Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Houston def. Cincinnati 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Cincinnati 60.4% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 6:26 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Houston beat visiting Cincinnati 3-1 (23-25, 25-21, 25-21, 25-20) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Houston's Noemi Despaigne led with 17 kills, and Gillian Pitts added 13 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
CINCY252121201
HOU232525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Houston held on against Cincinnati.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Houston's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, Cincinnati was RallyIQ's 60% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Cincinnati 22–22 Houston

    Cincinnati closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0.

    Houston 42% → 24%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Cincinnati 9–6 Houston

    6 straight Houston points turned a 6–9 deficit into a 12–9 lead. The match swung to Houston.

    Houston 32% → 55%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 3 · Cincinnati 13–12 Houston

    Houston scored 4 straight to turn a 12–13 deficit into a 16–13 lead. The match swung to Houston.

    Houston 39% → 57%

Houston above 50Cincinnati belowMax swing 9.7%

CincinnatiHouston

Sideout %
Cincinnati 56.7·Houston 63.6
Break %
Cincinnati 36.4·Houston 43.3
Hitting
Cincinnati .236·Houston .288
Longest run
Cincinnati 4·Houston 6

Sydney Jones
13 kills on .189, 14 points; 2 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Houston above 50 · Cincinnati below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.7% CINCYrally 185 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.7% to Cincinnati — set 1, CINCY 24-23 HOU. Cincinnati ace. HOU win probability 43% → 33%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CINCY 52.0%48.0% HOU

Cincinnati wins

3-0
13.3%
3-1
19.6%
3-2
19.1%

Houston wins

3-0
11.7%
3-1
17.9%
3-2
18.4%
CINCY break %
42.1% vs this opp
HOU break %
41.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    CincinnatiAce+9.7%

    Cincinnati ace

    Set 1 · CINCY 24-23 HOU · CINCY 57% → 67%

  2. 02

    Noemi Despaigne stuffed by Ligia Williams & Nina Scrucca

    Set 1 · CINCY 25-23 HOU · CINCY 67% → 76%

  3. 03

    Kill by Ligia Williams (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 1 · CINCY 22-22 HOU · CINCY 51% → 58%

  4. 04

    Kill by Tara Greenberry (set by Shannon Dworaczyk)

    Set 1 · CINCY 20-22 HOU · HOU 46% → 52%

  5. 05
    CincinnatiService error+5.8%

    Cincinnati service error

    Set 1 · CINCY 22-23 HOU · HOU 42% → 48%

  6. 06

    Nina Scrucca stuffed by Noemi Despaigne & Alexis Roberson

    Set 4 · CINCY 13-15 HOU · HOU 75% → 81%

  7. 07

    Kill by Ligia Williams (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 1 · CINCY 23-23 HOU · CINCY 52% → 57%

  8. 08
    HoustonAce+5.3%

    Houston ace on Andrea Simovski

    Set 4 · CINCY 13-16 HOU · HOU 81% → 86%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414346.23914241010.518.5
411428.25000210110112
49318.33300020031.510.5
45213.23100250031.56.5
4125-.200000300212
4114.0001801600001
415634.26510000031.516.5
4000–2723900002
4000–6011520000
1000–000000000
Team totals5621148.23653611544112787
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415334.353033110031.519.5
417742.23830110202118
413637.1890001002114
49014.6432002016413
44013.308000100215
4013-.3334201120010.50.5
4103.3338011300001
4000–110920001
4000–001100000
Team totals5917146.2885647606116998

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 CINCY · HOU 6

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 CINCYHOU 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 CINCYHOU 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 CINCYHOU 6

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 3 CINCYHOU 4

Bars above the line = Houston leads, below = Cincinnati leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cincinnati

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
55%12/22
2
58%11/19
8%1/12
3
75%9/12
27%4/15
4
40%8/20
43%6/14
5
73%8/11
50%8/16
6
53%8/15
11%1/9
All
57%55/97
36%32/88

Houston

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
40%6/15
2
79%11/14
48%10/21
3
63%10/16
27%4/15
4
47%8/17
53%9/17
5
80%8/10
38%5/13
6
62%8/13
50%8/16
All
64%56/88
43%42/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

185 rallies

#CINCY-HOUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0HOUCINCYKillLilian Entenmannset Andi Spies+1.7
21-1CINCYHOU×3Attack errAndi Spies+1.7
31-2HOUHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.5
41-3HOUHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Gillian Pitts+2.6
52-3HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+1.8
62-4CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+1.9
73-4HOUCINCYAttack errNoemi Despaigne+1.8
83-5CINCYHOU×4Attack errNina Scrucca+2.0
93-6HOUHOU×4BlockedNina Scruccablk Alexis Roberson, Noemi Despaigne+2.7
103-7HOUHOU×4Bad setSydney Nolan+2.5
113-8HOUHOU×4KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.3
124-8HOUCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.4
134-9CINCYHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.7
145-9HOUCINCYAttack errSydney Jones+1.4
155-10CINCYHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.7
166-10HOUCINCYServe errHouston+1.4
176-11CINCYHOUKillSydney Jonesset Noemi Despaigne+1.7
187-11HOUCINCYKillAudrey Romeset Andi Spies+1.4
197-12CINCYHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.7
207-13HOUHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Gillian Pitts+2.0
218-13HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+1.1
228-14CINCYHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.4
239-14HOUCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.1
2410-14CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Lily Barron+1.9
2511-14CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Lily Barron+2.4
2611-15CINCYHOU×3Serve errCincinnati+2.1
2711-16HOUHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.5
2811-17HOUHOU×3AceHoustonaced Viktoria Ninova+1.9
2912-17HOUCINCY×4KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+0.9
3013-17CINCYCINCY×4KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.8
3114-17CINCYCINCY×4KillAudrey Romeset Sydney Nolan+2.4
3215-17CINCYCINCY×4Attack errNoemi Despaigne+3.1
3315-18CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+2.8
3416-18HOUCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+2.2
3517-18CINCYCINCYBlockedSydney Jonesblk Lilian Entenmann, Audrey Rome+3.9
3617-19CINCYHOUAttack errAudrey Rome+3.3
3718-19HOUCINCYAttack errSydney Jones+2.9
3819-19CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+4.8
3919-20CINCYHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.9
4020-20HOUCINCYKillAudrey Romeset Andi Spies+3.7
4120-21CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+4.3
4220-22HOUHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+5.9
4321-22HOUCINCYBlockedKamille Gibsonblk Ligia Williams, Sydney Nolan+3.3
4422-22CINCYCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+6.5
4522-23CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+5.8
4623-23HOUCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+5.4
4724-23CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnati+9.7
4825-23CINCYCINCY×3BlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Ligia Williams, Nina Scrucca+9.2
Set 2
10-1CINCYHOU×4KillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.6
20-2HOUHOU×4KillNoemi Despaigneset Gillian Pitts+2.3
30-3HOUHOU×4AceHoustonaced Sydney Nolan+2.3
40-4HOUHOU×4Attack errLilian Entenmann+2.2
51-4HOUCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+1.4
62-4CINCYCINCYAttack errNoemi Despaigne+2.1
72-5CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Lily Barron+1.7
83-5HOUCINCYAttack errKamille Gibson+1.5
94-5CINCYCINCYBlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Nina Scrucca, Audrey Rome+2.3
104-6CINCYHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.8
115-6HOUCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.7
126-6CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Noemi Despaigne+2.5
137-6CINCYCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.5
147-7CINCYHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.8
157-8HOUHOU×3KillSydney Jonesset Noemi Despaigne+2.7
167-9HOUHOU×3Attack errAndrea Simovski+2.7
178-9HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.8
188-10CINCYHOUKillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.0
199-10HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.9
209-11CINCYHOUBlockedLilian Entenmannblk Tara Greenberry, Sydney Jones+2.1
2110-11HOUCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+1.9
2211-11CINCYCINCYKillLigia Williams+2.9
2311-12CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+2.2
2412-12HOUCINCYAttack errNoemi Despaigne+2.1
2512-13CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.3
2613-13HOUCINCYServe errHouston+2.2
2714-13CINCYCINCYKillAudrey Romeset Kate Lijic+3.2
2814-14CINCYHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Noemi Despaigne+2.3
2915-14HOUCINCYServe errHouston+2.4
3015-15CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.4
3116-15HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.5
3217-15CINCYCINCYBlockedShannon Dworaczykblk Andrea Simovski+3.4
3317-16CINCYHOU×4KillSydney Jonesset Sydney Nolan+2.2
3417-17HOUHOU×4KillSydney Jonesset Tara Greenberry+3.7
3517-18HOUHOU×4BlockedNina Scruccablk Sydney Jones, Tara Greenberry+4.1
3617-19HOUHOU×4BlockedLigia Williamsblk Tara Greenberry+4.2
3718-19HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.6
3818-20CINCYHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.2
3919-20HOUCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+2.7
4019-21CINCYHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.5
4120-21HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+2.8
4220-22CINCYHOU×3KillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.9
4320-23HOUHOU×3KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.3
4420-24HOUHOU×3KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.5
4521-24HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+0.5
4621-25CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Gillian Pitts+1.2
Set 3
10-1HOUHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.4
21-1HOUCINCYServe errHouston+2.4
31-2CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+2.5
42-2HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+2.4
53-2CINCYCINCYBlockedNoemi Despaigneblk Ligia Williams, Nina Scrucca+3.4
63-3CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+2.5
74-3HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.5
84-4CINCYHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.5
94-5HOUHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.7
105-5HOUCINCY×4KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.6
116-5CINCYCINCY×4KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+3.7
127-5CINCYCINCY×4KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+3.6
138-5CINCYCINCY×4Bad setGillian Pitts+3.3
148-6CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.2
159-6HOUCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.4
169-7CINCYHOU×6Serve errCincinnati+2.3
179-8HOUHOU×6Attack errAndrea Simovski+3.6
189-9HOUHOU×6KillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.0
199-10HOUHOU×6Attack errAudrey Rome+4.3
209-11HOUHOU×6BlockedAndrea Simovskiblk Tara Greenberry, Shannon Dworaczyk+4.3
219-12HOUHOU×6Bad setViktoria Ninova+4.2
2210-12HOUCINCY×4KillAndrea Simovskiset Andi Spies+2.6
2311-12CINCYCINCY×4Attack errSydney Jones+4.2
2412-12CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+4.5
2513-12CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+4.6
2613-13CINCYHOU×4KillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.3
2713-14HOUHOU×4BlockedSydney Nolanblk Tara Greenberry, Kamille Gibson+5.0
2813-15HOUHOU×4KillSydney Jonesset Gillian Pitts+5.0
2913-16HOUHOU×4KillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.8
3014-16HOUCINCYBlockedSydney Jonesblk Audrey Rome, Lilian Entenmann+2.9
3114-17CINCYHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.6
3214-18HOUHOUBad setSydney Nolan+4.3
3315-18HOUCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Andi Spies+2.3
3415-19CINCYHOUAttack errSydney Nolan+3.1
3515-20HOUHOUKillKamille Gibson+3.2
3616-20HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.4
3716-21CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.2
3816-22HOUHOUAceHoustonaced Viktoria Ninova+1.8
3917-22HOUCINCYServe errHouston+0.5
4018-22CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Nina Scrucca+1.4
4118-23CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.8
4219-23HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+0.7
4319-24CINCYHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.4
4420-24HOUCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+0.3
4521-24CINCYCINCYAttack errSydney Jones+1.1
4621-25CINCYHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+1.9
Set 4
11-0CINCYCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+3.6
22-0CINCYCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Viktoria Ninova+3.5
33-0CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Noemi Despaigne+3.3
43-1CINCYHOUBlockedNina Scruccablk Kamille Gibson, Tara Greenberry+2.2
54-1HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.4
64-2CINCYHOUKillGillian Pittsset Tara Greenberry+2.3
75-2HOUCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.4
85-3CINCYHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.3
96-3HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.5
106-4CINCYHOU×4KillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+2.4
116-5HOUHOU×4Attack errLigia Williams+3.7
126-6HOUHOU×4KillAlexis Robersonset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.1
136-7HOUHOU×4Attack errAndrea Simovski+4.3
147-7HOUCINCYServe errHouston+3.0
157-8CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+3.2
168-8HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+3.1
178-9CINCYHOUKillTara Greenberryset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.3
188-10HOUHOUAttack errSydney Nolan+4.6
199-10HOUCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+3.1
2010-10CINCYCINCY×3Attack errKamille Gibson+4.6
2111-10CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnati+4.7
2211-11CINCYHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.4
2311-12HOUHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+5.0
2412-12HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+3.5
2512-13CINCYHOUServe errCincinnati+3.8
2613-13HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+3.7
2713-14CINCYHOU×3Attack errLigia Williams+3.9
2813-15HOUHOU×3BlockedNina Scruccablk Noemi Despaigne, Alexis Roberson+5.6
2913-16HOUHOU×3AceHoustonaced Andrea Simovski+5.3
3014-16HOUCINCYServe errHouston+3.2
3114-17CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Gillian Pitts+3.9
3215-17HOUCINCYKillAndi Spiesset Andi Spies+3.2
3315-18CINCYHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.1
3416-18HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+3.3
3516-19CINCYHOUKillSydney Jonesset Shannon Dworaczyk+4.3
3616-20HOUHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Gillian Pitts+4.9
3717-20HOUCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Andi Spies+2.3
3818-20CINCYCINCYKillAudrey Rome+4.7
3918-21CINCYHOUBlockedNina Scruccablk Tara Greenberry, Kamille Gibson+4.7
4018-22HOUHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Gillian Pitts+4.8
4119-22HOUCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.9
4219-23CINCYHOUKillKamille Gibsonset Shannon Dworaczyk+3.3
4319-24HOUHOUKillAlexis Roberson+2.2
4420-24HOUCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+0.4
4520-25CINCYHOUKillNoemi Despaigneset Shannon Dworaczyk+0.9

Score shown after each rally, Cincinnati first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).