FinalSat, Sep 19, 2026 · Neutral site

Illinois St. def. Marist 3–0

Illinois St. beat Marist 3-0 (25-17, 25-19, 25-22) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026 at a neutral site. Illinois St.'s Jillian Ferrill and Oliwia Caputa led with 13 kills each, and Samantha Bunch added 13 digs.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set123Sets
MARIST1719220
ILL ST2525253

Win probability

Illinois St. above 50 · Marist below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+1.8% MARISTrally 133 · set 3

Biggest swing: 1.8% to Marist — set 2, MARIST 8-6 ILL ST. Logan Grevengoed stuffed by Taylor Miller. ILL ST win probability 87% → 85%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MARIST 20.8%79.2% ILL ST

Marist wins

3-0
3.4%
3-1
7.0%
3-2
10.4%

Illinois St. wins

3-0
30.7%
3-1
30.0%
3-2
18.5%
MARIST break %
40.1% vs this opp
ILL ST break %
46.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Taylor MillerBlock+1.8%

    Logan Grevengoed stuffed by Taylor Miller

    Set 2 · MARIST 8-6 ILL ST · MARIST 13% → 15%

  2. 02
    Illinois St.Ace+1.7%

    Illinois St. ace on Claudia Kasperski

    Set 2 · MARIST 8-8 ILL ST · ILL ST 86% → 88%

  3. 03
    MaristAce+1.6%

    Marist ace on Peyton Turner

    Set 2 · MARIST 6-5 ILL ST · MARIST 11% → 13%

  4. 04
    Taylor MillerAttack error+1.6%

    Attack error by Taylor Miller

    Set 2 · MARIST 8-9 ILL ST · ILL ST 88% → 90%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ayla Klingenberg (set by Audrey Clark)

    Set 1 · MARIST 1-3 ILL ST · ILL ST 80% → 82%

  6. 06

    Kill by Sarah Bumstead

    Set 3 · MARIST 20-20 ILL ST · MARIST 3% → 5%

  7. 07
    Oliwia CaputaKill+1.5%

    Kill by Oliwia Caputa (set by Abby Reck)

    Set 3 · MARIST 20-22 ILL ST · ILL ST 97% → 98%

  8. 08

    Kill by Jillian Ferrill (set by Samantha Bunch)

    Set 2 · MARIST 9-11 ILL ST · ILL ST 90% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Maristaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
38531.09700050010.58.5
36416.125100102028
36012.500000100217
35014.357000100005
3103.333281160111.53.5
31011.000000000001
34212.16700060010.54.5
3000–030700003
3129-.11100011111.52.5
3000–000000000
3000–001320000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000100000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
Team totals321398.194294232746758
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313320.50001230111.515.5
313324.4170116000014
37518.111100100007
33214.07110010010.53.5
3001.0002601500000
3001.000000510000
310120.4500002000010
3518.500000100005
3001.0005311300003
3002.0001520600002
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
3000–000000000
Team totals5115109.330487543412275

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 MARIST · ILL ST 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 2 MARISTILL ST 6

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 MARISTILL ST 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 MARISTILL ST 4

Bars above the line = Illinois St. leads, below = Marist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Marist

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%6/14
17%1/6
2
100%5/5
25%2/8
3
67%4/6
17%1/6
4
67%4/6
20%1/5
5
50%4/8
50%4/8
6
40%4/10
56%5/9
All
55%27/49
33%14/42

Illinois St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%6/8
55%6/11
2
83%5/6
50%5/10
3
83%5/6
17%1/6
4
57%4/7
43%3/7
5
44%4/9
43%3/7
6
67%4/6
50%4/8
All
67%28/42
45%22/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

133 rallies

#MARIST-ILL STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MARISTILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.3
21-1ILL STMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+1.3
31-2MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.3
41-3ILL STILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Audrey Clark+1.6
52-3ILL STMARISTKillTaylor Millerset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
62-4MARISTILL STAttack errSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
73-4ILL STMARISTAttack errLogan Grevengoedset Samantha Bunch+1.3
83-5MARISTILL STBad setCecilia Potter-pessoa+1.3
93-6ILL STILL STAttack errTaylor Miller+1.5
104-6ILL STMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.1
114-7MARISTILL ST×6KillJillian Ferrillset Audrey Clark+1.2
124-8ILL STILL ST×6Attack errMallory Reck+1.3
134-9ILL STILL ST×6KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.1
144-10ILL STILL ST×6Attack errSarah Bumstead+0.9
154-11ILL STILL ST×6Attack errMallory Reck+0.7
164-12ILL STILL ST×6KillJillian Ferrill+0.5
175-12ILL STMARISTServe errIllinois St.+0.3
185-13MARISTILL STKillJillian Gregory+0.3
195-14ILL STILL STBlockedMallory Reckblk Abby Reck, Jillian Ferrill+0.3
206-14ILL STMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.2
217-14MARIST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
227-15MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Samantha Bunch+0.3
238-15ILL STMARISTServe errIllinois St.+0.2
249-15MARISTMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
259-16MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputa+0.4
2610-16ILL STMARISTKillMolly Malone+0.3
2710-17MARISTILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Logan Grevengoed+0.4
2811-17ILL STMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.3
2912-17MARISTMARISTBlockedJillian Gregoryblk Taylor Miller, Caelyn Dumas+0.6
3012-18MARISTILL ST×4Serve errMarist+0.6
3112-19ILL STILL ST×4Attack errSarah Bumstead+0.5
3212-20ILL ST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
3312-21ILL STILL ST×4KillAyla Klingenberg+0.1
3413-21ILL STMARISTServe errIllinois St.·
3513-22MARISTILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+0.1
3614-22ILL STMARISTKillMallory Reck·
3715-22MARISTMARISTKillCaelyn Dumas+0.1
3815-23MARISTILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+0.1
3916-23ILL STMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas·
4017-23MARISTMARISTBlockedAbby Reckblk Caelyn Dumas+0.1
4117-24MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+0.1
4217-25ILL STILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs·
Set 2
10-1ILL STILL STBlockedMallory Reckblk Jillian Ferrill+1.3
21-1ILL STMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
32-1MARISTMARISTAttack errJillian Ferrill+1.5
42-2MARISTILL STAttack errMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
53-2ILL STMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.1
63-3MARISTILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.1
74-3ILL STMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
84-4MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.1
94-5ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.+1.4
105-5ILL STMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.1
116-5MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Peyton Turner+1.6
126-6MARISTILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+1.2
137-6ILL STMARISTBlockedOliwia Caputablk Sarah Bumstead+1.3
148-6MARISTMARISTBlockedLogan Grevengoedblk Taylor Miller+1.8
158-7MARISTILL ST×3KillAyla Klingenbergset Audrey Clark+1.2
168-8ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Claudia Kasperski+1.7
178-9ILL STILL ST×3Attack errTaylor Miller+1.6
189-9ILL STMARISTAttack errAyla Klingenbergset Audrey Clark+1.3
199-10MARISTILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Audrey Clark+1.2
209-11ILL STILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+1.5
2110-11ILL STMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
2210-12MARISTILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.2
2311-12ILL STMARISTAttack errJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.2
2411-13MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.2
2511-14ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.+1.4
2612-14ILL STMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
2712-15MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.1
2812-16ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.aced Taylor Miller+1.2
2913-16ILL STMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.8
3014-16MARISTMARISTBlockedOliwia Caputablk Sarah Bumstead+1.4
3114-17MARISTILL ST×4KillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+1.2
3214-18ILL STILL ST×4AceIllinois St.+1.3
3314-19ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+0.9
3414-20ILL STILL ST×4KillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+0.6
3515-20ILL STMARIST×3Serve errIllinois St.+0.3
3616-20MARISTMARIST×3KillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
3717-20MARISTMARIST×3KillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
3817-21MARISTILL STBad setMallory Reck+1.0
3917-22ILL STILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+0.8
4018-22ILL STMARISTAttack errJillian Ferrillset Jillian Gregory+0.3
4118-23MARISTILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Audrey Clark+0.5
4218-24ILL STILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.3
4319-24ILL STMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas·
4419-25MARISTILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.1
Set 3
10-1MARISTILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.5
20-2ILL STILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+0.6
31-2ILL STMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
41-3MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+0.5
52-3ILL STMARISTKillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
63-3MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Illinois St.+0.7
73-4MARISTILL STServe errMarist+0.5
84-4ILL STMARISTKillMallory Reckset Sarah Bumstead+0.6
94-5MARISTILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+0.6
105-5ILL STMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
115-6MARISTILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+0.6
125-7ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.+0.7
136-7ILL STMARIST×3Bad setJillian Ferrill+0.5
147-7MARISTMARIST×3AceMarist+0.8
158-7MARISTMARIST×3AceMarist+0.9
168-8MARISTILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Audrey Clark+0.7
179-8ILL STMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
189-9MARISTILL ST×4KillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+0.7
199-10ILL STILL ST×4Attack errHeidi Chambers+0.9
209-11ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+0.8
219-12ILL STILL ST×4Attack errHeidi Chambers+0.7
2210-12ILL STMARISTKillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
2311-12MARISTMARISTAttack errAbby Reck+0.8
2411-13MARISTILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+0.7
2512-13ILL STMARISTServe errIllinois St.+0.7
2612-14MARISTILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs+0.7
2713-14ILL STMARISTAttack errOliwia Caputaset Audrey Clark+0.7
2814-14MARISTMARISTBlockedLogan Grevengoedblk Mallory Reck, Molly Malone+1.1
2914-15MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Samantha Bunch+0.8
3015-15ILL STMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.9
3116-15MARISTMARIST×3Attack errLogan Grevengoed+1.3
3217-15MARISTMARIST×3BlockedLogan Grevengoedblk Heidi Chambers, Molly Malone+1.4
3317-16MARISTILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Audrey Clark+0.9
3418-16ILL STMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.1
3518-17MARISTILL ST×4KillJillian Gregory+1.0
3618-18ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Gregory+1.4
3718-19ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Craggs+1.4
3818-20ILL STILL ST×4Attack errSarah Bumstead+1.3
3919-20ILL STMARISTKillTrinity Woods+0.9
4020-20MARISTMARISTKillSarah Bumstead+1.6
4120-21MARISTILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+1.3
4220-22ILL STILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Abby Reck+1.5
4321-22ILL STMARISTKillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
4421-23MARISTILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.3
4522-23ILL STMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
4622-24MARISTILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.5
4722-25ILL STILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Audrey Clark+1.0

Score shown after each rally, Marist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).