Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Rice def. North Texas 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Rice 70.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Rice won at North Texas 3-2 (27-25, 25-21, 23-25, 17-25, 15-13) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Rice's Ashlyn Seay led with 23 kills, and Jordan Hummel added 24 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set12345Sets
RICE27252317153
NO TEX25212525132

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Ashlyn Seay had 23 kills as Rice won in five.

The match turned twice; each line shows Rice's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Rice went in as RallyIQ's 70% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Rice 21–23 North Texas

    3 straight Rice points turned a 21–23 deficit into a 24–23 lead.

    Rice 56% → 75%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Rice 7–8 North Texas

    Rice scored 4 straight to turn a 7–8 deficit into an 11–8 lead. The match swung to Rice.

    Rice 46% → 89%

North Texas above 50Rice belowMax swing 16.2%

RiceNorth Texas

Sideout %
Rice 60.0·North Texas 61.3
Break %
Rice 38.7·North Texas 40.0
Hitting
Rice .224·North Texas .220
Longest run
Rice 6·North Texas 5

Ashlyn Seay
23 kills on .313, 24 points; 3 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

North Texas above 50 · Rice below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+16.2% RICErally 216 · set 5

Biggest swing: 16.2% to Rice — set 5, RICE 15-13 NO TEX. Kill by Aaliyah Smith (set by Savannah Skopal). NO TEX win probability 16% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

RICE 72.0%28.0% NO TEX

Rice wins

3-0
24.7%
3-1
27.6%
3-2
19.7%

North Texas wins

3-0
5.2%
3-1
9.7%
3-2
13.1%
RICE break %
42.7% vs this opp
NO TEX break %
38.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Aaliyah SmithKill+16.2%

    Kill by Aaliyah Smith (set by Savannah Skopal)

    Set 5 · RICE 15-13 NO TEX · RICE 84% → 100%

  2. 02
    Aaliyah SmithKill+12.8%

    Kill by Aaliyah Smith (set by Savannah Skopal)

    Set 5 · RICE 9-8 NO TEX · RICE 55% → 67%

  3. 03
    Jahniya JacksonAttack error+11.8%

    Attack error by Jahniya Jackson

    Set 5 · RICE 10-8 NO TEX · RICE 67% → 79%

  4. 04
    Jocelyn JourdanKill+11.7%

    Kill by Jocelyn Jourdan (set by Olivia Branum)

    Set 5 · RICE 5-7 NO TEX · NO TEX 52% → 63%

  5. 05
    Amalia SimmonsKill+11.6%

    Kill by Amalia Simmons (set by Savannah Skopal)

    Set 5 · RICE 7-7 NO TEX · RICE 44% → 55%

  6. 06
    Ashlyn SeayKill+9.9%

    Kill by Ashlyn Seay (set by Jordan Hummel)

    Set 5 · RICE 4-4 NO TEX · RICE 47% → 57%

  7. 07

    Aaliyah Smith stuffed by Lillian Croshaw & Loredana Fouonji

    Set 5 · RICE 14-13 NO TEX · NO TEX 6% → 16%

  8. 08

    Ace by Jahniya Jackson

    Set 5 · RICE 1-3 NO TEX · NO TEX 49% → 59%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Riceaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513329.3450003002114
57217.29400010153.510.5
55733-.06112381052.59.5
55219.15800220052.57.5
5205.4004915100010.53.5
5000–0001010000
523848.3130000002124
5000–2222420002
5000–000200000
5000–001310000
26113.385001310006
1011-1.000100000000
1000–001000000
1000–200000000
Team totals6124165.2245551566812011107
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517643.25611111100018
515732.2500002006318
57119.3161313014313
510118.50000030132.512.5
58637.05401210110110
5000–33011500000
5000–7221500002
5001.0001914200001
42311-.09100020010.52.5
4000–001200000
2213.333000100002
Team totals6125164.2206181266531410109

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 RICE · NO TEX 5

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 3 RICENO TEX 3

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 6 RICENO TEX 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 5 RICENO TEX 5

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 2 RICENO TEX 4

Set 5

15-13

Longest run 4 RICENO TEX 3

Bars above the line = North Texas leads, below = Rice leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rice

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%14/26
56%14/25
2
58%11/19
19%3/16
3
61%11/18
15%2/13
4
91%10/11
50%10/20
5
59%10/17
38%6/16
6
53%10/19
38%6/16
All
60%66/110
39%41/106

North Texas

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%14/23
56%15/27
2
92%12/13
28%5/18
3
50%10/20
50%11/22
4
71%10/14
23%3/13
5
50%10/20
33%5/15
6
56%9/16
33%5/15
All
61%65/106
40%44/110

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

216 rallies

#RICE-NO TEXSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NO TEXNO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Dakota Mitchell+2.3
21-1NO TEXRICEBlockedJahniya Jacksonblk Ellie Schneider, Amalia Simmons+1.5
31-2RICENO TEXBlockedSydnee Petersonblk Lillian Croshaw, Addison Achilles+1.7
42-2NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+1.6
52-3RICENO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+1.7
62-4NO TEXNO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Olivia Branum+2.5
73-4NO TEXRICE×3Serve errNorth Texas+1.6
84-4RICERICE×3AceRice+2.4
95-4RICERICE×3KillStephanie Gutierrezset Savannah Skopal+2.4
105-5RICENO TEXAttack errStephanie Gutierrez+1.7
116-5NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+1.7
126-6RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Olivia Branum+1.7
137-6NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+1.7
148-6RICERICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+2.4
158-7RICENO TEX×3KillReagan Bedellset Olivia Branum+1.6
168-8NO TEXNO TEX×3BlockedAmalia Simmonsblk Addison Achilles, Lillian Croshaw+2.6
178-9NO TEXNO TEX×3KillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+2.9
189-9NO TEXRICEKillEllie Schneiderset Savannah Skopal+1.9
1910-9RICERICEBlockedLillian Croshawblk Sydnee Peterson, Ellie Schneider+2.8
2010-10RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+2.0
2111-10NO TEXRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+2.0
2211-11RICENO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+2.0
2312-11NO TEXRICEBlockedLillian Croshawblk Sydnee Peterson, Stephanie Gutierrez+2.0
2412-12RICENO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Sidney Soria+2.1
2513-12NO TEXRICEKillStephanie Gutierrezset Savannah Skopal+2.1
2613-13RICENO TEXServe errRice+2.2
2713-14NO TEXNO TEXAttack errAshlyn Seay+3.5
2814-14NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+2.3
2914-15RICENO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Olivia Branum+2.6
3014-16NO TEXNO TEXKillJocelyn Jourdanset Dakota Mitchell+3.8
3115-16NO TEXRICE×3KillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+2.3
3216-16RICERICE×3KillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+3.7
3317-16RICERICE×3Attack errJocelyn Jourdan+3.8
3417-17RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Olivia Branum+2.7
3517-18NO TEXNO TEXBlockedEllie Schneiderblk Addison Achilles+4.3
3618-18NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+2.9
3718-19RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+3.3
3819-19NO TEXRICEKillSydnee Petersonset Savannah Skopal+3.1
3919-20RICENO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+3.6
4019-21NO TEXNO TEXAceNorth Texasaced Jordan Hummel+5.2
4120-21NO TEXRICEKillStephanie Gutierrezset Savannah Skopal+2.9
4220-22RICENO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Sidney Soria+4.1
4321-22NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+3.1
4421-23RICENO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Olivia Branum+4.6
4522-23NO TEXRICE×3KillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+3.1
4623-23RICERICE×3KillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+7.2
4724-23RICERICE×3Serve errRice+8.8
4824-24RICENO TEXServe errRice+6.1
4925-24NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+6.1
5025-25RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Olivia Branum+6.1
5126-25NO TEXRICEKillEllie Schneiderset Savannah Skopal+6.1
5227-25RICERICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+8.0
Set 2
11-0RICERICEKillEllie Schneiderset Savannah Skopal+1.8
21-1RICENO TEXServe errRice+1.3
31-2NO TEXNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Dakota Mitchell+1.9
42-2NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+1.3
52-3RICENO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+1.4
62-4NO TEXNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+2.1
73-4NO TEXRICEKillStephanie Gutierrezset Savannah Skopal+1.3
83-5RICENO TEXBlockedAshlyn Seayblk Lillian Croshaw, Loredana Fouonji+1.5
94-5NO TEXRICEAttack errJocelyn Jourdan+1.4
104-6RICENO TEXServe errRice+1.5
115-6NO TEXRICEAttack errReagan Bedell+1.4
125-7RICENO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Olivia Branum+1.6
136-7NO TEXRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+1.4
146-8RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Olivia Branum+1.6
156-9NO TEXNO TEXAttack errSydnee Peterson+2.3
167-9NO TEXRICE×6KillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+1.4
178-9RICERICE×6AceRice+2.2
189-9RICERICE×6AceRice+2.3
1910-9RICERICE×6BlockedLillian Croshawblk Sydnee Peterson, Stephanie Gutierrez+2.3
2011-9RICERICE×6Attack errReagan Bedell+2.1
2112-9RICERICE×6BlockedReagan Bedellblk Amalia Simmons, Stephanie Gutierrez+1.9
2212-10RICENO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+1.2
2312-11NO TEXNO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+2.1
2413-11NO TEXRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+1.6
2513-12RICENO TEXServe errRice+1.5
2613-13NO TEXNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Sidney Soria+2.5
2714-13NO TEXRICEKillSavannah Skopalset Addison Achilles+1.8
2815-13RICERICEAceRiceaced Jahniya Jackson+2.5
2915-14RICENO TEXBlockedAshlyn Seayblk Loredana Fouonji+1.6
3016-14NO TEXRICEAttack errLoredana Fouonji+1.8
3117-14RICERICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+2.3
3217-15RICENO TEXAttack errSydnee Peterson+1.4
3318-15NO TEXRICE×4Serve errNorth Texas+1.6
3419-15RICERICE×4AceRiceaced Reagan Bedell+1.8
3520-15RICERICE×4BlockedJocelyn Jourdanblk Ellie Schneider, Ashlyn Seay+1.2
3621-15RICERICE×4KillEllie Schneiderset Savannah Skopal+0.7
3721-16RICENO TEXServe errRice+0.3
3822-16NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+0.4
3922-17RICENO TEX×3KillAlexa Hayesset Olivia Branum+0.2
4022-18NO TEXNO TEX×3KillReagan Bedellset Dakota Mitchell+0.5
4122-19NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errAmalia Simmons+1.0
4223-19NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+1.2
4323-20RICENO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+0.5
4423-21NO TEXNO TEXAceNorth Texasaced Mari Furoyama+1.6
4524-21NO TEXRICEAttack errLillian Croshaw+2.0
4625-21RICERICEBlockedJahniya Jacksonblk Savannah Skopal, Stephanie Gutierrez+1.0
Set 3
10-1NO TEXNO TEX×3KillJahniya Jacksonset Dakota Mitchell+1.1
20-2NO TEXNO TEX×3KillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+1.1
30-3NO TEXNO TEX×3KillLillian Croshawset Dakota Mitchell+1.2
41-3NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+0.7
52-3RICERICEBlockedLillian Croshawblk Sydnee Peterson, Stephanie Gutierrez+1.1
62-4RICENO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+0.8
73-4NO TEXRICEKillSydnee Petersonset Savannah Skopal+0.8
83-5RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+0.9
93-6NO TEXNO TEXAceNorth Texasaced Jordan Hummel+1.2
104-6NO TEXRICEAttack errReagan Bedell+0.8
115-6RICERICEKillAshlyn Seayset Sydnee Peterson+1.2
125-7RICENO TEXKillAlexa Hayesset Olivia Branum+0.9
136-7NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+0.8
146-8RICENO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Olivia Branum+0.9
156-9NO TEXNO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Olivia Branum+1.3
167-9NO TEXRICE×3KillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+0.8
178-9RICERICE×3Bad setOlivia Branum+1.3
189-9RICERICE×3Attack errJahniya Jackson+1.3
199-10RICENO TEXServe errRice+1.0
2010-10NO TEXRICEAttack errJahniya Jackson+0.9
2110-11RICENO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Reagan Bedell+1.0
2211-11NO TEXRICEKillEllie Schneiderset Savannah Skopal+1.0
2311-12RICENO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+1.1
2412-12NO TEXRICEKillSavannah Skopalset Sidney Soria+1.0
2512-13RICENO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Sidney Soria+1.1
2612-14NO TEXNO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Olivia Branum*+1.6
2713-14NO TEXRICE×5KillSydnee Petersonset Savannah Skopal+1.0
2814-14RICERICE×5KillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+1.6
2915-14RICERICE×5Attack errAlexa Hayes+1.6
3016-14RICERICE×5KillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+1.5
3117-14RICERICE×5KillAshlyn Seay+1.3
3217-15RICENO TEXServe errRice+0.8
3318-15NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+0.9
3418-16RICENO TEX×3KillLoredana Fouonjiset Olivia Branum+0.8
3518-17NO TEXNO TEX×3AceNorth Texasaced Declan Eastman+1.5
3618-18NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errAshlyn Seay+1.9
3719-18NO TEXRICEBad setAlexa Hayes+1.4
3819-19RICENO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Olivia Branum+1.4
3920-19NO TEXRICE×3KillSydnee Petersonset Savannah Skopal+1.5
4021-19RICERICE×3KillSydnee Petersonset Savannah Skopal+2.0
4122-19RICERICE×3BlockedLillian Croshawblk Ellie Schneider, Sydnee Peterson+1.6
4222-20RICENO TEX×5KillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+0.7
4322-21NO TEXNO TEX×5KillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+1.8
4422-22NO TEXNO TEX×5Attack errEllie Schneider+2.7
4522-23NO TEXNO TEX×5BlockedSydnee Petersonblk Addison Achilles, Lillian Croshaw+3.6
4622-24NO TEXNO TEX×5KillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+3.6
4723-24NO TEXRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+1.4
4823-25RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+3.5
Set 4
11-0RICERICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+2.6
21-1RICENO TEXBlockedAshlyn Seayblk Addison Achilles, Lillian Croshaw+1.8
32-1NO TEXRICEKillEllie Schneiderset Savannah Skopal+1.8
42-2RICENO TEX×4Serve errRice+1.9
52-3NO TEXNO TEX×4KillLoredana Fouonjiset Sidney Soria+2.9
62-4NO TEXNO TEX×4AceAddison Achillesaced Sydnee Peterson+3.0
72-5NO TEXNO TEX×4KillLillian Croshawset Addison Achilles+3.1
83-5NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+1.9
94-5RICERICEAttack errReagan Bedell+2.9
104-6RICENO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+2.3
115-6NO TEXRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+2.1
125-7RICENO TEXBlockedSydnee Petersonblk Jocelyn Jourdan, Loredana Fouonji+2.3
136-7NO TEXRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+2.1
147-7RICERICEServe errRice+3.1
157-8RICENO TEXAttack errSydnee Peterson+2.3
168-8NO TEXRICEAttack errJahniya Jackson+2.2
178-9RICENO TEX×4Serve errRice+2.4
188-10NO TEXNO TEX×4KillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+3.6
198-11NO TEXNO TEX×4Serve errNorth Texas+3.6
208-12NO TEXNO TEX×4BlockedStephanie Gutierrezblk Jahniya Jackson+3.4
219-12NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Kellen Dorotik+1.9
229-13RICENO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+2.4
2310-13NO TEXRICEKillEllie Schneiderset Zora Bello+2.0
2410-14RICENO TEXServe errRice+2.5
2511-14NO TEXRICEBlockedReagan Bedellblk Ellie Schneider, Ashlyn Seay+2.0
2611-15RICENO TEX×3KillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+2.6
2711-16NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errSydnee Peterson+3.1
2811-17NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errAmalia Simmons+2.4
2912-17NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+1.1
3013-17RICERICEKillAaliyah Smith+2.2
3113-18RICENO TEXKillLoredana Fouonjiset Olivia Branum+2.2
3214-18NO TEXRICEKillAaliyah Smithset Jordan Hummel+1.4
3314-19RICENO TEX×3KillJahniya Jacksonset Dakota Mitchell+2.1
3414-20NO TEXNO TEX×3AceDakota Mitchellaced Aaliyah Smith+2.1
3514-21NO TEXNO TEX×3Attack errKellen Dorotik+1.2
3615-21NO TEXRICEServe errDakota Mitchell+0.4
3715-22RICENO TEXServe errRice+0.7
3816-22NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Zora Bello+0.3
3916-23RICENO TEXServe errRice+0.5
4017-23NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+0.1
4117-24RICENO TEXKillReagan Bedellset Sidney Soria+0.3
4217-25NO TEXNO TEXAttack errAshlyn Seay+1.2
Set 5
10-1NO TEXNO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+9.0
21-1NO TEXRICEAttack errLillian Croshaw+6.0
31-2RICENO TEXServe errRice+6.6
41-3NO TEXNO TEXAceJahniya Jackson+9.8
52-3NO TEXRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+6.2
62-4RICENO TEXKillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+7.2
73-4NO TEXRICEKillStephanie Gutierrezset Savannah Skopal+6.4
84-4RICERICEKillAshlyn Seayset Jordan Hummel+9.9
94-5RICENO TEXAttack errAshlyn Seay+7.5
105-5NO TEXRICEServe errNorth Texas+7.1
115-6RICENO TEXAttack errAshlyn Seay+7.9
125-7NO TEXNO TEXKillJocelyn Jourdanset Olivia Branum+11.7
136-7NO TEXRICEKillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+7.2
147-7RICERICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+11.6
157-8RICENO TEXServe errRice+9.0
168-8NO TEXRICE×4KillAshlyn Seayset Savannah Skopal+8.5
179-8RICERICE×4KillAaliyah Smithset Savannah Skopal+12.8
1810-8RICERICE×4Attack errJahniya Jackson+11.8
1911-8RICERICE×4BlockedAddison Achillesblk Ellie Schneider+9.6
2011-9RICENO TEXKillJahniya Jacksonset Olivia Branum+4.9
2112-9NO TEXRICEKillAmalia Simmonsset Savannah Skopal+6.8
2213-9RICERICEKillAaliyah Smith+6.1
2313-10RICENO TEXKillLillian Croshawset Sidney Soria+1.9
2414-10NO TEXRICEKillAaliyah Smithset Savannah Skopal+3.6
2514-11RICENO TEX×3KillAddison Achillesset Sidney Soria+1.1
2614-12NO TEXNO TEX×3AceAddison Achilles+3.8
2714-13NO TEXNO TEX×3BlockedAaliyah Smithblk Lillian Croshaw, Loredana Fouonji+9.9
2815-13NO TEXRICEKillAaliyah Smithset Savannah Skopal+16.2

Score shown after each rally, Rice first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).