Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 18, 2026

Cincinnati def. Xavier 3–1

Cincinnati won at Xavier 3-1 (25-12, 25-20, 23-25, 25-17) on Fri, Sep 18, 2026. Cincinnati's Sydney Nolan led with 21 kills, and Kate Lijic added 11 digs.

Data through · final Sep 18

Set1234Sets
CINCY252523253
XAVIER122025171

Win probability

Xavier above 50 · Cincinnati below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.0% XAVIERrally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.0% to Xavier — set 3, CINCY 22-24 XAVIER. Attack error by Andrea Simovski. XAVIER win probability 12% → 16%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CINCY 64.5%35.5% XAVIER

Cincinnati wins

3-0
19.7%
3-1
24.7%
3-2
20.1%

Xavier wins

3-0
7.3%
3-1
12.7%
3-2
15.4%
CINCY break %
43.5% vs this opp
XAVIER break %
40.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Andrea SimovskiAttack error+4.0%

    Attack error by Andrea Simovski

    Set 3 · CINCY 22-24 XAVIER · XAVIER 12% → 16%

  2. 02

    Kill by Gabrielle Semona (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 3 · CINCY 23-25 XAVIER · XAVIER 15% → 19%

  3. 03

    Kill by Lilian Entenmann (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 2 · CINCY 18-17 XAVIER · CINCY 78% → 82%

  4. 04
    Audrey RomeAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Audrey Rome

    Set 2 · CINCY 16-17 XAVIER · XAVIER 21% → 25%

  5. 05

    Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 2 · CINCY 19-17 XAVIER · CINCY 82% → 85%

  6. 06

    Kill by Charlotte Moriarty (set by Elouise Czajkowski)

    Set 4 · CINCY 7-7 XAVIER · XAVIER 15% → 18%

  7. 07

    Kill by Macy Hatkevich (set by Viktoria Ninova)

    Set 2 · CINCY 16-16 XAVIER · XAVIER 18% → 21%

  8. 08
    Nina ScruccaKill+3.2%

    Kill by Nina Scrucca (set by Ligia Williams)

    Set 4 · CINCY 9-7 XAVIER · CINCY 84% → 87%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421150.4000218000023
417223.65201170010.518.5
412632.18801090010.513.5
4328.125002100425
4103.3334403110031.52.5
4104.25010020010.51.5
4000–6121000001
4000–100410000
2104.250010000002
1000–001000000
Team totals5611124.36352610522010598
Xavierhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413425.3600022002114
411533.18220015202112
4529.33300000010.55.5
44320.050100100004
2000–400100000
1349-.111000010003
49116.500301140010.510.5
44315.067000210004
4000–113810001
4000–5031110000
3000–101900000
1025-.400000000000
Team totals4924132.1894421053606374

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CINCY · XAVIER 3

Set 1

25-12

Longest run 6 CINCYXAVIER 2

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 3 CINCYXAVIER 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 CINCYXAVIER 3

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 6 CINCYXAVIER 3

Bars above the line = Xavier leads, below = Cincinnati leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cincinnati

SlotSideout %Break %
1
82%9/11
53%8/15
2
69%9/13
18%2/11
3
69%9/13
67%18/27
4
60%9/15
50%9/18
5
57%8/14
38%5/13
6
67%6/9
46%6/13
All
67%50/75
49%48/97

Xavier

SlotSideout %Break %
1
64%9/14
27%3/11
2
43%9/21
18%2/11
3
41%9/22
25%3/12
4
57%8/14
47%8/17
5
67%8/12
43%6/14
6
43%6/14
30%3/10
All
51%49/97
33%25/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#CINCY-XAVIERSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0XAVIERCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.7
21-1CINCYXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Jenna Barhorst+1.7
32-1XAVIERCINCY×4KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.7
43-1CINCYCINCY×4Attack errAva Tilden+2.3
54-1CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.1
65-1CINCYCINCY×4Attack errQuinci Thomas+1.9
75-2CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+1.3
86-2XAVIERCINCYKillAudrey Romeset Kate Lijic+1.4
97-2CINCYCINCYBlockedAva Tildenblk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic+1.7
107-3CINCYXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+1.1
118-3XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier+1.2
128-4CINCYXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.1
138-5XAVIERXAVIERAttack errAndrea Simovski+1.8
149-5XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier+1.5
159-6CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+1.3
169-7XAVIERXAVIERAttack errNina Scrucca+2.2
1710-7XAVIERCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.7
1811-7CINCYCINCYAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+2.1
1911-8CINCYXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Jenna Barhorst+1.4
2012-8XAVIERCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.6
2112-9CINCYXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Jenna Barhorst+1.4
2213-9XAVIERCINCY×6KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.6
2314-9CINCYCINCY×6Attack errQuinci Thomas+1.8
2415-9CINCYCINCY×6Attack errAva Tilden+1.4
2516-9CINCYCINCY×6Attack errQuinci Thomas+1.0
2617-9CINCYCINCY×6KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.6
2718-9CINCYCINCY×6KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.4
2818-10CINCYXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Jenna Barhorst+0.1
2919-10XAVIERCINCY×5Attack errAva Tilden+0.2
3020-10CINCYCINCY×5AceCincinnatiaced Ava Tilden+0.2
3121-10CINCYCINCY×5KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+0.1
3222-10CINCYCINCY×5Attack errCatherine Flaharty·
3323-10CINCYCINCY×5BlockedCameron Sherblk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic·
3423-11CINCYXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich·
3523-12XAVIERXAVIERBlockedAudrey Romeblk Charlotte Moriarty, Margo Kemp·
3624-12XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier·
3725-12CINCYCINCYAttack errCatherine Flaharty·
Set 2
11-0CINCYCINCYAttack errGabrielle Semona+2.0
22-0CINCYCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.9
32-1CINCYXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+1.4
42-2XAVIERXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+2.1
53-2XAVIERCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.5
64-2CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Cameron Sher+2.0
75-2CINCYCINCY×3Bad setMacy Hatkevich+1.9
85-3CINCYXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Kelsey Niesen+1.3
95-4XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+2.0
106-4XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier+1.5
116-5CINCYXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
126-6XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.3
137-6XAVIERCINCYKillKate Lijic+1.7
147-7CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+1.7
158-7XAVIERCINCYBlockedMargo Kempblk Audrey Rome, Andrea Simovski+1.7
168-8CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+1.8
179-8XAVIERCINCYAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+1.8
1810-8CINCYCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Viktoria Ninova+2.3
1910-9CINCYXAVIER×3KillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+1.7
2010-10XAVIERXAVIER×3AceXavier+2.5
2110-11XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Quinci Thomas+2.7
2211-11XAVIERCINCY×3Serve errXavier+1.9
2312-11CINCYCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Macy Hatkevich+2.7
2413-11CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+2.6
2513-12CINCYXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.8
2614-12XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.9
2714-13CINCYXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+1.9
2814-14XAVIERXAVIERBad setKate Lijic+3.0
2915-14XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier+2.2
3016-14CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+2.9
3116-15CINCYXAVIER×3KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+2.0
3216-16XAVIERXAVIER×3KillMacy Hatkevichset Viktoria Ninova+3.3
3316-17XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errAudrey Rome+3.6
3417-17XAVIERCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.5
3518-17CINCYCINCY×3KillLilian Entenmannset Kate Lijic+3.7
3619-17CINCYCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+3.5
3719-18CINCYXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.3
3820-18XAVIERCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.7
3921-18CINCYCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+3.1
4022-18CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Kasey Quenichet+2.2
4122-19CINCYXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
4222-20XAVIERXAVIERAttack errAndrea Simovski+2.2
4323-20XAVIERCINCY×3KillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.4
4424-20CINCYCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.8
4525-20CINCYCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Viktoria Ninova+0.5
Set 3
11-0XAVIERCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+0.9
21-1CINCYXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Charlotte Moriarty+0.9
32-1XAVIERCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+0.9
42-2CINCYXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
53-2XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.9
63-3CINCYXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Sydney Nolan+0.9
73-4XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.3
84-4XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.9
94-5CINCYXAVIER×3KillMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+1.0
104-6XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errAndrea Simovski+1.4
114-7XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriarty+1.4
125-7XAVIERCINCYAttack errMacy Hatkevich+0.9
135-8CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+1.1
146-8XAVIERCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+0.9
157-8CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Kelsey Niesen+1.4
168-8CINCYCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.5
178-9CINCYXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+1.1
189-9XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Viktoria Ninova+1.1
199-10CINCYXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+1.2
2010-10XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier+1.1
2110-11CINCYXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevich+1.2
2211-11XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.2
2311-12CINCYXAVIER×3KillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+1.2
2411-13XAVIERXAVIER×3KillMacy Hatkevichset Kasey Quenichet+1.8
2511-14XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errAndrea Simovski+1.7
2612-14XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier+1.1
2713-14CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.7
2813-15CINCYXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Charlotte Moriarty+1.4
2914-15XAVIERCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.3
3015-15CINCYCINCYBlockedCharlotte Moriartyblk Ligia Williams, Nina Scrucca+1.9
3115-16CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+1.5
3216-16XAVIERCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.4
3316-17CINCYXAVIERKillQuinci Thomasset Macy Hatkevich+1.6
3416-18XAVIERXAVIERKillCameron Sherset Macy Hatkevich+2.2
3517-18XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.4
3617-19CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+1.7
3717-20XAVIERXAVIERBad setKate Lijic+2.2
3818-20XAVIERCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.2
3919-20CINCYCINCY×3Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+2.2
4020-20CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Charlotte Moriarty+2.6
4120-21CINCYXAVIERAttack errSydney Nolan+2.2
4221-21XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.1
4321-22CINCYXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevich+2.5
4422-22XAVIERCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.4
4522-23CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+3.0
4622-24XAVIERXAVIERAttack errAndrea Simovski+4.0
4723-24XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier+1.6
4823-25CINCYXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+4.0
Set 4
10-1CINCYXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+2.1
21-1XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.1
31-2CINCYXAVIERKillCameron Sherset Macy Hatkevich+2.2
41-3XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Kelsey Niesen+3.1
52-3XAVIERCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.1
63-3CINCYCINCY×3Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+3.0
74-3CINCYCINCY×3BlockedMargo Kempblk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic+3.0
84-4CINCYXAVIERKillCameron Sherset Macy Hatkevich+2.2
95-4XAVIERCINCYServe errXavier+2.2
105-5CINCYXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+2.3
116-5XAVIERCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.3
127-5CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kayla Hostetler+3.0
137-6CINCYXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.2
147-7XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Elouise Czajkowski+3.3
158-7XAVIERCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.4
169-7CINCYCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Ligia Williams+3.2
179-8CINCYXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+2.3
1810-8XAVIERCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.4
1911-8CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+3.0
2011-9CINCYXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+2.0
2112-9XAVIERCINCYAttack errGabrielle Semona+2.2
2212-10CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+2.1
2313-10XAVIERCINCY×6Attack errMargo Kemp+2.3
2414-10CINCYCINCY×6Attack errCameron Sher+2.7
2515-10CINCYCINCY×6Bad setMacy Hatkevich+2.2
2616-10CINCYCINCY×6Attack errCameron Sher+1.6
2717-10CINCYCINCY×6KillSydney Nolanset Macy Hatkevich+1.1
2818-10CINCYCINCY×6Attack errMargo Kemp+0.7
2918-11CINCYXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.3
3018-12XAVIERXAVIERKillMargo Kempset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
3119-12XAVIERCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.7
3220-12CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Charlotte Moriarty+0.5
3321-12CINCYCINCY×3KillAudrey Romeset Kate Lijic+0.3
3421-13CINCYXAVIER×3KillCameron Sherset Macy Hatkevich+0.1
3521-14XAVIERXAVIER×3AceXavieraced Kayla Hostetler+0.2
3621-15XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedAndrea Simovskiblk Macy Hatkevich, Margo Kemp+0.4
3722-15XAVIERCINCYKillAudrey Romeset Kate Lijic+0.5
3822-16CINCYXAVIERServe errCincinnati+0.2
3923-16XAVIERCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.3
4024-16CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+0.1
4124-17CINCYXAVIERBlockedNina Scruccablk Charlotte Moriarty, Gabrielle Semona·
4225-17XAVIERCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic·

Score shown after each rally, Cincinnati first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).