FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeASUN

Ball St. def. Stetson 3–0

(25-15, 25-20, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BALLST	25	25	25	3
STETSN	15	20	15	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

STETSN above 50 · BALLST below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to Stetson — set 2, BALLST 18-19 STETSN. Stetson ace on Sophie Ledbetter. STETSN win probability 2% → 3%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BALLST 97.7%2.3% STETSN

Ball St. wins

3-0

65.4%

3-1

25.9%

3-2

6.4%

Stetson wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.6%

3-2

1.5%

BALLST break %: 51.7% vs this opp
STETSN break %: 36.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
STETSN serverAce+0.7%
Stetson ace on Sophie Ledbetter
Set 2 · BALLST 18-19 STETSN · STETSN 2% → 3%
02
Madison BuckleyKill+0.6%
Kill by Madison Buckley (set by Reese Axness)
Set 2 · BALLST 20-19 STETSN · BALLST 98% → 99%
03
STETSN serverAce+0.5%
Stetson ace on Mallory Pike
Set 2 · BALLST 11-13 STETSN · STETSN 2% → 2%
04
STETSN serverService error+0.5%
Stetson service error
Set 2 · BALLST 19-19 STETSN · BALLST 97% → 98%
05
Camryn WiseKill+0.5%
Kill by Camryn Wise (set by Reese Axness)
Set 2 · BALLST 21-19 STETSN · BALLST 99% → 99%
06
Audrey GeerKill+0.5%
Kill by Audrey Geer
Set 2 · BALLST 18-17 STETSN · BALLST 98% → 99%
07
Karsu BayraktarKill+0.5%
Kill by Karsu Bayraktar (set by Larissa Hiemer)
Set 2 · BALLST 16-17 STETSN · STETSN 2% → 2%
08
Sofia TorcelloKill+0.5%
Kill by Sofia Torcello (set by Larissa Hiemer)
Set 1 · BALLST 9-9 STETSN · STETSN 2% → 3%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Ball St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Camryn WiseMB	3	9	1	17	.471	0	0	0	2	0	2	3	3.5	12.5
11Tiffany SnookMB	3	11	0	20	.550	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
8Lindsey GreenS	3	1	0	1	1.000	22	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	1
14Ava SmithOH	2	8	1	19	.368	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	8
13Gwen CrullMB	2	7	0	10	.700	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	8
1Audrey GeerOH	2	4	1	16	.188	0	0	2	11	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Madison BuckleyOPP	3	4	3	11	.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
12Sophie LedbetterDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	2	7	1	0	0	0	1
2Reese AxnessS	3	0	0	0	–	17	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	0
6Merritt SliwaOH	2	4	1	12	.250	0	0	2	7	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
3Elizabeth TabelingDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Kendall EdenL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Leah PikeMB	1	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
7Lucy McCollumS	1	1	0	4	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
16Alana BaileyMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
9Mallory PikeOH	1	0	2	6	-.333	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	10	123	.333	46	3	9	60	3	2	8	6	75

Stetsonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Karsu BayraktarOH	3	6	4	21	.095	0	0	1	4	0	1	0.5	6.5
21Sofia TorcelloMB	3	3	0	10	.300	0	1	1	2	0	2	1	5
17Lelia FitzMB	3	4	1	12	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
12Kayla BalfourMB	3	3	1	9	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
4Vitoria StedileL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	8	1	0	0	0
7Vanessa ShevchenkoS	1	0	1	7	-.143	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
8Larissa HiemerS	3	1	1	3	.000	10	0	1	10	0	0	0	1
6Maia Keely PouS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	1	2	6	0	0	0	1
2Jannelize PerezL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	6	0	0	11	1	0	0	0
11Andrea Diaz DominguezOH	2	7	4	22	.136	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	8
9Soraya TestonOH	2	3	0	16	.188	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
33Maria OzaetaOH	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
16Keely StarnesMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
23Zuzanna BuryOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		28	12	108	.148	27	3	6	54	3	4	2	50

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 BALLST · STETSN 4

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 5 BALLSTSTETSN 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 BALLSTSTETSN 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 5 BALLSTSTETSN 2

Bars above the line = Stetson leads, below = Ball St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Ball St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	67%10/15
2	78%7/9	42%5/12
3	86%6/7	45%5/11
4	75%6/8	57%8/14
5	67%6/9	14%1/7
6	56%5/9	64%9/14
All	71%37/52	52%38/73

Stetson

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	22%2/9
2	67%6/9	42%5/12
3	46%6/13	14%1/7
4	67%6/9	14%1/7
5	50%5/10	25%2/8
6	28%5/18	44%4/9
All	48%35/73	29%15/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

125 rallies

Rally log

#	BALLST-STETSN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STETSN	BALLST×3	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
2	2-0	BALLST	BALLST×3	Bad set	Vanessa Shevchenko		+0.2
3	3-0	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar		+0.2
4	3-1	BALLST	STETSN×3	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.2
5	3-2	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Vanessa Shevchenko	+0.3
6	3-3	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Jannelize Perez	+0.3
7	4-3	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
8	5-3	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+0.3
9	5-4	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Lelia Fitz	+0.2
10	6-4	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
11	7-4	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+0.2
12	7-5	BALLST	STETSN	Attack err	Madison Buckley	blk Sofia Torcello, Zuzanna Bury	+0.2
13	8-5	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+0.2
14	8-6	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.2
15	8-7	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Madison Buckley		+0.3
16	9-7	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+0.3
17	9-8	BALLST	STETSN	Attack err	Madison Buckley	blk Karsu Bayraktar, Sofia Torcello	+0.3
18	9-9	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Sofia Torcello	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.5
19	10-9	STETSN	BALLST×5	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.3
20	11-9	BALLST	BALLST×5	Attack err	Vanessa Shevchenko		+0.4
21	12-9	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.3
22	13-9	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
23	14-9	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
24	14-10	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Larissa Hiemer	set Vitoria Stedile	+0.1
25	15-10	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
26	16-10	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
27	16-11	BALLST	STETSN	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.1
28	17-11	STETSN	BALLST×3	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.1
29	18-11	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
30	19-11	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.0
31	19-12	BALLST	STETSN	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.0
32	20-12	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+0.0
33	20-13	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Jannelize Perez	+0.0
34	20-14	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Ava Smith		+0.0
35	21-14	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+0.0
36	21-15	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Sofia Torcello	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.0
37	22-15	STETSN	BALLST×4	Kill	Merritt Sliwa	set Reese Axness	+0.0
38	23-15	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+0.0
39	24-15	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Merritt Sliwa	set Kendall Eden	+0.0
40	25-15	BALLST	BALLST×4	Bad set	Vanessa Shevchenko		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
2	1-1	BALLST	STETSN×4	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.2
3	1-2	STETSN	STETSN×4	Attack err	Camryn Wise		+0.2
4	1-3	STETSN	STETSN×4	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.3
5	1-4	STETSN	STETSN×4	Ace	STETSN server	aced Team	+0.3
6	2-4	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
7	2-5	BALLST	STETSN	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.3
8	3-5	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
9	4-5	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Team	+0.3
10	4-6	BALLST	STETSN	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+0.3
11	5-6	STETSN	BALLST×4	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.2
12	6-6	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+0.3
13	7-6	BALLST	BALLST×4	Attack err	Larissa Hiemer		+0.2
14	8-6	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.2
15	8-7	BALLST	STETSN	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.2
16	8-8	STETSN	STETSN	Attack err	Mallory Pike		+0.3
17	9-8	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.2
18	9-9	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Sofia Torcello	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.2
19	9-10	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.4
20	10-10	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+0.3
21	11-10	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Vitoria Stedile	+0.3
22	11-11	BALLST	STETSN×3	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.3
23	11-12	STETSN	STETSN×3	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Kayla Balfour	+0.4
24	11-13	STETSN	STETSN×3	Ace	STETSN server	aced Mallory Pike	+0.5
25	12-13	STETSN	BALLST	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.3
26	12-14	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Jannelize Perez	+0.4
27	13-14	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.3
28	13-15	BALLST	STETSN	Attack err	Mallory Pike		+0.5
29	14-15	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.4
30	15-15	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Gwen Crull	+0.5
31	15-16	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.4
32	16-16	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+0.4
33	16-17	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.5
34	17-17	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+0.4
35	18-17	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer		+0.5
36	18-18	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.4
37	18-19	STETSN	STETSN	Ace	STETSN server	aced Sophie Ledbetter	+0.7
38	19-19	STETSN	BALLST×5	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.5
39	20-19	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.6
40	21-19	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Reese Axness	+0.5
41	22-19	BALLST	BALLST×5	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Camryn Wise, Audrey Geer	+0.3
42	23-19	BALLST	BALLST×5	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.2
43	23-20	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Jannelize Perez	+0.1
44	24-20	STETSN	BALLST	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.1
45	25-20	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Kayla Balfour	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
2	2-0	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith		+0.1
3	2-1	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Kayla Balfour	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.1
4	3-1	STETSN	BALLST	Serve err	STETSN server		+0.1
5	3-2	BALLST	STETSN	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.1
6	3-3	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Lelia Fitz	set Jannelize Perez	+0.1
7	4-3	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
8	4-4	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.1
9	5-4	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Leah Pike	set Reese Axness	+0.1
10	5-5	BALLST	STETSN	Attack err	Leah Pike		+0.1
11	6-5	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.1
12	6-6	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.1
13	6-7	STETSN	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.1
14	7-7	STETSN	BALLST×4	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Reese Axness	+0.1
15	8-7	BALLST	BALLST×4	Kill	Merritt Sliwa	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.1
16	9-7	BALLST	BALLST×4	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Camryn Wise	+0.1
17	10-7	BALLST	BALLST×4	Attack err	Kayla Balfour	blk Camryn Wise	+0.1
18	10-8	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	set Jannelize Perez	+0.1
19	11-8	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Merritt Sliwa	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
20	11-9	BALLST	STETSN	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.1
21	12-9	STETSN	BALLST	Attack err	Lelia Fitz		+0.1
22	12-10	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Keely Starnes	set Maia Keely Pou	+0.1
23	13-10	STETSN	BALLST×5	Kill	Leah Pike	set Lindsey Green	+0.1
24	14-10	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+0.1
25	15-10	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Ava Smith	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.0
26	16-10	BALLST	BALLST×5	Kill	Ava Smith	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.0
27	17-10	BALLST	BALLST×5	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez		+0.0
28	17-11	BALLST	STETSN	Attack err	Merritt Sliwa		+0.0
29	18-11	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Lucy McCollum	set Reese Axness	+0.0
30	18-12	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Soraya Teston	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.0
31	19-12	STETSN	BALLST	Attack err	Karsu Bayraktar	blk Merritt Sliwa, Alana Bailey	+0.0
32	20-12	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Jannelize Perez	+0.0
33	20-13	BALLST	STETSN	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.0
34	21-13	STETSN	BALLST	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	blk Camryn Wise, Lucy McCollum	+0.0
35	22-13	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Lindsey Green	set Lucy McCollum	+0.0
36	22-14	BALLST	STETSN	Kill	Karsu Bayraktar	set Larissa Hiemer	+0.0
37	23-14	STETSN	BALLST	Attack err	Andrea Diaz Dominguez	blk Tiffany Snook, Camryn Wise	+0.0
38	24-14	BALLST	BALLST	Bad set	Maia Keely Pou		+0.0
39	24-15	BALLST	STETSN	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.0
40	25-15	STETSN	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lucy McCollum	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Ball St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.