Cincinnati def. Xavier 3–1
(25-12, 25-20, 23-25, 25-17)| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CINCY | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | 3 |
| XAVIER | 12 | 20 | 25 | 17 | 1 |
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 3.7% to Xavier — set 3, CINCY 23-25 XAVIER. Kill by Gabrielle Semona (set by Macy Hatkevich). XAVIER win probability 13% → 16%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Cincinnati wins
Xavier wins
- CINCY break %
- 44.5% vs this opp
- XAVIER break %
- 40.6% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01Gabrielle SemonaKill+3.7%
Kill by Gabrielle Semona (set by Macy Hatkevich)
Set 3 · CINCY 23-25 XAVIER · XAVIER 13% → 16%
- 02Andrea SimovskiAttack error+3.6%
Attack error by Andrea Simovski
Set 3 · CINCY 22-24 XAVIER · XAVIER 10% → 14%
- 03Audrey RomeAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Audrey Rome
Set 2 · CINCY 16-17 XAVIER · XAVIER 18% → 21%
- 04Lilian EntenmannKill+3.3%
Kill by Lilian Entenmann (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 2 · CINCY 18-17 XAVIER · CINCY 81% → 84%
- 05Andrea SimovskiKill+3.1%
Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 2 · CINCY 19-17 XAVIER · CINCY 84% → 87%
- 06Charlotte MoriartyKill+3.0%
Kill by Charlotte Moriarty (set by Elouise Czajkowski)
Set 4 · CINCY 7-7 XAVIER · XAVIER 13% → 16%
- 07Macy HatkevichKill+2.9%
Kill by Macy Hatkevich (set by Viktoria Ninova)
Set 2 · CINCY 16-16 XAVIER · XAVIER 15% → 18%
- 08Charlotte MoriartyKill+2.9%
Kill by Charlotte Moriarty (set by Kelsey Niesen)
Set 4 · CINCY 1-3 XAVIER · XAVIER 18% → 21%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 21 | 1 | 50 | .400 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | |
| 4 | 17 | 2 | 23 | .652 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 18.5 | |
| 4 | 12 | 6 | 32 | .188 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 13.5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | .125 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .333 | 44 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .250 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 56 | 11 | 124 | .363 | 52 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 98 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 13 | 4 | 25 | .360 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
| 4 | 11 | 5 | 33 | .182 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| 4 | 5 | 2 | 9 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 5.5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 20 | .050 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -.111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 9 | 1 | 16 | .500 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 10.5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | .067 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -.400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 49 | 24 | 132 | .189 | 44 | 2 | 10 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 74 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1
25-12
Set 2
25-20
Set 3
23-25
Set 4
25-17
Bars above the line = Xavier leads, below = Cincinnati leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Cincinnati
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 82%9/11 | 53%8/15 |
| 2 | 69%9/13 | 18%2/11 |
| 3 | 69%9/13 | 67%18/27 |
| 4 | 60%9/15 | 50%9/18 |
| 5 | 57%8/14 | 38%5/13 |
| 6 | 67%6/9 | 46%6/13 |
| All | 67%50/75 | 49%48/97 |
Xavier
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64%9/14 | 27%3/11 |
| 2 | 43%9/21 | 18%2/11 |
| 3 | 41%9/22 | 25%3/12 |
| 4 | 57%8/14 | 47%8/17 |
| 5 | 67%8/12 | 43%6/14 |
| 6 | 43%6/14 | 30%3/10 |
| All | 51%49/97 | 33%25/75 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
172 rallies
Rally log
| # | CINCY-XAVIER | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +1.5 |
| 2 | 1-1 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Jenna Barhorst | +1.6 |
| 3 | 2-1 | XAVIER | CINCY×4 | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +1.6 |
| 4 | 3-1 | CINCY | CINCY×4 | Attack err | Ava Tilden | +2.1 | |
| 5 | 4-1 | CINCY | CINCY×4 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +1.9 |
| 6 | 5-1 | CINCY | CINCY×4 | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | +1.7 | |
| 7 | 5-2 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +1.2 | |
| 8 | 6-2 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Audrey Rome | set Kate Lijic | +1.3 |
| 9 | 7-2 | CINCY | CINCY | Attack err | Ava Tilden | blk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic | +1.5 |
| 10 | 7-3 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.0 |
| 11 | 8-3 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +1.1 | |
| 12 | 8-4 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.0 |
| 13 | 8-5 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Andrea Simovski | +1.6 | |
| 14 | 9-5 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +1.3 | |
| 15 | 9-6 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +1.2 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Nina Scrucca | +2.0 | |
| 17 | 10-7 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +1.6 |
| 18 | 11-7 | CINCY | CINCY | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | +1.9 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +1.3 |
| 20 | 12-8 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Ligia Williams | set Kate Lijic | +1.4 |
| 21 | 12-9 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Jenna Barhorst | +1.3 |
| 22 | 13-9 | XAVIER | CINCY×6 | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +1.5 |
| 23 | 14-9 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | +1.6 | |
| 24 | 15-9 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Attack err | Ava Tilden | +1.2 | |
| 25 | 16-9 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Attack err | Quinci Thomas | +0.8 | |
| 26 | 17-9 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +0.5 |
| 27 | 18-9 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +0.3 |
| 28 | 18-10 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Ava Tilden | set Jenna Barhorst | +0.1 |
| 29 | 19-10 | XAVIER | CINCY×5 | Attack err | Ava Tilden | +0.2 | |
| 30 | 20-10 | CINCY | CINCY×5 | Ace | CINCY server | aced Ava Tilden | +0.1 |
| 31 | 21-10 | CINCY | CINCY×5 | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +0.1 |
| 32 | 22-10 | CINCY | CINCY×5 | Attack err | Catherine Flaharty | +0.0 | |
| 33 | 23-10 | CINCY | CINCY×5 | Attack err | Cameron Sher | blk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic | +0.0 |
| 34 | 23-11 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.0 |
| 35 | 23-12 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Audrey Rome | blk Charlotte Moriarty, Margo Kemp | +0.0 |
| 36 | 24-12 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +0.0 | |
| 37 | 25-12 | CINCY | CINCY | Attack err | Catherine Flaharty | +0.0 | |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | CINCY | CINCY | Attack err | Gabrielle Semona | +1.7 | |
| 2 | 2-0 | CINCY | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +1.7 |
| 3 | 2-1 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Quinci Thomas | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.2 |
| 4 | 2-2 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Kelsey Niesen | +1.8 |
| 5 | 3-2 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +1.3 |
| 6 | 4-2 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Ace | CINCY server | aced Cameron Sher | +1.7 |
| 7 | 5-2 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Bad set | Macy Hatkevich | +1.6 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Quinci Thomas | set Kelsey Niesen | +1.1 |
| 9 | 5-4 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.8 |
| 10 | 6-4 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +1.3 | |
| 11 | 6-5 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.3 |
| 12 | 6-6 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.0 |
| 13 | 7-6 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Kate Lijic | +1.5 | |
| 14 | 7-7 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +1.5 | |
| 15 | 8-7 | XAVIER | CINCY | Attack err | Margo Kemp | blk Audrey Rome, Andrea Simovski | +1.5 |
| 16 | 8-8 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +1.6 | |
| 17 | 9-8 | XAVIER | CINCY | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | +1.6 | |
| 18 | 10-8 | CINCY | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Viktoria Ninova | +2.1 |
| 19 | 10-9 | CINCY | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Gabrielle Semona | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.5 |
| 20 | 10-10 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Ace | XAVIER server | aced Team | +2.3 |
| 21 | 10-11 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Quinci Thomas | +2.5 |
| 22 | 11-11 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Serve err | XAVIER server | +1.8 | |
| 23 | 12-11 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.4 |
| 24 | 13-11 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Viktoria Ninova | +2.3 |
| 25 | 13-12 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.6 |
| 26 | 14-12 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +1.7 |
| 27 | 14-13 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Quinci Thomas | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.7 |
| 28 | 14-14 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Bad set | Kate Lijic | +2.6 | |
| 29 | 15-14 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +2.0 | |
| 30 | 16-14 | CINCY | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Viktoria Ninova | +2.6 |
| 31 | 16-15 | CINCY | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.8 |
| 32 | 16-16 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Viktoria Ninova | +2.9 |
| 33 | 16-17 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Attack err | Audrey Rome | +3.3 | |
| 34 | 17-17 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +2.3 |
| 35 | 18-17 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Lilian Entenmann | set Kate Lijic | +3.3 |
| 36 | 19-17 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +3.1 |
| 37 | 19-18 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.1 |
| 38 | 20-18 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +2.4 |
| 39 | 21-18 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +2.7 |
| 40 | 22-18 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Ace | CINCY server | aced Kasey Quenichet | +1.9 |
| 41 | 22-19 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.8 |
| 42 | 22-20 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Andrea Simovski | +1.9 | |
| 43 | 23-20 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +2.2 |
| 44 | 24-20 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +1.6 |
| 45 | 25-20 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Viktoria Ninova | +0.4 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +0.7 |
| 2 | 1-1 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Charlotte Moriarty | +0.8 |
| 3 | 2-1 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +0.7 |
| 4 | 2-2 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.8 |
| 5 | 3-2 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +0.8 |
| 6 | 3-3 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Sydney Nolan | +0.8 |
| 7 | 3-4 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.2 |
| 8 | 4-4 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +0.8 |
| 9 | 4-5 | CINCY | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Kelsey Niesen | +0.9 |
| 10 | 4-6 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Attack err | Andrea Simovski | +1.2 | |
| 11 | 4-7 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | +1.2 | |
| 12 | 5-7 | XAVIER | CINCY | Attack err | Macy Hatkevich | +0.8 | |
| 13 | 5-8 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +1.0 | |
| 14 | 6-8 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +0.8 |
| 15 | 7-8 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Ace | CINCY server | aced Kelsey Niesen | +1.2 |
| 16 | 8-8 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +1.3 |
| 17 | 8-9 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Gabrielle Semona | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.0 |
| 18 | 9-9 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Viktoria Ninova | +0.9 |
| 19 | 9-10 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Gabrielle Semona | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.0 |
| 20 | 10-10 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +1.0 | |
| 21 | 10-11 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | +1.1 | |
| 22 | 11-11 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +1.0 |
| 23 | 11-12 | CINCY | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.1 |
| 24 | 11-13 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Kasey Quenichet | +1.5 |
| 25 | 11-14 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Attack err | Andrea Simovski | +1.5 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +1.0 | |
| 27 | 13-14 | CINCY | CINCY | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +1.5 |
| 28 | 13-15 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Charlotte Moriarty | +1.3 |
| 29 | 14-15 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +1.1 |
| 30 | 15-15 | CINCY | CINCY | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | blk Ligia Williams, Nina Scrucca | +1.6 |
| 31 | 15-16 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +1.3 | |
| 32 | 16-16 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +1.3 |
| 33 | 16-17 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Quinci Thomas | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.4 |
| 34 | 16-18 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Cameron Sher | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.0 |
| 35 | 17-18 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +1.3 |
| 36 | 17-19 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +1.6 | |
| 37 | 17-20 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Bad set | Kate Lijic | +1.9 | |
| 38 | 18-20 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +1.1 |
| 39 | 19-20 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | +1.9 | |
| 40 | 20-20 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Ace | CINCY server | aced Charlotte Moriarty | +2.3 |
| 41 | 20-21 | CINCY | XAVIER | Attack err | Sydney Nolan | +2.0 | |
| 42 | 21-21 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +1.8 |
| 43 | 21-22 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | +2.2 | |
| 44 | 22-22 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +2.1 |
| 45 | 22-23 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +2.7 | |
| 46 | 22-24 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Attack err | Andrea Simovski | +3.6 | |
| 47 | 23-24 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +1.5 | |
| 48 | 23-25 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Gabrielle Semona | set Macy Hatkevich | +3.7 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Macy Hatkevich | set Kelsey Niesen | +2.0 |
| 2 | 1-1 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +1.9 |
| 3 | 1-2 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Cameron Sher | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.1 |
| 4 | 1-3 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Kelsey Niesen | +2.9 |
| 5 | 2-3 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +2.0 |
| 6 | 3-3 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Attack err | Charlotte Moriarty | +2.8 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Attack err | Margo Kemp | blk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic | +2.7 |
| 8 | 4-4 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Cameron Sher | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.1 |
| 9 | 5-4 | XAVIER | CINCY | Serve err | XAVIER server | +2.0 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.1 |
| 11 | 6-5 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +2.1 |
| 12 | 7-5 | CINCY | CINCY | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kayla Hostetler | +2.7 |
| 13 | 7-6 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.0 |
| 14 | 7-7 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Elouise Czajkowski | +3.0 |
| 15 | 8-7 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Kate Lijic | +2.2 |
| 16 | 9-7 | CINCY | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Ligia Williams | +2.9 |
| 17 | 9-8 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Charlotte Moriarty | set Macy Hatkevich | +2.1 |
| 18 | 10-8 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +2.2 |
| 19 | 11-8 | CINCY | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +2.7 |
| 20 | 11-9 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Gabrielle Semona | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.9 |
| 21 | 12-9 | XAVIER | CINCY | Attack err | Gabrielle Semona | +2.0 | |
| 22 | 12-10 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +1.9 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | XAVIER | CINCY×6 | Attack err | Margo Kemp | +2.1 | |
| 24 | 14-10 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Attack err | Cameron Sher | +2.4 | |
| 25 | 15-10 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Bad set | Macy Hatkevich | +1.9 | |
| 26 | 16-10 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Attack err | Cameron Sher | +1.4 | |
| 27 | 17-10 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Macy Hatkevich | +1.0 |
| 28 | 18-10 | CINCY | CINCY×6 | Attack err | Margo Kemp | +0.6 | |
| 29 | 18-11 | CINCY | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.3 |
| 30 | 18-12 | XAVIER | XAVIER | Kill | Margo Kemp | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.6 |
| 31 | 19-12 | XAVIER | CINCY×3 | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +0.6 |
| 32 | 20-12 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Ace | CINCY server | aced Charlotte Moriarty | +0.5 |
| 33 | 21-12 | CINCY | CINCY×3 | Kill | Audrey Rome | set Kate Lijic | +0.2 |
| 34 | 21-13 | CINCY | XAVIER×3 | Kill | Cameron Sher | set Macy Hatkevich | +0.1 |
| 35 | 21-14 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Ace | XAVIER server | aced Kayla Hostetler | +0.2 |
| 36 | 21-15 | XAVIER | XAVIER×3 | Attack err | Andrea Simovski | blk Macy Hatkevich, Margo Kemp | +0.3 |
| 37 | 22-15 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Audrey Rome | set Kate Lijic | +0.4 |
| 38 | 22-16 | CINCY | XAVIER | Serve err | CINCY server | +0.2 | |
| 39 | 23-16 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Sydney Nolan | set Kate Lijic | +0.3 |
| 40 | 24-16 | CINCY | CINCY | Kill | Andrea Simovski | set Viktoria Ninova | +0.1 |
| 41 | 24-17 | CINCY | XAVIER | Attack err | Nina Scrucca | blk Charlotte Moriarty, Gabrielle Semona | +0.0 |
| 42 | 25-17 | XAVIER | CINCY | Kill | Nina Scrucca | set Kate Lijic | +0.0 |
Score shown after each rally, Cincinnati first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.