Win probability
Biggest swing: 3.5% to Rice — set 4, RICE 16-14 TCU. Attack error by Kinsley Young. TCU win probability 88% → 84%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Rice wins
TCU wins
- RICE break %
- 35.7% vs this opp
- TCU break %
- 44.9% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01
- 02TCUAce+3.3%
TCU ace on Sydnee Peterson
Set 4 · RICE 17-17 TCU · TCU 86% → 89%
- 03Sydnee PetersonKill+3.2%
Kill by Sydnee Peterson (set by Kaia Mateo)
Set 3 · RICE 10-9 TCU · RICE 18% → 21%
- 04Evan HendrixKill+3.2%
Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Reese Wilburn)
Set 4 · RICE 17-18 TCU · TCU 89% → 92%
- 05
- 06Jalyn Gibson&Kinsley YoungBlock+3.0%
Ashlyn Seay stuffed by Jalyn Gibson & Kinsley Young
Set 1 · RICE 21-23 TCU · TCU 89% → 92%
- 07
- 08Kinsley YoungKill+2.8%
Kill by Kinsley Young (set by Reese Wilburn)
Set 4 · RICE 17-19 TCU · TCU 92% → 95%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 17 | 6 | 44 | .250 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | |
| 4 | 9 | 2 | 21 | .333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3.5 | 12.5 | |
| 4 | 10 | 0 | 17 | .588 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | .286 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 | .063 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 21 | .190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 10.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | .154 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 57 | 20 | 145 | .255 | 52 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 87 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 21 | 4 | 45 | .378 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 23.5 | |
| 4 | 16 | 1 | 25 | .600 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3.5 | 19.5 | |
| 4 | 14 | 1 | 29 | .448 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 15.5 | |
| 4 | 13 | 9 | 34 | .118 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 14.5 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | .000 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -.333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 4.5 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 69 | 18 | 146 | .349 | 65 | 2 | 7 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 96 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
22-25
Set 2
25-21
Set 3
19-25
Set 4
21-25
Bars above the line = TCU leads, below = Rice leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rice
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58%11/19 | 40%6/15 |
| 2 | 59%10/17 | 21%3/14 |
| 3 | 67%10/15 | 23%3/13 |
| 4 | 35%8/23 | 55%11/20 |
| 5 | 58%7/12 | 33%4/12 |
| 6 | 78%7/9 | 50%7/14 |
| All | 56%53/95 | 39%34/88 |
TCU
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73%11/15 | 47%8/17 |
| 2 | 77%10/13 | 41%7/17 |
| 3 | 50%10/20 | 9%1/11 |
| 4 | 62%8/13 | 53%10/19 |
| 5 | 57%8/14 | 62%13/21 |
| 6 | 54%7/13 | 30%3/10 |
| All | 61%54/88 | 44%42/95 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
183 rallies
| # | RICE-TCU | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +1.1 |
| 2 | 0-2 | TCU | TCU×4 | Blocked | Ashlyn Seay | blk Kinsley Young, Evan Hendrix | +1.0 |
| 3 | 0-3 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.9 |
| 4 | 0-4 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 5 | 1-4 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +0.5 |
| 6 | 1-5 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.5 |
| 7 | 2-5 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +0.5 |
| 8 | 2-6 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.5 |
| 9 | 3-6 | TCU | RICE×8 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.5 |
| 10 | 4-6 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.9 |
| 11 | 5-6 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +1.1 |
| 12 | 6-6 | RICE | RICE×8 | Blocked | Becca Kelley | blk Kaia Mateo, Stephanie Gutierrez | +1.4 |
| 13 | 7-6 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | +1.6 | |
| 14 | 8-6 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +1.8 |
| 15 | 9-6 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +1.9 |
| 16 | 10-6 | RICE | RICE×8 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +2.0 |
| 17 | 10-7 | RICE | TCU | Serve err | Rice | +1.1 | |
| 18 | 11-7 | TCU | RICE | Serve err | TCU | +1.4 | |
| 19 | 12-7 | RICE | RICE | Blocked | Reese Robins | blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Ashlyn Seay | +2.0 |
| 20 | 12-8 | RICE | TCU×3 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Reese Wilburn | +1.0 |
| 21 | 12-9 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +1.7 |
| 22 | 12-10 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +1.9 |
| 23 | 13-10 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | +1.6 |
| 24 | 13-11 | RICE | TCU | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +1.2 | |
| 25 | 14-11 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | +1.6 |
| 26 | 15-11 | RICE | RICE | Attack err | De'Andrea McMillian | +2.3 | |
| 27 | 15-12 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +1.2 |
| 28 | 16-12 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | +1.6 |
| 29 | 16-13 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +1.2 |
| 30 | 17-13 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +1.7 |
| 31 | 17-14 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +1.2 |
| 32 | 18-14 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +1.7 |
| 33 | 18-15 | RICE | TCU×4 | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Reese Wilburn | +1.2 |
| 34 | 18-16 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Reese Robins | set Kaia Mateo | +2.2 |
| 35 | 18-17 | TCU | TCU×4 | Ace | TCU | aced Mari Furoyama | +2.5 |
| 36 | 18-18 | TCU | TCU×4 | Blocked | Sydnee Peterson | blk Reese Robins | +2.7 |
| 37 | 19-18 | TCU | RICE | Bad set | Reese Wilburn | +2.1 | |
| 38 | 19-19 | RICE | TCU | Serve err | Rice | +1.9 | |
| 39 | 20-19 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Zora Bello | +2.3 |
| 40 | 20-20 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +2.1 |
| 41 | 20-21 | TCU | TCU | Blocked | Ashlyn Seay | blk Jalyn Gibson | +3.2 |
| 42 | 21-21 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Evan Hendrix | +2.2 |
| 43 | 21-22 | RICE | TCU | Attack err | Kellen Dorotik | +2.4 | |
| 44 | 21-23 | TCU | TCU | Blocked | Ashlyn Seay | blk Jalyn Gibson, Kinsley Young | +3.0 |
| 45 | 22-23 | TCU | RICE | Serve err | TCU | +1.4 | |
| 46 | 22-24 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +2.2 |
| 47 | 22-25 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Alice Volpe | +1.5 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | RICE | RICE×3 | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +0.9 | |
| 2 | 2-0 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +1.0 |
| 3 | 3-0 | RICE | RICE×3 | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +1.1 | |
| 4 | 3-1 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 5 | 4-1 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Kellen Dorotik | set Kaia Mateo | +0.8 |
| 6 | 4-2 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 7 | 5-2 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +0.8 |
| 8 | 5-3 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 9 | 5-4 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Rosemary Archer | set Evan Hendrix | +1.1 |
| 10 | 6-4 | TCU | RICE | Serve err | TCU | +0.8 | |
| 11 | 6-5 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 12 | 7-5 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.9 |
| 13 | 7-6 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 14 | 8-6 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +0.9 |
| 15 | 8-7 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.8 |
| 16 | 9-7 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Mari Furoyama | +0.9 |
| 17 | 9-8 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.8 |
| 18 | 10-8 | TCU | RICE×3 | Serve err | TCU | +0.9 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | RICE | RICE×3 | Ace | Rice | aced Becca Kelley | +1.5 |
| 20 | 12-8 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Ashlyn Seay | set Kaia Mateo | +1.5 |
| 21 | 12-9 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.8 |
| 22 | 12-10 | TCU | TCU | Attack err | Kaia Mateo | +1.3 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | TCU | RICE | Serve err | TCU | +1.1 | |
| 24 | 13-11 | RICE | TCU×4 | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.9 |
| 25 | 13-12 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Jalyn Gibson | +1.4 |
| 26 | 13-13 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +1.4 |
| 27 | 13-14 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +1.3 |
| 28 | 14-14 | TCU | RICE | Serve err | TCU | +0.9 | |
| 29 | 14-15 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.9 |
| 30 | 15-15 | TCU | RICE | Serve err | TCU | +1.0 | |
| 31 | 15-16 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.9 |
| 32 | 16-16 | TCU | RICE×5 | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Sydnee Peterson | +1.0 |
| 33 | 17-16 | RICE | RICE×5 | Attack err | Rosemary Archer | +1.8 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | RICE | RICE×5 | Blocked | Evan Hendrix | blk Arissa Smith | +2.0 |
| 35 | 19-16 | RICE | RICE×5 | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Arissa Smith | +2.1 |
| 36 | 20-16 | RICE | RICE×5 | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +1.8 | |
| 37 | 20-17 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.8 |
| 38 | 21-17 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +1.3 |
| 39 | 21-18 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 40 | 22-18 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Kaia Mateo | +1.3 |
| 41 | 22-19 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.6 |
| 42 | 23-19 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +1.2 |
| 43 | 23-20 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.5 |
| 44 | 23-21 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | +1.4 | |
| 45 | 24-21 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +1.9 |
| 46 | 25-21 | RICE | RICE | Bad set | Molly McCarthy | +1.1 | |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +2.0 |
| 2 | 1-1 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +1.5 |
| 3 | 1-2 | RICE | TCU×4 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +1.4 |
| 4 | 1-3 | TCU | TCU×4 | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Kaia Mateo | +1.9 |
| 5 | 1-4 | TCU | TCU×4 | Attack err | Sydnee Peterson | +1.6 | |
| 6 | 1-5 | TCU | TCU×4 | Blocked | Amalia Simmons | blk Evan Hendrix | +1.3 |
| 7 | 2-5 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +0.9 |
| 8 | 2-6 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.9 |
| 9 | 3-6 | TCU | RICE | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +0.9 | |
| 10 | 3-7 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.9 |
| 11 | 4-7 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +0.9 |
| 12 | 4-8 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.9 |
| 13 | 5-8 | TCU | RICE×4 | Kill | Kaia Mateo | set Sydnee Peterson | +0.9 |
| 14 | 6-8 | RICE | RICE×4 | Blocked | Jalyn Gibson | blk Arissa Smith, Amalia Simmons | +1.7 |
| 15 | 7-8 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | +2.2 |
| 16 | 8-8 | RICE | RICE×4 | Ace | Rice | aced Alice Volpe | +2.6 |
| 17 | 8-9 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +1.7 |
| 18 | 9-9 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Kaia Mateo | +1.9 |
| 19 | 10-9 | RICE | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +3.2 |
| 20 | 10-10 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +2.0 |
| 21 | 11-10 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +2.3 |
| 22 | 11-11 | RICE | TCU×3 | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +2.1 |
| 23 | 11-12 | TCU | TCU×3 | Attack err | Amalia Simmons | +3.0 | |
| 24 | 11-13 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Alice Volpe | +2.7 |
| 25 | 12-13 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +1.8 |
| 26 | 12-14 | RICE | TCU | Blocked | Sydnee Peterson | blk Kinsley Young, Rosemary Archer | +1.8 |
| 27 | 13-14 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Kaia Mateo | set Jordan Hummel | +1.9 |
| 28 | 13-15 | RICE | TCU×3 | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +1.9 |
| 29 | 13-16 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +2.4 |
| 30 | 13-17 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Evan Hendrix | +1.8 |
| 31 | 14-17 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Bella Lopez | set Kaia Mateo | +1.0 |
| 32 | 14-18 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +1.2 |
| 33 | 14-19 | TCU | TCU | Blocked | Arissa Smith | blk Morgan Holloman, Becca Kelley | +1.2 |
| 34 | 15-19 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Bella Lopez | set Mari Furoyama | +0.6 |
| 35 | 15-20 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Rosemary Archer | +0.8 |
| 36 | 16-20 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Kaia Mateo | +0.5 |
| 37 | 16-21 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +0.7 |
| 38 | 16-22 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Rosemary Archer | +0.5 |
| 39 | 17-22 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Kaia Mateo | +0.2 |
| 40 | 17-23 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +0.3 |
| 41 | 18-23 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +0.1 |
| 42 | 18-24 | RICE | TCU | Serve err | Rice | +0.2 | |
| 43 | 19-24 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | · |
| 44 | 19-25 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Jalyn Gibson | +0.1 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | RICE | RICE | Blocked | Becca Kelley | blk Arissa Smith, Amalia Simmons | +1.8 |
| 2 | 1-1 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +1.1 |
| 3 | 2-1 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Kaia Mateo | +1.3 |
| 4 | 3-1 | RICE | RICE | Ace | Rice | aced Alice Volpe | +2.1 |
| 5 | 3-2 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Evan Hendrix | +1.2 |
| 6 | 4-2 | TCU | RICE×3 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +1.5 |
| 7 | 5-2 | RICE | RICE×3 | Attack err | Becca Kelley | +2.3 | |
| 8 | 6-2 | RICE | RICE×3 | Kill | Kaia Mateo | set Rosemary Archer | +2.4 |
| 9 | 6-3 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Alice Volpe | +1.3 |
| 10 | 7-3 | TCU | RICE×4 | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +1.7 | |
| 11 | 8-3 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Bella Lopez | set Kaia Mateo | +2.5 |
| 12 | 9-3 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +2.3 |
| 13 | 10-3 | RICE | RICE×4 | Blocked | Evan Hendrix | blk Kaia Mateo, Arissa Smith | +2.1 |
| 14 | 10-4 | RICE | TCU×3 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | +1.0 | |
| 15 | 10-5 | TCU | TCU×3 | Blocked | Sydnee Peterson | blk Kinsley Young, Becca Kelley | +1.8 |
| 16 | 10-6 | TCU | TCU×3 | Blocked | Bella Lopez | blk Reese Robins | +2.0 |
| 17 | 11-6 | TCU | RICE | Attack err | Evan Hendrix | +1.8 | |
| 18 | 11-7 | RICE | TCU×3 | Attack err | Amalia Simmons | +1.3 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | TCU | TCU×3 | Attack err | Amalia Simmons | +2.3 | |
| 20 | 11-9 | TCU | TCU×3 | Kill | Reese Robins | set Reese Wilburn | +2.4 |
| 21 | 12-9 | TCU | RICE | Blocked | Becca Kelley | blk Arissa Smith, Bella Lopez | +2.0 |
| 22 | 12-10 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Reese Robins | set Reese Wilburn | +1.6 |
| 23 | 12-11 | TCU | TCU | Kill | Morgan Holloman | set Rosemary Archer | +2.6 |
| 24 | 13-11 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +2.1 |
| 25 | 13-12 | RICE | TCU | Serve err | Rice | +1.7 | |
| 26 | 13-13 | TCU | TCU | Attack err | Amalia Simmons | +2.7 | |
| 27 | 14-13 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Sydnee Peterson | set Kaia Mateo | +2.0 |
| 28 | 14-14 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Jalyn Gibson | set Rosemary Archer | +1.8 |
| 29 | 15-14 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Stephanie Gutierrez | set Kaia Mateo | +2.2 |
| 30 | 16-14 | RICE | RICE | Attack err | Kinsley Young | +3.5 | |
| 31 | 16-15 | RICE | TCU | Serve err | Rice | +2.0 | |
| 32 | 17-15 | TCU | RICE | Kill | Bella Lopez | set Kaia Mateo | +2.6 |
| 33 | 17-16 | RICE | TCU×9 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Rosemary Archer | +2.1 |
| 34 | 17-17 | TCU | TCU×9 | Ace | TCU | aced Sydnee Peterson | +3.3 |
| 35 | 17-18 | TCU | TCU×9 | Kill | Evan Hendrix | set Reese Wilburn | +3.2 |
| 36 | 17-19 | TCU | TCU×9 | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Reese Wilburn | +2.8 |
| 37 | 17-20 | TCU | TCU×9 | Kill | Bella Lopez | +2.1 | |
| 38 | 17-21 | TCU | TCU×9 | Attack err | Bella Lopez | +1.4 | |
| 39 | 17-22 | TCU | TCU×9 | Kill | Becca Kelley | set Alice Volpe | +0.8 |
| 40 | 17-23 | TCU | TCU×9 | Blocked | Sydnee Peterson | blk Kinsley Young, Becca Kelley | +0.3 |
| 41 | 17-24 | TCU | TCU×9 | Blocked | Arissa Smith | blk Reese Robins, Kinsley Young | +0.1 |
| 42 | 18-24 | TCU | RICE×4 | Kill | Arissa Smith | set Kaia Mateo | · |
| 43 | 19-24 | RICE | RICE×4 | Blocked | Becca Kelley | blk Arissa Smith, Amalia Simmons | · |
| 44 | 20-24 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Amalia Simmons | set Sydnee Peterson | +0.1 |
| 45 | 21-24 | RICE | RICE×4 | Kill | Arissa Smith | +0.3 | |
| 46 | 21-25 | RICE | TCU | Kill | Kinsley Young | set Reese Wilburn | +0.5 |
Score shown after each rally, Rice first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).