FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayHORIZON

3:0

HomeMEAC

Cleveland St. def. Morgan St. 3–0

(25-19, 25-21, 25-16)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
CLE ST	25	25	25	3
MORGAN	19	21	16	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MORGAN above 50 · CLE ST below

Biggest swing: 2.4% to Cleveland St. — set 2, CLE ST 21-18 MORGAN. Kill by Jazen Debina (set by Fiona Cooper). MORGAN win probability 11% → 8%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

CLE ST 73.0%27.0% MORGAN

Cleveland St. wins

3-0

25.5%

3-1

28.0%

3-2

19.6%

Morgan St. wins

3-0

4.9%

3-1

9.3%

3-2

12.7%

CLE ST break %: 45.1% vs this opp
MORGAN break %: 40.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jazen DebinaKill+2.4%
Kill by Jazen Debina (set by Fiona Cooper)
Set 2 · CLE ST 21-18 MORGAN · CLE ST 89% → 92%
02
Addison KoppelmanAttack error+2.4%
Addison Koppelman stuffed by Zayda Thomas
Set 2 · CLE ST 18-17 MORGAN · MORGAN 11% → 13%
03
MORGAN serverAce+2.4%
Morgan St. ace on Bryn VanVleet
Set 1 · CLE ST 8-8 MORGAN · MORGAN 25% → 27%
04
Jazen DebinaKill+2.3%
Kill by Jazen Debina
Set 1 · CLE ST 10-8 MORGAN · CLE ST 75% → 77%
05
Nathalia MoraisAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Nathalia Morais
Set 2 · CLE ST 20-18 MORGAN · CLE ST 87% → 89%
06
Isabelle BrownBad set+2.2%
Bad set by Isabelle Brown
Set 1 · CLE ST 13-10 MORGAN · CLE ST 77% → 79%
07
Jazen DebinaAttack error+2.2%
Jazen Debina stuffed by Michaela Panekova & Jada Williams
Set 1 · CLE ST 1-2 MORGAN · MORGAN 27% → 29%
08
Bryn VanVleetKill+2.1%
Kill by Bryn VanVleet (set by Fiona Cooper)
Set 1 · CLE ST 4-3 MORGAN · CLE ST 73% → 75%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Cleveland St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
0Jazen DebinaMB	3	8	4	18	.222	0	4	1	2	0	1	0	1	13
18Addison KoppelmanOH	3	12	2	25	.400	1	0	2	6	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
6Bryn VanVleetOH	3	12	6	24	.250	0	0	3	5	2	0	0	0	12
2JeriLynn KoehlerMB	3	4	2	7	.286	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
10Julia JozefovMB	3	4	1	13	.231	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Fiona CooperS	3	2	0	4	.500	29	0	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
7Vayda DelventhalDS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	1	2	10	0	0	0	0	1
24Allison SalazarS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Laila MosseyDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
8Sariyah GlantonMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	15	92	.293	35	6	10	33	3	2	4	4	75

Morgan St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Nathalia MoraisOH	3	8	6	18	.111	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	8
9Michaela PanekovaOH	3	6	3	21	.143	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Aubrey WilsonMB	3	4	1	8	.375	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	5
1Jada WilliamsMB	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
4Isabelle BrownS	3	1	0	4	.250	19	0	1	4	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
21Kira DevriezeL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
16Zayda ThomasOH	3	4	3	13	.077	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	5
6Tameary WardlawL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	2	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
5Bailey SwintonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	3	6	0	0	0	0	1
14Tyrah WeemsMB	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		26	15	79	.139	23	3	9	24	6	1	4	3	56

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 CLE ST · MORGAN 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 CLE STMORGAN 3

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 5 CLE STMORGAN 4

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 3 CLE STMORGAN 2

Bars above the line = Morgan St. leads, below = Cleveland St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Cleveland St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	47%7/15
2	64%7/11	30%3/10
3	75%6/8	67%12/18
4	55%6/11	33%3/9
5	86%6/7	45%5/11
6	86%6/7	45%5/11
All	70%40/57	47%35/74

Morgan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	13%1/8
2	50%7/14	47%7/15
3	43%6/14	13%1/8
4	55%6/11	33%3/9
5	55%6/11	33%3/9
6	46%6/13	25%2/8
All	53%39/74	30%17/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

131 rallies

Rally log

#	CLE ST-MORGAN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CLE ST	CLE ST	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+2.0
2	1-1	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+1.5
3	1-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Jazen Debina	blk Michaela Panekova, Jada Williams	+2.2
4	2-2	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	JeriLynn Koehler	set Fiona Cooper	+1.6
5	2-3	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+1.7
6	3-3	MORGAN	CLE ST×4	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Isabelle Brown	+1.6
7	4-3	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Fiona Cooper	+2.1
8	5-3	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk Julia Jozefov, Fiona Cooper	+2.0
9	6-3	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Kill	Julia Jozefov	set Fiona Cooper	+1.8
10	6-4	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Fiona Cooper	+1.3
11	7-4	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Fiona Cooper	+1.4
12	7-5	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+1.3
13	7-6	MORGAN	MORGAN	Bad set	Fiona Cooper		+2.1
14	8-6	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Fiona Cooper	set Fiona Cooper	+1.6
15	8-7	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Isabelle Brown	+1.6
16	8-8	MORGAN	MORGAN	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Bryn VanVleet	+2.4
17	9-8	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+1.8
18	10-8	CLE ST	CLE ST	Kill	Jazen Debina		+2.3
19	10-9	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+1.7
20	11-9	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+1.7
21	11-10	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+1.7
22	12-10	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.8
23	13-10	CLE ST	CLE ST	Bad set	Isabelle Brown		+2.2
24	13-11	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+1.5
25	14-11	MORGAN	CLE ST×4	Kill	Jazen Debina	set Julia Jozefov	+1.7
26	15-11	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Fiona Cooper	+1.9
27	16-11	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Ace	CLE ST server	aced Team	+1.5
28	17-11	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Ace	CLE ST server	aced Team	+1.1
29	17-12	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+0.6
30	17-13	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Tameary Wardlaw	+1.1
31	18-13	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Julia Jozefov	set Fiona Cooper	+1.1
32	19-13	CLE ST	CLE ST	Kill	Julia Jozefov	set Fiona Cooper	+1.0
33	19-14	CLE ST	MORGAN×3	Serve err	CLE ST server		+0.5
34	19-15	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Bryn VanVleet		+1.0
35	19-16	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Julia Jozefov		+1.5
36	20-16	MORGAN	CLE ST	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+1.5
37	21-16	CLE ST	CLE ST	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+1.4
38	21-17	CLE ST	MORGAN	Attack err	JeriLynn Koehler		+0.6
39	22-17	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.9
40	22-18	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.5
41	23-18	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.8
42	24-18	CLE ST	CLE ST	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Isabelle Brown	+0.4
43	24-19	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Kira Devrieze	+0.1
44	25-19	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	JeriLynn Koehler	set Fiona Cooper	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	JeriLynn Koehler	set Fiona Cooper	+1.2
2	1-1	CLE ST	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Addison Koppelman		+1.2
3	1-2	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+1.8
4	1-3	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Bryn VanVleet	blk Isabelle Brown, Jada Williams	+1.9
5	1-4	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Bryn VanVleet		+1.9
6	2-4	MORGAN	CLE ST×5	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Fiona Cooper	+1.3
7	3-4	CLE ST	CLE ST×5	Ace	CLE ST server	aced Team	+1.8
8	4-4	CLE ST	CLE ST×5	Ace	CLE ST server	aced Team	+1.8
9	5-4	CLE ST	CLE ST×5	Kill	Bryn VanVleet		+1.7
10	6-4	CLE ST	CLE ST×5	Kill	Fiona Cooper	set Fiona Cooper	+1.6
11	6-5	CLE ST	MORGAN	Attack err	Jazen Debina		+1.2
12	7-5	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.2
13	7-6	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+1.3
14	7-7	MORGAN	MORGAN	Bad set	Addison Koppelman		+1.9
15	8-7	MORGAN	CLE ST×3	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Fiona Cooper	+1.4
16	9-7	CLE ST	CLE ST×3	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk JeriLynn Koehler, Addison Koppelman	+1.8
17	10-7	CLE ST	CLE ST×3	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+1.6
18	10-8	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+1.1
19	11-8	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+1.2
20	11-9	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.2
21	11-10	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Jazen Debina		+1.9
22	12-10	MORGAN	CLE ST×4	Kill	Jazen Debina	set Fiona Cooper	+1.5
23	13-10	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Attack err	Jada Williams		+1.8
24	14-10	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Attack err	Nathalia Morais	blk Jazen Debina	+1.5
25	15-10	CLE ST	CLE ST×4	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+1.2
26	15-11	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.7
27	16-11	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Addison Koppelman	+0.9
28	16-12	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Bailey Swinton	+0.7
29	16-13	MORGAN	MORGAN	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Bryn VanVleet	+1.3
30	17-13	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Julia Jozefov	set Fiona Cooper	+1.2
31	17-14	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+1.0
32	17-15	MORGAN	MORGAN	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Team	+1.8
33	18-15	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.6
34	18-16	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.4
35	18-17	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Addison Koppelman	blk Zayda Thomas	+2.4
36	19-17	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+2.1
37	19-18	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+1.9
38	20-18	MORGAN	CLE ST×3	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+2.2
39	21-18	CLE ST	CLE ST×3	Kill	Jazen Debina	set Fiona Cooper	+2.4
40	22-18	CLE ST	CLE ST×3	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson		+1.7
41	22-19	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+0.7
42	23-19	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.2
43	24-19	CLE ST	CLE ST	Attack err	Jada Williams	blk JeriLynn Koehler	+0.7
44	24-20	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
45	24-21	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	JeriLynn Koehler		+0.4
46	25-21	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Vayda Delventhal	+0.7
Set 3
1	0-1	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+0.7
2	0-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Tameary Wardlaw	+1.0
3	1-2	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Vayda Delventhal	+0.7
4	2-2	CLE ST	CLE ST	Ace	CLE ST server	aced Tameary Wardlaw	+0.9
5	2-3	CLE ST	MORGAN	Attack err	Jazen Debina		+0.7
6	3-3	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Fiona Cooper	+0.7
7	3-4	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Isabelle Brown	+0.7
8	4-4	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+0.7
9	5-4	CLE ST	CLE ST	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+0.9
10	5-5	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+0.7
11	6-5	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+0.7
12	6-6	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Jada Williams	+0.7
13	7-6	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+0.7
14	8-6	CLE ST	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Vayda Delventhal	+0.9
15	8-7	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+0.7
16	9-7	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+0.7
17	9-8	CLE ST	MORGAN	Attack err	Bryn VanVleet		+0.7
18	10-8	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	JeriLynn Koehler	set Fiona Cooper	+0.7
19	10-9	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+0.7
20	11-9	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Jazen Debina	set Fiona Cooper	+0.8
21	11-10	CLE ST	MORGAN	Attack err	Bryn VanVleet		+0.8
22	12-10	MORGAN	CLE ST	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+0.8
23	13-10	CLE ST	CLE ST	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.9
24	13-11	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+0.7
25	14-11	MORGAN	CLE ST×3	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Fiona Cooper	+0.7
26	15-11	CLE ST	CLE ST×3	Bad set	Isabelle Brown		+0.8
27	16-11	CLE ST	CLE ST×3	Ace	CLE ST server	aced Team	+0.6
28	16-12	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+0.4
29	17-12	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.5
30	18-12	CLE ST	CLE ST	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+0.4
31	18-13	CLE ST	MORGAN	Serve err	CLE ST server		+0.2
32	19-13	MORGAN	CLE ST	Kill	Jazen Debina	set Fiona Cooper	+0.3
33	20-13	CLE ST	CLE ST	Kill	Addison Koppelman	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
34	20-14	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown		+0.1
35	20-15	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Bryn VanVleet		+0.2
36	21-15	MORGAN	CLE ST	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.3
37	22-15	CLE ST	CLE ST	Kill	Jazen Debina	set Fiona Cooper	+0.2
38	22-16	CLE ST	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
39	23-16	MORGAN	CLE ST×3	Kill	Jazen Debina	set Fiona Cooper	+0.1
40	24-16	CLE ST	CLE ST×3	Kill	Bryn VanVleet	set Vayda Delventhal	+0.0
41	25-16	CLE ST	CLE ST×3	Serve err	CLE ST server		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Cleveland St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.