Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 17, 2026

Northwestern def. Ball St. 3–1

Northwestern won at Ball St. 3-1 (25-17, 22-25, 26-24, 25-23) on Thu, Sep 17, 2026. Northwestern's Mara Stiglic led with 22 kills, and Lauren Dignan added 22 digs.

Data through · final Sep 17

Set1234Sets
NW252226253
BALLST172524231

Win probability

Ball St. above 50 · Northwestern below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+17.9% NWrally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 17.9% to Northwestern — set 4, NW 25-23 BALLST. Northwestern ace on Ava Smith. BALLST win probability 18% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW 31.2%68.8% BALLST

Northwestern wins

3-0
6.0%
3-1
11.0%
3-2
14.2%

Ball St. wins

3-0
22.4%
3-1
26.4%
3-2
20.0%
NW break %
38.7% vs this opp
BALLST break %
42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    NorthwesternAce+17.9%

    Northwestern ace on Ava Smith

    Set 4 · NW 25-23 BALLST · NW 82% → 100%

  2. 02

    Madison Buckley stuffed by Mara Stiglic & Gabrielle Gerry

    Set 4 · NW 24-23 BALLST · NW 66% → 82%

  3. 03

    Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 3 · NW 26-24 BALLST · NW 50% → 65%

  4. 04
    Ava SmithKill+13.9%

    Kill by Ava Smith (set by Lucy McCollum)

    Set 3 · NW 24-24 BALLST · BALLST 45% → 59%

  5. 05

    Mara Stiglic stuffed by Gwen Crull & Madison Buckley

    Set 4 · NW 22-23 BALLST · BALLST 30% → 42%

  6. 06
    Mara StiglicKill+11.1%

    Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 4 · NW 22-21 BALLST · NW 66% → 77%

  7. 07
    Mara StiglicKill+9.3%

    Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 3 · NW 25-24 BALLST · NW 41% → 50%

  8. 08
    Ball St.Ace+9.1%

    Ball St. ace on Gigi Navarrete

    Set 2 · NW 22-23 BALLST · BALLST 44% → 53%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
422749.30610014004224
417032.53102362010.519.5
413333.30300010010.513.5
45111.364000101227
4014-.2505510600212
4000–1121200001
45212.250000000427
4000–2122200001
4000–003920000
1000–000000211
1000–000000000
Team totals6214141.34059510715116998
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419654.24101092111.521.5
411426.26900030010.511.5
45116.250011301439
3000–1600800000
2307.429000000003
1127-.143000300001
48422.1820001004210
48324.20800283010.58.5
4002.0002011600001
4000–7131300001
2406.66700000132.56.5
2001.0001311300001
Team totals5920165.23656585753141089

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 NW · BALLST 4

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 7 NWBALLST 2

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 2 NWBALLST 4

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 5 NWBALLST 4

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 NWBALLST 3

Bars above the line = Ball St. leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
53%10/19
2
83%10/12
17%2/12
3
67%10/15
44%8/18
4
50%9/18
23%3/13
5
60%9/15
59%13/22
6
53%8/15
38%5/13
All
63%57/90
42%41/97

Ball St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
33%5/15
2
67%10/15
31%5/16
3
67%10/15
17%2/12
4
64%9/14
53%10/19
5
36%8/22
31%4/13
6
73%8/11
47%7/15
All
58%56/97
37%33/90

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#NW-BALLSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+1.5
20-2BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+2.1
31-2BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.4
41-3NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+1.5
52-3BALLSTNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.5
63-3NWNW×3Attack errAva Smith+2.4
74-3NWNW×3KillMaya Stillwell+2.6
84-4NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+1.7
95-4BALLSTNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.8
105-5NWBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+1.7
116-5BALLSTNWAttack errAudrey Geer+1.9
126-6NWBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+1.8
137-6BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
147-7NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+1.8
157-8BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+2.7
168-8BALLSTNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
179-8NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.9
1810-8NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+3.1
1910-9NWBALLSTServe errNorthwestern+1.9
2010-10BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+3.0
2111-10BALLSTNWAttack errGwen Crull+2.2
2211-11NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+2.1
2312-11BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.3
2412-12NWBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+2.1
2513-12BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.4
2613-13NWBALLSTServe errNorthwestern+2.2
2714-13BALLSTNW×7KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.5
2815-13NWNW×7KillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+3.7
2916-13NWNW×7Attack errMadison Buckley+3.6
3017-13NWNW×7KillIsabella Bullingtonset Lauren Dignan+3.2
3118-13NWNW×7Attack errAudrey Geer+2.6
3219-13NWNW×7KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.8
3320-13NWNW×7Bad setMadison Buckley+1.2
3420-14NWBALLSTServe errNorthwestern+0.4
3521-14BALLSTNWAttack errTiffany Snook+0.7
3621-15NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.3
3722-15BALLSTNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.6
3823-15NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.3
3924-15NWNW×3Attack errAva Smith+0.1
4024-16NWBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green·
4124-17BALLSTBALLSTAceBall St.·
4225-17BALLSTNWServe errBall St.·
Set 2
11-0BALLSTNWServe errBall St.+2.1
21-1NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+2.0
32-1BALLSTNWAttack errGwen Crull+2.1
43-1NWNWAttack errTiffany Snook+3.2
53-2NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+2.0
64-2BALLSTNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
74-3NWBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.1
84-4BALLSTBALLST×4KillMallory Pikeset Reese Axness+3.1
94-5BALLSTBALLST×4Attack errCampbell Paris+3.1
104-6BALLSTBALLST×4KillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+2.9
115-6BALLSTNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
126-6NWNWAceNorthwesternaced Mallory Pike+3.2
136-7NWBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+2.2
147-7BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.3
157-8NWBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Reese Axness+2.2
168-8BALLSTNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+2.3
179-8NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+3.7
189-9NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lucy McCollum+2.4
1910-9BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.6
2010-10NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lucy McCollum+2.5
2111-10BALLSTNWBlockedAva Smithblk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell+2.7
2211-11NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lucy McCollum+2.6
2311-12BALLSTBALLSTAttack errMaya Stillwell+3.8
2412-12BALLSTNWServe errBall St.+2.7
2512-13NWBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+2.7
2613-13BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.8
2713-14NWBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+2.8
2814-14BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.9
2915-14NWNWBlockedMadison Buckleyblk Mara Stiglic, Hayley Schaaf+4.6
3015-15NWBALLST×3Serve errNorthwestern+3.1
3115-16BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errMara Stiglic+4.6
3215-17BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errHayley Schaaf+4.3
3316-17BALLSTNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+2.7
3417-17NWNWAttack errTiffany Snook+4.9
3517-18NWBALLSTServe errNorthwestern+3.5
3617-19BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lucy McCollum+4.9
3718-19BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+3.0
3819-19NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+5.5
3919-20NWBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Sophie Ledbetter+4.1
4020-20BALLSTNWServe errBall St.+4.2
4121-20NWNWBlockedAva Smithblk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell+7.2
4221-21NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lucy McCollum+4.7
4322-21BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+5.7
4422-22NWBALLST×4BlockedCampbell Parisblk Ava Smith+5.3
4522-23BALLSTBALLST×4AceBall St.aced Gigi Navarrete+9.1
4622-24BALLSTBALLST×4KillMallory Pikeset Sophie Ledbetter+8.0
4722-25BALLSTBALLST×4KillMallory Pikeset Reese Axness+4.0
Set 3
11-0NWNW×3BlockedAva Smithblk Maya Stillwell+3.3
22-0NWNW×3Bad setLucy McCollum+3.5
33-0NWNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.5
43-1NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lucy McCollum+2.2
54-1BALLSTNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.5
65-1NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+3.5
75-2NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lucy McCollum+2.1
86-2BALLSTNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.5
97-2NWNW×3KillHayley Schaaf+3.3
108-2NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+3.0
118-3NWBALLST×3Serve errNorthwestern+1.6
128-4BALLSTBALLST×3BlockedEllie Stiernagleblk Gwen Crull+2.8
138-5BALLSTBALLST×3KillMallory Pikeset Sophie Ledbetter+3.2
149-5BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.6
1510-5NWNWBlockedMadison Buckleyblk Hayley Schaaf, Mara Stiglic+3.4
1610-6NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+1.9
1710-7BALLSTBALLSTAceBall St.aced Isabella Bullington+3.3
1811-7BALLSTNWServe errBall St.+2.7
1911-8NWBALLST×3KillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+2.2
2011-9BALLSTBALLST×3BlockedMara Stiglicblk Leah Pike, Tiffany Snook+3.8
2111-10BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Isabella Bullington+4.1
2212-10BALLSTNWServe errBall St.+3.2
2312-11NWBALLSTKillLeah Pikeset Lucy McCollum+2.8
2413-11BALLSTNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.3
2513-12NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lucy McCollum+2.9
2614-12BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+3.4
2714-13NWBALLSTServe errNorthwestern+3.0
2815-13BALLSTNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.6
2915-14NWBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+3.1
3015-15BALLSTBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+5.1
3116-15BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+3.8
3217-15NWNWAceNorthwesternaced Mallory Pike+5.7
3317-16NWBALLSTBlockedMara Stiglicblk Madison Buckley, Gwen Crull+3.4
3417-17BALLSTBALLSTBlockedHayley Schaafblk Leah Pike, Mallory Pike+5.6
3518-17BALLSTNW×5KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+4.3
3619-17NWNW×5KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+6.4
3720-17NWNW×5KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+5.9
3821-17NWNW×5Attack errMallory Pike+4.6
3922-17NWNW×5AceNorthwesternaced Ava Smith+3.0
4022-18NWBALLST×3KillMallory Pikeset Sophie Ledbetter+1.0
4122-19BALLSTBALLST×3KillLeah Pikeset Lucy McCollum+2.5
4222-20BALLSTBALLST×3KillMallory Pikeset Lucy McCollum+4.1
4323-20BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+4.7
4424-20NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+3.8
4524-21NWBALLST×4KillMallory Pikeset Lucy McCollum+0.7
4624-22BALLSTBALLST×4KillTiffany Snookset Lucy McCollum+2.5
4724-23BALLSTBALLST×4BlockedMara Stiglicblk Leah Pike+5.9
4824-24BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Lucy McCollum+13.9
4925-24BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+9.3
5026-24NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+14.8
Set 4
11-0BALLSTNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.8
21-1NWBALLSTKillLeah Pikeset Lindsey Green+2.7
32-1BALLSTNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+2.8
42-2NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+2.7
53-2BALLSTNWBlockedTiffany Snookblk Hayley Schaaf, Isabella Bullington+2.9
63-3NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+2.8
73-4BALLSTBALLSTAceBall St.aced Gigi Navarrete+4.1
84-4BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.8
94-5NWBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+2.8
105-5BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.9
115-6NWBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Sophie Ledbetter+2.9
125-7BALLSTBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Reese Axness+4.1
136-7BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.7
146-8NWBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+2.8
157-8BALLSTNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.8
167-9NWBALLST×3Serve errNorthwestern+2.9
177-10BALLSTBALLST×3BlockedCampbell Parisblk Ava Smith, Leah Pike+3.9
187-11BALLSTBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+3.3
198-11BALLSTNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
209-11NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Mara Stiglic+3.6
219-12NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+2.8
229-13BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+3.5
2310-13BALLSTNWServe errBall St.+2.0
2411-13NWNWAceNorthwesternaced Mallory Pike+3.8
2511-14NWBALLSTServe errNorthwestern+2.9
2612-14BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.7
2713-14NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+4.8
2813-15NWBALLSTBad setGabrielle Gerry+3.6
2913-16BALLSTBALLSTBlockedMara Stiglicblk Madison Buckley, Gwen Crull+4.7
3014-16BALLSTNWAttack errMallory Pike+2.8
3115-16NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+5.1
3215-17NWBALLSTBlockedMara Stiglicblk Madison Buckley, Gwen Crull+3.9
3316-17BALLSTNWKillCampbell Parisset Lauren Dignan+3.7
3416-18NWBALLSTKillMadison Buckleyset Reese Axness+4.2
3517-18BALLSTNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.9
3617-19NWBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+4.4
3718-19BALLSTNWServe errBall St.+4.0
3819-19NWNWBlockedAva Smithblk Hayley Schaaf, Ellie Stiernagle+7.5
3919-20NWBALLSTKillLeah Pikeset Lindsey Green+5.6
4020-20BALLSTNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+5.6
4120-21NWBALLSTServe errNorthwestern+6.2
4221-21BALLSTNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+6.2
4322-21NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+11.1
4422-22NWBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+7.1
4522-23BALLSTBALLSTBlockedMara Stiglicblk Gwen Crull, Madison Buckley+12.3
4623-23BALLSTNW×3BlockedMallory Pikeblk Ellie Stiernagle, Gabrielle Gerry+8.0
4724-23NWNW×3BlockedMadison Buckleyblk Mara Stiglic, Gabrielle Gerry+16.3
4825-23NWNW×3AceNorthwesternaced Ava Smith+17.9

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).