FinalWed, Sep 2, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

0:3

HomeSEC

Texas def. Southern California 3–0

(25-16, 25-21, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
USC	16	21	20	0
TEXAS	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TEXAS above 50 · USC below

Biggest swing: 3.3% to Texas — set 2, USC 19-20 TEXAS. Kill by Henley Anderson (set by Rella Binney). TEXAS win probability 86% → 89%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

USC 22.3%77.7% TEXAS

Southern California wins

3-0

3.8%

3-1

7.5%

3-2

11.0%

Texas wins

3-0

29.3%

3-1

29.5%

3-2

18.8%

USC break %: 36.4% vs this opp
TEXAS break %: 42.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Henley AndersonKill+3.3%
Kill by Henley Anderson (set by Rella Binney)
Set 2 · USC 19-20 TEXAS · TEXAS 86% → 89%
02
Torrey StaffordKill+3.0%
Kill by Torrey Stafford (set by Rella Binney)
Set 2 · USC 19-21 TEXAS · TEXAS 89% → 92%
03
Mia TvrdyKill+2.6%
Kill by Mia Tvrdy (set by Lilli Etter)
Set 2 · USC 15-14 TEXAS · USC 13% → 15%
04
Cari SpearsAttack error+2.2%
Cari Spears stuffed by London Wijay & Mia Tvrdy
Set 2 · USC 14-14 TEXAS · USC 11% → 13%
05
London WijayKill+2.2%
Kill by London Wijay (set by Lilli Etter)
Set 2 · USC 19-18 TEXAS · USC 14% → 16%
06
Lilli EtterAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Lilli Etter
Set 2 · USC 19-22 TEXAS · TEXAS 92% → 94%
07
Cari SpearsAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Cari Spears
Set 1 · USC 3-2 TEXAS · USC 22% → 24%
08
Cari SpearsKill+2.1%
Kill by Cari Spears (set by Rella Binney)
Set 1 · USC 5-6 TEXAS · TEXAS 77% → 79%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Californiaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2London WijayOH	3	11	4	29	.241	1	0	1	7	0	2	1	12
5Abigail MullenOPP	3	9	4	28	.179	0	1	1	3	1	2	1	11
7Leah FordMB	3	5	2	12	.250	0	0	1	3	0	5	2.5	7.5
8Mia TvrdyMB	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
16Lilli EtterS	3	0	2	3	-.667	28	1	1	6	0	2	1	2
1Adonia FaumuinaOH	2	2	3	6	-.167	0	0	2	0	1	2	1	3
21Brooklyn TealerOH	3	0	2	7	-.286	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
6Taylor DeckertL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
17Paisley DouglasL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0
10Quinn LoperOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		32	19	96	.135	30	3	8	32	4	16	8	57

Texashome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
23Cari SpearsOH	3	17	4	28	.464	1	2	2	8	0	0	2	1	20
4Torrey StaffordOH	3	14	6	32	.250	0	0	3	5	2	1	2	2	16
55Nya BuntonMB	3	4	0	13	.308	0	0	0	0	0	1	7	4.5	8.5
22Henley AndersonOH	3	5	2	20	.150	1	1	2	2	0	0	2	1	7
3Rella BinneyS	3	1	0	2	.500	31	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	2
10Taylor HarveyMB	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
32Ramsey GaryL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	0
16Anja KujundzicL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Ella SwindleS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
2Callie KruegerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	12	97	.309	36	4	10	36	3	2	18	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 USC · TEXAS 8

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 USCTEXAS 4

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 USCTEXAS 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 5 USCTEXAS 8

Bars above the line = Texas leads, below = Southern California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern California

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%9/17	30%3/10
2	88%7/8	25%3/12
3	60%6/10	53%8/15
4	43%6/14	33%3/9
5	33%6/18	0%0/6
6	86%6/7	0%0/6
All	54%40/74	29%17/58

Texas

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	90%9/10	33%4/12
2	47%7/15	42%5/12
3	54%7/13	30%3/10
4	100%6/6	50%6/12
5	100%6/6	68%13/19
6	75%6/8	33%3/9
All	71%41/58	46%34/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	USC-TEXAS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TEXAS	USC	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Mia Tvrdy, Abigail Mullen	+1.4
2	1-1	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.3
3	1-2	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears		+1.9
4	2-2	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set London Wijay	+1.3
5	3-2	USC	USC	Attack err	Cari Spears		+2.2
6	3-3	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.3
7	4-3	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+1.5
8	4-4	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+1.4
9	5-4	TEXAS	USC	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford	+1.5
10	5-5	USC	TEXAS	Serve err	USC server		+1.4
11	5-6	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+2.1
12	6-6	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.4
13	6-7	USC	TEXAS	Serve err	USC server		+1.4
14	6-8	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	London Wijay		+2.0
15	7-8	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.3
16	7-9	USC	TEXAS×4	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.3
17	7-10	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Adonia Faumuina	+1.8
18	7-11	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Attack err	London Wijay		+1.5
19	7-12	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina	blk Taylor Harvey, Torrey Stafford	+1.2
20	8-12	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
21	8-13	USC	TEXAS	Serve err	USC server		+0.8
22	9-13	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
23	9-14	USC	TEXAS×3	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+0.8
24	9-15	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.9
25	9-16	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Nya Bunton		+0.6
26	10-16	TEXAS	USC×3	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.2
27	11-16	USC	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
28	12-16	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Henley Anderson	blk Leah Ford, Lilli Etter	+0.9
29	12-17	USC	TEXAS×3	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.8
30	12-18	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Rella Binney		+0.8
31	12-19	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Abigail Mullen	+0.5
32	13-19	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.2
33	13-20	USC	TEXAS×3	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+0.3
34	13-21	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.2
35	13-22	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina		+0.1
36	14-22	TEXAS	USC	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford	+0.0
37	14-23	USC	TEXAS	Serve err	USC server		+0.0
38	15-23	TEXAS	USC	Attack err	Torrey Stafford		+0.0
39	15-24	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Ramsey Gary	+0.0
40	16-24	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.0
41	16-25	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.9
2	0-2	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Brooklyn Tealer	blk Taylor Harvey, Henley Anderson	+1.4
3	1-2	TEXAS	USC×3	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.9
4	2-2	USC	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+1.5
5	3-2	USC	USC×3	Ace	USC server	aced Ramsey Gary	+1.7
6	3-3	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.0
7	4-3	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.1
8	4-4	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.1
9	5-4	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.2
10	5-5	USC	TEXAS×4	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.1
11	5-6	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Team	+1.7
12	5-7	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.5
13	5-8	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Attack err	Abigail Mullen	blk Torrey Stafford, Nya Bunton	+1.4
14	6-8	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.8
15	6-9	USC	TEXAS×3	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Ramsey Gary	+0.9
16	6-10	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.2
17	6-11	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.9
18	7-11	TEXAS	USC	Attack err	Torrey Stafford		+0.5
19	7-12	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.6
20	8-12	TEXAS	USC	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Lilli Etter, Leah Ford	+0.5
21	9-12	USC	USC	Ace	USC server	aced Torrey Stafford	+1.0
22	9-13	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Ramsey Gary	+0.8
23	10-13	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.7
24	11-13	USC	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.4
25	11-14	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.0
26	12-14	TEXAS	USC×4	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
27	13-14	USC	USC×4	Attack err	Henley Anderson		+1.8
28	14-14	USC	USC×4	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk London Wijay, Mia Tvrdy	+2.2
29	15-14	USC	USC×4	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+2.6
30	15-15	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.6
31	16-15	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+1.8
32	16-16	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.7
33	17-16	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+1.9
34	17-17	USC	TEXAS	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.8
35	18-17	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+2.0
36	18-18	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Henley Anderson	+1.9
37	19-18	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+2.2
38	19-19	USC	TEXAS×4	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+2.0
39	19-20	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+3.3
40	19-21	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+3.0
41	19-22	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Attack err	Lilli Etter		+2.2
42	20-22	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.9
43	20-23	USC	TEXAS	Serve err	USC server		+1.4
44	21-23	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.8
45	21-24	USC	TEXAS	Attack err	London Wijay	blk Cari Spears, Nya Bunton	+1.4
46	21-25	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Leah Ford	blk Nya Bunton, Henley Anderson	+0.7
Set 3
1	1-0	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Taylor Deckert	+0.5
2	1-1	USC	TEXAS	Attack err	Leah Ford		+0.5
3	2-1	TEXAS	USC×5	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
4	3-1	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk London Wijay, Mia Tvrdy	+0.9
5	4-1	USC	USC×5	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Rella Binney	+0.9
6	5-1	USC	USC×5	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
7	6-1	USC	USC×5	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
8	6-2	USC	TEXAS	Serve err	USC server		+0.5
9	7-2	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
10	8-2	USC	USC	Ace	USC server	aced Torrey Stafford	+0.8
11	8-3	USC	TEXAS×4	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.4
12	8-4	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+0.8
13	8-5	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Paisley Douglas	+0.8
14	8-6	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Kill	Nya Bunton		+0.9
15	9-6	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.7
16	9-7	USC	TEXAS	Serve err	USC server		+0.6
17	10-7	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.7
18	10-8	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.6
19	11-8	TEXAS	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.7
20	12-8	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Leah Ford, Abigail Mullen	+1.1
21	13-8	USC	USC×3	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+1.0
22	13-9	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Rella Binney	+0.5
23	13-10	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
24	14-10	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.7
25	14-11	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+0.6
26	15-11	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.8
27	15-12	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+0.6
28	15-13	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy	blk Cari Spears, Nya Bunton	+1.1
29	16-13	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.9
30	16-14	USC	TEXAS	Bad set	Abigail Mullen		+0.7
31	17-14	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
32	17-15	USC	TEXAS×8	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+0.7
33	17-16	TEXAS	TEXAS×8	Attack err	Brooklyn Tealer	blk Ella Swindle, Nya Bunton	+1.3
34	17-17	TEXAS	TEXAS×8	Attack err	Lilli Etter	blk Torrey Stafford	+1.4
35	17-18	TEXAS	TEXAS×8	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Cari Spears	+1.4
36	17-19	TEXAS	TEXAS×8	Attack err	London Wijay		+1.3
37	17-20	TEXAS	TEXAS×8	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina	blk Ella Swindle, Nya Bunton	+1.0
38	17-21	TEXAS	TEXAS×8	Bad set	Abigail Mullen		+0.7
39	17-22	TEXAS	TEXAS×8	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy	blk Ella Swindle, Nya Bunton	+0.4
40	18-22	TEXAS	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.1
41	18-23	USC	TEXAS	Serve err	USC server		+0.2
42	19-23	TEXAS	USC	Kill	Quinn Loper	set Lilli Etter	+0.1
43	19-24	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.2
44	20-24	TEXAS	USC	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.0
45	20-25	USC	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Southern California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.