight Mississippi St. points turned a 1–2 deficit into a 4–2 lead.

    Mississippi St. 53% → 76%

Mississippi St. above 50Arkansas belowMax swing 8.8%

ArkansasMississippi St.

Sideout %
Arkansas 54.5·Mississippi St. 63.2
Break %
Arkansas 36.8·Mississippi St. 45.5
Hitting
Arkansas .176·Mississippi St. .240
Longest run
Arkansas 5·Mississippi St. 6
Blocks
Arkansas 8·Mississippi St. 144 BS · 8 BA vs 2 BS · 24 BA

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Mississippi St. above 50 · Arkansas below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+8.8% MISSSTrally 188 · set 5

Biggest swing: 8.8% to Mississippi St. — set 5, ARK 2-3 MISSST. Kill by Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss (set by McKenna Yates). MISSST win probability 59% → 68%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ARK 22.9%77.1% MISSST

Arkansas wins

3-0
3.9%
3-1
7.8%
3-2
11.2%

Mississippi St. wins

3-0
28.8%
3-1
29.3%
3-2
18.9%
ARK break %
38.8% vs this opp
MISSST break %
44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss (set by McKenna Yates)

    Set 5 · ARK 2-3 MISSST · MISSST 59% → 68%

  2. 02

    Paisley Pavliska stuffed by Ava Anderson & Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss

    Set 5 · ARK 2-4 MISSST · MISSST 68% → 76%

  3. 03

    Romani Thurman stuffed by Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss & Paloma Routaboul

    Set 5 · ARK 3-6 MISSST · MISSST 76% → 84%

  4. 04

    Kill by Paisley Pavliska (set by Kiki Remensperger)

    Set 5 · ARK 2-1 MISSST · ARK 41% → 47%

  5. 05
    Mississippi St.Service error+6.4%

    Mississippi St. service error

    Set 5 · ARK 1-0 MISSST · ARK 40% → 47%

  6. 06

    Kill by Bernardita Aguilar (set by Cayley Hanson)

    Set 5 · ARK 2-2 MISSST · MISSST 53% → 59%

  7. 07

    Kill by Paloma Routaboul (set by Lindsey Mangelson)

    Set 5 · ARK 4-8 MISSST · MISSST 85% → 91%

  8. 08
    Paisley PavliskaAttack error+6.0%

    Attack error by Paisley Pavliska

    Set 5 · ARK 1-1 MISSST · MISSST 53% → 59%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514233.3643015210115
57725.000000200218
56215.26700130010.56.5
4000–301500000
27422.136111510008
2216.16700000212.54.5
5306.50041001600214
5000–5101610001
5000–4012000000
45111.364000001227
3141034.1181019000014
23418-.056000100003
Team totals6131170.176582682448887
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515557.17510017102116
57212.4170222008413
510438.15800011031.511.5
58321.2380003014311
59219.36800010031.510.5
51011.0002100500001
59126.3082002014312
5001.000121900002
5000–2701500000
5000–3022400000
1000–000000000
Team totals5917175.240554669222414101

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 ARK · MISSST 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 ARKMISSST 5

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 ARKMISSST 6

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 5 ARKMISSST 4

Set 4

25-14

Longest run 5 ARKMISSST 3

Set 5

7-15

Longest run 1 ARKMISSST 5

Bars above the line = Mississippi St. leads, below = Arkansas leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Arkansas

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
50%10/20
2
50%10/20
15%2/13
3
56%10/18
38%6/16
4
47%8/17
43%6/14
5
53%8/15
20%2/10
6
67%8/12
43%6/14
All
54%55/101
37%32/87

Mississippi St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
38%6/16
2
59%10/17
60%15/25
3
75%9/12
17%2/12
4
67%8/12
57%12/21
5
67%8/12
56%10/18
6
47%8/17
11%1/9
All
63%55/87
46%46/101

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

188 rallies

#ARK-MISSSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MISSSTMISSSTAttack errParker Duncan+2.0
21-1MISSSTARKKillParker Duncanset Madi Benne+1.5
31-2ARKMISSST×5KillAva Andersonset Erin Kline+1.4
41-3MISSSTMISSST×5Attack errParker Duncan+1.9
51-4MISSSTMISSST×5KillPaloma Routaboulset Erin Kline+1.7
61-5MISSSTMISSST×5AceAva Andersonaced Lakin Laurendine+1.5
71-6MISSSTMISSST×5KillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Erin Kline+1.3
82-6MISSSTARK×3Serve errMississippi St.+0.8
93-6ARKARK×3BlockedPaloma Routaboulblk Layla Smith, Romani Thurman+1.4
104-6ARKARK×3AceParker Duncanaced Paloma Routaboul+1.7
114-7ARKMISSSTServe errArkansas+1.3
125-7MISSSTARKServe errMississippi St.+1.3
135-8ARKMISSST×4KillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+1.3
145-9MISSSTMISSST×4AceMary Nealaced Parker Duncan+1.6
155-10MISSSTMISSST×4KillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+1.3
165-11MISSSTMISSST×4KillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+1.1
176-11MISSSTARKKillLaci Bohannanset Maggie McCarroll+0.6
186-12ARKMISSST×3Attack errLaci Bohannan+0.7
196-13MISSSTMISSST×3KillLindsey Mangelsonset Laci Bohannan+0.8
206-14MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errLaci Bohannan+0.5
217-14MISSSTARKServe errMississippi St.+0.3
227-15ARKMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+0.4
237-16MISSSTMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Bernardita Aguilar+0.3
248-16MISSSTARKKillParker Duncanset Maggie McCarroll+0.1
259-16ARKARKBlockedAva Andersonblk Layla Smith+0.3
269-17ARKMISSSTKillAva Andersonset Erin Kline+0.3
279-18MISSSTMISSSTKillAva Andersonset Erin Kline+0.3
2810-18MISSSTARKKillParker Duncanset Maggie McCarroll+0.1
2910-19ARKMISSSTKillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Erin Kline+0.2
3010-20MISSSTMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Erin Kline+0.1
3111-20MISSSTARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger·
3212-20ARKARKAttack errGha'Naye Whitfield-Moss+0.1
3312-21ARKMISSSTKillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Erin Kline+0.1
3413-21MISSSTARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger·
3513-22ARKMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+0.1
3614-22MISSSTARKKillRomani Thurmanset Madi Benne·
3714-23ARKMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson·
3815-23MISSSTARKKillLaci Bohannanset Kiki Remensperger·
3915-24ARKMISSSTAttack errLakin Laurendine·
4016-24MISSSTARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger·
4116-25ARKMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Erin Kline·
Set 2
10-1ARKMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Erin Kline+1.1
20-2MISSSTMISSSTAceAva Andersonaced Madi Benne+1.5
31-2MISSSTARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+1.1
41-3ARKMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset McKenna Yates+1.1
52-3MISSSTARKKillKiki Remenspergerset Parker Duncan+1.1
62-4ARKMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+1.1
73-4MISSSTARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+1.1
83-5ARKMISSST×3KillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+1.1
93-6MISSSTMISSST×3BlockedParker Duncanblk Ava Anderson, Bernardita Aguilar+1.4
103-7MISSSTMISSST×3KillAva Andersonset Cayley Hanson+1.3
114-7MISSSTARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+0.8
125-7ARKARKBlockedLindsey Mangelsonblk Layla Smith+1.4
135-8ARKMISSSTKillAva Andersonset Cayley Hanson+1.1
146-8MISSSTARKKillLayla Smithset Kiki Remensperger+1.0
156-9ARKMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Erin Kline+1.1
166-10MISSSTMISSSTAttack errRomani Thurman+1.3
177-10MISSSTARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
187-11ARKMISSSTKillErin Kline+1.0
198-11MISSSTARKKillLaci Bohannanset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
209-11ARKARKAttack errPaloma Routaboul+1.5
219-12ARKMISSSTKillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Erin Kline+1.2
2210-12MISSSTARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+1.1
2310-13ARKMISSST×6KillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+1.2
2410-14MISSSTMISSST×6BlockedParker Duncanblk Bernardita Aguilar+1.5
2510-15MISSSTMISSST×6KillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+1.1
2610-16MISSSTMISSST×6BlockedLayla Smithblk Noella Obi, Lindsey Mangelson+0.8
2710-17MISSSTMISSST×6KillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+0.5
2810-18MISSSTMISSST×6KillLindsey Mangelsonset Mary Neal+0.3
2911-18MISSSTARKKillParker Duncanset Kiki Remensperger+0.1
3011-19ARKMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+0.2
3112-19MISSSTARKServe errMississippi St.+0.1
3212-20ARKMISSSTKillAva Andersonset Cayley Hanson+0.2
3313-20MISSSTARKAttack errLindsey Mangelson+0.1
3413-21ARKMISSST×3Attack errLaci Bohannan+0.1
3513-22MISSSTMISSST×3Attack errRomani Thurman+0.1
3613-23MISSSTMISSST×3KillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Erin Kline·
3714-23MISSSTARKAttack errAva Anderson·
3814-24ARKMISSSTAttack errLaci Bohannan·
3914-25MISSSTMISSSTKillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Erin Kline·
Set 3
11-0MISSSTARKKillLakin Laurendineset Gaby Cornier+0.7
21-1ARKMISSSTAttack errPaisley Pavliska+0.6
31-2MISSSTMISSSTKillNoella Obi+0.9
42-2MISSSTARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+0.6
52-3ARKMISSSTServe errArkansas+0.6
63-3MISSSTARK×3KillJourney Peppersset Kiki Remensperger+0.6
74-3ARKARK×3Attack errBernardita Aguilar+1.0
85-3ARKARK×3KillPaisley Pavliskaset Lakin Laurendine+1.0
95-4ARKMISSSTBlockedRomani Thurmanblk Noella Obi, Paloma Routaboul+0.7
106-4MISSSTARKKillJourney Peppersset Kiki Remensperger+0.8
116-5ARKMISSST×4KillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+0.7
126-6MISSSTMISSST×4BlockedRomani Thurmanblk Ava Anderson, Lindsey Mangelson+1.0
136-7MISSSTMISSST×4KillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+1.0
146-8MISSSTMISSST×4KillLindsey Mangelsonset Bernardita Aguilar+0.9
157-8MISSSTARKKillJourney Peppersset Kiki Remensperger+0.6
168-8ARKARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+1.0
178-9ARKMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Cayley Hanson+0.7
189-9MISSSTARK×5KillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+0.8
1910-9ARKARK×5BlockedLindsey Mangelsonblk Kiki Remensperger, Aleki Alexander+1.2
2011-9ARKARK×5KillKiki Remenspergerset Gaby Cornier+1.2
2112-9ARKARK×5KillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+1.2
2213-9ARKARK×5KillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+1.2
2313-10ARKMISSSTKillAva Andersonset Erin Kline+0.7
2414-10MISSSTARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
2514-11ARKMISSSTServe errArkansas+0.7
2615-11MISSSTARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
2715-12ARKMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Erin Kline+0.7
2816-12MISSSTARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+0.9
2916-13ARKMISSST×3KillPaloma Routaboulset Cayley Hanson+0.7
3016-14MISSSTMISSST×3AceMary Nealaced Lakin Laurendine+1.2
3116-15MISSSTMISSST×3KillBernardita Aguilarset McKenna Yates+1.4
3217-15MISSSTARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+1.2
3317-16ARKMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+1.0
3417-17MISSSTMISSSTAttack errJourney Peppers+1.6
3518-17MISSSTARKKillRomani Thurmanset Kiki Remensperger+1.2
3619-17ARKARKKillLakin Laurendineset Paisley Pavliska+1.8
3719-18ARKMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+1.1
3820-18MISSSTARKAttack errLindsey Mangelson+1.4
3920-19ARKMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Erin Kline+1.2
4020-20MISSSTMISSSTBlockedAleki Alexanderblk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss+1.9
4121-20MISSSTARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+1.6
4221-21ARKMISSSTBlockedPaisley Pavliskablk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Ava Anderson+1.5
4322-21MISSSTARK×3KillPaisley Pavliskaset Lakin Laurendine+1.9
4423-21ARKARK×3BlockedNoella Obiblk Journey Peppers, Kiki Remensperger+2.7
4524-21ARKARK×3KillPaisley Pavliskaset Lakin Laurendine+2.0
4624-22ARKMISSSTServe errArkansas+0.5
4725-22MISSSTARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+1.4
Set 4
11-0ARKARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+2.6
22-0ARKARKAttack errPaloma Routaboul+2.7
32-1ARKMISSST×3Serve errArkansas+1.8
42-2MISSSTMISSST×3KillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+2.6
52-3MISSSTMISSST×3KillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+2.5
63-3MISSSTARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+1.8
74-3ARKARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+2.8
84-4ARKMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+1.9
95-4MISSSTARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Madi Benne+2.1
105-5ARKMISSSTBad setJourney Peppers+1.9
115-6MISSSTMISSSTBlockedPaisley Pavliskablk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Ava Anderson+2.7
126-6MISSSTARKKillJourney Peppersset Kiki Remensperger+2.0
137-6ARKARKBlockedLindsey Mangelsonblk Journey Peppers, Romani Thurman+3.0
147-7ARKMISSSTKillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset Erin Kline+2.1
157-8MISSSTMISSSTAttack errRomani Thurman+2.9
168-8MISSSTARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+2.1
179-8ARKARKBlockedGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossblk Journey Peppers+3.2
189-9ARKMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Erin Kline+2.2
1910-9MISSSTARK×5KillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+2.4
2011-9ARKARK×5BlockedGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossblk Lakin Laurendine+3.5
2112-9ARKARK×5KillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+3.5
2213-9ARKARK×5AceMadi Benneaced Lindsey Mangelson+3.4
2314-9ARKARK×5KillAleki Alexander+3.0
2414-10ARKMISSSTBlockedRomani Thurmanblk Noella Obi, Paloma Routaboul+1.6
2515-10MISSSTARK×4KillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+2.2
2616-10ARKARK×4KillLakin Laurendineset Gaby Cornier+2.5
2717-10ARKARK×4Attack errNoella Obi+1.9
2818-10ARKARK×4Attack errPaloma Routaboul+1.3
2918-11ARKMISSSTKillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+0.5
3018-12MISSSTMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelson+1.0
3119-12MISSSTARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+1.2
3219-13ARKMISSSTKillNoella Obiset Cayley Hanson+0.6
3320-13MISSSTARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+1.1
3421-13ARKARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Gaby Cornier+0.8
3521-14ARKMISSSTBlockedPaisley Pavliskablk Bernardita Aguilar, Ava Anderson+0.2
3622-14MISSSTARK×4KillJourney Peppersset Kiki Remensperger+0.5
3723-14ARKARK×4KillRomani Thurmanset Madi Benne+0.2
3824-14ARKARK×4Bad setCayley Hanson+0.1
3925-14ARKARK×4KillRomani Thurmanset Madi Benne+1.2
Set 5
11-0MISSSTARKServe errMississippi St.+6.4
21-1ARKMISSSTAttack errPaisley Pavliska+6.0
32-1MISSSTARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+6.7
42-2ARKMISSST×3KillBernardita Aguilarset Cayley Hanson+6.3
52-3MISSSTMISSST×3KillGha'Naye Whitfield-Mossset McKenna Yates+8.8
62-4MISSSTMISSST×3BlockedPaisley Pavliskablk Ava Anderson, Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss+8.2
73-4MISSSTARKKillKiki Remensperger+5.7
83-5ARKMISSSTKillLindsey Mangelsonset Erin Kline+6.0
93-6MISSSTMISSSTBlockedRomani Thurmanblk Gha'Naye Whitfield-Moss, Paloma Routaboul+7.5
104-6MISSSTARKKillPaisley Pavliskaset Kiki Remensperger+4.7
114-7ARKMISSSTServe errArkansas+5.4
124-8MISSSTMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Lindsey Mangelson+6.1
135-8MISSSTARKServe errMississippi St.+3.4
145-9ARKMISSSTKillPaloma Routaboulset Erin Kline+4.4
156-9MISSSTARKKillAleki Alexanderset Kiki Remensperger+3.3
166-10ARKMISSSTAttack errLakin Laurendine+4.4
177-10MISSSTARKKillLakin Laurendineset Kiki Remensperger+3.2
187-11ARKMISSST×5Attack errPaisley Pavliska+4.4
197-12MISSSTMISSST×5Attack errPaisley Pavliska+3.7
207-13MISSSTMISSST×5Attack errAleki Alexander+1.7
217-14MISSSTMISSST×5BlockedPaisley Pavliskablk Bernardita Aguilar, Ava Anderson+0.5
227-15MISSSTMISSST×5BlockedPaisley Pavliskablk Bernardita Aguilar, Ava Anderson+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Arkansas first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).