Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Bowling Green def. Ball St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Ball St. 64.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Bowling Green won at Ball St. 3-1 (27-25, 16-25, 25-20, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Anastasija Bozic led Bowling Green with 19 kills; Ball St.'s Ava Smith had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set1234Sets
BGSU271625253
BALLST252520221

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Sydnie Hernandez dug 32 balls to keep Bowling Green alive against Ball St.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Bowling Green's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, Ball St. was RallyIQ's 64% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Bowling Green 24–24 Ball St.

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Bowling Green, enough to take the set 27–25 and lead 1–0. The match swung to Bowling Green.

    Bowling Green 36% → 56%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · Bowling Green 15–17 Ball St.

    7 straight Bowling Green points turned a 15–17 deficit into a 22–17 lead. The match swung to Bowling Green.

    Bowling Green 31% → 65%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Bowling Green 21–22 Ball St.

    Bowling Green won 4 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–22 and win the match 3–1.

    Bowling Green 61% → >99%

Ball St. above 50Bowling Green belowMax swing 12.3%

Bowling GreenBall St.

Sideout %
Bowling Green 59.1·Ball St. 58.7
Break %
Bowling Green 41.3·Ball St. 40.9
Hitting
Bowling Green .263·Ball St. .257
Longest run
Bowling Green 7·Ball St. 5

Anastasija Bozic
4 of her kills came in the stretches above. 19 K, .246, 20 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Ball St. above 50 · Bowling Green below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+12.3% BGSUrally 185 · set 4

Biggest swing: 12.3% to Bowling Green — set 4, BGSU 23-22 BALLST. Bowling Green ace on Mallory Pike. BALLST win probability 32% → 19%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

BGSU 38.1%61.9% BALLST

Bowling Green wins

3-0
8.1%
3-1
13.8%
3-2
16.2%

Ball St. wins

3-0
18.2%
3-1
23.7%
3-2
20.0%
BGSU break %
40.1% vs this opp
BALLST break %
42.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Bowling GreenAce+12.3%

    Bowling Green ace on Mallory Pike

    Set 4 · BGSU 23-22 BALLST · BGSU 68% → 81%

  2. 02
    Amanda OttenKill+12.3%

    Kill by Amanda Otten (set by Anastasija Bozic)

    Set 4 · BGSU 24-22 BALLST · BGSU 81% → 93%

  3. 03
    Bowling GreenAce+10.5%

    Bowling Green ace on Audrey Geer

    Set 1 · BGSU 27-25 BALLST · BGSU 46% → 56%

  4. 04

    Camryn Wise stuffed by Karli Molnau & Helen Wilford

    Set 1 · BGSU 25-24 BALLST · BGSU 36% → 46%

  5. 05
    Mallory PikeBlock+9.4%

    Karli Molnau stuffed by Mallory Pike

    Set 1 · BGSU 23-24 BALLST · BALLST 61% → 71%

  6. 06
    Helen WilfordKill+8.5%

    Kill by Helen Wilford (set by Amanda Otten)

    Set 4 · BGSU 21-21 BALLST · BGSU 60% → 68%

  7. 07

    Kill by Anastasija Bozic (set by Amanda Otten)

    Set 4 · BGSU 25-22 BALLST · BGSU 93% → 100%

  8. 08
    Camryn WiseKill+7.1%

    Kill by Camryn Wise (set by Lindsey Green)

    Set 1 · BGSU 25-25 BALLST · BALLST 54% → 61%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419557.24650017002120
416549.22401111300017
412430.2670002002113
47016.4381132012210
47312.333441290010.58.5
44211.18210010132.56.5
4000–120610002
4000–7223200002
4000–011100001
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6519175.2635989814210793
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420138.5000114000021
413138.31602120010.515.5
411641.12241116210113
47421.1433001850007
45217.17600030010.55.5
4000–22001200000
43214.071000201014
4000–2500900000
4000–4001810000
1102.500000000001
Team totals6016171.257584384822392

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Bowling Green vs Ball St.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 BGSU · BALLST 5

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 4 BGSUBALLST 4

Set 2

16-25

Longest run 3 BGSUBALLST 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 7 BGSUBALLST 4

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 4 BGSUBALLST 5

Bars above the line = Ball St. leads, below = Bowling Green leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Bowling Green

SlotSideout %Break %
1
38%8/21
38%5/13
2
80%8/10
38%5/13
3
55%6/11
50%6/12
4
46%6/13
14%1/7
5
60%6/10
40%4/10
6
86%6/7
54%7/13
All
56%40/72
41%28/68

Ball St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
50%7/14
2
50%7/14
47%7/15
3
67%6/9
42%5/12
4
60%6/10
40%4/10
5
60%6/10
50%6/12
6
46%6/13
33%3/9
All
59%40/68
44%32/72

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

185 rallies

#BGSU-BALLSTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1BALLSTBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Audrey Geer+2.3
20-2BALLSTBALLSTAttack errKarli Molnau+2.2
31-2BALLSTBGSUAttack errMallory Pike+1.6
41-3BGSUBALLSTAttack errKarli Molnau+1.6
52-3BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.6
63-3BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.4
73-4BGSUBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+1.8
83-5BALLSTBALLSTAceBall St.aced Avery Hobson+2.4
94-5BALLSTBGSUBlockedCamryn Wiseblk Helen Wilford+1.7
104-6BGSUBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+1.7
114-7BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errHelen Wilford+2.3
124-8BALLSTBALLST×3KillGwen Crullset Mallory Pike+2.0
135-8BALLSTBGSUKillAmanda Otten+1.3
146-8BGSUBGSUAceBowling Greenaced Audrey Geer+2.2
156-9BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+1.7
166-10BALLSTBALLSTAttack errAnastasija Bozic+2.1
177-10BALLSTBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.3
187-11BGSUBALLSTServe errBowling Green+1.5
198-11BALLSTBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.4
209-11BGSUBGSU×4KillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.3
2110-11BGSUBGSU×4KillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+2.7
2211-11BGSUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+3.0
2311-12BGSUBALLST×4Attack errKarli Molnau+2.2
2411-13BALLSTBALLST×4KillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+3.0
2511-14BALLSTBALLST×4KillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+2.7
2611-15BALLSTBALLST×4Attack errAnastasija Bozic+2.3
2712-15BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+1.4
2812-16BGSUBALLSTBlockedAnastasija Bozicblk Tiffany Snook, Camryn Wise+1.7
2913-16BALLSTBGSUServe errBall St.+1.4
3014-16BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Helen Wilford+2.5
3114-17BGSUBALLST×3Attack errAnastasija Bozic+2.2
3214-18BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errAmanda Otten+2.5
3314-19BALLSTBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+1.8
3415-19BALLSTBGSUKillAmanda Otten+0.9
3515-20BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+1.2
3616-20BALLSTBGSU×3KillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+0.8
3717-20BGSUBGSU×3KillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.7
3818-20BGSUBGSU×3KillAvery Hobsonset Avery Anders+2.6
3918-21BGSUBALLSTServe errBowling Green+2.6
4019-21BALLSTBGSU×4Attack errMallory Pike+1.9
4120-21BGSUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Sydnie Hernandez+3.9
4221-21BGSUBGSU×4BlockedAva Smithblk Cecily Waynar+5.4
4322-21BGSUBGSU×4KillKarli Molnauset Sydnie Hernandez+6.6
4422-22BGSUBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Reese Axness+4.5
4523-22BALLSTBGSUBlockedMallory Pikeblk Karli Molnau, Cecily Waynar+5.7
4623-23BGSUBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Reese Axness+5.3
4723-24BALLSTBALLSTBlockedKarli Molnaublk Mallory Pike+9.4
4824-24BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+6.7
4925-24BGSUBGSUBlockedCamryn Wiseblk Karli Molnau, Helen Wilford+9.8
5025-25BGSUBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+7.1
5126-25BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+7.1
5227-25BGSUBGSUAceBowling Greenaced Audrey Geer+10.5
Set 2
10-1BGSUBALLST×3KillMallory Pikeset Lindsey Green+1.9
20-2BALLSTBALLST×3KillAudrey Geerset Sophie Ledbetter+2.6
30-3BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errAvery Hobson+2.4
41-3BALLSTBGSU×3BlockedAudrey Geerblk Amanda Otten, Helen Wilford+1.7
52-3BGSUBGSU×3KillCecily Waynarset Sydnie Hernandez+2.6
63-3BGSUBGSU×3Attack errAudrey Geer+2.9
73-4BGSUBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+2.1
84-4BALLSTBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Anastasija Bozic+2.1
94-5BGSUBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+2.1
104-6BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.9
115-6BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+2.0
126-6BGSUBGSUBlockedAudrey Geerblk Anastasija Bozic, Cecily Waynar+3.1
136-7BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.2
147-7BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+2.3
157-8BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.3
168-8BALLSTBGSUServe errBall St.+2.4
179-8BGSUBGSUBlockedGwen Crullblk Anastasija Bozic, Helen Wilford+3.5
189-9BGSUBALLSTAttack errAvery Hobson+2.4
199-10BALLSTBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Lindsey Green+3.4
2010-10BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+2.5
2110-11BGSUBALLSTAttack errAvery Hobson+2.5
2211-11BALLSTBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.6
2311-12BGSUBALLST×3Serve errBowling Green+2.6
2411-13BALLSTBALLST×3Attack errAvery Hobson+3.6
2511-14BALLSTBALLST×3AceBall St.aced Avery Anders+3.2
2612-14BALLSTBGSUServe errBall St.+2.1
2712-15BGSUBALLSTServe errBowling Green+2.4
2813-15BALLSTBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Anastasija Bozic+2.1
2913-16BGSUBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.5
3013-17BALLSTBALLST×3KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.8
3113-18BALLSTBALLST×3KillAudrey Geerset Reese Axness+2.1
3214-18BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.1
3314-19BGSUBALLST×4KillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+1.5
3414-20BALLSTBALLST×4AceBall St.aced Avery Hobson+1.3
3514-21BALLSTBALLST×4KillTiffany Snookset Reese Axness+0.7
3614-22BALLSTBALLST×4KillTiffany Snookset Audrey Geer+0.3
3715-22BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+0.1
3815-23BGSUBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Reese Axness+0.2
3916-23BALLSTBGSUKillAmanda Ottenset Amanda Otten·
4016-24BGSUBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+0.1
4116-25BALLSTBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Amanda Otten·
Set 3
10-1BALLSTBALLST×4KillMallory Pikeset Lindsey Green+3.2
20-2BALLSTBALLST×4KillMallory Pikeset Lindsey Green+3.0
30-3BALLSTBALLST×4KillMallory Pikeset Lindsey Green+2.8
40-4BALLSTBALLST×4Attack errAmanda Otten+2.6
51-4BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.7
6–72-5BGSU · BALLST
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
83-5BGSUBGSUAttack errAudrey Geer+2.8
93-6BGSUBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+2.2
104-6BALLSTBGSUAttack errAnastasija Bozic+2.1
115-6BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+3.2
125-7BGSUBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+2.4
135-8BALLSTBALLSTAttack errHelen Wilford+3.2
146-8BALLSTBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+2.1
156-9BGSUBALLSTKillGwen Crullset Reese Axness+2.3
167-9BALLSTBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.2
177-10BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.4
188-10BALLSTBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Sydnie Hernandez+2.2
199-10BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+3.6
209-11BGSUBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Reese Axness+2.7
2110-11BALLSTBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.7
2210-12BGSUBALLSTServe errBowling Green+2.8
2311-12BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Sydnie Hernandez+2.8
2412-12BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+4.3
2512-13BGSUBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Mallory Pike+3.2
2612-14BALLSTBALLSTAttack errAnastasija Bozic+4.3
2713-14BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+2.9
2813-15BGSUBALLSTKillCamryn Wiseset Lindsey Green+3.2
2914-15BALLSTBGSUKillAmanda Ottenset Anastasija Bozic+3.0
3014-16BGSUBALLSTBlockedAmanda Ottenblk Gwen Crull+3.3
3115-16BALLSTBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+3.2
3215-17BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+3.5
3316-17BALLSTBGSU×7KillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+3.3
3417-17BGSUBGSU×7KillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+5.5
3518-17BGSUBGSU×7Attack errMallory Pike+6.1
3619-17BGSUBGSU×7Attack errGwen Crull+6.2
3720-17BGSUBGSU×7KillAnastasija Bozicset Sydnie Hernandez+5.7
3821-17BGSUBGSU×7KillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+4.5
3922-17BGSUBGSU×7AceBowling Greenaced Audrey Geer+3.0
4022-18BGSUBALLSTServe errBowling Green+1.0
4123-18BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+1.9
4223-19BGSUBALLSTServe errBowling Green+0.7
4324-19BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+1.5
4424-20BGSUBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+0.3
4525-20BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+0.8
Set 4
11-0BGSUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+3.8
21-1BGSUBALLST×5KillTiffany Snookset Audrey Geer+2.7
31-2BALLSTBALLST×5KillAudrey Geerset Sophie Ledbetter+3.7
41-3BALLSTBALLST×5AceBall St.aced Avery Hobson+3.6
51-4BALLSTBALLST×5KillTiffany Snookset Mallory Pike+3.3
61-5BALLSTBALLST×5KillAudrey Geerset Mallory Pike+3.0
72-5BALLSTBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.0
82-6BGSUBALLSTServe errBowling Green+2.2
93-6BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Sydnie Hernandez+2.0
103-7BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Sophie Ledbetter+2.2
113-8BALLSTBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.7
124-8BALLSTBGSUKillAmanda Ottenset Sydnie Hernandez+1.7
134-9BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+1.9
145-9BALLSTBGSUKillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+1.7
156-9BGSUBGSUAceBowling Greenaced Mallory Pike+2.9
166-10BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.3
177-10BALLSTBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.1
188-10BGSUBGSUAceBowling Greenaced Audrey Geer+3.5
198-11BGSUBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Reese Axness+2.8
209-11BALLSTBGSUAttack errMallory Pike+2.6
2110-11BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Cecily Waynar+4.2
2210-12BGSUBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+3.3
2311-12BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+3.2
2412-12BGSUBGSUAceBowling Greenaced Sophie Ledbetter+5.0
2512-13BGSUBALLSTKillAudrey Geerset Lindsey Green+3.7
2613-13BALLSTBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+3.7
2713-14BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Lindsey Green+3.8
2814-14BALLSTBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+3.9
2914-15BGSUBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+4.0
3014-16BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+5.4
3114-17BALLSTBALLST×4Attack errAvery Hobson+4.8
3214-18BALLSTBALLST×4KillAva Smithset Reese Axness+3.9
3315-18BALLSTBGSUKillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+2.1
3415-19BGSUBALLSTKillAva Smithset Reese Axness+2.8
3516-19BALLSTBGSU×3KillAmanda Ottenset Anastasija Bozic+2.1
3617-19BGSUBGSU×3Attack errMallory Pike+4.2
3718-19BGSUBGSU×3Attack errTiffany Snook+5.7
3818-20BGSUBALLSTKillLeah Pikeset Reese Axness+4.9
3919-20BALLSTBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+4.3
4019-21BGSUBALLSTKillMallory Pikeset Lindsey Green+5.3
4120-21BALLSTBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+4.5
4221-21BGSUBGSUKillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+8.5
4321-22BGSUBALLSTKillTiffany Snookset Lindsey Green+7.1
4422-22BALLSTBGSU×4KillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+7.0
4523-22BGSUBGSU×4AceBowling Greenaced Mallory Pike+12.3
4624-22BGSUBGSU×4KillAmanda Ottenset Anastasija Bozic+12.3
4725-22BGSUBGSU×4KillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+7.1

Score shown after each rally, Bowling Green first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).