FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwaySEC

3:0

HomeHORIZON

Arkansas def. Robert Morris 3–0

(25-13, 25-18, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ARK	25	25	25	3
ROBMOR	13	18	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ROBMOR above 50 · ARK below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Robert Morris — set 3, ARK 23-23 ROBMOR. Kill by Layla Todd (set by Kenlee Barnard). ROBMOR win probability 1% → 1%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ARK 96.1%3.9% ROBMOR

Arkansas wins

3-0

59.0%

3-1

28.5%

3-2

8.6%

Robert Morris wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.1%

3-2

2.4%

ARK break %: 47.1% vs this opp
ROBMOR break %: 33.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Layla ToddKill+0.6%
Kill by Layla Todd (set by Kenlee Barnard)
Set 3 · ARK 23-23 ROBMOR · ROBMOR 1% → 1%
02
Layla ToddAttack error+0.6%
Layla Todd stuffed by Lily Dudley & Elsie Law
Set 3 · ARK 25-23 ROBMOR · ARK 99% → 100%
03
Laci BohannanAttack error+0.5%
Laci Bohannan stuffed by Addyson Butts & Kenlee Barnard
Set 1 · ARK 2-2 ROBMOR · ROBMOR 3% → 4%
04
Laci BohannanKill+0.5%
Kill by Laci Bohannan (set by Livia Niu)
Set 3 · ARK 24-23 ROBMOR · ARK 99% → 99%
05
Paisley PavliskaAttack error+0.5%
Paisley Pavliska stuffed by Addyson Butts & Tia Schultz
Set 2 · ARK 5-6 ROBMOR · ROBMOR 2% → 2%
06
Lauren DeckerAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Lauren Decker
Set 1 · ARK 4-2 ROBMOR · ARK 96% → 97%
07
Layla ToddAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Layla Todd
Set 2 · ARK 9-8 ROBMOR · ARK 98% → 98%
08
Layla ToddAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Layla Todd
Set 1 · ARK 2-0 ROBMOR · ARK 96% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Arkansasaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Laci BohannanOH	3	13	1	30	.400	0	1	4	1	0	1	0.5	14.5
27Journey PeppersMB	3	8	3	14	.357	1	0	3	2	0	5	2.5	10.5
4Lily DudleyOH	3	6	2	20	.200	0	0	2	4	0	2	1	7
18Paisley PavliskaOH	3	6	5	26	.038	0	0	0	8	2	1	0.5	6.5
3Livia NiuS	3	2	1	4	.250	30	2	2	13	0	3	1.5	5.5
11Elsie LawMB	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	5
22Ava RothL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
15Gaby CornierL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
6Madi BenneL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
Team totals		39	13	103	.252	35	3	11	44	4	14	7	75

Robert Morrishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Layla ToddOH	3	12	9	39	.077	2	1	0	11	0	1	1	1.5	14.5
5Addyson ButtsMB	3	2	1	11	.091	0	1	3	1	0	0	4	2	5
15Keira HornungMB	3	2	2	14	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
1Kenlee BarnardS	3	0	0	1	.000	16	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
10Anahi AlvaradoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	0
4Natalie StepanovichOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
13Lauren DeckerOH	3	9	8	27	.037	0	1	2	7	1	0	1	0.5	10.5
3Tia SchultzOH	3	1	1	9	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	2
6Isabelle JacksonS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
8Maddie SiphakongvisethL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	4	17	0	0	0	0	0
12Cat SmithL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		26	21	102	.049	26	4	11	46	3	1	10	6	54

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 ARK · ROBMOR 4

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 6 ARKROBMOR 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 4 ARKROBMOR 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 ARKROBMOR 4

Bars above the line = Robert Morris leads, below = Arkansas leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Arkansas

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	40%4/10
2	62%8/13	53%9/17
3	78%7/9	53%8/15
4	55%6/11	57%8/14
5	83%5/6	38%3/8
6	71%5/7	44%4/9
All	70%39/56	49%36/73

Robert Morris

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	30%3/10
2	41%7/17	38%5/13
3	47%7/15	22%2/9
4	56%5/9	30%3/10
5	71%5/7	38%3/8
6	63%5/8	17%1/6
All	51%37/73	30%17/56

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	ARK-ROBMOR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Lily Dudley	set Livia Niu	+0.3
2	2-0	ARK	ARK	Attack err	Layla Todd		+0.4
3	2-1	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.3
4	2-2	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Attack err	Laci Bohannan	blk Addyson Butts, Kenlee Barnard	+0.5
5	3-2	ROBMOR	ARK×6	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.3
6	4-2	ARK	ARK×6	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+0.4
7	5-2	ARK	ARK×6	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+0.4
8	6-2	ARK	ARK×6	Attack err	Lauren Decker	blk Livia Niu, Journey Peppers	+0.3
9	7-2	ARK	ARK×6	Bad set	Kenlee Barnard		+0.2
10	8-2	ARK	ARK×6	Kill	Livia Niu	set Madi Benne	+0.2
11	8-3	ARK	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
12	8-4	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Journey Peppers		+0.2
13	8-5	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Team	+0.3
14	9-5	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.2
15	10-5	ARK	ARK	Ace	ARK server	aced Team	+0.2
16	10-6	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.1
17	11-6	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Paisley Pavliska	set Livia Niu	+0.2
18	11-7	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.1
19	11-8	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Attack err	Paisley Pavliska		+0.3
20	12-8	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Elsie Law	set Livia Niu	+0.2
21	13-8	ARK	ARK	Kill	Elsie Law	set Livia Niu	+0.3
22	13-9	ARK	ROBMOR	Attack err	Paisley Pavliska		+0.2
23	14-9	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Lily Dudley	set Livia Niu	+0.2
24	14-10	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Isabelle Jackson	+0.2
25	15-10	ROBMOR	ARK×4	Kill	Elsie Law	set Livia Niu	+0.2
26	16-10	ARK	ARK×4	Kill	Journey Peppers	set Livia Niu	+0.2
27	17-10	ARK	ARK×4	Kill	Lily Dudley		+0.1
28	18-10	ARK	ARK×4	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.1
29	18-11	ARK	ROBMOR	Attack err	Lily Dudley	blk Layla Todd, Addyson Butts	+0.0
30	19-11	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.0
31	19-12	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Layla Todd	+0.0
32	20-12	ROBMOR	ARK×5	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.0
33	21-12	ARK	ARK×5	Attack err	Keira Hornung		+0.0
34	22-12	ARK	ARK×5	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+0.0
35	23-12	ARK	ARK×5	Attack err	Lauren Decker	blk Livia Niu, Journey Peppers	+0.0
36	24-12	ARK	ARK×5	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.0
37	24-13	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.0
38	25-13	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.3
2	1-1	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.2
3	2-1	ARK	ARK	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Journey Peppers	+0.3
4	2-2	ARK	ROBMOR	Attack err	Journey Peppers		+0.2
5	3-2	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Journey Peppers	set Livia Niu	+0.2
6	3-3	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Maddie Siphakongviseth	+0.2
7	4-3	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Journey Peppers	set Livia Niu	+0.2
8	5-3	ARK	ARK	Kill	Livia Niu	set Isabelle Jackson	+0.3
9	5-4	ARK	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Isabelle Jackson	+0.2
10	5-5	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Journey Peppers	blk Lauren Decker, Addyson Butts	+0.4
11	5-6	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Attack err	Paisley Pavliska	blk Addyson Butts, Tia Schultz	+0.5
12	6-6	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.3
13	6-7	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Isabelle Jackson	+0.3
14	7-7	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.3
15	7-8	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.4
16	8-8	ROBMOR	ARK×4	Attack err	Layla Todd		+0.3
17	9-8	ARK	ARK×4	Attack err	Layla Todd		+0.4
18	10-8	ARK	ARK×4	Kill	Elsie Law		+0.4
19	11-8	ARK	ARK×4	Attack err	Layla Todd		+0.3
20	11-9	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.2
21	12-9	ROBMOR	ARK×3	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.2
22	13-9	ARK	ARK×3	Kill	Journey Peppers		+0.2
23	14-9	ARK	ARK×3	Attack err	Layla Todd	blk Journey Peppers, Lily Dudley	+0.2
24	14-10	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
25	15-10	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.1
26	16-10	ARK	ARK	Kill	Journey Peppers	set Livia Niu	+0.1
27	16-11	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.1
28	17-11	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.1
29	17-12	ARK	ROBMOR	Attack err	Paisley Pavliska	blk Tia Schultz, Keira Hornung	+0.1
30	18-12	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.1
31	18-13	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.0
32	19-13	ROBMOR	ARK×3	Kill	Paisley Pavliska	set Livia Niu	+0.1
33	20-13	ARK	ARK×3	Ace	ARK server	aced Anahi Alvarado	+0.0
34	21-13	ARK	ARK×3	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+0.0
35	21-14	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
36	21-15	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
37	22-15	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.0
38	22-16	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
39	23-16	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Madi Benne	+0.0
40	23-17	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Keira Hornung	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.0
41	24-17	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Journey Peppers	set Livia Niu	+0.0
42	24-18	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.0
43	25-18	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Journey Peppers	set Livia Niu	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	ROBMOR	ARK	Attack err	Layla Todd		+0.1
2	1-1	ARK	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
3	1-2	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Kill	Layla Todd	set Cat Smith	+0.2
4	1-3	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×3	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Elsie Law	+0.2
5	2-3	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.1
6	3-3	ARK	ARK	Ace	ARK server	aced Lauren Decker	+0.2
7	3-4	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
8	4-4	ROBMOR	ARK	Attack err	Layla Todd		+0.1
9	4-5	ARK	ROBMOR×4	Serve err	ARK server		+0.1
10	4-6	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Paisley Pavliska	+0.2
11	4-7	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Layla Todd	+0.3
12	4-8	ROBMOR	ROBMOR×4	Attack err	Lily Dudley		+0.3
13	5-8	ROBMOR	ARK×3	Kill	Lily Dudley	set Livia Niu	+0.2
14	6-8	ARK	ARK×3	Attack err	Tia Schultz	blk Journey Peppers, Paisley Pavliska	+0.3
15	7-8	ARK	ARK×3	Attack err	Keira Hornung		+0.2
16	7-9	ARK	ROBMOR	Attack err	Paisley Pavliska		+0.2
17	8-9	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.2
18	8-10	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Tia Schultz	set Isabelle Jackson	+0.2
19	9-10	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Paisley Pavliska	set Livia Niu	+0.2
20	10-10	ARK	ARK	Kill	Journey Peppers	set Livia Niu	+0.2
21	10-11	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.2
22	10-12	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Ace	ROBMOR server	aced Paisley Pavliska	+0.3
23	11-12	ROBMOR	ARK×3	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.2
24	12-12	ARK	ARK×3	Attack err	Layla Todd		+0.3
25	13-12	ARK	ARK×3	Attack err	Addyson Butts	blk Elsie Law, Laci Bohannan	+0.2
26	13-13	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.2
27	13-14	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Attack err	Elsie Law		+0.3
28	14-14	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.2
29	14-15	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.2
30	15-15	ROBMOR	ARK×3	Kill	Lily Dudley	set Livia Niu	+0.2
31	16-15	ARK	ARK×3	Kill	Paisley Pavliska	set Madi Benne	+0.3
32	17-15	ARK	ARK×3	Kill	Lily Dudley	set Madi Benne	+0.2
33	17-16	ARK	ROBMOR	Serve err	ARK server		+0.2
34	18-16	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Paisley Pavliska	set Livia Niu	+0.2
35	19-16	ARK	ARK	Attack err	Lauren Decker		+0.2
36	19-17	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Maddie Siphakongviseth	+0.1
37	20-17	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.1
38	21-17	ARK	ARK	Kill	Paisley Pavliska	set Livia Niu	+0.1
39	21-18	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Isabelle Jackson	+0.1
40	21-19	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Lauren Decker	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.2
41	22-19	ROBMOR	ARK	Attack err	Lauren Decker	blk Journey Peppers, Livia Niu	+0.1
42	22-20	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Addyson Butts	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.1
43	22-21	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Attack err	Livia Niu	blk Layla Todd	+0.3
44	23-21	ROBMOR	ARK	Serve err	ROBMOR server		+0.3
45	23-22	ARK	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.2
46	23-23	ROBMOR	ROBMOR	Kill	Layla Todd	set Kenlee Barnard	+0.6
47	24-23	ROBMOR	ARK	Kill	Laci Bohannan	set Livia Niu	+0.5
48	25-23	ARK	ARK	Attack err	Layla Todd	blk Lily Dudley, Elsie Law	+0.6

Score shown after each rally, Arkansas first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.