FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayMAC

0:3

HomeBIG-EAST

Xavier def. Bowling Green 3–0

(27-25, 25-22, 25-18)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BGSU	25	22	18	0
XAVIER	27	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

XAVIER above 50 · BGSU below

Biggest swing: 9.4% to Bowling Green — set 1, BGSU 24-24 XAVIER. Attack error by Margo Kemp. XAVIER win probability 70% → 61%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BGSU 39.2%60.8% XAVIER

Bowling Green wins

3-0

8.5%

3-1

14.3%

3-2

16.5%

Xavier wins

3-0

17.6%

3-1

23.2%

3-2

19.9%

BGSU break %: 41.4% vs this opp
XAVIER break %: 43.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Margo KempAttack error+9.4%
Attack error by Margo Kemp
Set 1 · BGSU 24-24 XAVIER · BGSU 30% → 39%
02
Anastasija BozicAttack error+9.1%
Anastasija Bozic stuffed by Macy Hatkevich & McKinley Boehm
Set 1 · BGSU 25-27 XAVIER · XAVIER 68% → 77%
03
Ava TildenKill+7.0%
Kill by Ava Tilden (set by Macy Hatkevich)
Set 1 · BGSU 24-25 XAVIER · XAVIER 61% → 68%
04
Anastasija BozicKill+7.0%
Kill by Anastasija Bozic (set by Amanda Otten)
Set 1 · BGSU 25-25 XAVIER · BGSU 32% → 39%
05
BGSU serverService error+7.0%
Bowling Green service error
Set 1 · BGSU 25-26 XAVIER · XAVIER 61% → 68%
06
Macy HatkevichKill+6.4%
Kill by Macy Hatkevich (set by Amanda Otten)
Set 1 · BGSU 21-22 XAVIER · XAVIER 59% → 65%
07
Margo KempKill+6.0%
Kill by Margo Kemp (set by Macy Hatkevich)
Set 1 · BGSU 21-23 XAVIER · XAVIER 65% → 71%
08
Charlotte MoriartyAttack error+5.8%
Attack error by Charlotte Moriarty
Set 1 · BGSU 21-20 XAVIER · BGSU 39% → 45%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Bowling Greenaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
12Karli MolnauOH	3	9	1	35	.229	0	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	9.5
18Helen WilfordMB	3	4	4	15	.000	0	0	0	0	1	4	2	6
23Anastasija BozicOH	3	5	6	23	-.043	1	0	0	5	1	1	0.5	5.5
6Cecily WaynarOPP	3	3	0	7	.429	0	2	2	1	0	1	0.5	5.5
11Amanda OttenS	3	2	1	4	.250	22	1	0	10	0	1	0.5	3.5
9Avery HobsonOH	2	6	3	27	.111	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	6
1Sydnie HernandezDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	13	1	0	0	0
4Ava BuddelmeyerOH	2	4	0	7	.571	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
21Fetia RoviraMB	2	0	1	6	-.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2Molly BeattyS	2	0	1	1	-1.000	6	0	2	2	0	0	0	0
19Alivia BrownDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
3Avery AndersDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
17Katherine EignerDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
15Marin DunawayOH	1	2	2	7	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
8Vivian JonesOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
20Edyta WaclawczykOH	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		36	21	135	.111	32	3	8	43	7	10	5	65

Xavierhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Margo KempMB	3	9	2	18	.389	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	11.5
12McKinley BoehmMB	3	8	1	11	.636	1	0	1	1	0	2	2	3	11
4Charlotte MoriartyOH	3	6	9	33	-.091	0	1	0	19	0	0	2	1	8
9Quinci ThomasOH	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	7
8Macy HatkevichS	3	3	0	5	.600	21	0	1	9	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
11Kasey QuenichetL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	6	0	0	0	0	2
14Catherine FlahartyOH	3	5	4	16	.063	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	6
15Ava TildenOH	3	4	3	13	.077	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
5Jenna BarhorstS	3	0	0	0	–	13	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
2Kelsey NiesenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	0	21	2	0	0	0	2
7Elouise CzajkowskiL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
17Gabrielle SemonaMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	21	108	.185	38	7	4	63	3	2	14	9	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 BGSU · XAVIER 11

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 3 BGSUXAVIER 5

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 6 BGSUXAVIER 5

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 2 BGSUXAVIER 11

Bars above the line = Xavier leads, below = Bowling Green leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Bowling Green

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	54%7/13
2	54%7/13	20%2/10
3	41%7/17	42%5/12
4	38%6/16	22%2/9
5	46%6/13	45%5/11
6	83%5/6	45%5/11
All	51%39/76	39%26/66

Xavier

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	30%3/10
2	62%8/13	33%4/12
3	70%7/10	63%12/19
4	60%6/10	33%3/9
5	55%6/11	67%12/18
6	63%5/8	38%3/8
All	61%40/66	49%37/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

142 rallies

Rally log

#	BGSU-XAVIER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Amanda Otten	blk Charlotte Moriarty, Margo Kemp	+2.4
2	1-1	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+1.8
3	1-2	BGSU	XAVIER	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Charlotte Moriarty, Margo Kemp	+1.8
4	2-2	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.8
5	3-2	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Ava Tilden		+2.6
6	3-3	BGSU	XAVIER	Serve err	BGSU server		+1.8
7	4-3	XAVIER	BGSU	Attack err	Ava Tilden	blk Karli Molnau, Helen Wilford	+1.9
8	4-4	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.9
9	4-5	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Fetia Rovira		+2.6
10	5-5	XAVIER	BGSU×3	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+1.9
11	6-5	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	McKinley Boehm		+2.7
12	7-5	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+2.8
13	7-6	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.0
14	7-7	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.8
15	8-7	XAVIER	BGSU	Serve err	XAVIER server		+2.2
16	9-7	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson		+3.0
17	9-8	BGSU	XAVIER	Serve err	BGSU server		+2.1
18	9-9	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.9
19	10-9	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Molly Beatty	+2.3
20	11-9	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+3.1
21	11-10	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.2
22	12-10	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Sydnie Hernandez	+2.4
23	12-11	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.2
24	12-12	XAVIER	XAVIER	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Sydnie Hernandez	+3.3
25	13-12	XAVIER	BGSU	Attack err	Quinci Thomas		+2.6
26	13-13	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+2.5
27	14-13	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+2.7
28	15-13	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Molly Beatty	+3.7
29	15-14	BGSU	XAVIER	Serve err	BGSU server		+2.5
30	16-14	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+2.9
31	17-14	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Molly Beatty	+3.6
32	17-15	BGSU	XAVIER×5	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Jenna Barhorst	+2.2
33	17-16	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Helen Wilford	+3.6
34	17-17	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Jenna Barhorst	+4.1
35	17-18	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Attack err	Helen Wilford	blk McKinley Boehm	+4.3
36	17-19	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Attack err	Molly Beatty		+4.1
37	18-19	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+2.8
38	19-19	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Anastasija Bozic	+4.6
39	19-20	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Jenna Barhorst	+3.7
40	20-20	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Amanda Otten	+3.7
41	21-20	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+5.8
42	21-21	BGSU	XAVIER×3	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Jenna Barhorst	+4.1
43	21-22	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Kill	Macy Hatkevich	set Amanda Otten	+6.4
44	21-23	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+6.0
45	22-23	XAVIER	BGSU	Bad set	Macy Hatkevich		+3.2
46	22-24	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+5.1
47	23-24	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+2.9
48	24-24	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Margo Kemp		+9.4
49	24-25	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Macy Hatkevich	+7.0
50	25-25	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+7.0
51	25-26	BGSU	XAVIER	Serve err	BGSU server		+7.0
52	25-27	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Macy Hatkevich, McKinley Boehm	+9.1
Set 2
1	0-1	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Macy Hatkevich		+1.6
2	1-1	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.6
3	1-2	BGSU	XAVIER	Serve err	BGSU server		+1.6
4	2-2	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.6
5	2-3	BGSU	XAVIER	Serve err	BGSU server		+1.6
6	3-3	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Sydnie Hernandez	+1.7
7	3-4	BGSU	XAVIER×4	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.7
8	3-5	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Jenna Barhorst	+2.2
9	3-6	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+2.1
10	3-7	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set McKinley Boehm	+1.9
11	4-7	XAVIER	BGSU	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+1.3
12	4-8	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Jenna Barhorst	+1.4
13	5-8	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Vivian Jones	set Molly Beatty	+1.3
14	5-9	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Jenna Barhorst	+1.4
15	6-9	XAVIER	BGSU	Serve err	XAVIER server		+1.3
16	6-10	BGSU	XAVIER	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Quinci Thomas, Margo Kemp	+1.5
17	7-10	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.3
18	8-10	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Sydnie Hernandez	+2.1
19	8-11	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.7
20	8-12	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Catherine Flaharty, Margo Kemp	+2.1
21	9-12	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.3
22	10-12	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Catherine Flaharty		+2.2
23	10-13	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.8
24	11-13	XAVIER	BGSU	Attack err	Catherine Flaharty	blk Helen Wilford, Anastasija Bozic	+1.7
25	11-14	BGSU	XAVIER×5	Serve err	BGSU server		+1.9
26	11-15	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Anastasija Bozic	+2.2
27	11-16	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Attack err	Vivian Jones		+1.8
28	11-17	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Team	+1.3
29	11-18	XAVIER	XAVIER×5	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+0.9
30	12-18	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+0.4
31	13-18	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty	blk Helen Wilford, Amanda Otten	+0.8
32	13-19	BGSU	XAVIER×3	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.9
33	13-20	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Attack err	Helen Wilford		+0.7
34	13-21	XAVIER	XAVIER×3	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk McKinley Boehm, Quinci Thomas	+0.4
35	14-21	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Ava Buddelmeyer	set Amanda Otten	+0.1
36	15-21	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+0.3
37	15-22	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.4
38	16-22	XAVIER	BGSU×6	Kill	Ava Buddelmeyer		+0.2
39	17-22	BGSU	BGSU×6	Attack err	Ava Tilden		+0.4
40	18-22	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Ava Buddelmeyer	set Amanda Otten	+0.8
41	19-22	BGSU	BGSU×6	Ace	BGSU server	aced Kelsey Niesen	+1.4
42	20-22	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+2.4
43	21-22	BGSU	BGSU×6	Kill	Ava Buddelmeyer	set Amanda Otten	+3.8
44	21-23	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+4.0
45	22-23	XAVIER	BGSU	Serve err	XAVIER server		+2.9
46	22-24	BGSU	XAVIER	Serve err	BGSU server		+4.6
47	22-25	XAVIER	XAVIER	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Macy Hatkevich	+3.4
Set 3
1	1-0	XAVIER	BGSU	Attack err	Margo Kemp		+1.0
2	1-1	BGSU	XAVIER×4	Kill	Macy Hatkevich		+0.9
3	1-2	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Avery Anders	+1.3
4	1-3	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+1.2
5	1-4	XAVIER	XAVIER×4	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Catherine Flaharty	+1.2
6	2-4	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.8
7	3-4	BGSU	BGSU	Ace	BGSU server	aced Team	+1.2
8	3-5	BGSU	XAVIER×11	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic		+1.0
9	3-6	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Attack err	Karli Molnau		+1.2
10	3-7	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Kelsey Niesen	+1.1
11	3-8	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Attack err	Helen Wilford	blk McKinley Boehm	+1.0
12	3-9	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Kill	Catherine Flaharty	set Kasey Quenichet	+0.8
13	3-10	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.6
14	3-11	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.5
15	3-12	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Team	+0.4
16	3-13	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Kelsey Niesen	+0.2
17	3-14	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Ace	XAVIER server	aced Team	+0.1
18	3-15	XAVIER	XAVIER×11	Attack err	Marin Dunaway		+0.1
19	4-15	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
20	5-15	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Catherine Flaharty	blk Marin Dunaway, Helen Wilford	+0.1
21	5-16	BGSU	XAVIER	Attack err	Marin Dunaway		+0.1
22	5-17	XAVIER	XAVIER	Attack err	Helen Wilford		+0.1
23	6-17	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Marin Dunaway	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
24	7-17	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+0.1
25	7-18	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	McKinley Boehm	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.1
26	8-18	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Helen Wilford	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
27	9-18	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+0.1
28	9-19	BGSU	XAVIER	Attack err	Edyta Waclawczyk		+0.1
29	10-19	XAVIER	BGSU	Serve err	XAVIER server		+0.0
30	10-20	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.1
31	11-20	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
32	12-20	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+0.1
33	12-21	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.1
34	13-21	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Marin Dunaway	set Amanda Otten	+0.0
35	14-21	BGSU	BGSU	Ace	BGSU server	aced Kelsey Niesen	+0.1
36	14-22	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Margo Kemp	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.1
37	15-22	XAVIER	BGSU	Attack err	Catherine Flaharty		+0.0
38	15-23	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Charlotte Moriarty	set Macy Hatkevich	+0.1
39	16-23	XAVIER	BGSU	Attack err	Charlotte Moriarty		+0.0
40	16-24	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Quinci Thomas	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.0
41	17-24	XAVIER	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten		+0.0
42	18-24	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Quinci Thomas	blk Ava Buddelmeyer, Cecily Waynar	+0.0
43	18-25	BGSU	XAVIER	Kill	Ava Tilden	set Jenna Barhorst	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Bowling Green first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.