North Carolina vs Virginia: North Carolina Wins 3-0 (Oct 11)

FinalSun, Oct 11, 2026ACCN

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: North Carolina 91.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 11, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

North Carolina won at Virginia 3-0 (25-13, 25-16, 25-15) on Sun, Oct 11, 2026. North Carolina's Safi Hampton led with 10 kills, and Julia Bohlinger added 14 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 4:00 PM CT · final Oct 11

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNC	25	25	25	3
UVA	13	16	15	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

No doubt about it: No. 25 North Carolina over Virginia.

No single rally moved win probability more than 1.1 points. Virginia peaked at 9% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had North Carolina at 92%.

North CarolinaVirginia

Break %+30.9 pts
54.823.9
Points won on own serve: 40 of 73 vs 11 of 46. Virginia sided out 45.2% of the time.
Hitting+.282
.322.040
Kills and errors: 40–12 vs 25–21.
Longest run+2
64
Down 1–3 in the second set, North Carolina scored 6 straight to lead 7–3. The set finished 25–16.

Virginia above 50North Carolina belowMax swing 1.1%

North CarolinaVirginia

Aces: North Carolina 4·Virginia 0
Serve err: North Carolina 6·Virginia 8
Blocks: North Carolina 11·Virginia 71 BS · 20 BA vs 2 BS · 10 BA
Digs: North Carolina 40·Virginia 30

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Virginia above 50 · North Carolina below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Virginia — set 1, UNC 0-1 UVA. Kill by Lauryn Bowie (set by Katie Barrier). UVA win probability 8% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UNC 96.9%3.1% UVA

North Carolina wins

3-0

61.8%

3-1

27.5%

3-2

7.6%

Virginia wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.8%

3-2

2.0%

UNC break %: 49.0% vs this opp
UVA break %: 34.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Lauryn BowieKill+1.1%
Kill by Lauryn Bowie (set by Katie Barrier)
Set 1 · UNC 0-1 UVA · UVA 8% → 9%
02
Safi HamptonKill+0.9%
Kill by Safi Hampton (set by Katie Barrier)
Set 1 · UNC 2-1 UVA · UNC 91% → 92%
03
Emily FowlerBad set+0.9%
Bad set by Emily Fowler
Set 1 · UNC 6-4 UVA · UNC 92% → 93%
04
Chelsea ThorpeAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Chelsea Thorpe
Set 2 · UNC 1-3 UVA · UVA 5% → 6%
05
Reagan EnnistAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Reagan Ennist
Set 1 · UNC 8-5 UVA · UNC 93% → 94%
06
Emily Fowler&Zoey DoodBlock+0.8%
Safi Hampton stuffed by Emily Fowler & Zoey Dood
Set 2 · UNC 13-12 UVA · UVA 3% → 4%
07
Emily FowlerKill+0.8%
Kill by Emily Fowler (set by Olivia Siskin)
Set 1 · UNC 4-4 UVA · UVA 8% → 9%
08
Lauryn BowieKill+0.7%
Kill by Lauryn Bowie (set by Hannah Scott)
Set 1 · UNC 3-3 UVA · UVA 8% → 9%

Box score

Official NCAA box

North Carolinaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Safi HamptonOH	3	10	4	26	.231	0	2	1	9	0	1	0.5	12.5
24Addison WestOH	3	7	2	14	.357	1	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
77Chelsea ThorpeOPP	3	8	3	12	.417	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	8.5
21Jackie TaylorMB	3	5	1	8	.500	1	0	2	1	1	5	3.5	8.5
3Lauren SchutterMB	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	3.5
1Zoe BehrendtS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
23Laynie SmithOPP	3	8	2	22	.273	0	0	0	2	0	5	2.5	10.5
8Sienna CozzaS	3	0	0	0	–	15	1	0	5	0	0	0	1
18Carly MarkhamL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0
6Julia BohlingerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	2	14	0	0	0	0
20Lindley MillerOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
5Meghan CliffordMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	12	87	.322	37	4	6	40	1	20	11	75

Virginiahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Emily FowlerMB	3	6	2	17	.235	0	2	1	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
33Lauryn BowieOH	3	5	2	18	.167	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	7
17Reese WuebkerOH	3	6	4	24	.083	0	2	4	1	0	0	0	6
5Caroline LangOH	3	1	0	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
1Meredith ReegL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
11Hannah ScottS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	10	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
2Reagan EnnistOH	3	4	7	20	-.150	0	0	2	1	0	2	1	5
10Zoey DoodS	3	1	1	3	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
3Katie BarrierDS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	9	1	0	0	0	0
14Olivia SiskinS	3	0	0	0	–	8	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
12MaryGrace GonyeauOH	2	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
8Ruby McDermottL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Skyler GatesMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
30Becca WightOH	1	0	3	4	-.750	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
24Sarah BrodnerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	21	99	.040	25	8	30	4	2	10	7	44

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 UNC · UVA 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 5 UNCUVA 2

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 6 UNCUVA 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 6 UNCUVA 3

Bars above the line = Virginia leads, below = North Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	55%6/11	56%5/9
2	60%6/10	50%6/12
3	100%6/6	67%12/18
4	100%6/6	50%6/12
5	86%6/7	40%4/10
6	83%5/6	58%7/12
All	76%35/46	55%40/73

Virginia

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	35%6/17	45%5/11
2	50%6/12	0%0/6
3	33%6/18	40%4/10
4	75%6/8	0%0/6
5	36%5/14	14%1/7
6	100%4/4	17%1/6
All	45%33/73	24%11/46

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

119 rallies

#	UNC-UVA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UVA	UVA	Kill	Lauryn Bowie	set Katie Barrier	+1.1
2	1-1	UVA	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Addison West	+0.7
3	2-1	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Katie Barrier	+0.9
4	2-2	UNC	UVA	Kill	Reese Wuebker	set Hannah Scott	+0.7
5	3-2	UVA	UNC	Bad set	Hannah Scott		+0.6
6	3-3	UNC	UVA	Kill	Lauryn Bowie	set Hannah Scott	+0.7
7	4-3	UVA	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+0.7
8	4-4	UNC	UVA	Kill	Emily Fowler	set Olivia Siskin	+0.8
9	5-4	UVA	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.7
10	6-4	UNC	UNC	Bad set	Emily Fowler		+0.9
11	6-5	UNC	UVA	Serve err	North Carolina		+0.7
12	7-5	UVA	UNC×5	Kill	Addison West	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.6
13	8-5	UNC	UNC×5	Attack err	Reagan Ennist		+0.8
14	9-5	UNC	UNC×5	Blocked	Becca Wight	blk Jackie Taylor, Addison West	+0.6
15	10-5	UNC	UNC×5	Blocked	Becca Wight	blk Jackie Taylor, Addison West	+0.5
16	11-5	UNC	UNC×5	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.4
17	11-6	UNC	UVA	Kill	Reagan Ennist	set Olivia Siskin	+0.2
18	11-7	UVA	UVA	Kill	Reese Wuebker	set Hannah Scott	+0.4
19	12-7	UVA	UNC	Blocked	Reagan Ennist	blk Jackie Taylor	+0.3
20	12-8	UNC	UVA	Kill	Reagan Ennist	set Hannah Scott	+0.3
21	12-9	UVA	UVA	Blocked	Jackie Taylor	blk Lauryn Bowie	+0.6
22	13-9	UVA	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.5
23	14-9	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Hannah Scott		+0.5
24	15-9	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Reese Wuebker		+0.4
25	15-10	UNC	UVA	Kill	Lauryn Bowie	set Hannah Scott	+0.2
26	16-10	UVA	UNC×4	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
27	17-10	UNC	UNC×4	Attack err	Emily Fowler		+0.2
28	18-10	UNC	UNC×4	Blocked	Reese Wuebker	blk Laynie Smith, Lauren Schutter	+0.1
29	19-10	UNC	UNC×4	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.1
30	19-11	UNC	UVA	Blocked	Addison West	blk Emily Fowler	·
31	20-11	UVA	UNC	Blocked	Reese Wuebker	blk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith	·
32	21-11	UNC	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Katie Barrier	·
33	21-12	UNC	UVA	Serve err	North Carolina		·
34	22-12	UVA	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	·
35	22-13	UNC	UVA	Kill	Emily Fowler	set Olivia Siskin	·
36	23-13	UVA	UNC×3	Serve err	Virginia		·
37	24-13	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Becca Wight		·
38	25-13	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Addison West	set Zoe Behrendt	·
Set 2
1	0-1	UNC	UVA	Kill	Reagan Ennist	set Katie Barrier	+0.5
2	1-1	UVA	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.5
3	1-2	UNC	UVA	Serve err	North Carolina		+0.5
4	1-3	UVA	UVA	Attack err	Chelsea Thorpe		+0.8
5	2-3	UVA	UNC×6	Serve err	Virginia		+0.5
6	3-3	UNC	UNC×6	Blocked	Reagan Ennist	blk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith	+0.7
7	4-3	UNC	UNC×6	Blocked	Zoey Dood	blk Safi Hampton, Lauren Schutter	+0.7
8	5-3	UNC	UNC×6	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.6
9	6-3	UNC	UNC×6	Blocked	Reagan Ennist	blk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith	+0.5
10	7-3	UNC	UNC×6	Ace	North Carolina	aced Reese Wuebker	+0.4
11	7-4	UNC	UVA	Kill	Emily Fowler	set Olivia Siskin	+0.3
12	8-4	UVA	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+0.3
13	8-5	UNC	UVA	Kill	Zoey Dood	set Meredith Reeg	+0.3
14	9-5	UVA	UNC	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Sienna Cozza	+0.3
15	10-5	UNC	UNC	Blocked	Reese Wuebker	blk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith	+0.3
16	10-6	UNC	UVA	Kill	Reese Wuebker	set Katie Barrier	+0.2
17	11-6	UVA	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
18	11-7	UNC	UVA	Attack err	Chelsea Thorpe		+0.2
19	12-7	UVA	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.2
20	12-8	UNC	UVA	Serve err	North Carolina		+0.2
21	13-8	UVA	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
22	13-9	UNC	UVA×4	Kill	Reagan Ennist	set Hannah Scott	+0.2
23	13-10	UVA	UVA×4	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+0.4
24	13-11	UVA	UVA×4	Blocked	Chelsea Thorpe	blk Emily Fowler, Reagan Ennist	+0.6
25	13-12	UVA	UVA×4	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Emily Fowler, Zoey Dood	+0.8
26	14-12	UVA	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.6
27	15-12	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Emily Fowler		+0.7
28	15-13	UNC	UVA	Blocked	Laynie Smith	blk Reagan Ennist, Emily Fowler	+0.4
29	16-13	UVA	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Julia Bohlinger	+0.5
30	16-14	UNC	UVA	Kill	Emily Fowler	set Olivia Siskin	+0.5
31	17-14	UVA	UNC	Serve err	Virginia		+0.5
32	18-14	UNC	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith		+0.5
33	18-15	UNC	UVA	Kill	Reese Wuebker	set Olivia Siskin	+0.3
34	19-15	UVA	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Sienna Cozza	+0.4
35	19-16	UNC	UVA	Kill	Meredith Reeg	set Katie Barrier	+0.3
36	20-16	UVA	UNC×6	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.4
37	21-16	UNC	UNC×6	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
38	22-16	UNC	UNC×6	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
39	23-16	UNC	UNC×6	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.1
40	24-16	UNC	UNC×6	Blocked	Reagan Ennist	blk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe	·
41	25-16	UNC	UNC×6	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	·
Set 3
1	0-1	UVA	UVA×3	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Caroline Lang, Lauryn Bowie	+0.3
2	0-2	UVA	UVA×3	Blocked	Safi Hampton	blk Caroline Lang, Lauryn Bowie	+0.4
3	0-3	UVA	UVA×3	Bad set	Carly Markham		+0.4
4	1-3	UVA	UNC×4	Serve err	Virginia		+0.3
5	2-3	UNC	UNC×4	Attack err	Lauryn Bowie		+0.4
6	3-3	UNC	UNC×4	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Jackie Taylor	+0.3
7	4-3	UNC	UNC×4	Attack err	Reagan Ennist		+0.3
8	4-4	UNC	UVA	Kill	Lauryn Bowie	set Hannah Scott	+0.2
9	5-4	UVA	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
10	5-5	UNC	UVA	Kill	Emily Fowler	set Hannah Scott	+0.2
11	6-5	UVA	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
12	6-6	UNC	UVA	Kill	Emily Fowler	set Zoey Dood	+0.3
13	7-6	UVA	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
14	8-6	UNC	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Sienna Cozza	+0.3
15	8-7	UNC	UVA	Kill	Reese Wuebker	set Olivia Siskin	+0.2
16	9-7	UVA	UNC	Serve err	Virginia		+0.2
17	9-8	UNC	UVA	Attack err	Addison West		+0.2
18	10-8	UVA	UNC	Blocked	Lauryn Bowie	blk Jackie Taylor, Addison West	+0.2
19	10-9	UNC	UVA	Kill	Caroline Lang	set Hannah Scott	+0.2
20	11-9	UVA	UNC	Serve err	Virginia		+0.2
21	11-10	UNC	UVA	Serve err	North Carolina		+0.3
22	12-10	UVA	UNC×4	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
23	13-10	UNC	UNC×4	Attack err	Reagan Ennist		+0.3
24	14-10	UNC	UNC×4	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
25	15-10	UNC	UNC×4	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Sienna Cozza	+0.2
26	15-11	UNC	UVA	Kill	Lauryn Bowie	set Hannah Scott	+0.1
27	16-11	UVA	UNC×6	Serve err	Virginia		+0.1
28	17-11	UNC	UNC×6	Ace	North Carolina	aced Reagan Ennist	+0.1
29	18-11	UNC	UNC×6	Ace	North Carolina	aced MaryGrace Gonyeau	+0.1
30	19-11	UNC	UNC×6	Attack err	MaryGrace Gonyeau		·
31	20-11	UNC	UNC×6	Kill	Addison West	set Julia Bohlinger	·
32	21-11	UNC	UNC×6	Kill	Addison West	set Sienna Cozza	·
33	21-12	UNC	UVA	Kill	Skyler Gates	set Olivia Siskin	·
34	22-12	UVA	UNC	Kill	Addison West	set Julia Bohlinger	·
35	22-13	UNC	UVA	Serve err	North Carolina		·
36	22-14	UVA	UVA	Attack err	Laynie Smith		·
37	23-14	UVA	UNC	Serve err	Virginia		·
38	24-14	UNC	UNC	Ace	North Carolina	aced Katie Barrier	·
39	24-15	UNC	UVA	Kill	Reese Wuebker	set Katie Barrier	·
40	25-15	UVA	UNC	Kill	Lindley Miller	set Zoe Behrendt	·

Score shown after each rally, North Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

North Carolina def. Virginia 3–0

No doubt about it: No. 25 North Carolina over Virginia.