FinalTue, Sep 15, 2026

AwayMAC

0:3

HomeBIG-12

Cincinnati def. Ball St. 3–0

(25-8, 25-19, 32-30)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BALLST	8	19	30	0
CINCY	25	25	32	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CINCY above 50 · BALLST below

Biggest swing: 4.0% to Cincinnati — set 3, BALLST 30-31 CINCY. Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Kate Lijic). CINCY win probability 92% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BALLST 28.4%71.6% CINCY

Ball St. wins

3-0

5.3%

3-1

9.9%

3-2

13.2%

Cincinnati wins

3-0

24.4%

3-1

27.5%

3-2

19.7%

BALLST break %: 39.1% vs this opp
CINCY break %: 43.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Izzy BusignaniKill+4.0%
Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 3 · BALLST 30-31 CINCY · CINCY 92% → 96%
02
Izzy BusignaniKill+3.6%
Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 3 · BALLST 30-32 CINCY · CINCY 96% → 100%
03
Ava SmithKill+3.1%
Kill by Ava Smith (set by Lindsey Green)
Set 3 · BALLST 24-23 CINCY · BALLST 8% → 11%
04
Izzy BusignaniKill+3.1%
Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 3 · BALLST 24-24 CINCY · CINCY 89% → 92%
05
Ava SmithKill+3.1%
Kill by Ava Smith (set by Reese Axness)
Set 3 · BALLST 25-24 CINCY · BALLST 8% → 11%
06
BALLST serverService error+3.1%
Ball St. service error
Set 3 · BALLST 25-25 CINCY · CINCY 89% → 92%
07
Audrey GeerKill+3.1%
Kill by Audrey Geer (set by Reese Axness)
Set 3 · BALLST 26-25 CINCY · BALLST 8% → 11%
08
Izzy BusignaniKill+3.1%
Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 3 · BALLST 26-26 CINCY · CINCY 89% → 92%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ball St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Audrey GeerOH	3	12	6	33	.182	1	1	3	7	2	0	0	13
14Ava SmithOH	3	10	3	29	.241	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	10
21Madison BuckleyOPP	3	5	1	13	.308	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
13Gwen CrullMB	3	1	2	8	-.125	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	2
2Reese AxnessS	3	0	0	0	–	19	0	1	5	0	0	0	0
17Camryn WiseMB	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Tiffany SnookMB	3	11	3	19	.421	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
8Lindsey GreenS	3	0	0	0	–	11	1	0	6	0	0	0	1
12Sophie LedbetterDS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	12	3	0	0	0
3Elizabeth TabelingDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
7Lucy McCollumS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
16Alana BaileyMB	1	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
Team totals		40	16	107	.224	37	3	6	44	7	2	1	57

Cincinnatihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Nina ScruccaOPP	3	13	0	22	.591	0	2	3	3	0	0	2	1	16
2Sydney NolanOH	3	14	2	32	.375	0	0	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	14.5
16Izzy BusignaniOH	3	10	1	23	.391	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	1	11
8Ligia WilliamsOH	3	7	3	16	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	9
4Audrey RomeMB	3	7	0	12	.583	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
6Kate LijicS	3	2	0	3	.667	41	3	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
21Viktoria NinovaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	7	1	3	18	2	0	0	0	1
9Kayla HostetlerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		53	6	108	.435	50	7	6	43	3	2	8	6	82

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 BALLST · CINCY 14

Set 1

8-25

Longest run 2 BALLSTCINCY 14

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 5 BALLSTCINCY 4

Set 3

30-32

Longest run 3 BALLSTCINCY 4

Bars above the line = Cincinnati leads, below = Ball St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ball St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	36%4/11
2	50%7/14	43%6/14
3	64%7/11	30%3/10
4	43%6/14	0%0/7
5	32%6/19	25%2/8
6	56%5/9	33%3/9
All	49%39/80	31%18/59

Cincinnati

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	33%3/9
2	73%8/11	43%6/14
3	78%7/9	46%6/13
4	100%7/7	46%6/13
5	60%6/10	40%4/10
6	71%5/7	76%16/21
All	69%41/59	51%41/80

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

139 rallies

Rally log

#	BALLST-CINCY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.5
2	1-1	CINCY	BALLST	Serve err	CINCY server		+1.5
3	2-1	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+2.3
4	2-2	BALLST	CINCY	Attack err	Ava Smith		+1.6
5	2-3	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Madison Buckley		+2.2
6	3-3	CINCY	BALLST	Serve err	CINCY server		+1.6
7	3-4	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+1.6
8	3-5	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Ava Smith		+2.1
9	4-5	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.5
10	4-6	BALLST	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.5
11	4-7	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kayla Hostetler	+2.0
12	4-8	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Audrey Geer	+1.7
13	5-8	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
14	5-9	BALLST	CINCY×14	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+1.2
15	5-10	CINCY	CINCY×14	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Viktoria Ninova	+1.5
16	5-11	CINCY	CINCY×14	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+1.2
17	5-12	CINCY	CINCY×14	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.9
18	5-13	CINCY	CINCY×14	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+0.6
19	5-14	CINCY	CINCY×14	Attack err	Audrey Geer	blk Ligia Williams, Nina Scrucca	+0.4
20	5-15	CINCY	CINCY×14	Ace	CINCY server	aced Elizabeth Tabeling	+0.2
21	5-16	CINCY	CINCY×14	Attack err	Audrey Geer	blk Ligia Williams, Nina Scrucca	+0.1
22	5-17	CINCY	CINCY×14	Ace	CINCY server	aced Sophie Ledbetter	+0.1
23	5-18	CINCY	CINCY×14	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
24	5-19	CINCY	CINCY×14	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
25	5-20	CINCY	CINCY×14	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
26	5-21	CINCY	CINCY×14	Attack err	Tiffany Snook	blk Izzy Busignani	+0.0
27	5-22	CINCY	CINCY×14	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
28	6-22	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lucy McCollum	+0.0
29	6-23	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
30	7-23	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lucy McCollum	+0.0
31	7-24	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.0
32	8-24	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+0.0
33	8-25	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	CINCY	BALLST	Attack err	Ligia Williams		+1.3
2	1-1	BALLST	CINCY×4	Serve err	BALLST server		+1.2
3	1-2	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Viktoria Ninova	+1.7
4	1-3	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.6
5	1-4	CINCY	CINCY×4	Ace	CINCY server	aced Sophie Ledbetter	+1.5
6	2-4	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+1.0
7	3-4	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith		+1.7
8	3-5	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.2
9	4-5	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.2
10	4-6	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.2
11	4-7	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+1.6
12	5-7	CINCY	BALLST	Bad set	Sydney Nolan		+1.1
13	5-8	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+1.1
14	6-8	CINCY	BALLST×3	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
15	7-8	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Sophie Ledbetter	+1.8
16	8-8	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Sophie Ledbetter	+2.1
17	8-9	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+1.5
18	8-10	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+2.0
19	9-10	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Sophie Ledbetter	+1.4
20	10-10	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+2.2
21	10-11	BALLST	CINCY×3	Attack err	Gwen Crull	blk Ligia Williams	+1.6
22	10-12	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+2.1
23	10-13	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Gwen Crull		+1.9
24	11-13	CINCY	BALLST×5	Bad set	Kate Lijic		+1.2
25	12-13	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+2.1
26	13-13	BALLST	BALLST×5	Attack err	Ligia Williams		+2.5
27	14-13	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Ava Smith	set Audrey Geer	+2.8
28	15-13	BALLST	BALLST×5	Ace	BALLST server	aced Izzy Busignani	+2.9
29	15-14	BALLST	CINCY	Serve err	BALLST server		+1.8
30	16-14	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+2.2
31	16-15	BALLST	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.9
32	16-16	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Audrey Geer	+3.0
33	16-17	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Reese Axness	+3.0
34	17-17	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+2.1
35	17-18	BALLST	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.2
36	17-19	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.0
37	17-20	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Viktoria Ninova	+2.5
38	17-21	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+1.8
39	18-21	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.8
40	18-22	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Viktoria Ninova	+1.2
41	19-22	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
42	19-23	BALLST	CINCY×3	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+1.1
43	19-24	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Team	+0.7
44	19-25	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.7
2	1-1	CINCY	BALLST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.7
3	2-1	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Alana Bailey, Tiffany Snook	+1.1
4	2-2	BALLST	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.7
5	2-3	CINCY	CINCY×4	Ace	CINCY server	aced Sophie Ledbetter	+1.0
6	2-4	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+1.0
7	2-5	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Tiffany Snook	blk Sydney Nolan, Audrey Rome	+0.9
8	3-5	CINCY	BALLST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.6
9	4-5	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Sophie Ledbetter	+1.0
10	4-6	BALLST	CINCY	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.7
11	4-7	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Ava Smith	blk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic	+0.9
12	5-7	CINCY	BALLST	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+0.6
13	5-8	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Kate Lijic	set Kayla Hostetler	+0.6
14	6-8	CINCY	BALLST×3	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+0.6
15	7-8	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Ligia Williams		+1.0
16	8-8	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Sophie Ledbetter	+1.2
17	8-9	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Kate Lijic	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.8
18	9-9	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.9
19	9-10	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.9
20	9-11	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams		+1.2
21	10-11	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.8
22	11-11	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.3
23	11-12	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.9
24	12-12	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.0
25	12-13	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+1.0
26	13-13	CINCY	BALLST	Serve err	CINCY server		+1.0
27	14-13	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.6
28	14-14	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.0
29	15-14	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.2
30	15-15	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+1.1
31	16-15	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+1.2
32	16-16	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Viktoria Ninova	+1.2
33	17-16	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+1.3
34	18-16	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Viktoria Ninova	+1.9
35	18-17	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.2
36	19-17	CINCY	BALLST×3	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.5
37	20-17	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Alana Bailey		+1.9
38	21-17	BALLST	BALLST×3	Ace	BALLST server	aced Viktoria Ninova	+1.5
39	21-18	BALLST	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.7
40	21-19	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+1.4
41	21-20	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Audrey Rome		+1.9
42	21-21	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Alana Bailey		+2.4
43	22-21	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+2.1
44	22-22	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.9
45	23-22	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+2.4
46	23-23	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.3
47	24-23	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+3.1
48	24-24	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+3.1
49	25-24	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+3.1
50	25-25	BALLST	CINCY	Serve err	BALLST server		+3.1
51	26-25	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+3.1
52	26-26	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+3.1
53	27-26	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+3.1
54	27-27	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.1
55	28-27	CINCY	BALLST	Serve err	CINCY server		+3.1
56	28-28	BALLST	CINCY	Serve err	BALLST server		+3.1
57	29-28	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+3.1
58	29-29	BALLST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.1
59	30-29	CINCY	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+3.1
60	30-30	BALLST	CINCY×3	Serve err	BALLST server		+3.1
61	30-31	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+4.0
62	30-32	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+3.6

Score shown after each rally, Ball St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.