FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeHORIZON

Ball St. def. Wright St. 3–0

(32-30, 25-16, 25-12)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BALLST	32	25	25	3
WRIGHT	30	16	12	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

WRIGHT above 50 · BALLST below

Biggest swing: 9.6% to Wright St. — set 1, BALLST 24-25 WRIGHT. Audrey Geer stuffed by Abigail Knight & Olivia Schmidt. WRIGHT win probability 32% → 42%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BALLST 68.1%31.9% WRIGHT

Ball St. wins

3-0

22.0%

3-1

26.1%

3-2

20.0%

Wright St. wins

3-0

6.2%

3-1

11.3%

3-2

14.4%

BALLST break %: 43.3% vs this opp
WRIGHT break %: 39.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Audrey GeerAttack error+9.6%
Audrey Geer stuffed by Abigail Knight & Olivia Schmidt
Set 1 · BALLST 24-25 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 32% → 42%
02
Ava SmithAttack error+9.6%
Ava Smith stuffed by Lauren Yacobucci
Set 1 · BALLST 28-29 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 32% → 42%
03
Madison BuckleyKill+9.0%
Kill by Madison Buckley (set by Reese Axness)
Set 1 · BALLST 28-27 WRIGHT · BALLST 65% → 74%
04
Ava SmithKill+9.0%
Kill by Ava Smith (set by Gwen Crull)
Set 1 · BALLST 30-29 WRIGHT · BALLST 65% → 74%
05
Tiffany SnookAttack error+8.8%
Attack error by Tiffany Snook
Set 1 · BALLST 24-24 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 24% → 32%
06
Leah PikeKill+8.3%
Kill by Leah Pike (set by Lindsey Green)
Set 1 · BALLST 32-30 WRIGHT · BALLST 74% → 82%
07
Ella SeegerAttack error+6.9%
Attack error by Ella Seeger
Set 1 · BALLST 25-25 WRIGHT · BALLST 58% → 65%
08
Abigail KnightKill+6.9%
Kill by Abigail Knight (set by Lauren Yacobucci)
Set 1 · BALLST 25-26 WRIGHT · WRIGHT 35% → 42%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ball St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Audrey GeerOH	3	14	2	30	.400	0	0	0	12	1	0	0	0	14
14Ava SmithOH	3	13	3	27	.370	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	13
21Madison BuckleyOPP	3	10	3	20	.350	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
13Gwen CrullMB	3	4	1	11	.273	2	1	2	0	0	0	4	2	7
10Leah PikeMB	3	5	0	8	.625	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	6
2Reese AxnessS	3	0	0	0	–	28	2	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
11Tiffany SnookMB	3	5	3	14	.143	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5
8Lindsey GreenS	3	0	0	0	–	19	1	1	7	0	0	0	0	1
12Sophie LedbetterDS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	13	0	0	0	0	1
3Elizabeth TabelingDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Mallory PikeOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
6Merritt SliwaOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		53	12	112	.366	53	5	3	54	1	1	8	5	82

Wright St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Katie SowkoOH	3	8	5	32	.094	1	0	0	9	1	1	0	1	9
2Reilly ZegunisMB	3	7	3	29	.138	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	7
7Lauren YacobucciS	3	5	1	7	.571	30	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	6
11Olivia SchmidtMB	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Abigail KnightOH	3	4	3	11	.091	0	0	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
1Alisandra HayesOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	0
3Taygan CorstangeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	0	16	3	0	0	0	1
9Greta McKeeDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
10Mya AyroOH	2	7	3	16	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
16Ella SeegerOH	2	5	2	14	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
15Haidyn SokoloskiOPP	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
35Ella GaonaDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	20	124	.169	38	1	3	42	5	2	2	3	58

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 BALLST · WRIGHT 4

Set 1

32-30

Longest run 2 BALLSTWRIGHT 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 5 BALLSTWRIGHT 4

Set 3

25-12

Longest run 7 BALLSTWRIGHT 4

Bars above the line = Wright St. leads, below = Ball St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ball St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	61%11/18
2	64%7/11	59%10/17
3	70%7/10	53%8/15
4	86%6/7	45%5/11
5	67%6/9	25%2/8
6	86%6/7	50%6/12
All	68%40/59	52%42/81

Wright St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	40%4/10
2	41%7/17	38%5/13
3	44%7/16	30%3/10
4	60%6/10	36%4/11
5	67%6/9	0%0/6
6	33%5/15	33%3/9
All	48%39/81	32%19/59

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	BALLST-WRIGHT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+2.2
2	1-1	BALLST	WRIGHT×3	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+1.6
3	1-2	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Ace	WRIGHT server	aced Audrey Geer	+2.4
4	1-3	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+2.5
5	2-3	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+1.7
6	3-3	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Reilly Zegunis		+2.4
7	3-4	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.8
8	4-4	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.7
9	4-5	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.8
10	5-5	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+1.8
11	6-5	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Leah Pike	set Lindsey Green	+2.5
12	6-6	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Lauren Yacobucci	set Katie Sowko	+1.8
13	7-6	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.8
14	7-7	BALLST	WRIGHT	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+1.9
15	7-8	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Ella Seeger	set Lauren Yacobucci	+2.8
16	8-8	WRIGHT	BALLST	Attack err	Ella Seeger		+1.9
17	9-8	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Katie Sowko	+2.7
18	9-9	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Olivia Schmidt	set Lauren Yacobucci	+2.0
19	9-10	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+3.0
20	10-10	WRIGHT	BALLST	Attack err	Olivia Schmidt		+2.0
21	10-11	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Taygan Corstange	+2.2
22	10-12	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Taygan Corstange	+3.2
23	11-12	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+2.1
24	12-12	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+3.1
25	12-13	BALLST	WRIGHT	Attack err	Madison Buckley		+2.4
26	12-14	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+3.5
27	13-14	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+2.2
28	14-14	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Katie Sowko		+3.4
29	14-15	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Lauren Yacobucci	set Greta McKee	+2.6
30	15-15	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+2.5
31	15-16	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Ella Seeger	set Lauren Yacobucci	+2.8
32	16-16	WRIGHT	BALLST	Serve err	WRIGHT server		+2.6
33	16-17	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Ella Seeger	set Lauren Yacobucci	+2.9
34	17-17	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+2.8
35	17-18	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Olivia Schmidt	set Lauren Yacobucci	+3.1
36	18-18	WRIGHT	BALLST	Serve err	WRIGHT server		+3.0
37	19-18	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+4.4
38	19-19	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Lauren Yacobucci	+3.1
39	20-19	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+3.4
40	20-20	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+3.4
41	21-20	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Sophie Ledbetter	+3.7
42	21-21	BALLST	WRIGHT	Serve err	BALLST server		+3.8
43	22-21	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Leah Pike	set Reese Axness	+4.2
44	22-22	BALLST	WRIGHT	Serve err	BALLST server		+4.2
45	23-22	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+5.0
46	24-22	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Sophie Ledbetter	+6.4
47	24-23	BALLST	WRIGHT×3	Kill	Ella Seeger	set Lauren Yacobucci	+2.5
48	24-24	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+8.8
49	24-25	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×3	Attack err	Audrey Geer	blk Abigail Knight, Olivia Schmidt	+9.6
50	25-25	WRIGHT	BALLST	Attack err	Ella Seeger		+6.9
51	25-26	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Lauren Yacobucci	+6.9
52	26-26	WRIGHT	BALLST	Attack err	Katie Sowko		+6.9
53	26-27	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+6.9
54	27-27	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+6.9
55	28-27	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+9.0
56	28-28	BALLST	WRIGHT	Attack err	Ava Smith		+6.3
57	28-29	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Attack err	Ava Smith	blk Lauren Yacobucci	+9.6
58	29-29	WRIGHT	BALLST	Serve err	WRIGHT server		+6.9
59	30-29	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Gwen Crull	+9.0
60	30-30	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+6.3
61	31-30	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Sophie Ledbetter	+6.3
62	32-30	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Leah Pike	set Lindsey Green	+8.3
Set 2
1	1-0	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.3
2	2-0	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+1.8
3	2-1	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Ella Seeger	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.2
4	3-1	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+1.3
5	4-1	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Abigail Knight		+1.7
6	4-2	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Olivia Schmidt	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.1
7	5-2	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.2
8	6-2	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Taygan Corstange	+1.5
9	6-3	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.0
10	7-3	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
11	7-4	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+1.0
12	8-4	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
13	9-4	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+1.3
14	9-5	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.8
15	10-5	WRIGHT	BALLST×5	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.9
16	11-5	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+1.1
17	12-5	BALLST	BALLST×5	Ace	BALLST server	aced Taygan Corstange	+0.8
18	13-5	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+0.6
19	14-5	BALLST	BALLST×5	Attack err	Mya Ayro	blk Gwen Crull, Madison Buckley	+0.4
20	14-6	BALLST	WRIGHT×4	Kill	Lauren Yacobucci	set Taygan Corstange	+0.2
21	14-7	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.4
22	14-8	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Kill	Olivia Schmidt	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.6
23	14-9	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Attack err	Madison Buckley		+0.8
24	15-9	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+0.7
25	15-10	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.6
26	15-11	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Taygan Corstange	+1.1
27	16-11	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+1.0
28	16-12	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Olivia Schmidt	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.8
29	17-12	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+1.0
30	18-12	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.0
31	18-13	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Abigail Knight	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.5
32	18-14	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Lauren Yacobucci	set Taygan Corstange	+1.0
33	19-14	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Leah Pike	set Lindsey Green	+1.0
34	20-14	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Leah Pike	set Lindsey Green	+0.9
35	20-15	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.4
36	21-15	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.5
37	22-15	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.4
38	22-16	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.1
39	23-16	WRIGHT	BALLST×3	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
40	24-16	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Mya Ayro		+0.1
41	25-16	BALLST	BALLST×3	Ace	BALLST server	aced Taygan Corstange	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.0
2	2-0	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+1.0
3	3-0	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Olivia Schmidt	blk Gwen Crull, Madison Buckley	+0.9
4	3-1	BALLST	WRIGHT	Attack err	Madison Buckley		+0.6
5	3-2	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Attack err	Gwen Crull	blk Katie Sowko	+1.0
6	4-2	WRIGHT	BALLST×7	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+0.7
7	5-2	BALLST	BALLST×7	Attack err	Abigail Knight		+0.9
8	6-2	BALLST	BALLST×7	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.8
9	7-2	BALLST	BALLST×7	Attack err	Abigail Knight		+0.7
10	8-2	BALLST	BALLST×7	Attack err	Katie Sowko	blk Madison Buckley, Gwen Crull	+0.6
11	9-2	BALLST	BALLST×7	Attack err	Katie Sowko		+0.5
12	10-2	BALLST	BALLST×7	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.3
13	10-3	BALLST	WRIGHT	Attack err	Ava Smith		+0.2
14	10-4	WRIGHT	WRIGHT	Kill	Reilly Zegunis		+0.4
15	11-4	WRIGHT	BALLST×6	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+0.3
16	12-4	BALLST	BALLST×6	Attack err	Reilly Zegunis		+0.3
17	13-4	BALLST	BALLST×6	Attack err	Reilly Zegunis		+0.2
18	14-4	BALLST	BALLST×6	Ace	BALLST server	aced Alisandra Hayes	+0.1
19	15-4	BALLST	BALLST×6	Attack err	Katie Sowko		+0.1
20	16-4	BALLST	BALLST×6	Kill	Ava Smith	set Gwen Crull	+0.0
21	16-5	BALLST	WRIGHT×4	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.0
22	16-6	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Kill	Lauren Yacobucci	set Taygan Corstange	+0.0
23	16-7	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.1
24	16-8	WRIGHT	WRIGHT×4	Bad set	Reese Axness		+0.1
25	17-8	WRIGHT	BALLST	Attack err	Mya Ayro		+0.1
26	18-8	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Lauren Yacobucci	blk Leah Pike	+0.1
27	18-9	BALLST	WRIGHT	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+0.0
28	19-9	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
29	19-10	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.0
30	20-10	WRIGHT	BALLST×4	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.0
31	21-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.0
32	22-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Bad set	Lauren Yacobucci		+0.0
33	23-10	BALLST	BALLST×4	Attack err	Haidyn Sokoloski	blk Mallory Pike, Gwen Crull	+0.0
34	23-11	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Mya Ayro	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.0
35	24-11	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Merritt Sliwa	set Lindsey Green	+0.0
36	24-12	BALLST	WRIGHT	Kill	Katie Sowko	set Lauren Yacobucci	+0.0
37	25-12	WRIGHT	BALLST	Kill	Mallory Pike	set Lindsey Green	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Ball St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.