FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeMETRO

Ohio def. Niagara 3–0

(25-10, 25-11, 25-10)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OHIO	25	25	25	3
NIAGRA	10	11	10	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NIAGRA above 50 · OHIO below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Niagara — set 1, OHIO 3-3 NIAGRA. Attack error by Emily Waddell. NIAGRA win probability 0% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OHIO 99.6%0.4% NIAGRA

Ohio wins

3-0

80.4%

3-1

16.9%

3-2

2.2%

Niagara wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.3%

OHIO break %: 52.1% vs this opp
NIAGRA break %: 32.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emily WaddellAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Emily Waddell
Set 1 · OHIO 3-3 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 0% → 0%
02
Bailey BlairKill+0.1%
Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 1 · OHIO 5-3 NIAGRA · OHIO 100% → 100%
03
Payton LeeKill+0.1%
Kill by Payton Lee (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)
Set 1 · OHIO 1-1 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 0% → 0%
04
Bailey BlairKill+0.1%
Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 1 · OHIO 3-1 NIAGRA · OHIO 100% → 100%
05
Bailey BlairKill+0.1%
Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 1 · OHIO 4-3 NIAGRA · OHIO 100% → 100%
06
OHIO serverAce+0.0%
Ohio ace on Kaitlyn Doyle
Set 1 · OHIO 6-3 NIAGRA · OHIO 100% → 100%
07
NIAGRA serverService error+0.0%
Niagara service error
Set 1 · OHIO 2-1 NIAGRA · OHIO 100% → 100%
08
Katelynn RottmanKill+0.0%
Kill by Katelynn Rottman (set by Paisley Ka’ahanui)
Set 1 · OHIO 3-2 NIAGRA · NIAGRA 0% → 0%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ohioaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BA	BLK	PTS
4Torre KildowOH	3	11	2	19	.474	2	1	0	7	2	1	13
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	9	2	15	.467	0	1	0	0	2	1	11
23Olivia GardnerMB	3	9	0	13	.692	0	0	0	0	4	2	11
7Rose MahinOH	3	8	0	10	.800	1	1	1	7	2	1	10
11Emily WaddellMB	3	6	3	13	.231	1	0	0	3	4	2	8
10Rowan KellyS	3	3	0	4	.750	30	0	0	7	2	1	4
22Lacy MarxL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	5	0	0	1
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
6Caroline CurranL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	4	1	2	4	0	0	1
18Lillie MeinhartS	1	2	0	2	1.000	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
3Gentry BrownOH	1	1	0	6	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
15Sierra EvansMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Kendall HickeyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
Team totals		49	7	83	.506	44	5	4	36	16	8	75

Niagarahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
18Katelynn RottmanOH	3	5	6	21	-.048	0	1	3	2	1	0.5	5.5
17Payton LeeOH	3	3	4	13	-.077	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	3.5
13Kaitlyn DoyleOH	3	1	5	9	-.444	0	0	3	3	1	0.5	1.5
7Taylor JenkinsMB	3	1	0	5	.200	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
3Paisley Ka’ahanuiS	3	1	0	1	1.000	7	0	4	0	0	0	1
10Jakayla BrownMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Kadence GoolsbyOH	3	8	3	16	.313	0	0	1	0	0	0	8
14Noel PerkinsOH	3	0	0	1	.000	11	0	5	0	0	0	0
2Ashley MorelandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	5	0	0	0	0
9Elyannah SonzaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11Chloe MorelandOH	1	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Natasa LjubicicMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Sole RancyMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		20	19	75	.013	19	1	25	5	6	3	31

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 OHIO · NIAGRA 2

Set 1

25-10

Longest run 6 OHIONIAGRA 2

Set 2

25-11

Longest run 6 OHIONIAGRA 1

Set 3

25-10

Longest run 7 OHIONIAGRA 2

Bars above the line = Niagara leads, below = Ohio leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%6/6	67%8/12
2	86%6/7	57%8/14
3	86%6/7	50%6/12
4	83%5/6	67%10/15
5	100%4/4	64%7/11
6	100%3/3	67%6/9
All	91%30/33	62%45/73

Niagara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	35%6/17	0%0/5
2	50%6/12	14%1/7
3	36%5/14	14%1/7
4	31%4/13	17%1/6
5	100%4/4	0%0/4
6	23%3/13	0%0/4
All	38%28/73	9%3/33

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

106 rallies

Rally log

#	OHIO-NIAGRA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
2	1-1	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.1
3	2-1	NIAGRA	OHIO	Serve err	NIAGRA server		+0.0
4	3-1	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
5	3-2	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
6	3-3	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.1
7	4-3	NIAGRA	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
8	5-3	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
9	6-3	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
10	6-4	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
11	7-4	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Lacy Marx	+0.0
12	8-4	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Katelynn Rottman	+0.0
13	8-5	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
14	9-5	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
15	9-6	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
16	10-6	NIAGRA	OHIO×5	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
17	11-6	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby	blk Olivia Gardner, Rose Mahin	+0.0
18	12-6	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
19	13-6	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Torre Kildow	+0.0
20	14-6	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Torre Kildow	+0.0
21	14-7	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
22	15-7	NIAGRA	OHIO×4	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
23	16-7	OHIO	OHIO×4	Ace	OHIO server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
24	17-7	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
25	18-7	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
26	18-8	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Payton Lee	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
27	18-9	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Attack err	Bailey Blair	blk Kaitlyn Doyle, Taylor Jenkins	+0.0
28	19-9	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
29	19-10	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kaitlyn Doyle	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
30	20-10	NIAGRA	OHIO×6	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
31	21-10	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Torre Kildow		+0.0
32	22-10	OHIO	OHIO×6	Attack err	Kaitlyn Doyle	blk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell	+0.0
33	23-10	OHIO	OHIO×6	Attack err	Kaitlyn Doyle		+0.0
34	24-10	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Torre Kildow		+0.0
35	25-10	OHIO	OHIO×6	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.0
2	2-0	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
3	3-0	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
4	3-1	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
5	4-1	NIAGRA	OHIO	Attack err	Kaitlyn Doyle	blk Rose Mahin, Olivia Gardner	+0.0
6	5-1	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Payton Lee	blk Olivia Gardner, Torre Kildow	+0.0
7	5-2	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Paisley Ka’ahanui	set Ashley Moreland	+0.0
8	6-2	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
9	6-3	OHIO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.0
10	7-3	NIAGRA	OHIO×3	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
11	8-3	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Katelynn Rottman	+0.0
12	9-3	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rose Mahin	+0.0
13	9-4	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
14	10-4	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
15	10-5	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
16	11-5	NIAGRA	OHIO	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
17	12-5	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Kaitlyn Doyle		+0.0
18	12-6	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
19	13-6	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
20	14-6	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
21	14-7	OHIO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Bailey Blair	blk Sole Rancy, Payton Lee	+0.0
22	15-7	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
23	15-8	OHIO	NIAGRA	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0
24	16-8	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
25	17-8	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
26	17-9	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Taylor Jenkins		+0.0
27	18-9	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
28	18-10	OHIO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+0.0
29	19-10	NIAGRA	OHIO	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby	blk Torre Kildow, Emily Waddell	+0.0
30	19-11	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
31	20-11	NIAGRA	OHIO×6	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Caroline Curran	+0.0
32	21-11	OHIO	OHIO×6	Bad set	Noel Perkins		+0.0
33	22-11	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Caroline Curran	+0.0
34	23-11	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
35	24-11	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
36	25-11	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NIAGRA	OHIO×5	Kill	Rose Mahin		+0.0
2	2-0	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
3	3-0	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Payton Lee	blk Olivia Gardner, Bailey Blair	+0.0
4	4-0	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
5	5-0	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Payton Lee		+0.0
6	5-1	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Katelynn Rottman	set Paisley Ka’ahanui	+0.0
7	6-1	NIAGRA	OHIO×5	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
8	7-1	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Kaitlyn Doyle	blk Emily Waddell, Bailey Blair	+0.0
9	8-1	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Ashley Moreland	+0.0
10	9-1	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
11	10-1	OHIO	OHIO×5	Ace	OHIO server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
12	10-2	OHIO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.0
13	11-2	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
14	11-3	OHIO	NIAGRA	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0
15	12-3	NIAGRA	OHIO×7	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
16	13-3	OHIO	OHIO×7	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Rowan Kelly	+0.0
17	14-3	OHIO	OHIO×7	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Emily Waddell	+0.0
18	15-3	OHIO	OHIO×7	Attack err	Kadence Goolsby	blk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell	+0.0
19	16-3	OHIO	OHIO×7	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Caroline Curran	+0.0
20	17-3	OHIO	OHIO×7	Attack err	Chloe Moreland		+0.0
21	18-3	OHIO	OHIO×7	Attack err	Katelynn Rottman		+0.0
22	18-4	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
23	19-4	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Lillie Meinhart	set Caroline Curran	+0.0
24	19-5	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
25	20-5	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Lillie Meinhart	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
26	20-6	OHIO	NIAGRA	Kill	Kadence Goolsby	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
27	21-6	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
28	21-7	OHIO	NIAGRA	Attack err	Torre Kildow	blk Katelynn Rottman, Natasa Ljubicic	+0.0
29	22-7	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
30	22-8	OHIO	NIAGRA	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0
31	23-8	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
32	24-8	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
33	24-9	OHIO	NIAGRA	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0
34	24-10	NIAGRA	NIAGRA	Kill	Chloe Moreland	set Noel Perkins	+0.0
35	25-10	NIAGRA	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Ohio first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.