FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayMAC

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Penn St. def. Ohio 3–0

(25-21, 25-23, 25-9)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
OHIO	21	23	9	0
PENNST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

PENNST above 50 · OHIO below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Ohio — set 2, OHIO 23-23 PENNST. Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Bryn Janke). PENNST win probability 99% → 98%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OHIO 2.9%97.1% PENNST

Ohio wins

3-0

0.3%

3-1

0.8%

3-2

1.8%

Penn St. wins

3-0

62.9%

3-1

27.0%

3-2

7.2%

OHIO break %: 35.7% vs this opp
PENNST break %: 50.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Bailey BlairKill+1.1%
Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Bryn Janke)
Set 2 · OHIO 23-23 PENNST · OHIO 1% → 2%
02
Caroline JureviciusKill+1.0%
Kill by Caroline Jurevicius (set by Danielle Whitmire)
Set 2 · OHIO 23-24 PENNST · PENNST 98% → 99%
03
Finley KrystkowiakKill+1.0%
Kill by Finley Krystkowiak
Set 2 · OHIO 23-25 PENNST · PENNST 99% → 100%
04
OHIO serverAce+0.9%
Ohio ace on Team
Set 1 · OHIO 14-13 PENNST · OHIO 4% → 4%
05
OHIO serverAce+0.9%
Ohio ace on Whitney Lauenstein
Set 1 · OHIO 21-22 PENNST · OHIO 2% → 3%
06
OHIO serverService error+0.8%
Ohio service error
Set 1 · OHIO 21-23 PENNST · PENNST 97% → 98%
07
Gentry BrownAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Gentry Brown
Set 1 · OHIO 15-16 PENNST · PENNST 96% → 97%
08
Bailey BlairKill+0.8%
Kill by Bailey Blair (set by Bryn Janke)
Set 1 · OHIO 19-20 PENNST · OHIO 2% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ohioaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	11	6	25	.200	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	11.5
7Rose MahinOH	3	6	5	17	.059	1	2	4	4	5	0	0	8
3Gentry BrownOH	3	4	4	15	.000	2	0	0	5	3	2	1	5
23Olivia GardnerMB	3	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
11Emily WaddellMB	3	2	2	10	.000	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	3
10Rowan KellyS	1	1	0	1	1.000	5	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
13Bryn JankeS	3	1	0	1	1.000	11	1	0	2	0	0	0	2
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	2
22Lacy MarxL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	1
18Lillie MeinhartS	3	0	0	1	.000	7	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2Kendall HickeyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Caroline CurranL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Cienna LapsleyMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	18	80	.138	26	5	6	22	11	6	3	53

Penn St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Haley BurgdorfOH	3	6	2	10	.400	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	6.5
8Gabrielle NicholsMB	2	5	3	11	.182	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
7Ryla JonesMB	2	3	0	4	.750	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	4
26Whitney LauensteinOH	1	3	3	7	.000	1	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Alexis StuckyS	1	2	1	6	.167	8	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	3
18Kennedy MartinOH	1	1	0	4	.250	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
2Ava FaldutoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
11Jocelyn NathanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
14Caroline JureviciusOH	2	6	1	8	.625	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	10
3Danielle WhitmireS	2	1	0	2	.500	21	4	1	2	0	0	2	1	6
13Emmi SellmanOH	2	3	1	8	.250	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Kendall NorthernMB	2	2	3	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	4.5
42Finley KrystkowiakOH	2	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
9Lexi GinDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27Alexis EwingOH	1	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
10Ava JureviciusDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	15	76	.303	31	11	4	24	5	1	17	9.5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 OHIO · PENNST 8

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 6 OHIOPENNST 3

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 OHIOPENNST 4

Set 3

9-25

Longest run 3 OHIOPENNST 8

Bars above the line = Penn St. leads, below = Ohio leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	40%4/10
2	43%6/14	38%5/13
3	42%5/12	50%6/12
4	50%5/10	0%0/5
5	38%5/13	44%4/9
6	71%5/7	0%0/5
All	46%34/74	35%19/54

Penn St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	56%9/16
2	46%6/13	57%8/14
3	86%6/7	40%4/10
4	83%5/6	67%10/15
5	63%5/8	62%8/13
6	83%5/6	17%1/6
All	65%35/54	54%40/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	OHIO-PENNST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Bailey Blair	blk Ryla Jones, Alexis Stucky	+0.3
2	0-2	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Gentry Brown		+0.3
3	1-2	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
4	1-3	OHIO	PENNST	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.2
5	2-3	PENNST	OHIO	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.3
6	2-4	OHIO	PENNST×3	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
7	2-5	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.3
8	2-6	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
9	3-6	PENNST	OHIO	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		+0.2
10	3-7	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
11	3-8	PENNST	PENNST	Bad set	Rowan Kelly		+0.2
12	4-8	PENNST	OHIO	Attack err	Alexis Stucky		+0.1
13	5-8	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Gabrielle Nichols		+0.2
14	5-9	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
15	6-9	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Rose Mahin	+0.2
16	6-10	OHIO	PENNST	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.2
17	7-10	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
18	7-11	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
19	8-11	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
20	8-12	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.2
21	8-13	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Gentry Brown		+0.2
22	9-13	PENNST	OHIO×6	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+0.1
23	10-13	OHIO	OHIO×6	Ace	OHIO server	aced Haley Burgdorf	+0.3
24	11-13	OHIO	OHIO×6	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Rowan Kelly	+0.4
25	12-13	OHIO	OHIO×6	Attack err	Gabrielle Nichols	blk Emily Waddell, Gentry Brown	+0.5
26	13-13	OHIO	OHIO×6	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Emily Waddell, Bailey Blair	+0.7
27	14-13	OHIO	OHIO×6	Ace	OHIO server	aced Team	+0.9
28	14-14	OHIO	PENNST	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Alexis Stucky, Gabrielle Nichols, Whitney Lauenstein	+0.6
29	15-14	PENNST	OHIO	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		+0.7
30	15-15	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
31	15-16	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Gentry Brown		+0.8
32	16-16	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.6
33	16-17	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
34	16-18	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.7
35	17-18	PENNST	OHIO	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.5
36	17-19	OHIO	PENNST	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Ryla Jones, Kennedy Martin	+0.5
37	17-20	PENNST	PENNST	Ace	PENNST server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.6
38	18-20	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.4
39	19-20	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+0.8
40	19-21	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Lacy Marx	+0.7
41	19-22	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
42	20-22	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+0.3
43	21-22	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Whitney Lauenstein	+0.9
44	21-23	OHIO	PENNST×3	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.8
45	21-24	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Alexis Stucky	set Bryn Janke	+0.7
46	21-25	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Alexis Stucky	set Whitney Lauenstein	+0.2
Set 2
1	1-0	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Gabrielle Nichols		+0.3
2	1-1	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.2
3	1-2	PENNST	PENNST	Bad set	Bryn Janke		+0.2
4	2-2	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+0.2
5	2-3	OHIO	PENNST×3	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.2
6	2-4	PENNST	PENNST×3	Ace	PENNST server	aced Lacy Marx	+0.2
7	2-5	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.2
8	3-5	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+0.1
9	3-6	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.1
10	3-7	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Gentry Brown	blk Kendall Northern, Danielle Whitmire	+0.1
11	4-7	PENNST	OHIO	Attack err	Haley Burgdorf		+0.1
12	4-8	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.1
13	5-8	PENNST	OHIO	Attack err	Kendall Northern		+0.1
14	6-8	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Haley Burgdorf		+0.2
15	6-9	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.1
16	7-9	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.2
17	7-10	OHIO	PENNST	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.1
18	7-11	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Caroline Jurevicius	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.2
19	8-11	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Lacy Marx	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1
20	9-11	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Gentry Brown	+0.2
21	9-12	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Caroline Jurevicius	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.2
22	10-12	PENNST	OHIO	Attack err	Emmi Sellman		+0.2
23	10-13	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.2
24	11-13	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Bryn Janke	+0.2
25	11-14	OHIO	PENNST×4	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.2
26	11-15	PENNST	PENNST×4	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Rose Mahin	+0.2
27	11-16	PENNST	PENNST×4	Ace	PENNST server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.1
28	11-17	PENNST	PENNST×4	Ace	PENNST server	aced Lacy Marx	+0.1
29	12-17	PENNST	OHIO	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.0
30	12-18	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Danielle Whitmire	set Emmi Sellman	+0.1
31	13-18	PENNST	OHIO×3	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
32	14-18	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1
33	15-18	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Kendall Northern		+0.2
34	15-19	OHIO	PENNST	Attack err	Bailey Blair	blk Kendall Northern, Emmi Sellman	+0.2
35	16-19	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1
36	16-20	OHIO	PENNST	Attack err	Olivia Gardner	blk Gabrielle Nichols	+0.2
37	17-20	PENNST	OHIO	Serve err	PENNST server		+0.1
38	18-20	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Haley Burgdorf	+0.3
39	18-21	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.3
40	18-22	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Caroline Jurevicius	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.2
41	19-22	PENNST	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Bryn Janke	+0.1
42	20-22	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Bryn Janke	+0.3
43	21-22	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Caroline Jurevicius	blk Gentry Brown, Olivia Gardner	+0.5
44	21-23	OHIO	PENNST	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.5
45	22-23	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+0.4
46	23-23	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+1.1
47	23-24	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Caroline Jurevicius	set Danielle Whitmire	+1.0
48	23-25	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Finley Krystkowiak		+1.0
Set 3
1	1-0	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+0.1
2	1-1	OHIO	PENNST	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.1
3	1-2	PENNST	PENNST	Ace	PENNST server	aced Gentry Brown	+0.1
4	2-2	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Bryn Janke	+0.1
5	2-3	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Ryla Jones	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.1
6	3-3	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Bryn Janke	+0.1
7	3-4	OHIO	PENNST×4	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.1
8	3-5	PENNST	PENNST×4	Attack err	Emily Waddell	blk Kendall Northern, Haley Burgdorf	+0.1
9	3-6	PENNST	PENNST×4	Ace	PENNST server	aced Lacy Marx	+0.1
10	3-7	PENNST	PENNST×4	Ace	PENNST server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.1
11	4-7	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
12	4-8	OHIO	PENNST×8	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
13	4-9	PENNST	PENNST×8	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Kendall Northern, Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
14	4-10	PENNST	PENNST×8	Attack err	Emily Waddell	blk Kendall Northern, Alexis Ewing	+0.0
15	4-11	PENNST	PENNST×8	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.0
16	4-12	PENNST	PENNST×8	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
17	4-13	PENNST	PENNST×8	Attack err	Rose Mahin		+0.0
18	4-14	PENNST	PENNST×8	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
19	4-15	PENNST	PENNST×8	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.0
20	5-15	PENNST	OHIO	Attack err	Kendall Northern		+0.0
21	5-16	OHIO	PENNST	Kill	Alexis Ewing	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
22	6-16	PENNST	OHIO	Kill	Bryn Janke	set Gentry Brown	+0.0
23	6-17	OHIO	PENNST×6	Kill	Alexis Ewing	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
24	6-18	PENNST	PENNST×6	Kill	Caroline Jurevicius	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
25	6-19	PENNST	PENNST×6	Ace	PENNST server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.0
26	6-20	PENNST	PENNST×6	Ace	PENNST server	aced Gentry Brown	+0.0
27	6-21	PENNST	PENNST×6	Ace	PENNST server	aced Gentry Brown	+0.0
28	6-22	PENNST	PENNST×6	Ace	PENNST server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.0
29	7-22	PENNST	OHIO×3	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.0
30	8-22	OHIO	OHIO×3	Ace	OHIO server	aced Haley Burgdorf	+0.0
31	9-22	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Alexis Ewing		+0.0
32	9-23	OHIO	PENNST×3	Kill	Alexis Ewing	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
33	9-24	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Caroline Jurevicius	set Danielle Whitmire	+0.0
34	9-25	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Haley Burgdorf		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Ohio first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.