FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-12

#18TCUTCU

0:3

HomeSEC

#2TEXASTexas

Texas def. TCU 3–0

(30-28, 25-23, 25-23)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
TCU	28	23	23	0
TEXAS	30	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TEXAS above 50 · TCU below

Biggest swing: 9.9% to Texas — set 1, TCU 24-24 TEXAS. Kill by Torrey Stafford (set by Rella Binney). TEXAS win probability 55% → 64%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

TCU 32.3%67.7% TEXAS

TCU wins

3-0

6.3%

3-1

11.4%

3-2

14.5%

Texas wins

3-0

21.7%

3-1

26.0%

3-2

20.0%

TCU break %: 38.8% vs this opp
TEXAS break %: 42.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Torrey StaffordKill+9.9%
Kill by Torrey Stafford (set by Rella Binney)
Set 1 · TCU 24-24 TEXAS · TEXAS 55% → 64%
02
Jalyn GibsonKill+9.7%
Kill by Jalyn Gibson (set by Alice Volpe)
Set 1 · TCU 28-27 TEXAS · TCU 33% → 42%
03
Becca KelleyAttack error+9.1%
Attack error by Becca Kelley
Set 1 · TCU 26-27 TEXAS · TEXAS 64% → 74%
04
Jalyn GibsonAttack error+9.1%
Attack error by Jalyn Gibson
Set 1 · TCU 28-29 TEXAS · TEXAS 64% → 74%
05
Cari SpearsKill+8.4%
Kill by Cari Spears (set by Ramsey Gary)
Set 1 · TCU 28-30 TEXAS · TEXAS 74% → 82%
06
Becca KelleyKill+7.8%
Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer)
Set 1 · TCU 24-22 TEXAS · TCU 40% → 48%
07
Evan HendrixKill+7.8%
Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Mia Lee)
Set 1 · TCU 23-22 TEXAS · TCU 33% → 40%
08
Torrey StaffordKill+7.1%
Kill by Torrey Stafford (set by Rella Binney)
Set 2 · TCU 23-25 TEXAS · TEXAS 86% → 93%

Official NCAA box

Box score

TCUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Evan HendrixOH	3	12	8	42	.095	1	1	1	5	2	0	2	1	14
11Becca KelleyOH	3	10	6	35	.114	0	1	2	4	2	1	3	2.5	13.5
5Jalyn GibsonOH	3	8	2	16	.375	0	1	2	8	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
10Kinsley YoungMB	3	5	5	15	.000	0	0	1	1	0	1	6	4	9
17Rosemary ArcherS	3	1	1	4	.000	28	0	1	11	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Mia LeeMB	3	0	1	2	-.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	1.5
7Reese RobinsMB	3	4	2	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
0Alice VolpeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	16	0	0	0	0	0
9Lauren MurphyOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Reese WilburnS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
13Molly McCarthyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	25	121	.124	37	3	7	48	4	2	18	11	74

Texashome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Henley AndersonOH	3	8	8	34	.000	0	2	0	5	1	1	4	3	13
4Torrey StaffordOH	3	12	4	35	.229	1	0	3	5	1	0	0	0	12
55Nya BuntonMB	3	10	1	14	.643	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
23Cari SpearsOH	3	5	5	15	.000	0	2	2	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
3Rella BinneyS	3	0	0	1	.000	21	0	1	10	0	0	0	0	0
6Abby Vander WalOH	1	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
10Taylor HarveyMB	3	6	3	15	.200	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
14Addy GaidoOH	3	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
5Genevieve HarrisS	3	0	0	0	–	15	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	0
32Ramsey GaryL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
2Callie KruegerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	23	124	.169	41	4	7	45	3	1	10	6	80

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 TCU · TEXAS 4

Set 1

28-30

Longest run 3 TCUTEXAS 4

Set 2*

23-25

Longest run 3 TCUTEXAS 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 5 TCUTEXAS 3

Bars above the line = Texas leads, below = TCU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

TCU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	33%2/6
2	60%6/10	14%1/7
3	50%6/12	45%5/11
4	63%5/8	25%2/8
5	71%5/7	29%2/7
6	50%4/8	58%7/12
All	58%32/55	37%19/51

Texas

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	40%4/10
2	55%6/11	40%4/10
3	75%6/8	50%6/12
4	71%5/7	38%3/8
5	42%5/12	29%2/7
6	67%4/6	50%4/8
All	63%32/51	42%23/55

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

154 rallies

Rally log

#	TCU-TEXAS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TEXAS	TCU	Attack err	Abby Vander Wal	blk Jalyn Gibson, Kinsley Young	+1.7
2	2-0	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk Mia Lee, Evan Hendrix	+2.5
3	2-1	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.6
4	2-2	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Abby Vander Wal	set Rella Binney	+2.4
5	3-2	TEXAS	TCU	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.7
6	3-3	TCU	TEXAS×4	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+1.7
7	3-4	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+2.4
8	3-5	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Attack err	Evan Hendrix	blk Nya Bunton, Henley Anderson	+2.3
9	3-6	TEXAS	TEXAS×4	Kill	Torrey Stafford		+2.1
10	4-6	TEXAS	TCU	Attack err	Henley Anderson		+1.4
11	4-7	TCU	TEXAS×3	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+1.5
12	4-8	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+1.9
13	4-9	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Becca Kelley	blk Taylor Harvey, Henley Anderson	+1.6
14	5-9	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.9
15	6-9	TCU	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+1.7
16	6-10	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Abby Vander Wal	set Genevieve Harris	+1.3
17	6-11	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Becca Kelley	blk Cari Spears, Taylor Harvey	+1.6
18	7-11	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix		+0.9
19	8-11	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk Becca Kelley	+1.7
20	8-12	TCU	TEXAS	Serve err	TCU server		+1.4
21	9-12	TEXAS	TCU	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.2
22	10-12	TCU	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+2.2
23	10-13	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Genevieve Harris	+1.7
24	11-13	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+1.6
25	11-14	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+1.8
26	11-15	TEXAS	TEXAS	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Becca Kelley	+2.2
27	12-15	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+1.2
28	13-15	TCU	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Becca Kelley	+2.3
29	13-16	TCU	TEXAS	Serve err	TCU server		+1.9
30	14-16	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+1.7
31	15-16	TCU	TCU	Ace	TCU server	aced Callie Krueger	+3.1
32	15-17	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+2.3
33	16-17	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+2.2
34	17-17	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Torrey Stafford		+3.9
35	17-18	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Genevieve Harris	+2.8
36	18-18	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Rosemary Archer		+2.9
37	19-18	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Cari Spears		+4.8
38	19-19	TCU	TEXAS	Attack err	Kinsley Young		+3.1
39	20-19	TEXAS	TCU	Serve err	TEXAS server		+3.6
40	20-20	TCU	TEXAS	Attack err	Kinsley Young		+3.4
41	20-21	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rosemary Archer	+5.4
42	21-21	TEXAS	TCU	Attack err	Cari Spears	blk Kinsley Young, Evan Hendrix	+3.7
43	21-22	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Rella Binney	+4.2
44	22-22	TEXAS	TCU×3	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+4.1
45	23-22	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Mia Lee	+7.8
46	24-22	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+7.8
47	24-23	TCU	TEXAS	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+2.8
48	24-24	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+9.9
49	25-24	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+6.7
50	25-25	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+6.7
51	26-25	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Rosemary Archer	+6.7
52	26-26	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Genevieve Harris	+6.7
53	26-27	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+9.1
54	27-27	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+6.1
55	28-27	TCU	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Alice Volpe	+9.7
56	28-28	TCU	TEXAS×3	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Genevieve Harris	+6.7
57	28-29	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Jalyn Gibson		+9.1
58	28-30	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Cari Spears	set Ramsey Gary	+8.4
Set 2
1	1-0	TCU	TCU	Ace	TCU server	aced Torrey Stafford	+2.0
2	1-1	TCU	TEXAS	Serve err	TCU server		+1.3
3	2-1	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+1.4
4	3-1	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Addy Gaido		+2.2
5	3-2	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.4
6	4-2	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+1.5
7	4-3	TCU	TEXAS	Serve err	TCU server		+1.4
8	4-4	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Genevieve Harris	+2.1
9	5-4	TEXAS	TCU	Attack err	Henley Anderson	blk Mia Lee, Rosemary Archer	+1.5
10	5-5	TCU	TEXAS	Serve err	TCU server		+1.5
11	5-6	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+2.2
12	6-6	TEXAS	TCU	Attack err	Torrey Stafford	blk Becca Kelley, Mia Lee	+1.5
13	7-6	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Henley Anderson		+2.4
14	7-7	TCU	TEXAS×3	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Genevieve Harris	+1.5
15	7-8	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Ramsey Gary	+2.3
16	7-9	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Rosemary Archer	blk Henley Anderson	+2.2
17	8-9	TEXAS	TCU	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.4
18	9-9	TCU	TCU	Attack err	Henley Anderson	blk Becca Kelley, Kinsley Young	+2.4
19	9-10	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Genevieve Harris	+1.6
20	10-10	TEXAS	TCU×3	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+1.7
21	11-10	TCU	TCU×3	Attack err	Henley Anderson	blk Jalyn Gibson, Kinsley Young	+2.7
22	12-10	TCU	TCU×3	Attack err	Henley Anderson	blk Jalyn Gibson, Kinsley Young	+2.8
23	12-11	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.7
24	12-12	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+2.7
25	13-12	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Rosemary Archer	+2.0
26	13-13	TCU	TEXAS×3	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+1.9
27	13-14	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.8
28	13-15	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Evan Hendrix	+2.7
29	14-15	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+1.7
30	14-16	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+1.9
31	14-17	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Genevieve Harris	+2.5
32	15-17	TEXAS	TCU×3	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+1.4
33	16-17	TCU	TCU×3	Attack err	Taylor Harvey		+2.7
34	17-17	TCU	TCU×3	Attack err	Torrey Stafford		+3.3
35	17-18	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Genevieve Harris	+2.4
36	18-18	TEXAS	TCU×3	Serve err	TEXAS server		+2.4
37	19-18	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Evan Hendrix	+4.0
38	20-18	TCU	TCU×3	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Reese Wilburn	+4.2
39	20-19	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Cari Spears	set Genevieve Harris	+2.4
40	20-20	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Reese Robins		+4.3
41	21-20	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+3.4
42	21-21	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Genevieve Harris	+3.2
43	22-21	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+3.8
44	22-22	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+3.6
45	22-23	TEXAS	TEXAS	Ace	TEXAS server	aced Evan Hendrix	+6.2
46	23-23	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+4.0
47	23-24	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+5.2
48	23-25	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+7.1
Set 3
1	0-1	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Kinsley Young		+1.1
2	1-1	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Alice Volpe	+0.7
3	1-2	TCU	TEXAS×3	Serve err	TCU server		+0.7
4	1-3	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Jalyn Gibson	blk Nya Bunton, Henley Anderson	+1.0
5	1-4	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Torrey Stafford	+1.0
6	2-4	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Jalyn Gibson	set Rosemary Archer	+0.6
7	3-4	TCU	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+1.0
8	3-5	TCU	TEXAS	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+0.7
9	3-6	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Mia Lee		+1.0
10	4-6	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.6
11	4-7	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Addy Gaido	set Rella Binney	+0.7
12	4-8	TEXAS	TEXAS	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+0.9
13	5-8	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+0.5
14	5-9	TCU	TEXAS	Attack err	Reese Robins		+0.6
15	6-9	TEXAS	TCU×5	Attack err	Taylor Harvey		+0.6
16	7-9	TCU	TCU×5	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+1.0
17	8-9	TCU	TCU×5	Attack err	Torrey Stafford		+1.2
18	9-9	TCU	TCU×5	Attack err	Taylor Harvey		+1.3
19	10-9	TCU	TCU×5	Attack err	Cari Spears		+1.4
20	10-10	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Genevieve Harris	+0.9
21	11-10	TEXAS	TCU	Attack err	Henley Anderson		+1.0
22	11-11	TCU	TEXAS	Serve err	TCU server		+1.0
23	12-11	TEXAS	TCU	Attack err	Nya Bunton	blk Kinsley Young	+1.1
24	12-12	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Rella Binney	+1.0
25	13-12	TEXAS	TCU	Serve err	TEXAS server		+1.1
26	14-12	TCU	TCU	Ace	TCU server	aced Henley Anderson	+1.7
27	14-13	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.0
28	14-14	TEXAS	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Ramsey Gary	+1.6
29	15-14	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Becca Kelley	set Rosemary Archer	+1.2
30	15-15	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.2
31	16-15	TEXAS	TCU	Bad set	Genevieve Harris		+1.3
32	16-16	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Genevieve Harris	+1.2
33	17-16	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Kinsley Young	set Reese Wilburn	+1.4
34	17-17	TCU	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Becca Kelley		+1.3
35	17-18	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Kinsley Young		+2.0
36	17-19	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Henley Anderson	set Ramsey Gary	+1.8
37	18-19	TEXAS	TCU	Attack err	Henley Anderson	blk Kinsley Young, Becca Kelley	+1.1
38	19-19	TCU	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+2.1
39	19-20	TCU	TEXAS×3	Kill	Taylor Harvey	set Genevieve Harris	+1.6
40	19-21	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rosemary Archer	+2.1
41	19-22	TEXAS	TEXAS×3	Attack err	Kinsley Young	blk Nya Bunton, Henley Anderson	+1.7
42	20-22	TEXAS	TCU	Serve err	TEXAS server		+0.7
43	20-23	TCU	TEXAS	Attack err	Evan Hendrix		+1.2
44	21-23	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.6
45	21-24	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Nya Bunton	set Rella Binney	+1.2
46	22-24	TEXAS	TCU	Kill	Evan Hendrix	set Rosemary Archer	+0.4
47	23-24	TCU	TCU	Kill	Reese Robins	set Reese Wilburn	+1.6
48	23-25	TCU	TEXAS	Kill	Torrey Stafford	set Rella Binney	+2.6

Score shown after each rally, TCU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.