FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayMEAC

0:3

HomeATLANTIC-10

Duquesne def. UMES 3–0

(25-19, 25-21, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UMES	19	21	15	0
DUQSNE	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DUQSNE above 50 · UMES below

Biggest swing: 0.4% to UMES — set 2, UMES 20-19 DUQSNE. Kill by Malaysia Shaw (set by Chloe Wilmot). DUQSNE win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UMES 0.9%99.1% DUQSNE

UMES wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.6%

Duquesne wins

3-0

74.8%

3-1

20.7%

3-2

3.6%

UMES break %: 34.8% vs this opp
DUQSNE break %: 52.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Malaysia ShawKill+0.4%
Kill by Malaysia Shaw (set by Chloe Wilmot)
Set 2 · UMES 20-19 DUQSNE · UMES 1% → 1%
02
Kaylie BaumgartKill+0.3%
Kill by Kaylie Baumgart
Set 2 · UMES 20-21 DUQSNE · DUQSNE 99% → 99%
03
Chloe WilmotBad set+0.3%
Bad set by Chloe Wilmot
Set 2 · UMES 19-19 DUQSNE · UMES 1% → 1%
04
Simone SearlesKill+0.3%
Kill by Simone Searles (set by Chloe Wilmot)
Set 2 · UMES 20-20 DUQSNE · DUQSNE 99% → 99%
05
UMES serverAce+0.3%
UMES ace on Emersen Schrom
Set 1 · UMES 4-1 DUQSNE · UMES 1% → 2%
06
Simone SearlesKill+0.3%
Kill by Simone Searles (set by Alexa Flowers)
Set 2 · UMES 20-22 DUQSNE · DUQSNE 99% → 100%
07
Madeleine BushAttack error+0.2%
Attack error by Madeleine Bush
Set 1 · UMES 3-1 DUQSNE · UMES 1% → 1%
08
Madeleine BushKill+0.2%
Kill by Madeleine Bush (set by Chloe Wilmot)
Set 1 · UMES 4-3 DUQSNE · DUQSNE 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UMESaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Malaysia ShawMB	3	8	4	17	.235	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8
7Jayda HutchinsS	3	6	1	25	.200	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	6
11Karielys MelendezOH	3	2	3	15	-.067	1	3	1	6	2	0	0	0	5
30Dynasty AndrewsMB	3	0	1	6	-.167	1	3	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
6Jaslyn DawkinsOH	3	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
3Kate - Linh EdenOH	3	0	0	0	–	11	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
9Rayah HowellMB	3	6	2	14	.286	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
1Arianna Warner TorresS	3	1	1	4	.000	11	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
10Lila BryantL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	1	12	1	0	0	0	0
15Jaelyn StewartDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
18Gabrielle McCoyOPP	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		26	13	93	.140	24	6	4	36	7	1	2	2	55

Duquesnehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Simone SearlesOH	3	16	0	25	.640	0	1	1	10	0	0	2	1	18
11Emersen SchromOH	3	11	4	28	.250	0	4	3	9	2	0	0	0	15
8Londyn StoneOH	3	8	1	16	.438	1	1	2	5	3	0	1	0.5	9.5
14Jordan RobertsonMB	3	8	1	12	.583	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	9
2Chloe WilmotS	3	0	0	2	.000	42	0	3	2	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
4Madeleine BushMB	1	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
16Alexa FlowersDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	13	0	0	0	0	0
10Delaney McIntoshL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
6Charlotte ArringtonOH	1	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
7Mirabella IriarteMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Kaylie BaumgartMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
5Keely McMahon-ReganS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
12Ryan HicksS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	9	97	.412	48	7	13	47	6	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UMES · DUQSNE 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 UMESDUQSNE 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 UMESDUQSNE 5

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 3 UMESDUQSNE 5

Bars above the line = Duquesne leads, below = UMES leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UMES

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	30%3/10
2	35%7/20	50%7/14
3	50%6/12	0%0/7
4	60%6/10	25%2/8
5	60%6/10	40%4/10
6	56%5/9	25%2/8
All	51%37/73	32%18/57

Duquesne

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	50%6/12
2	70%7/10	46%6/13
3	86%6/7	63%10/16
4	75%6/8	50%6/12
5	60%6/10	40%4/10
6	86%6/7	40%4/10
All	68%39/57	49%36/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	UMES-DUQSNE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
2	1-1	DUQSNE	UMES×4	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
3	2-1	UMES	UMES×4	Ace	UMES server	aced Emersen Schrom	+0.2
4	3-1	UMES	UMES×4	Attack err	Madeleine Bush		+0.2
5	4-1	UMES	UMES×4	Ace	UMES server	aced Emersen Schrom	+0.3
6	4-2	UMES	DUQSNE×4	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.2
7	4-3	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Kill	Madeleine Bush	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.2
8	4-4	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Team	+0.2
9	4-5	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Attack err	Jaslyn Dawkins	blk Londyn Stone, Madeleine Bush	+0.2
10	5-5	DUQSNE	UMES	Attack err	Emersen Schrom		+0.1
11	5-6	UMES	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
12	5-7	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
13	5-8	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
14	6-8	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Arianna Warner Torres		+0.1
15	6-9	UMES	DUQSNE	Attack err	Karielys Melendez	blk Simone Searles, Jordan Robertson	+0.1
16	7-9	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.1
17	7-10	UMES	DUQSNE×3	Attack err	Karielys Melendez		+0.1
18	7-11	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Attack err	Arianna Warner Torres		+0.1
19	7-12	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
20	8-12	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
21	8-13	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
22	9-13	DUQSNE	UMES	Attack err	Emersen Schrom		+0.0
23	10-13	UMES	UMES	Attack err	Londyn Stone		+0.1
24	10-14	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Madeleine Bush	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
25	11-14	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.1
26	11-15	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
27	12-15	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
28	12-16	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
29	12-17	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Attack err	Karielys Melendez	blk Jordan Robertson, Simone Searles	+0.1
30	13-17	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.1
31	13-18	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
32	14-18	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.1
33	15-18	UMES	UMES	Attack err	Jordan Robertson		+0.1
34	15-19	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
35	15-20	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
36	16-20	DUQSNE	UMES	Attack err	Emersen Schrom	blk Dynasty Andrews, Rayah Howell	+0.0
37	16-21	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
38	16-22	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Bad set	Lila Bryant		+0.0
39	17-22	DUQSNE	UMES×3	Kill	Jaslyn Dawkins	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.0
40	18-22	UMES	UMES×3	Ace	UMES server	aced Londyn Stone	+0.0
41	19-22	UMES	UMES×3	Attack err	Emersen Schrom		+0.1
42	19-23	UMES	DUQSNE×3	Serve err	UMES server		+0.1
43	19-24	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
44	19-25	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Karielys Melendez	+0.1
2	2-0	UMES	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.1
3	2-1	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
4	3-1	DUQSNE	UMES	Attack err	Kaylie Baumgart		+0.1
5	3-2	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
6	4-2	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.1
7	4-3	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
8	4-4	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Jayda Hutchins	+0.1
9	5-4	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Jaslyn Dawkins	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.1
10	6-4	UMES	UMES	Ace	UMES server	aced Londyn Stone	+0.2
11	6-5	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
12	6-6	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Lila Bryant	+0.1
13	7-6	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
14	8-6	UMES	UMES	Ace	UMES server	aced Londyn Stone	+0.2
15	8-7	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
16	8-8	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
17	9-8	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.1
18	9-9	UMES	DUQSNE×4	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
19	9-10	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Attack err	Malaysia Shaw		+0.1
20	9-11	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
21	9-12	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×4	Bad set	Arianna Warner Torres		+0.1
22	10-12	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.1
23	10-13	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
24	11-13	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.1
25	11-14	UMES	DUQSNE	Serve err	UMES server		+0.1
26	11-15	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Attack err	Rayah Howell		+0.1
27	12-15	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.0
28	13-15	UMES	UMES	Kill	Karielys Melendez	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.1
29	13-16	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
30	14-16	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
31	14-17	UMES	DUQSNE	Attack err	Dynasty Andrews		+0.1
32	15-17	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.1
33	15-18	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
34	16-18	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.1
35	16-19	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.1
36	17-19	DUQSNE	UMES×4	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.1
37	18-19	UMES	UMES×4	Kill	Rayah Howell	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.2
38	19-19	UMES	UMES×4	Bad set	Chloe Wilmot		+0.3
39	20-19	UMES	UMES×4	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.4
40	20-20	UMES	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.3
41	20-21	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Kaylie Baumgart		+0.3
42	20-22	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Simone Searles	set Alexa Flowers	+0.3
43	20-23	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Team	+0.2
44	20-24	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Karielys Melendez	+0.1
45	21-24	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.0
46	21-25	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
2	1-1	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Arianna Warner Torres	+0.0
3	1-2	UMES	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
4	1-3	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Attack err	Rayah Howell		+0.0
5	1-4	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Mirabella Iriarte	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
6	1-5	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
7	1-6	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×5	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
8	2-6	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
9	2-7	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
10	2-8	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
11	3-8	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
12	3-9	UMES	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Londyn Stone	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
13	3-10	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Karielys Melendez	+0.0
14	3-11	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Londyn Stone	+0.0
15	4-11	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
16	4-12	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
17	5-12	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Dynasty Andrews	+0.0
18	5-13	UMES	DUQSNE	Attack err	Malaysia Shaw	blk Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
19	5-14	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Emersen Schrom	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
20	6-14	DUQSNE	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.0
21	6-15	UMES	DUQSNE	Attack err	Jayda Hutchins	blk Mirabella Iriarte, Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
22	7-15	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
23	7-16	UMES	DUQSNE×3	Serve err	UMES server		+0.0
24	7-17	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Attack err	Malaysia Shaw		+0.0
25	7-18	DUQSNE	DUQSNE×3	Ace	DUQSNE server	aced Jaelyn Stewart	+0.0
26	8-18	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
27	8-19	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Simone Searles	set Delaney McIntosh	+0.0
28	8-20	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Chloe Wilmot	+0.0
29	9-20	DUQSNE	UMES	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
30	10-20	UMES	UMES	Kill	Gabrielle McCoy	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.0
31	10-21	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Charlotte Arrington	set Ryan Hicks	+0.0
32	10-22	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Kill	Charlotte Arrington	set Ryan Hicks	+0.0
33	11-22	DUQSNE	UMES×3	Serve err	DUQSNE server		+0.0
34	12-22	UMES	UMES×3	Kill	Jayda Hutchins	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.0
35	13-22	UMES	UMES×3	Ace	UMES server	aced Charlotte Arrington	+0.0
36	13-23	UMES	DUQSNE	Kill	Jordan Robertson	set Ryan Hicks	+0.0
37	14-23	DUQSNE	UMES	Attack err	Charlotte Arrington	blk Dynasty Andrews	+0.0
38	15-23	UMES	UMES	Kill	Malaysia Shaw	set Kate - Linh Eden	+0.0
39	15-24	UMES	DUQSNE	Serve err	UMES server		+0.0
40	15-25	DUQSNE	DUQSNE	Attack err	Malaysia Shaw		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UMES first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.