FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayMVC

3:0

HomeNEC

Illinois St. def. FDU 3–0

(25-18, 25-14, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ILL ST	25	25	25	3
FDU	18	14	21	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

FDU above 50 · ILL ST below

Biggest swing: 0.9% to FDU — set 1, ILL ST 17-15 FDU. Kill by Mila Samardzija (set by Nora Marginean). FDU win probability 5% → 6%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ILL ST 93.0%7.0% FDU

Illinois St. wins

3-0

50.3%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

11.8%

FDU wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.0%

3-2

4.1%

ILL ST break %: 49.1% vs this opp
FDU break %: 37.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mila SamardzijaKill+0.9%
Kill by Mila Samardzija (set by Nora Marginean)
Set 1 · ILL ST 17-15 FDU · FDU 5% → 6%
02
Jillian FerrillAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Jillian Ferrill
Set 1 · ILL ST 2-2 FDU · FDU 6% → 7%
03
Jillian FerrillAttack error+0.8%
Attack error by Jillian Ferrill
Set 1 · ILL ST 15-13 FDU · FDU 5% → 6%
04
Emilija ArsicKill+0.8%
Kill by Emilija Arsic (set by Audrey Clark)
Set 1 · ILL ST 19-16 FDU · ILL ST 94% → 95%
05
Ava DeGuzmanKill+0.8%
Kill by Ava DeGuzman (set by Nora Marginean)
Set 1 · ILL ST 13-11 FDU · FDU 5% → 6%
06
Logan GrevengoedKill+0.7%
Kill by Logan Grevengoed (set by Audrey Clark)
Set 1 · ILL ST 18-15 FDU · ILL ST 94% → 95%
07
Abby ReckKill+0.7%
Kill by Abby Reck (set by Audrey Clark)
Set 1 · ILL ST 20-16 FDU · ILL ST 95% → 96%
08
Mila SamardzijaKill+0.7%
Kill by Mila Samardzija (set by Ava DeGuzman)
Set 1 · ILL ST 18-16 FDU · FDU 5% → 6%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Illinois St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Ruth ZieglerOPP	3	12	4	23	.348	0	3	4	1	2	0	2	17
2Emilija ArsicOH	3	8	4	21	.190	1	0	1	5	1	0	1	9
6Logan GrevengoedMB	3	4	0	8	.500	1	0	0	2	2	1	2.5	6.5
18Ayla KlingenbergMB	3	5	1	12	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
9Ella CraggsS	3	1	0	1	1.000	21	2	2	6	0	0	0	3
14Jillian FerrillOH	1	1	3	6	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
16Abby ReckOH	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	6
21Audrey ClarkS	3	0	0	0	–	14	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
17Peyton TurnerDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
5Samantha BunchS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
11Jillian GregoryOH	2	8	1	11	.636	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	9
10Oliwia CaputaOH	2	0	0	1	.000	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	1
12Ellie BurrL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	15	93	.301	40	7	9	39	7	2	8	75

FDUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
4Nina JasieckaOH	3	7	3	10	.400	0	0	2	0	0	0	7
16Angela MarchettoMB	3	2	2	7	.000	0	0	1	0	4	4	6
14Mila SamardzijaOH	3	5	5	27	.000	2	0	5	0	0	0	5
12Alessia ZampieriMB	3	2	0	7	.286	1	0	1	0	3	3	5
10Nora MargineanS	3	2	0	2	1.000	12	2	4	0	0	0	2
7Ava DeGuzmanOH	1	1	0	9	.111	1	1	3	1	0	0	1
17Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez SanchezOH	3	7	1	14	.429	1	1	2	1	0	0	7
1Isabella ScarfoneS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	9	1	3	0	0	0	0
5Kayla GreenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	6	1	0	0	0
23Madeline JoyceL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Ashlyn GualtieriOH	1	1	4	7	-.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Agnes ShakirovaOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		28	17	86	.128	26	6	28	7	7	7	53

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 ILL ST · FDU 2

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 ILL STFDU 2

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 5 ILL STFDU 2

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 ILL STFDU 2

Bars above the line = FDU leads, below = Illinois St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Illinois St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	38%3/8
2	64%7/11	56%9/16
3	78%7/9	30%3/10
4	75%6/8	54%7/13
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	63%5/8	69%11/16
All	69%38/55	51%37/73

FDU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	25%2/8
2	54%7/13	42%5/12
3	55%6/11	22%2/9
4	55%6/11	25%2/8
5	35%6/17	14%1/7
6	57%4/7	45%5/11
All	49%36/73	31%17/55

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	ILL ST-FDU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
2	2-0	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Ferrill	set Ella Craggs	+0.7
3	2-1	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.5
4	2-2	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+0.8
5	3-2	FDU	ILL ST	Serve err	FDU server		+0.6
6	4-2	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Angela Marchetto	blk Abby Reck	+0.7
7	4-3	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.6
8	5-3	FDU	ILL ST×4	Kill	Abby Reck	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
9	6-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Nina Jasiecka		+0.6
10	7-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Ava DeGuzman	+0.5
11	8-3	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Kayla Green	+0.4
12	8-4	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.3
13	8-5	FDU	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri		+0.5
14	9-5	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Audrey Clark	+0.4
15	9-6	ILL ST	FDU	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler		+0.4
16	9-7	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler	blk Alessia Zampieri	+0.7
17	10-7	FDU	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Audrey Clark	+0.5
18	11-7	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ayla Klingenberg	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
19	12-7	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.4
20	12-8	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.3
21	12-9	FDU	FDU	Bad set	Ella Craggs		+0.5
22	13-9	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Ella Craggs	+0.5
23	13-10	ILL ST	FDU	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+0.4
24	13-11	FDU	FDU	Kill	Ava DeGuzman	set Nora Marginean	+0.8
25	14-11	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.6
26	15-11	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Nina Jasiecka		+0.6
27	15-12	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.5
28	15-13	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Jillian Ferrill		+0.8
29	16-13	FDU	ILL ST	Serve err	FDU server		+0.7
30	17-13	ILL ST	ILL ST	Bad set	Angela Marchetto		+0.7
31	17-14	ILL ST	FDU	Attack err	Abby Reck		+0.5
32	17-15	FDU	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Nora Marginean	+0.9
33	18-15	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.7
34	18-16	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Ava DeGuzman	+0.7
35	19-16	FDU	ILL ST×3	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Audrey Clark	+0.8
36	20-16	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Abby Reck	set Audrey Clark	+0.7
37	21-16	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+0.5
38	21-17	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Mila Samardzija	+0.2
39	22-17	FDU	ILL ST×3	Kill	Abby Reck	set Audrey Clark	+0.3
40	23-17	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Isabella Scarfone		+0.2
41	24-17	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Samantha Bunch	+0.1
42	24-18	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
43	25-18	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Samantha Bunch	+0.5
2	2-0	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Ashlyn Gualtieri	blk Ruth Ziegler	+0.4
3	2-1	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.4
4	2-2	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Ayla Klingenberg		+0.5
5	3-2	FDU	ILL ST×5	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.4
6	4-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×5	Attack err	Ashlyn Gualtieri		+0.5
7	5-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×5	Attack err	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	blk Logan Grevengoed	+0.4
8	6-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×5	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.3
9	7-2	ILL ST	ILL ST×5	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Kayla Green	+0.3
10	7-3	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.2
11	8-3	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Ayla Klingenberg	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
12	8-4	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Ashlyn Gualtieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.2
13	9-4	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.2
14	9-5	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.2
15	10-5	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Logan Grevengoed	+0.2
16	11-5	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Emilija Arsic	+0.2
17	11-6	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Nora Marginean	+0.1
18	11-7	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Emilija Arsic		+0.2
19	12-7	FDU	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+0.2
20	13-7	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ayla Klingenberg	set Samantha Bunch	+0.2
21	14-7	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ella Craggs	set Samantha Bunch	+0.1
22	14-8	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Nora Marginean	+0.1
23	15-8	FDU	ILL ST	Attack err	Ashlyn Gualtieri		+0.1
24	15-9	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.1
25	16-9	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
26	16-10	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.1
27	17-10	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
28	18-10	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
29	18-11	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Angela Marchetto	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.0
30	19-11	FDU	ILL ST×4	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Audrey Clark	+0.1
31	20-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.0
32	21-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Bad set	Nora Marginean		+0.0
33	22-11	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Gualtieri	blk Abby Reck	+0.0
34	22-12	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.0
35	23-12	FDU	ILL ST	Attack err	Mila Samardzija	blk Logan Grevengoed	+0.0
36	24-12	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Audrey Clark	+0.0
37	24-13	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.0
38	24-14	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler	blk Alessia Zampieri	+0.0
39	25-14	FDU	ILL ST	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
2	1-1	ILL ST	FDU	Attack err	Jillian Gregory	blk Alessia Zampieri	+0.2
3	2-1	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
4	2-2	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.2
5	3-2	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Logan Grevengoed	set Audrey Clark	+0.2
6	3-3	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.2
7	4-3	FDU	ILL ST	Serve err	FDU server		+0.2
8	4-4	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Nora Marginean	set Mila Samardzija	+0.2
9	5-4	FDU	ILL ST×4	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Audrey Clark	+0.2
10	6-4	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+0.2
11	7-4	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.2
12	8-4	ILL ST	ILL ST×4	Attack err	Mila Samardzija		+0.2
13	8-5	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.1
14	8-6	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Emilija Arsic		+0.2
15	9-6	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
16	9-7	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Nora Marginean	set Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	+0.2
17	9-8	FDU	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.3
18	10-8	FDU	ILL ST×3	Kill	Ayla Klingenberg	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
19	11-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Ace	ILL ST server	aced Team	+0.2
20	12-8	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Agnes Shakirova	blk Logan Grevengoed, Ayla Klingenberg	+0.2
21	12-9	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Mila Samardzija	set Alessia Zampieri	+0.1
22	12-10	FDU	FDU	Kill	Alessia Zampieri	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.2
23	13-10	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
24	13-11	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Agnes Shakirova	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.2
25	14-11	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Abby Reck	set Audrey Clark	+0.2
26	15-11	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Emilija Arsic		+0.2
27	15-12	ILL ST	FDU	Attack err	Emilija Arsic	blk Angela Marchetto	+0.1
28	15-13	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Emilija Arsic	blk Angela Marchetto	+0.3
29	16-13	FDU	ILL ST	Serve err	FDU server		+0.2
30	16-14	ILL ST	FDU	Attack err	Ruth Ziegler	blk Angela Marchetto	+0.2
31	17-14	FDU	ILL ST×3	Serve err	FDU server		+0.2
32	18-14	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Attack err	Angela Marchetto	blk Emilija Arsic	+0.2
33	19-14	ILL ST	ILL ST×3	Kill	Emilija Arsic	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
34	19-15	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.1
35	19-16	FDU	FDU	Kill	Nina Jasiecka	set Nora Marginean	+0.2
36	20-16	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Ruth Ziegler	set Ella Craggs	+0.2
37	21-16	ILL ST	ILL ST	Attack err	Nina Jasiecka	blk Ruth Ziegler	+0.1
38	21-17	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Nora Marginean	+0.1
39	22-17	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Ayla Klingenberg	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
40	23-17	ILL ST	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
41	23-18	ILL ST	FDU	Serve err	ILL ST server		+0.0
42	23-19	FDU	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez		+0.0
43	24-19	FDU	ILL ST	Kill	Jillian Gregory	set Ella Craggs	+0.1
44	24-20	ILL ST	FDU	Kill	Ixchel Kiahuitl Lopez Sanchez	set Isabella Scarfone	+0.0
45	24-21	FDU	FDU	Attack err	Abby Reck	blk Angela Marchetto	+0.1
46	25-21	FDU	ILL ST	Serve err	FDU server		+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Illinois St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.