FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-12

3:0

HomeACC

Cincinnati def. Syracuse 3–0

(27-25, 25-19, 25-11)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CINCY	27	25	25	3
SYR	25	19	11	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SYR above 50 · CINCY below

Biggest swing: 3.6% to Cincinnati — set 1, CINCY 27-25 SYR. Attack error by Emma Faerber. SYR win probability 8% → 4%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CINCY 91.6%8.4% SYR

Cincinnati wins

3-0

47.5%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

12.9%

Syracuse wins

3-0

1.1%

3-1

2.5%

3-2

4.8%

CINCY break %: 46.7% vs this opp
SYR break %: 36.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emma FaerberAttack error+3.6%
Attack error by Emma Faerber
Set 1 · CINCY 27-25 SYR · CINCY 92% → 96%
02
Nina ScruccaAttack error+3.2%
Attack error by Nina Scrucca
Set 1 · CINCY 20-21 SYR · SYR 11% → 14%
03
Andrea SimovskiKill+3.1%
Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · CINCY 24-23 SYR · CINCY 89% → 92%
04
Andrea SimovskiAttack error+3.1%
Andrea Simovski stuffed by Abby Nicholson
Set 1 · CINCY 24-24 SYR · SYR 8% → 11%
05
Andrea SimovskiKill+3.1%
Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · CINCY 25-24 SYR · CINCY 89% → 92%
06
Kiernan StameyKill+3.1%
Kill by Kiernan Stamey (set by Yuka Urano)
Set 1 · CINCY 25-25 SYR · SYR 8% → 11%
07
Andrea SimovskiKill+3.1%
Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · CINCY 26-25 SYR · CINCY 89% → 92%
08
CINCY serverAce+3.1%
Cincinnati ace on Yuka Urano
Set 1 · CINCY 22-21 SYR · CINCY 88% → 91%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cincinnatiaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Andrea SimovskiOH	3	11	1	20	.500	0	4	1	3	1	1	1	1.5	16.5
11Nina ScruccaOPP	3	9	2	19	.368	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	0	10
4Audrey RomeMB	3	6	2	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	9
2Sydney NolanOH	3	6	1	12	.417	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	7
5Lilian EntenmannMB	3	5	0	6	.833	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	5
6Kate LijicS	3	2	1	4	.250	34	2	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Viktoria NinovaL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	3	14	0	0	0	0	1
1Ava LedebuhrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
9Kayla HostetlerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
16Izzy BusignaniOH	1	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
8Ligia WilliamsOH	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	8	76	.447	36	8	11	26	2	2	8	6	77

Syracusehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
8Kiernan StameyOH	3	13	6	30	.233	0	0	0	2	2	1	1	1.5	14.5
6Marie LaurioOH	3	13	5	28	.286	0	0	2	5	3	0	0	0	13
23Abby NicholsonMB	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
15Emma FaerberMB	3	2	3	6	-.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
13Aileen McAllisterOH	3	2	4	9	-.222	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	2
1Charis BurgeS	3	0	1	2	-.500	25	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
22Mira LedermuellerS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
18Yuka UranoL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	1	1	6	2	0	0	0	1
14Anna SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Bella RodriguezOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	21	87	.138	31	2	6	23	8	2	4	4	55

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 CINCY · SYR 5

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 3 CINCYSYR 5

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 CINCYSYR 3

Set 3

25-11

Longest run 6 CINCYSYR 1

Bars above the line = Syracuse leads, below = Cincinnati leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cincinnati

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	72%13/18
2	70%7/10	46%6/13
3	78%7/9	22%2/9
4	88%7/8	22%2/9
5	64%7/11	30%3/10
6	64%7/11	56%9/16
All	74%42/57	47%35/75

Syracuse

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	39%7/18	13%1/8
2	78%7/9	30%3/10
3	78%7/9	0%0/7
4	70%7/10	22%2/9
5	50%7/14	13%1/8
6	33%5/15	53%8/15
All	53%40/75	26%15/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	CINCY-SYR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SYR	SYR	Kill	Aileen McAllister	set Charis Burge	+1.1
2	1-1	SYR	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.7
3	2-1	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Emma Faerber	blk Sydney Nolan, Audrey Rome	+0.9
4	3-1	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan		+0.8
5	3-2	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.6
6	3-3	SYR	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson		+1.0
7	4-3	SYR	CINCY	Serve err	SYR server		+0.7
8	4-4	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.8
9	5-4	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.7
10	6-4	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.9
11	6-5	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.7
12	7-5	SYR	CINCY	Attack err	Charis Burge	blk Andrea Simovski	+0.6
13	7-6	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.7
14	8-6	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.7
15	9-6	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.8
16	9-7	CINCY	SYR	Attack err	Nina Scrucca	blk Emma Faerber, Kiernan Stamey	+0.6
17	10-7	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
18	11-7	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Marie Laurio		+0.7
19	11-8	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.4
20	12-8	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
21	12-9	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.5
22	13-9	SYR	CINCY	Attack err	Marie Laurio	blk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic	+0.5
23	13-10	CINCY	SYR	Attack err	Yuka Urano		+0.5
24	14-10	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
25	14-11	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.5
26	15-11	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
27	16-11	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Marie Laurio	+0.5
28	16-12	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.3
29	17-12	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.4
30	17-13	CINCY	SYR×5	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.3
31	17-14	SYR	SYR×5	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Mira Ledermueller	+0.7
32	17-15	SYR	SYR×5	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Mira Ledermueller	+1.0
33	17-16	SYR	SYR×5	Kill	Aileen McAllister	set Yuka Urano	+1.4
34	17-17	SYR	SYR×5	Ace	SYR server	aced Ava Ledebuhr	+1.9
35	18-17	SYR	CINCY	Serve err	SYR server		+1.3
36	18-18	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+1.5
37	19-18	SYR	CINCY	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+1.5
38	20-18	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Aileen McAllister		+1.8
39	20-19	CINCY	SYR×3	Attack err	Audrey Rome		+1.2
40	20-20	SYR	SYR×3	Ace	SYR server	aced Andrea Simovski	+2.4
41	20-21	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+3.2
42	21-21	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.1
43	22-21	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Yuka Urano	+3.1
44	22-22	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+2.2
45	23-22	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.5
46	23-23	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+2.5
47	24-23	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+3.1
48	24-24	CINCY	SYR	Attack err	Andrea Simovski	blk Abby Nicholson	+3.1
49	25-24	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+3.1
50	25-25	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Yuka Urano	+3.1
51	26-25	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+3.1
52	27-25	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Emma Faerber		+3.6
Set 2
1	0-1	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.5
2	1-1	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
3	2-1	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Marie Laurio		+0.6
4	2-2	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.5
5	3-2	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan		+0.4
6	4-2	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Kate Lijic	set Charis Burge	+0.6
7	4-3	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.4
8	5-3	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
9	6-3	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Abby Nicholson	blk Andrea Simovski, Audrey Rome	+0.5
10	6-4	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.3
11	7-4	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
12	7-5	CINCY	SYR×3	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.4
13	7-6	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.6
14	7-7	SYR	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.8
15	8-7	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Kate Lijic		+0.5
16	9-7	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Marie Laurio		+0.7
17	9-8	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.5
18	10-8	SYR	CINCY×4	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
19	11-8	CINCY	CINCY×4	Ace	CINCY server	aced Kiernan Stamey	+0.6
20	12-8	CINCY	CINCY×4	Ace	CINCY server	aced Kiernan Stamey	+0.5
21	13-8	CINCY	CINCY×4	Ace	CINCY server	aced Marie Laurio	+0.3
22	13-9	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.2
23	14-9	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
24	14-10	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.2
25	15-10	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
26	15-11	CINCY	SYR×3	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.2
27	15-12	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Charis Burge, Abby Nicholson	+0.4
28	15-13	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Audrey Rome		+0.6
29	16-13	SYR	CINCY	Serve err	SYR server		+0.5
30	16-14	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.5
31	16-15	SYR	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.9
32	17-15	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.7
33	18-15	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Aileen McAllister		+0.8
34	18-16	CINCY	SYR×3	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.5
35	18-17	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Ligia Williams		+1.0
36	18-18	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Kate Lijic	blk Kiernan Stamey	+1.4
37	19-18	SYR	CINCY×3	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+1.0
38	20-18	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+1.2
39	21-18	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Yuka Urano	+0.9
40	21-19	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.5
41	22-19	SYR	CINCY×4	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
42	23-19	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
43	24-19	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.2
44	25-19	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Marie Laurio		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	SYR	CINCY×3	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
2	2-0	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Aileen McAllister	blk Sydney Nolan, Audrey Rome	+0.3
3	3-0	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Audrey Rome		+0.2
4	3-1	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.2
5	4-1	SYR	CINCY	Attack err	Abby Nicholson	blk Audrey Rome	+0.1
6	4-2	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.2
7	5-2	SYR	CINCY	Serve err	SYR server		+0.2
8	5-3	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.2
9	6-3	SYR	CINCY	Serve err	SYR server		+0.2
10	6-4	CINCY	SYR	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.2
11	7-4	SYR	CINCY×6	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
12	8-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Ace	CINCY server	aced Marie Laurio	+0.2
13	9-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Andrea Simovski		+0.2
14	10-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.1
15	11-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.1
16	12-4	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
17	12-5	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
18	13-5	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
19	13-6	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Emma Faerber	set Charis Burge	+0.0
20	14-6	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Lilian Entenmann	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
21	14-7	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Emma Faerber	set Charis Burge	+0.0
22	15-7	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
23	15-8	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Yuka Urano	+0.0
24	16-8	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
25	16-9	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Yuka Urano	+0.0
26	17-9	SYR	CINCY	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
27	18-9	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Aileen McAllister		+0.0
28	18-10	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
29	19-10	SYR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
30	19-11	CINCY	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
31	20-11	SYR	CINCY×6	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
32	21-11	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Emma Faerber		+0.0
33	22-11	CINCY	CINCY×6	Ace	CINCY server	aced Bella Rodriguez	+0.0
34	23-11	CINCY	CINCY×6	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
35	24-11	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
36	25-11	CINCY	CINCY×6	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Cincinnati first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.