Final · 4 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayBIG-WEST

1:3

HomeACC

California def. UC San Diego 3–1

(25-16, 18-25, 25-22, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
UCSD	16	25	22	17	1
CAL	25	18	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CAL above 50 · UCSD below

Biggest swing: 3.8% to California — set 3, UCSD 17-19 CAL. California ace on Team. CAL win probability 82% → 86%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UCSD 12.0%88.0% CAL

UC San Diego wins

3-0

1.7%

3-1

3.7%

3-2

6.6%

California wins

3-0

41.2%

3-1

31.6%

3-2

15.2%

UCSD break %: 36.4% vs this opp
CAL break %: 45.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CAL serverAce+3.8%
California ace on Team
Set 3 · UCSD 17-19 CAL · CAL 82% → 86%
02
Ireland McNeesKill+3.6%
Kill by Ireland McNees (set by Brynne McGhie)
Set 3 · UCSD 15-15 CAL · UCSD 17% → 20%
03
Paulina BaillieKill+3.0%
Kill by Paulina Baillie (set by Ireland McNees)
Set 3 · UCSD 11-11 CAL · UCSD 16% → 19%
04
Maija NepszyBad set+2.9%
Bad set by Maija Nepszy
Set 3 · UCSD 17-20 CAL · CAL 86% → 89%
05
Madison JohnsonKill+2.9%
Kill by Madison Johnson (set by Ireland McNees)
Set 3 · UCSD 17-17 CAL · UCSD 18% → 21%
06
Sawyer ThomsenKill+2.9%
Kill by Sawyer Thomsen (set by Anna Flores)
Set 3 · UCSD 17-18 CAL · CAL 79% → 82%
07
CAL serverService error+2.7%
California service error
Set 3 · UCSD 16-16 CAL · UCSD 18% → 20%
08
UCSD serverAce+2.7%
UC San Diego ace on Portia Sherman
Set 3 · UCSD 13-14 CAL · UCSD 14% → 17%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UC San Diegoaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Molly McCluskeyOH	4	13	6	34	.206	0	1	1	13	0	0	2	1	15
2Ireland McNeesS	4	11	2	43	.209	4	0	4	5	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
23Lucia BarrosoMB	4	6	0	8	.750	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	8
4Brynne McGhieS	4	2	0	4	.500	29	0	0	7	0	1	0	1	3
11Katelyn HernandezOH	3	6	3	14	.214	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6
16Yasemin ElmasMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	4
9Paulina BaillieDS	4	1	0	1	1.000	3	2	1	12	3	0	0	0	3
5Dillyn GriffinL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	8	2	0	0	0	0
7Madison JohnsonMB	3	8	2	15	.400	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8
1Maija NepszyS	3	0	0	0	–	10	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
21Gia Rivera	2	1	4	7	-.429	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
3Kaliya NdiayeMB	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Jaedyn HoustonDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Kylie ParkerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	17	136	.250	50	4	8	52	7	2	5	4.5	80

Californiahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Abby ZimmermanOH	4	24	3	44	.477	2	5	2	10	2	3	1.5	30.5
21Portia ShermanOH	4	9	2	26	.269	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	9
18Ashley LiOH	4	8	5	23	.130	0	0	4	2	0	1	0.5	8.5
15Sawyer ThomsenMB	4	5	0	20	.250	0	2	1	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
24Anna FloresS	4	4	1	10	.300	43	0	2	13	0	2	1	5
3Ashleigh WoodruffMB	3	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Elise LauL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
7Siena MacCuddenL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
2Sophia JohnsonL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
5Cari BohmMB	2	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
4Francesca PopescuDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		55	13	136	.309	52	7	11	49	4	12	6	93

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 UCSD · CAL 5

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 UCSDCAL 5

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 4 UCSDCAL 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 UCSDCAL 4

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 2 UCSDCAL 4

Bars above the line = California leads, below = UC San Diego leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UC San Diego

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	83%10/12	31%4/13
2	59%10/17	38%6/16
3	44%8/18	41%7/17
4	53%8/15	38%5/13
5	67%8/12	20%2/10
6	39%7/18	42%5/12
All	55%51/92	36%29/81

California

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%10/16	38%5/13
2	77%10/13	38%6/16
3	56%9/16	47%8/17
4	62%8/13	50%8/16
5	67%8/12	33%4/12
6	64%7/11	56%10/18
All	64%52/81	45%41/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

173 rallies

Rally log

#	UCSD-CAL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+1.0
2	1-1	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.9
3	1-2	CAL	CAL	Attack err	Katelyn Hernandez		+1.2
4	2-2	CAL	UCSD	Attack err	Ashleigh Woodruff	blk Lucia Barroso	+0.9
5	2-3	UCSD	CAL×3	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Sophia Johnson	+0.8
6	2-4	CAL	CAL×3	Bad set	Katelyn Hernandez		+1.1
7	2-5	CAL	CAL×3	Attack err	Katelyn Hernandez		+1.0
8	3-5	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Katelyn Hernandez	set Brynne McGhie	+0.7
9	3-6	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+0.7
10	4-6	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Lucia Barroso	set Brynne McGhie	+0.7
11	4-7	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Anna Flores	+0.7
12	5-7	CAL	UCSD×3	Kill	Yasemin Elmas	set Brynne McGhie	+0.7
13	6-7	UCSD	UCSD×3	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Dillyn Griffin	+1.2
14	7-7	UCSD	UCSD×3	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Brynne McGhie	+1.5
15	7-8	UCSD	CAL×3	Kill	Anna Flores	set Sophia Johnson	+1.0
16	7-9	CAL	CAL×3	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Anna Flores	+1.3
17	7-10	CAL	CAL×3	Bad set	Brynne McGhie		+1.1
18	8-10	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+0.8
19	8-11	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+0.8
20	9-11	CAL	UCSD	Attack err	Ashley Li	blk Molly McCluskey, Yasemin Elmas	+0.8
21	9-12	UCSD	CAL	Serve err	UCSD server		+0.8
22	9-13	CAL	CAL	Attack err	Molly McCluskey		+1.0
23	10-13	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Lucia Barroso	set Brynne McGhie	+0.6
24	10-14	UCSD	CAL×5	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Anna Flores	+0.7
25	10-15	CAL	CAL×5	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen		+0.7
26	10-16	CAL	CAL×5	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+0.5
27	10-17	CAL	CAL×5	Attack err	Katelyn Hernandez	blk Abby Zimmerman, Sawyer Thomsen	+0.3
28	10-18	CAL	CAL×5	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Elise Lau	+0.2
29	11-18	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Katelyn Hernandez	set Maija Nepszy	+0.1
30	11-19	UCSD	CAL×4	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.1
31	11-20	CAL	CAL×4	Kill	Anna Flores	set Maija Nepszy	+0.1
32	11-21	CAL	CAL×4	Ace	CAL server	aced Paulina Baillie	+0.0
33	11-22	CAL	CAL×4	Attack err	Madison Johnson		+0.0
34	12-22	CAL	UCSD	Attack err	Portia Sherman		+0.0
35	13-22	UCSD	UCSD	Attack err	Portia Sherman		+0.0
36	13-23	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.0
37	14-23	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Madison Johnson	set Maija Nepszy	+0.0
38	15-23	UCSD	UCSD	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Brynne McGhie	+0.0
39	15-24	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.0
40	16-24	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Yasemin Elmas	set Brynne McGhie	+0.0
41	16-25	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Anna Flores	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UCSD	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Brynne McGhie	+1.0
2	1-1	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.6
3	2-1	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+0.7
4	3-1	UCSD	UCSD	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Paulina Baillie	+1.1
5	3-2	UCSD	CAL	Serve err	UCSD server		+0.7
6	3-3	CAL	CAL	Bad set	Brynne McGhie		+1.0
7	4-3	CAL	UCSD×4	Kill	Katelyn Hernandez	set Brynne McGhie	+0.8
8	5-3	UCSD	UCSD×4	Ace	UCSD server	aced Portia Sherman	+1.2
9	6-3	UCSD	UCSD×4	Kill	Katelyn Hernandez	set Brynne McGhie	+1.3
10	7-3	UCSD	UCSD×4	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Paulina Baillie	+1.3
11	7-4	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.8
12	8-4	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Katelyn Hernandez	set Brynne McGhie	+1.0
13	8-5	UCSD	CAL×3	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.8
14	8-6	CAL	CAL×3	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.2
15	8-7	CAL	CAL×3	Kill	Anna Flores	set Abby Zimmerman	+1.2
16	9-7	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Lucia Barroso	set Maija Nepszy	+1.0
17	10-7	UCSD	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Madison Johnson	+1.4
18	10-8	UCSD	CAL×3	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+0.8
19	10-9	CAL	CAL×3	Attack err	Ireland McNees		+1.3
20	10-10	CAL	CAL×3	Ace	CAL server	aced Dillyn Griffin	+1.3
21	11-10	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Madison Johnson	set Maija Nepszy	+1.0
22	12-10	UCSD	UCSD	Ace	UCSD server	aced Abby Zimmerman	+1.5
23	12-11	UCSD	CAL	Serve err	UCSD server		+0.9
24	12-12	CAL	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li		+1.4
25	13-12	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Maija Nepszy	+1.1
26	13-13	UCSD	CAL	Attack err	Molly McCluskey		+1.0
27	14-13	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Yasemin Elmas	set Brynne McGhie	+1.1
28	15-13	UCSD	UCSD	Attack err	Anna Flores		+1.8
29	15-14	UCSD	CAL	Serve err	UCSD server		+1.0
30	16-14	CAL	UCSD×3	Serve err	CAL server		+1.3
31	17-14	UCSD	UCSD×3	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Brynne McGhie	+1.9
32	18-14	UCSD	UCSD×3	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Paulina Baillie	+1.8
33	18-15	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.9
34	19-15	CAL	UCSD×4	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Brynne McGhie	+1.3
35	20-15	UCSD	UCSD×4	Attack err	Abby Zimmerman		+1.5
36	21-15	UCSD	UCSD×4	Kill	Brynne McGhie	set Ireland McNees	+1.0
37	22-15	UCSD	UCSD×4	Ace	UCSD server	aced Abby Zimmerman	+0.6
38	22-16	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Sophia Johnson	+0.1
39	23-16	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Madison Johnson	set Maija Nepszy	+0.3
40	23-17	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Portia Sherman	+0.1
41	23-18	CAL	CAL	Kill	Ashleigh Woodruff	set Anna Flores	+0.2
42	24-18	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Madison Johnson	set Maija Nepszy	+0.4
43	25-18	UCSD	UCSD	Attack err	Ashley Li		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	CAL	UCSD	Attack err	Ashley Li		+1.7
2	1-1	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Anna Flores	+1.5
3	1-2	CAL	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+2.1
4	2-2	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+1.6
5	2-3	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.5
6	3-3	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Katelyn Hernandez	set Brynne McGhie	+1.6
7	3-4	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.5
8	3-5	CAL	CAL	Ace	CAL server	aced Paulina Baillie	+2.0
9	4-5	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+1.4
10	4-6	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.4
11	4-7	CAL	CAL	Attack err	Ireland McNees	blk Sawyer Thomsen, Anna Flores	+1.8
12	5-7	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Madison Johnson	set Maija Nepszy	+1.2
13	5-8	UCSD	CAL×3	Kill	Anna Flores	set Abby Zimmerman	+1.2
14	5-9	CAL	CAL×3	Attack err	Madison Johnson		+1.5
15	5-10	CAL	CAL×3	Bad set	Madison Johnson		+1.2
16	6-10	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Madison Johnson	set Maija Nepszy	+0.7
17	7-10	UCSD	UCSD	Attack err	Ashley Li	blk Molly McCluskey, Yasemin Elmas, Ireland McNees	+1.4
18	7-11	UCSD	CAL	Attack err	Molly McCluskey	blk Ashleigh Woodruff, Ashley Li	+1.1
19	8-11	CAL	UCSD×4	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Brynne McGhie	+1.0
20	9-11	UCSD	UCSD×4	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Brynne McGhie	+1.9
21	10-11	UCSD	UCSD×4	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Ireland McNees	+2.4
22	11-11	UCSD	UCSD×4	Kill	Paulina Baillie	set Ireland McNees	+3.0
23	11-12	UCSD	CAL×3	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+2.0
24	11-13	CAL	CAL×3	Attack err	Gia Rivera	blk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman	+2.7
25	11-14	CAL	CAL×3	Attack err	Molly McCluskey		+2.3
26	12-14	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Gia Rivera	set Brynne McGhie	+1.5
27	13-14	UCSD	UCSD	Ace	UCSD server	aced Portia Sherman	+2.7
28	13-15	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Cari Bohm	set Anna Flores	+2.0
29	14-15	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Lucia Barroso	set Brynne McGhie	+2.0
30	15-15	UCSD	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Brynne McGhie	+3.6
31	15-16	UCSD	CAL	Serve err	UCSD server		+2.5
32	16-16	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+2.7
33	16-17	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Anna Flores	+2.7
34	17-17	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Madison Johnson	set Ireland McNees	+2.9
35	17-18	UCSD	CAL×4	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+2.9
36	17-19	CAL	CAL×4	Ace	CAL server	aced Team	+3.8
37	17-20	CAL	CAL×4	Bad set	Maija Nepszy		+2.9
38	17-21	CAL	CAL×4	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+2.0
39	18-21	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Madison Johnson	set Maija Nepszy	+0.9
40	19-21	UCSD	UCSD	Kill	Brynne McGhie	set Dillyn Griffin	+2.2
41	19-22	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Portia Sherman	set Anna Flores	+2.1
42	19-23	CAL	CAL	Kill	Cari Bohm	set Anna Flores	+1.8
43	20-23	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Brynne McGhie	+0.6
44	21-23	UCSD	UCSD	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Brynne McGhie	+1.8
45	21-24	UCSD	CAL	Serve err	UCSD server		+2.2
46	22-24	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+0.9
47	22-25	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Cari Bohm	set Anna Flores	+1.9
Set 4
1	0-1	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+1.0
2	1-1	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Brynne McGhie	+1.2
3	1-2	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Cari Bohm	set Anna Flores	+1.1
4	2-2	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Dillyn Griffin	+1.2
5	3-2	UCSD	UCSD	Attack err	Abby Zimmerman		+1.9
6	3-3	UCSD	CAL	Attack err	Molly McCluskey		+1.2
7	3-4	CAL	CAL	Ace	CAL server	aced Dillyn Griffin	+1.7
8	4-4	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Brynne McGhie	+1.3
9	4-5	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.2
10	4-6	CAL	CAL	Attack err	Gia Rivera		+1.6
11	5-6	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+1.1
12	5-7	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.1
13	6-7	CAL	UCSD	Attack err	Cari Bohm		+1.2
14	6-8	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.1
15	6-9	CAL	CAL	Attack err	Molly McCluskey	blk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman	+1.4
16	7-9	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+1.0
17	8-9	UCSD	UCSD	Attack err	Ashley Li		+1.7
18	8-10	UCSD	CAL	Serve err	UCSD server		+1.2
19	8-11	CAL	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.5
20	9-11	CAL	UCSD	Serve err	CAL server		+1.0
21	9-12	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+1.1
22	10-12	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Brynne McGhie	+1.0
23	10-13	UCSD	CAL×4	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Sophia Johnson	+1.1
24	10-14	CAL	CAL×4	Ace	CAL server	aced Lucia Barroso	+1.3
25	10-15	CAL	CAL×4	Ace	CAL server	aced Paulina Baillie	+1.0
26	10-16	CAL	CAL×4	Kill	Sawyer Thomsen	set Anna Flores	+0.7
27	11-16	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Lucia Barroso	set Anna Flores	+0.3
28	12-16	UCSD	UCSD	Attack err	Abby Zimmerman		+0.7
29	12-17	UCSD	CAL	Serve err	UCSD server		+0.6
30	13-17	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Lucia Barroso	set Brynne McGhie	+0.5
31	13-18	UCSD	CAL	Attack err	Gia Rivera	blk Sawyer Thomsen, Anna Flores	+0.6
32	14-18	CAL	UCSD	Bad set	Anna Flores		+0.5
33	14-19	UCSD	CAL×3	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+0.6
34	14-20	CAL	CAL×3	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.6
35	14-21	CAL	CAL×3	Attack err	Gia Rivera		+0.3
36	15-21	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Brynne McGhie	+0.1
37	15-22	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Ashley Li	set Anna Flores	+0.1
38	16-22	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Molly McCluskey	set Brynne McGhie	+0.1
39	16-23	UCSD	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.1
40	16-24	CAL	CAL	Kill	Abby Zimmerman	set Anna Flores	+0.0
41	17-24	CAL	UCSD	Kill	Ireland McNees	set Brynne McGhie	+0.0
42	17-25	UCSD	CAL	Bad set	Dillyn Griffin		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UC San Diego first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.