FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayBIG-SOUTH

0:3

HomeMAC

Ohio def. UNC Asheville 3–0

(25-19, 25-20, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3*	Sets
UNC A	19	20	20	0
OHIO	25	25	25	3

* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

OHIO above 50 · UNC A below

Biggest swing: 2.4% to UNC Asheville — set 1, UNC A 11-12 OHIO. Attack error by Emily Waddell. OHIO win probability 79% → 76%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNC A 25.3%74.7% OHIO

UNC Asheville wins

3-0

4.5%

3-1

8.7%

3-2

12.1%

Ohio wins

3-0

26.8%

3-1

28.5%

3-2

19.4%

UNC A break %: 39.0% vs this opp
OHIO break %: 44.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emily WaddellAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Emily Waddell
Set 1 · UNC A 11-12 OHIO · UNC A 21% → 24%
02
Emily WaddellKill+2.3%
Kill by Emily Waddell (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 1 · UNC A 12-15 OHIO · OHIO 78% → 81%
03
Torre KildowAttack error+2.1%
Attack error by Torre Kildow
Set 1 · UNC A 3-3 OHIO · UNC A 23% → 26%
04
UNC A serverAce+2.1%
UNC Asheville ace on Kendall Hickey
Set 1 · UNC A 7-8 OHIO · UNC A 22% → 24%
05
Gentry BrownKill+2.0%
Kill by Gentry Brown
Set 1 · UNC A 7-10 OHIO · OHIO 78% → 80%
06
Rose MahinKill+2.0%
Kill by Rose Mahin (set by Rowan Kelly)
Set 1 · UNC A 3-5 OHIO · OHIO 76% → 78%
07
Addie BrookbankAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Addie Brookbank
Set 1 · UNC A 1-3 OHIO · OHIO 76% → 78%
08
Rose MahinKill+1.9%
Kill by Rose Mahin (set by Darbi Ricketts)
Set 1 · UNC A 12-16 OHIO · OHIO 81% → 82%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNC Ashevilleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
23Sarah WadsworthOH	3	11	4	29	.241	0	0	5	5	1	0	0	11
5Addie BrookbankOH	3	6	6	30	.000	1	0	4	3	2	0	0	6
13Cadence NicholsMB	3	4	2	8	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
14Lydia PateMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	4
32Albertine Van der gootOH	3	3	1	12	.167	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
22Olivia CallipoS	3	0	0	1	.000	22	0	1	3	0	2	2	2
17Catherine HubiakL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	7	3	0	0	2
7Lily BannisterOH	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
15Olivia PhilpotL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
1Cameron OwensOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Elise JensenS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
4Izzy PerkinsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Leah OkogbeninMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25Maddie ConnellyOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Megan OppegardOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
19Riley BarrS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		27	14	89	.146	26	5	15	26	6	2	2	59

Ohiohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Torre KildowOH	3	10	4	18	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
7Rose MahinOH	3	9	3	21	.286	0	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	9
11Emily WaddellMB	3	6	2	10	.400	1	1	0	2	0	1	2	2	9
17Bailey BlairOPP	3	7	5	20	.100	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	7
23Olivia GardnerMB	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
18Lillie MeinhartS	3	0	0	0	–	16	3	1	3	0	0	0	0	3
10Rowan KellyS	3	2	0	2	1.000	15	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
3Gentry BrownOH	3	1	0	3	.333	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	0	2
16Darbi RickettsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
21Brooklyn ColeMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Bryn JankeS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Caroline CurranL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Cienna LapsleyMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Kendall HickeyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
22Lacy MarxL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
15Sierra EvansMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	16	86	.267	38	6	8	44	5	1	4	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 UNC A · OHIO 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 2 UNC AOHIO 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 UNC AOHIO 5

Set 3*

20-25

Longest run 3 UNC AOHIO 5

Bars above the line = Ohio leads, below = UNC Asheville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UNC Asheville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	29%2/7
2	71%5/7	25%2/8
3	83%5/6	44%4/9
4	44%4/9	0%0/5
5	36%4/11	20%1/5
6	67%4/6	33%2/6
All	57%28/49	28%11/40

Ohio

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	44%4/9
2	71%5/7	29%2/7
3	71%5/7	17%1/6
4	83%5/6	38%3/8
5	100%4/4	67%8/12
6	50%4/8	43%3/7
All	73%29/40	43%21/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	UNC A-OHIO	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.4
2	1-1	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+1.4
3	1-2	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.4
4	1-3	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+1.9
5	2-3	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate		+1.3
6	3-3	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Torre Kildow		+2.1
7	3-4	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.5
8	3-5	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+2.0
9	4-5	OHIO	UNC A	Bad set	Bailey Blair		+1.4
10	4-6	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.4
11	5-6	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+1.4
12	5-7	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.5
13	5-8	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Cadence Nichols		+1.9
14	6-8	OHIO	UNC A	Attack err	Olivia Gardner	set Rowan Kelly	+1.3
15	7-8	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Kendall Hickey	+2.1
16	7-9	UNC A	OHIO	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth	set Catherine Hubiak	+1.5
17	7-10	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Gentry Brown		+2.0
18	8-10	OHIO	UNC A	Attack err	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.3
19	8-11	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.4
20	9-11	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+1.4
21	9-12	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.5
22	10-12	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+1.4
23	11-12	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+2.4
24	11-13	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.8
25	12-13	OHIO	UNC A	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.8
26	12-14	UNC A	OHIO×4	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+1.8
27	12-15	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+2.3
28	12-16	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Darbi Ricketts	+1.9
29	12-17	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Emily Waddell	+1.4
30	13-17	OHIO	UNC A	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.7
31	13-18	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+1.0
32	13-19	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Cadence Nichols		+0.9
33	14-19	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+0.4
34	15-19	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Gentry Brown	+0.9
35	15-20	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.9
36	16-20	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Lily Bannister		+0.6
37	16-21	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Gentry Brown	+0.9
38	16-22	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Darbi Ricketts	+0.7
39	17-22	OHIO	UNC A	Attack err	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.2
40	17-23	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.4
41	18-23	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+0.1
42	18-24	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.3
43	19-24	OHIO	UNC A	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.1
44	19-25	UNC A	OHIO	Bad set	Elise Jensen		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Catherine Hubiak	+1.5
2	1-1	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+1.1
3	1-2	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.1
4	2-2	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+1.2
5	2-3	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+1.1
6	3-3	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+1.2
7	3-4	UNC A	OHIO	Attack err	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+1.2
8	4-4	OHIO	UNC A	Serve err	OHIO server		+1.2
9	4-5	UNC A	OHIO×5	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+1.2
10	4-6	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+1.6
11	4-7	OHIO	OHIO×5	Ace	OHIO server	aced Catherine Hubiak	+1.4
12	4-8	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+1.2
13	4-9	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth	blk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell	+1.0
14	5-9	OHIO	UNC A	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.6
15	5-10	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.7
16	5-11	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Addie Brookbank	+0.8
17	6-11	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Olivia Callipo	+0.5
18	6-12	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.6
19	6-13	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Addie Brookbank	+0.6
20	7-13	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Albertine Van der goot	set Olivia Callipo	+0.3
21	7-14	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.4
22	8-14	OHIO	UNC A×3	Attack err	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.3
23	9-14	UNC A	UNC A×3	Ace	UNC A server	aced TEAM	+0.6
24	10-14	UNC A	UNC A×3	Ace	UNC A server	aced Lacy Marx	+0.9
25	10-15	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.8
26	11-15	OHIO	UNC A	Attack err	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.6
27	11-16	UNC A	OHIO×3	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.8
28	11-17	OHIO	OHIO×3	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.8
29	11-18	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth		+0.5
30	12-18	OHIO	UNC A	Attack err	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
31	13-18	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.5
32	13-19	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+0.5
33	13-20	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Rowan Kelly	+0.4
34	14-20	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.2
35	14-21	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Lacy Marx	+0.2
36	15-21	OHIO	UNC A×3	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.1
37	16-21	UNC A	UNC A×3	Attack err	Emily Waddell		+0.3
38	17-21	UNC A	UNC A×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.6
39	17-22	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.6
40	17-23	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+0.4
41	18-23	OHIO	UNC A×3	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.1
42	19-23	UNC A	UNC A×3	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+0.3
43	20-23	UNC A	UNC A×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.7
44	20-24	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.9
45	20-25	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+0.3
Set 3
1	0-1	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.6
2	1-1	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.6
3	1-2	UNC A	OHIO×5	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.6
4	1-3	OHIO	OHIO×5	Attack err	Lydia Pate		+0.8
5	1-4	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Emily Waddell	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.7
6	1-5	OHIO	OHIO×5	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.7
7	1-6	OHIO	OHIO×5	Ace	OHIO server	aced Sarah Wadsworth	+0.5
8	2-6	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+0.4
9	3-6	UNC A	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+0.6
10	3-7	UNC A	OHIO×4	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.5
11	3-8	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.6
12	3-9	OHIO	OHIO×4	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth		+0.5
13	3-10	OHIO	OHIO×4	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Darbi Ricketts	+0.3
14	4-10	OHIO	UNC A×3	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+0.2
15	5-10	UNC A	UNC A×3	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.4
16	6-10	UNC A	UNC A×3	Ace	UNC A server	aced Rose Mahin	+0.5
17	6-11	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Torre Kildow	set Rowan Kelly	+0.4
18	7-11	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+0.4
19	7-12	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.4
20	8-12	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.4
21	9-12	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Olivia Callipo	+0.7
22	9-13	UNC A	OHIO	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
23	9-14	OHIO	OHIO	Ace	OHIO server	aced Catherine Hubiak	+0.6
24	10-14	OHIO	UNC A	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.4
25	10-15	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Bailey Blair	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.4
26	11-15	OHIO	UNC A	Attack err	Torre Kildow	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.3
27	11-16	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.4
28	11-17	OHIO	OHIO	Attack err	Albertine Van der goot	blk Emily Waddell, Torre Kildow	+0.4
29	12-17	OHIO	UNC A×3	Kill	Albertine Van der goot	set Addie Brookbank	+0.2
30	13-17	UNC A	UNC A×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.5
31	14-17	UNC A	UNC A×3	Attack err	Bailey Blair		+0.7
32	14-18	UNC A	OHIO×3	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.6
33	14-19	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Addie Brookbank	blk Emily Waddell	+0.6
34	14-20	OHIO	OHIO×3	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+0.4
35	15-20	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Albertine Van der goot	set Olivia Callipo	+0.2
36	15-21	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.2
37	15-22	OHIO	OHIO	Kill	Rowan Kelly	set Darbi Ricketts	+0.2
38	16-22	OHIO	UNC A	Serve err	OHIO server		+0.0
39	16-23	UNC A	OHIO	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.1
40	17-23	OHIO	UNC A×3	Attack err	Rose Mahin	blk Olivia Callipo	+0.0
41	18-23	UNC A	UNC A×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
42	19-23	UNC A	UNC A×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.2
43	19-24	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Rose Mahin	set Rowan Kelly	+0.2
44	20-24	OHIO	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+0.1
45	20-25	UNC A	OHIO	Kill	Olivia Gardner	set Lillie Meinhart	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, UNC Asheville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.