St. Thomas (MN) def. North Dakota State 3-2 (Oct 24)

Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 24, 2026Midco Sports+

2:3

RallyIQ pre-match: St. Thomas (MN) 65.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 24, 11:55 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

St. Thomas (MN) beat visiting North Dakota St. 3-2 (21-25, 17-25, 25-14, 31-29, 15-13) on Sat, Oct 24, 2026. St. Thomas (MN)'s Anya Schmidt led with 26 kills, and Taylor McNear added 17 digs.

Data through Nov 4, 12:55 AM CT · final Oct 24

Set	1	2	3	4	5	Sets
ND ST	25	25	14	29	13	2
STTHOM	21	17	25	31	15	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Morgan Kealy served 4 aces, and St. Thomas (MN) needed every one.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are St. Thomas (MN)'s RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had St. Thomas (MN) at 66%.

Turning point 1: Set 4 · North Dakota St. 21–18 St. Thomas (MN)
From here St. Thomas (MN) won 13 of 21 rallies to take the set 31–29. That flipped the match to St. Thomas (MN).
St. Thomas (MN) 10% → 56%
Turning point 2: Set 5 · North Dakota St. 7–7 St. Thomas (MN)
3 straight North Dakota St. points broke a 7–7 tie and made it 10–7. The match swung to North Dakota St.
St. Thomas (MN) 54% → 21%
Turning point 3: Set 5 · North Dakota St. 12–12 St. Thomas (MN)
St. Thomas (MN) won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–13 and win the match 3–2.
St. Thomas (MN) 52% → >99%

St. Thomas (MN) above 50North Dakota St. belowMax swing 25.5%

North Dakota St.St. Thomas (MN)

Sideout %: North Dakota St. 60.6·St. Thomas (MN) 62.3
Break %: North Dakota St. 37.7·St. Thomas (MN) 39.4
Hitting: North Dakota St. .233·St. Thomas (MN) .229
Longest run: North Dakota St. 7·St. Thomas (MN) 7

Anya Schmidt
26 kills on .279, 27 points; 4 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

St. Thomas (MN) above 50 · North Dakota St. below

Biggest swing: 25.5% to St. Thomas (MN) — set 5, ND ST 13-14 STTHOM. Kill by Audrey Kocon (set by Morgan Kealy). STTHOM win probability 51% → 76%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ND ST 34.8%65.2% STTHOM

North Dakota St. wins

3-0

7.1%

3-1

12.5%

3-2

15.3%

St. Thomas (MN) wins

3-0

20.1%

3-1

25.0%

3-2

20.0%

ND ST break %: 42.6% vs this opp
STTHOM break %: 45.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Audrey KoconKill+25.5%
Kill by Audrey Kocon (set by Morgan Kealy)
Set 5 · ND ST 13-14 STTHOM · STTHOM 51% → 76%
02
Anya SchmidtKill+23.8%
Kill by Anya Schmidt (set by Audrey Kocon)
Set 5 · ND ST 13-15 STTHOM · STTHOM 76% → 100%
03
Lauren JansenKill+16.9%
Kill by Lauren Jansen (set by Sarah Pfiffner)
Set 5 · ND ST 13-12 STTHOM · ND ST 48% → 65%
04
Lauren JansenAttack error+16.0%
Attack error by Lauren Jansen
Set 5 · ND ST 13-13 STTHOM · STTHOM 35% → 51%
05
Emma Tallman&Allie CollinsBlock+15.4%
Ellie Gustafson stuffed by Emma Tallman & Allie Collins
Set 4 · ND ST 26-25 STTHOM · ND ST 68% → 84%
06
Anya SchmidtKill+15.0%
Kill by Anya Schmidt (set by Kira Brundage)
Set 5 · ND ST 11-11 STTHOM · STTHOM 37% → 52%
07
Zoe JohnAttack error+14.5%
Attack error by Zoe John
Set 4 · ND ST 23-24 STTHOM · STTHOM 29% → 43%
08
Morgan KealyKill+14.5%
Kill by Morgan Kealy (set by Anya Schmidt)
Set 4 · ND ST 26-27 STTHOM · STTHOM 29% → 43%

Box score

Official NCAA box

North Dakota St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
13Lauren JansenOH	5	26	8	67	.269	0	1	2	10	1	2	1	28
3Arianna BlohmMB	5	8	2	17	.353	0	0	3	1	0	4	2	10
9Sarah PfiffnerS	5	5	0	11	.455	45	1	3	9	0	4	2	8
8Emma TallmanMB	5	5	5	19	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	6
16Allie CollinsMB	5	0	1	4	-.250	1	0	0	1	0	5	2.5	2.5
12Sadie JohnsonDS	5	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	4	1	0	0	0
17Zoe JohnOH	5	18	7	43	.256	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	18.5
5Maddy DombeckS	5	0	0	0	–	2	3	2	13	1	0	0	3
10Rya BorerDS	5	0	0	1	.000	12	0	2	21	5	0	0	0
14Morgan EngelS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
4Kendall WorwaMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
7Abi BanittDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
19Courtney PetersOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		62	24	163	.233	62	5	14	65	9	18	9	106

St. Thomas (MN)home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Anya SchmidtOH	5	26	9	61	.279	3	0	3	13	0	2	1	27
12Heidi WingateMB	5	10	2	26	.308	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	11
5Morgan KealyS	5	4	2	14	.143	46	4	2	7	0	4	2	10
7Ellie GustafsonOH	5	8	3	28	.179	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	9
21Reilly KurthMB	5	3	4	13	-.077	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	5
24Audrey KoconOH	2	3	2	6	.167	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
3Taylor McNearL/DS	5	0	0	2	.000	4	3	4	17	4	0	0	3
6Kira BrundageL/DS	5	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	12	1	0	0	1
2Bryn LunskiOH	5	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Emory BrosnahanOH	4	8	0	13	.615	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8
10Sophia Del ValleL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Maddy BenkaOH	1	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		62	24	166	.229	59	9	13	62	5	12	6	109

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

North Dakota St. vs St. Thomas (MN)

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Thu, Sep 24, 2026St. Thomas (MN) at North Dakota St. · North Dakota St. won 3-2Result →
Sat, Oct 24, 2026North Dakota St. at St. Thomas (MN) · St. Thomas (MN) won 3-2This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 ND ST · STTHOM 7

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 4 ND STSTTHOM 3

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 7 ND STSTTHOM 3

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 2 ND STSTTHOM 7

Set 4

29-31

Longest run 4 ND STSTTHOM 4

Set 5

13-15

Longest run 3 ND STSTTHOM 3

Bars above the line = St. Thomas (MN) leads, below = North Dakota St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Dakota St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	59%13/22	41%7/17
2	54%13/24	43%10/23
3	61%11/18	43%10/23
4	69%11/16	31%5/16
5	83%10/12	29%4/14
6	47%8/17	31%4/13
All	61%66/109	38%40/106

St. Thomas (MN)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%13/24	39%7/18
2	65%13/20	38%8/21
3	60%12/20	45%10/22
4	63%10/16	35%6/17
5	67%10/15	23%3/13
6	73%8/11	50%9/18
All	62%66/106	39%43/109

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

215 rallies

#	ND ST-STTHOM	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STTHOM	ND ST×3	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+1.8
2	2-0	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.3
3	3-0	ND ST	ND ST×3	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+2.4
4	3-1	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
5	4-1	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+1.9
6	4-2	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+1.8
7	5-2	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.0
8	6-2	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Rya Borer	+2.4
9	6-3	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Kira Brundage	+1.7
10	6-4	STTHOM	STTHOM	Blocked	Zoe John	blk Heidi Wingate, Morgan Kealy	+2.3
11	7-4	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+2.1
12	7-5	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+1.9
13	8-5	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+2.1
14	9-5	ND ST	ND ST	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+2.5
15	9-6	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+1.8
16	10-6	STTHOM	ND ST×3	Blocked	Audrey Kocon	blk Zoe John, Allie Collins	+2.1
17	11-6	ND ST	ND ST×3	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+2.4
18	12-6	ND ST	ND ST×3	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+2.1
19	12-7	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.3
20	13-7	STTHOM	ND ST×4	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.7
21	14-7	ND ST	ND ST×4	Blocked	Audrey Kocon	blk Lauren Jansen, Arianna Blohm	+1.7
22	15-7	ND ST	ND ST×4	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Rya Borer	+1.3
23	16-7	ND ST	ND ST×4	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.9
24	16-8	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+0.5
25	17-8	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.7
26	17-9	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.4
27	18-9	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.6
28	18-10	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.3
29	19-10	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.5
30	19-11	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.3
31	20-11	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+0.5
32	20-12	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.2
33	21-12	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Rya Borer	+0.4
34	21-13	ND ST	STTHOM×3	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+0.2
35	21-14	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Emma Tallman		+0.3
36	21-15	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+0.6
37	22-15	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.8
38	22-16	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Taylor McNear	+0.3
39	23-16	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.6
40	23-17	ND ST	STTHOM×3	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+0.2
41	23-18	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+0.5
42	23-19	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+0.9
43	24-19	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.3
44	24-20	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+0.3
45	24-21	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Ellie Gustafson	+0.9
46	25-21	STTHOM	ND ST	Bad set	Kira Brundage		+1.7
Set 2
1	1-0	ND ST	ND ST	Attack err	Ellie Gustafson		+2.7
2	1-1	ND ST	STTHOM	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+2.1
3	1-2	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+2.6
4	2-2	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+2.2
5	2-3	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Taylor McNear	+2.1
6	3-3	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+2.2
7	3-4	ND ST	STTHOM×3	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+2.2
8	3-5	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+2.7
9	3-6	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Lauren Jansen	+2.5
10	4-6	STTHOM	ND ST×3	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Rya Borer	+1.9
11	5-6	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Zoe John	set Maddy Dombeck	+2.7
12	6-6	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.0
13	6-7	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.4
14	7-7	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.4
15	8-7	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.3
16	8-8	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+2.5
17	9-8	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.7
18	9-9	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+2.6
19	10-9	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+2.8
20	10-10	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Reilly Kurth	+2.7
21	10-11	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+3.4
22	11-11	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.8
23	12-11	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+3.7
24	12-12	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+2.9
25	13-12	STTHOM	ND ST×7	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+3.1
26	14-12	ND ST	ND ST×7	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+4.0
27	15-12	ND ST	ND ST×7	Blocked	Ellie Gustafson	blk Arianna Blohm, Sarah Pfiffner	+3.9
28	16-12	ND ST	ND ST×7	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+3.6
29	17-12	ND ST	ND ST×7	Attack err	Maddy Benka		+3.0
30	18-12	ND ST	ND ST×7	Attack err	Morgan Kealy		+2.4
31	19-12	ND ST	ND ST×7	Blocked	Maddy Benka	blk Arianna Blohm, Sarah Pfiffner	+1.7
32	19-13	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+0.8
33	20-13	STTHOM	ND ST×3	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.2
34	21-13	ND ST	ND ST×3	Ace	Lauren Jansen	aced Taylor McNear	+0.9
35	22-13	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.4
36	22-14	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
37	22-15	STTHOM	STTHOM	Blocked	Zoe John	blk Morgan Kealy, Reilly Kurth	+0.3
38	23-15	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+0.4
39	24-15	ND ST	ND ST	Blocked	Anya Schmidt	blk Sarah Pfiffner, Allie Collins	+0.2
40	24-16	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		·
41	24-17	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Maddy Dombeck	+0.1
42	25-17	STTHOM	ND ST	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.7
2	1-1	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.7
3	1-2	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)		+2.1
4	2-2	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+1.7
5	3-2	ND ST	ND ST	Ace	Maddy Dombeck	aced Taylor McNear	+2.3
6	3-3	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+1.8
7	4-3	STTHOM	ND ST	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+1.9
8	4-4	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+1.8
9	5-4	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Rya Borer	+1.9
10	6-4	ND ST	ND ST	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+2.5
11	6-5	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+1.9
12	6-6	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Allie Collins		+2.4
13	7-6	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.0
14	7-7	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+2.0
15	7-8	STTHOM	STTHOM	Blocked	Zoe John	blk Heidi Wingate, Morgan Kealy	+2.5
16	8-8	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.0
17	8-9	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Anya Schmidt	+2.0
18	8-10	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Heidi Wingate	+2.4
19	9-10	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.9
20	10-10	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.7
21	10-11	ND ST	STTHOM×4	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+2.1
22	10-12	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+2.6
23	10-13	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Blocked	Emma Tallman	blk Anya Schmidt, Reilly Kurth	+2.4
24	10-14	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Sadie Johnson	+2.1
25	11-14	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+1.4
26	11-15	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Arianna Blohm	+1.7
27	12-15	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.4
28	12-16	ND ST	STTHOM	Attack err	Arianna Blohm		+1.7
29	12-17	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Zoe John		+1.7
30	13-17	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.1
31	13-18	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+1.4
32	14-18	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+1.0
33	14-19	ND ST	STTHOM×7	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+1.3
34	14-20	STTHOM	STTHOM×7	Attack err	Zoe John		+1.1
35	14-21	STTHOM	STTHOM×7	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Rya Borer	+0.7
36	14-22	STTHOM	STTHOM×7	Attack err	Kendall Worwa		+0.3
37	14-23	STTHOM	STTHOM×7	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+0.1
38	14-24	STTHOM	STTHOM×7	Kill	Heidi Wingate		·
39	14-25	STTHOM	STTHOM×7	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Taylor McNear	·
Set 4
1	0-1	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+2.7
2	1-1	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+2.8
3	1-2	ND ST	STTHOM×4	Kill	Reilly Kurth	set Morgan Kealy	+2.8
4	1-3	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+3.4
5	1-4	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Attack err	Emma Tallman		+3.2
6	1-5	STTHOM	STTHOM×4	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Rya Borer	+2.9
7	2-5	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	Morgan Kealy		+2.2
8	3-5	ND ST	ND ST	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+3.1
9	3-6	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+2.6
10	4-6	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.6
11	4-7	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+2.7
12	5-7	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+2.6
13	5-8	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+2.8
14	6-8	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Rya Borer	+2.7
15	6-9	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+2.8
16	7-9	STTHOM	ND ST	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+2.7
17	8-9	ND ST	ND ST	Kill	Emma Tallman	set Sarah Pfiffner	+3.9
18	8-10	ND ST	STTHOM	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+3.2
19	8-11	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Rya Borer	+3.8
20	9-11	STTHOM	ND ST×4	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Allie Collins	+2.8
21	10-11	ND ST	ND ST×4	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+4.1
22	11-11	ND ST	ND ST×4	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+4.6
23	12-11	ND ST	ND ST×4	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+5.0
24	12-12	ND ST	STTHOM	Attack err	Arianna Blohm		+3.9
25	12-13	STTHOM	STTHOM	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Rya Borer	+4.9
26	13-13	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+4.0
27	13-14	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+4.1
28	14-14	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Rya Borer	+4.2
29	14-15	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+4.3
30	15-15	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+4.4
31	15-16	ND ST	STTHOM	Attack err	Zoe John		+4.5
32	16-16	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+4.6
33	16-17	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+4.8
34	17-17	STTHOM	ND ST×4	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+4.9
35	18-17	ND ST	ND ST×4	Attack err	Morgan Kealy		+6.8
36	19-17	ND ST	ND ST×4	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+7.0
37	20-17	ND ST	ND ST×4	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sadie Johnson	+6.5
38	20-18	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+4.0
39	21-18	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+5.5
40	21-19	ND ST	STTHOM×3	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+4.0
41	21-20	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Ace	St. Thomas (MN)	aced Rya Borer	+6.8
42	21-21	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Emma Tallman		+8.6
43	22-21	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+8.1
44	22-22	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+7.7
45	23-22	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Sarah Pfiffner	set Sadie Johnson	+9.6
46	23-23	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+9.1
47	23-24	STTHOM	STTHOM	Attack err	Zoe John		+14.5
48	24-24	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+11.5
49	24-25	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	North Dakota St.		+11.5
50	25-25	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+11.5
51	26-25	ND ST	ND ST	Blocked	Ellie Gustafson	blk Emma Tallman, Allie Collins	+15.4
52	26-26	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+12.4
53	26-27	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Morgan Kealy	set Anya Schmidt	+14.5
54	27-27	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+11.5
55	27-28	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+11.5
56	28-28	STTHOM	ND ST	Blocked	Anya Schmidt	blk Emma Tallman, Allie Collins	+11.5
57	28-29	ND ST	STTHOM	Blocked	Emma Tallman	blk Anya Schmidt, Reilly Kurth	+11.5
58	29-29	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+11.5
59	29-30	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Emory Brosnahan	set Morgan Kealy	+11.5
60	29-31	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Anya Schmidt	+12.7
Set 5
1	0-1	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Taylor McNear	+8.0
2	0-2	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt		+7.7
3	1-2	STTHOM	ND ST	Blocked	Heidi Wingate	blk Lauren Jansen, Allie Collins	+6.0
4	1-3	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+6.3
5	1-4	STTHOM	STTHOM	Blocked	Lauren Jansen	blk Morgan Kealy, Reilly Kurth	+7.3
6	2-4	STTHOM	ND ST×3	Kill	Arianna Blohm	set Sarah Pfiffner	+5.3
7	3-4	ND ST	ND ST×3	Ace	Maddy Dombeck	aced Taylor McNear	+7.9
8	4-4	ND ST	ND ST×3	Ace	Maddy Dombeck	aced Kira Brundage	+9.1
9	4-5	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+7.5
10	5-5	STTHOM	ND ST	Attack err	Anya Schmidt		+7.7
11	5-6	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+7.9
12	6-6	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+8.1
13	7-6	ND ST	ND ST	Attack err	Reilly Kurth		+11.1
14	7-7	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+8.6
15	8-7	STTHOM	ND ST×3	Kill	Zoe John	set Maddy Dombeck	+9.6
16	9-7	ND ST	ND ST×3	Ace	Sarah Pfiffner	aced Taylor McNear	+12.2
17	10-7	ND ST	ND ST×3	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+11.4
18	10-8	ND ST	STTHOM	Serve err	Sarah Pfiffner		+7.0
19	10-9	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Ellie Gustafson	set Morgan Kealy	+11.4
20	11-9	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Zoe John	set Sarah Pfiffner	+11.5
21	11-10	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Heidi Wingate	set Morgan Kealy	+9.5
22	11-11	STTHOM	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Kira Brundage	+15.0
23	12-11	STTHOM	ND ST	Serve err	St. Thomas (MN)		+14.2
24	12-12	ND ST	STTHOM	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Morgan Kealy	+13.5
25	13-12	STTHOM	ND ST	Kill	Lauren Jansen	set Sarah Pfiffner	+16.9
26	13-13	ND ST	STTHOM×3	Attack err	Lauren Jansen		+16.0
27	13-14	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Audrey Kocon	set Morgan Kealy	+25.5
28	13-15	STTHOM	STTHOM×3	Kill	Anya Schmidt	set Audrey Kocon	+23.8

Score shown after each rally, North Dakota St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

St. Thomas (MN) def. North Dakota St. 3–2

Morgan Kealy served 4 aces, and St. Thomas (MN) needed every one.