Final · 4 setsSun, Nov 8, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Miami (OH) def. Ohio 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Miami (OH) 62.4% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 8, 2:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Miami (OH) won at Ohio 3-1 (25-23, 25-21, 24-26, 28-26) on Sun, Nov 8, 2026. Miami (OH)'s Lauren Coyne led with 19 kills.

Data through · final Nov 8

Set1234Sets
MIA OH252524283
OHIO232126261

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Miami (OH) needed all of Lauren Coyne's 22 points to get by Ohio.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Miami (OH)'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Miami (OH) went in as RallyIQ's 62% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Miami (OH) 21–23 Ohio

    4 of the last 4 rallies went to Miami (OH), enough to take the set 25–23 and lead 1–0. The match swung to Miami (OH).

    Miami (OH) 48% → 78%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Miami (OH) 18–15 Ohio

    Ohio scored 5 straight to turn a 15–18 deficit into a 20–18 lead.

    Miami (OH) 93% → 68%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Miami (OH) 25–25 Ohio

    Miami (OH) closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 28–26 and win the match 3–1.

    Miami (OH) 77% → >99%

Ohio above 50Miami (OH) belowMax swing 12.0%

Miami (OH)Ohio

Sideout %
Miami (OH) 60.8·Ohio 57.4
Break %
Miami (OH) 42.6·Ohio 39.2
Hitting
Miami (OH) .238·Ohio .207
Longest run
Miami (OH) 5·Ohio 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Ohio above 50 · Miami (OH) below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+12.0% MIA OHrally 198 · set 4

Biggest swing: 12.0% to Miami (OH) — set 4, MIA OH 26-25 OHIO. Attack error by Bailey Blair. OHIO win probability 23% → 11%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MIA OH 62.6%37.4% OHIO

Miami (OH) wins

3-0
18.6%
3-1
24.0%
3-2
20.0%

Ohio wins

3-0
7.9%
3-1
13.5%
3-2
16.0%
MIA OH break %
40.5% vs this opp
OHIO break %
38.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Bailey BlairAttack error+12.0%

    Attack error by Bailey Blair

    Set 4 · MIA OH 26-25 OHIO · MIA OH 77% → 89%

  2. 02
    Gentry BrownAttack error+11.3%

    Attack error by Gentry Brown

    Set 4 · MIA OH 28-26 OHIO · MIA OH 89% → 100%

  3. 03

    Chelsea Williams stuffed by Torre Kildow & Olivia Gardner

    Set 4 · MIA OH 22-23 OHIO · OHIO 19% → 29%

  4. 04
    Lauren CoyneKill+9.8%

    Kill by Lauren Coyne (set by Rachel Morgan)

    Set 1 · MIA OH 24-23 OHIO · MIA OH 59% → 68%

  5. 05

    Gentry Brown stuffed by Lydia Michelin & Lauren Coyne

    Set 1 · MIA OH 25-23 OHIO · MIA OH 68% → 78%

  6. 06
    Molly CreechKill+8.3%

    Kill by Molly Creech (set by Madison Brown)

    Set 4 · MIA OH 22-21 OHIO · MIA OH 78% → 86%

  7. 07

    Kill by Olivia Gardner (set by Rowan Kelly)

    Set 4 · MIA OH 23-24 OHIO · OHIO 23% → 31%

  8. 08
    Grace KreutzKill+8.1%

    Kill by Grace Kreutz (set by Holland Van Deusen)

    Set 4 · MIA OH 24-24 OHIO · MIA OH 69% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419640.3250001022322
411739.10322011200013
410322.31800011200010
45212.250000200216
4325.20000000111.54.5
4205.4002911700003
46220.20000000010.56.5
4000–3131010001
4000–1202300000
4000–702400000
1000–101000000
Team totals5622143.2385449496366102
Ohiohome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415223.56500000052.517.5
411318.44401120153.515.5
4131038.079111110010.514.5
47223.217012500219
43517-.11801180010.54.5
2000–1301300000
4011-1.0003613300212
4001.0003111520001
4000–100800000
29524.1670000004211
Team totals5828145.207546105541201196

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Miami (OH) vs Ohio

Season series · Miami (OH) leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MIA OH · OHIO 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 MIA OHOHIO 4

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 MIA OHOHIO 3

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 5 MIA OHOHIO 4

Set 4

28-26

Longest run 3 MIA OHOHIO 5

Bars above the line = Ohio leads, below = Miami (OH) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Miami (OH)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%9/13
36%4/11
2
50%8/16
56%10/18
3
73%8/11
20%2/10
4
58%7/12
47%7/15
5
60%6/10
40%4/10
6
67%6/9
33%3/9
All
62%44/71
41%30/73

Ohio

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
33%4/12
2
57%8/14
38%5/13
3
53%8/15
43%6/14
4
88%7/8
42%5/12
5
50%6/12
22%2/9
6
75%6/8
45%5/11
All
59%43/73
38%27/71

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

198 rallies

#MIA OH-OHIOSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0OHIOMIA OH×3Bad setBailey Blair+1.6
22-0MIA OHMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.4
33-0MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errGentry Brown+2.2
43-1MIA OHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Lillie Meinhart+1.4
54-1OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+1.5
64-2MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Lillie Meinhart+1.4
74-3OHIOOHIOKillOlivia Gardner+2.4
85-3OHIOMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+1.6
96-3MIA OHMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+2.4
107-3MIA OHMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Rachel Morgan+2.1
117-4MIA OHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+1.2
128-4OHIOMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+1.4
139-4MIA OHMIA OHAttack errRose Mahin+1.8
149-5MIA OHOHIO×3Serve errMiami (OH)+1.0
159-6OHIOOHIO×3Attack errMolly Creech+1.9
169-7OHIOOHIO×3AceBailey Blair+2.3
1710-7OHIOMIA OHServe errBailey Blair+1.7
1810-8MIA OHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Lillie Meinhart+1.5
1911-8OHIOMIA OHAttack errGentry Brown+1.7
2011-9MIA OHOHIOServe errMiami (OH)+1.6
2111-10OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+2.9
2212-10OHIOMIA OHBad setLillie Meinhart+2.0
2312-11MIA OHOHIOServe errMiami (OH)+1.9
2413-11OHIOMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Holland Van Deusen+2.1
2514-11MIA OHMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+2.9
2615-11MIA OHMIA OH×3KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.4
2715-12MIA OHOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Lillie Meinhart+1.3
2815-13OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Darbi Ricketts+2.6
2915-14OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Darbi Ricketts+3.2
3016-14OHIOMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Holland Van Deusen+2.3
3116-15MIA OHOHIO×3Serve errMiami (OH)+2.2
3216-16OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+4.0
3316-17OHIOOHIO×3BlockedRaegan Lantzblk Emily Waddell+4.5
3417-17OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.8
3517-18MIA OHOHIOBlockedMolly Creechblk Bailey Blair, Emily Waddell+3.1
3618-18OHIOMIA OH×3Attack errRose Mahin+3.0
3719-18MIA OHMIA OH×3AceMiami (OH)+4.9
3820-18MIA OHMIA OH×3AceMiami (OH)+4.7
3920-19MIA OHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.5
4021-19OHIOMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+3.2
4121-20MIA OHOHIO×4KillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+2.6
4221-21OHIOOHIO×4BlockedChelsea Williamsblk Gentry Brown, Olivia Gardner+5.7
4321-22OHIOOHIO×4Bad setKamryn Utley+7.0
4421-23OHIOOHIO×4AceEmily Waddellaced Grace Kreutz+6.9
4522-23OHIOMIA OH×4KillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+3.0
4623-23MIA OHMIA OH×4AceMiami (OH)aced Darbi Ricketts+7.8
4724-23MIA OHMIA OH×4KillLauren Coyneset Rachel Morgan+9.8
4825-23MIA OHMIA OH×4BlockedGentry Brownblk Lydia Michelin, Lauren Coyne+9.2
Set 2
10-1MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Lillie Meinhart+1.5
21-1OHIOMIA OH×4Serve errLillie Meinhart+1.4
32-1MIA OHMIA OH×4KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.3
43-1MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errGentry Brown+2.2
54-1MIA OHMIA OH×4KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.0
64-2MIA OHOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Lillie Meinhart+1.2
74-3OHIOOHIO×3KillRose Mahin+2.1
84-4OHIOOHIO×3KillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+2.4
95-4OHIOMIA OHServe errGentry Brown+1.5
105-5MIA OHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Lillie Meinhart+1.6
116-5OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+1.6
126-6MIA OHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Lillie Meinhart+1.6
137-6OHIOMIA OH×4KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+1.6
148-6MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errRose Mahin+2.5
159-6MIA OHMIA OH×4Bad setRowan Kelly+2.3
1610-6MIA OHMIA OH×4Attack errEmily Waddell+2.0
1710-7MIA OHOHIOServe errMiami (OH)+1.1
1810-8OHIOOHIOBlockedMolly Creechblk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell+2.1
1911-8OHIOMIA OHServe errRose Mahin+1.5
2011-9MIA OHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.4
2112-9OHIOMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Kamryn Utley+1.6
2212-10MIA OHOHIOKillGentry Brownset Rowan Kelly+1.4
2313-10OHIOMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+1.6
2413-11MIA OHOHIOAttack errGrace Kreutz+1.4
2514-11OHIOMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Holland Van Deusen+1.6
2614-12MIA OHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Lillie Meinhart+1.5
2715-12OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+1.7
2815-13MIA OHOHIOServe errMiami (OH)+1.5
2916-13OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+1.8
3016-14MIA OHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.5
3116-15OHIOOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+3.0
3217-15OHIOMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Kamryn Utley+2.2
3317-16MIA OHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.0
3418-16OHIOMIA OH×3KillRaegan Lantzset Kamryn Utley+2.3
3519-16MIA OHMIA OH×3KillChelsea Williamsset Madison Brown+3.1
3620-16MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errRose Mahin+2.3
3720-17MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.0
3821-17OHIOMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Kamryn Utley+1.4
3922-17MIA OHMIA OHBlockedOlivia Gardnerblk Lydia Michelin+1.3
4022-18MIA OHOHIOAttack errLauren Coyne+0.4
4122-19OHIOOHIOAceGentry Brownaced Grace Kreutz+1.2
4223-19OHIOMIA OHKillLydia Michelinset Holland Van Deusen+1.3
4323-20MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+0.6
4424-20OHIOMIA OHServe errDarbi Ricketts+1.1
4524-21MIA OHOHIOBlockedMolly Creechblk Emily Waddell, Bailey Blair+0.3
4625-21OHIOMIA OHBlockedRose Mahinblk Raegan Lantz, Lauren Coyne+0.7
Set 3
11-0OHIOMIA OHAttack errTorre Kildow+0.9
21-1MIA OHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Darbi Ricketts+0.9
31-2OHIOOHIOAceRowan Kellyaced Molly Creech+1.4
42-2OHIOMIA OHKillHolland Van Deusenset Molly Creech+0.9
52-3MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.0
63-3OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+0.9
73-4MIA OHOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+1.0
83-5OHIOOHIO×3Attack errMolly Creech+1.5
93-6OHIOOHIO×3AceDarbi Rickettsaced Molly Creech+1.5
104-6OHIOMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Holland Van Deusen+0.9
114-7MIA OHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.0
125-7OHIOMIA OHKillRaegan Lantzset Kamryn Utley+0.9
136-7MIA OHMIA OHAttack errEmily Waddell+1.5
146-8MIA OHOHIO×3KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.1
156-9OHIOOHIO×3KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+1.6
166-10OHIOOHIO×3BlockedGrace Kreutzblk Rowan Kelly, Emily Waddell+1.5
177-10OHIOMIA OH×3Attack errTorre Kildow+0.8
188-10MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errRowan Kelly+1.5
199-10MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errEmily Waddell+1.7
209-11MIA OHOHIOServe errMiami (OH)+1.2
2110-11OHIOMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+1.1
2211-11MIA OHMIA OHBlockedTorre Kildowblk Lauren Coyne+1.8
2311-12MIA OHOHIO×4KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.2
2411-13OHIOOHIO×4Attack errLydia Michelin+2.0
2511-14OHIOOHIO×4Attack errMolly Creech+1.9
2611-15OHIOOHIO×4KillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.7
2712-15OHIOMIA OHServe errRowan Kelly+0.8
2812-16MIA OHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.1
2913-16OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+0.8
3014-16MIA OHMIA OHAttack errOlivia Gardner+1.7
3114-17MIA OHOHIOServe errMiami (OH)+1.3
3215-17OHIOMIA OHKillHolland Van Deusenset Molly Creech+1.1
3315-18MIA OHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+1.4
3416-18OHIOMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+1.1
3516-19MIA OHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+1.5
3616-20OHIOOHIOAceRose Mahinaced Rachel Morgan+1.8
3717-20OHIOMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Kamryn Utley+0.7
3817-21MIA OHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+1.2
3918-21OHIOMIA OHServe errEmily Waddell+0.7
4018-22MIA OHOHIOBlockedLauren Coyneblk Torre Kildow, Olivia Gardner+1.1
4118-23OHIOOHIOAttack errLauren Coyne+0.9
4219-23OHIOMIA OHServe errRowan Kelly+0.2
4319-24MIA OHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+0.5
4420-24OHIOMIA OH×5KillLydia Michelinset Holland Van Deusen+0.1
4521-24MIA OHMIA OH×5KillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+0.4
4622-24MIA OHMIA OH×5BlockedRose Mahinblk Lauren Coyne+0.9
4723-24MIA OHMIA OH×5Attack errRose Mahin+2.3
4824-24MIA OHMIA OH×5AceMiami (OH)aced Darbi Ricketts+5.6
4924-25MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Gentry Brown+3.6
5024-26OHIOOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+5.8
Set 4
11-0MIA OHMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Holland Van Deusen+3.1
21-1MIA OHOHIO×3BlockedLauren Coyneblk Torre Kildow, Olivia Gardner+2.0
31-2OHIOOHIO×3KillOlivia Gardner+3.3
41-3OHIOOHIO×3Attack errLydia Michelin+3.3
52-3OHIOMIA OHBad setRowan Kelly+2.0
62-4MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.2
73-4OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.1
84-4MIA OHMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Rachel Morgan+3.4
94-5MIA OHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+2.3
105-5OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+2.2
116-5MIA OHMIA OHBlockedRose Mahinblk Chelsea Williams, Raegan Lantz+3.4
126-6MIA OHOHIOKillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.2
137-6OHIOMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Kamryn Utley+2.3
148-6MIA OHMIA OHAttack errTorre Kildow+3.4
158-7OHIO
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.1
168-8OHIOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Caroline Curran+3.6
179-8OHIOMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Madison Brown+2.4
1810-8MIA OHMIA OHKillChelsea Williamsset Madison Brown+3.6
1910-9MIA OHOHIOServe errMiami (OH)+2.2
2010-10OHIOOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rose Mahin+3.9
2111-10OHIOMIA OH×3Serve errRowan Kelly+2.6
2212-10MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errTorre Kildow+3.8
2313-10MIA OHMIA OH×3Attack errBailey Blair+3.5
2413-11MIA OHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+2.0
2513-12OHIOOHIOBlockedLauren Coyneblk Rose Mahin, Olivia Gardner+3.7
2614-12OHIOMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Holland Van Deusen+2.6
2715-12MIA OHMIA OHAttack errRose Mahin+3.7
2815-13MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+2.1
2915-14OHIOOHIOAttack errLauren Coyne+4.0
3016-14OHIOMIA OHKillLydia Michelinset Holland Van Deusen+2.9
3116-15MIA OHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+2.7
3217-15OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+3.0
3318-15MIA OHMIA OHAttack errRose Mahin+4.1
3418-16MIA OHOHIO×5KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+2.1
3518-17OHIOOHIO×5KillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+4.4
3618-18OHIOOHIO×5BlockedRaegan Lantzblk Emily Waddell, Torre Kildow+5.5
3718-19OHIOOHIO×5KillEmily Waddellset Rowan Kelly+6.3
3818-20OHIOOHIO×5Attack errMolly Creech+6.3
3919-20OHIOMIA OHKillMolly Creechset Madison Brown+3.4
4019-21MIA OHOHIOKillTorre Kildowset Rowan Kelly+4.5
4120-21OHIOMIA OH×3KillChelsea Williamsset Madison Brown+3.5
4221-21MIA OHMIA OH×3KillGrace Kreutzset Piper Willinger+7.3
4322-21MIA OHMIA OH×3KillMolly Creechset Madison Brown+8.3
4422-22MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+5.1
4522-23OHIOOHIOBlockedChelsea Williamsblk Torre Kildow, Olivia Gardner+10.1
4623-23OHIOMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Madison Brown+6.1
4723-24MIA OHOHIOKillOlivia Gardnerset Rowan Kelly+8.1
4824-24OHIOMIA OHKillGrace Kreutzset Holland Van Deusen+8.1
4924-25MIA OHOHIOKillBailey Blairset Rowan Kelly+8.1
5025-25OHIOMIA OHKillLauren Coyneset Holland Van Deusen+8.1
5126-25MIA OHMIA OHAttack errBailey Blair+12.0
5226-26MIA OHOHIOKillRose Mahinset Rowan Kelly+7.6
5327-26OHIOMIA OHServe errBailey Blair+7.6
5428-26MIA OHMIA OHAttack errGentry Brown+11.3

Score shown after each rally, Miami (OH) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).