Win probability
Biggest swing: 10.6% to NIU — set 1, UIC 23-25 NIU. Attack error by Jillian Gibbons. NIU win probability 44% → 54%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
UIC wins
NIU wins
- UIC break %
- 42.2% vs this opp
- NIU break %
- 38.8% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Jillian GibbonsAttack error+10.6%
Attack error by Jillian Gibbons
Set 1 · UIC 23-25 NIU · NIU 44% → 54%
- 02Autumn FlynnKill+6.7%
Kill by Autumn Flynn (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 1 · UIC 23-24 NIU · NIU 37% → 44%
- 03NIUAce+6.6%
NIU ace
Set 1 · UIC 21-22 NIU · NIU 34% → 41%
- 04Nathàlia Souza da SilvaKill+5.5%
Kill by Nathàlia Souza da Silva (set by Ava Young)
Set 1 · UIC 21-20 NIU · UIC 64% → 70%
- 05Nathàlia Souza da SilvaAttack error+5.4%
Attack error by Nathàlia Souza da Silva
Set 1 · UIC 22-23 NIU · NIU 36% → 42%
- 06Ava Grevengoed&Autumn FlynnBlock+5.3%
Gabi Peter stuffed by Ava Grevengoed & Autumn Flynn
Set 1 · UIC 19-20 NIU · NIU 34% → 39%
- 07
- 08
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 11 | 4 | 38 | .184 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 12.5 | |
| 3 | 7 | 1 | 12 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 8.5 | |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 25 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 21 | .048 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.000 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 4.5 | |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 40 | 24 | 121 | .132 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 61 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 13 | 2 | 33 | .333 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 16.5 | |
| 3 | 8 | 2 | 14 | .429 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 | .188 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 8.5 | |
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 22 | .136 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 2.5 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 18 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | .455 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 6.5 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team totals | 43 | 13 | 100 | .300 | 40 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 75 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
23-25
Set 2
22-25
Set 3
16-25
Bars above the line = NIU leads, below = UIC leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
UIC
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44%8/18 | 36%4/11 |
| 2 | 67%8/12 | 33%4/12 |
| 3 | 53%8/15 | 33%4/12 |
| 4 | 70%7/10 | 11%1/9 |
| 5 | 46%6/13 | 22%2/9 |
| 6 | 100%6/6 | 33%3/9 |
| All | 58%43/74 | 29%18/62 |
NIU
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62%8/13 | 42%5/12 |
| 2 | 73%8/11 | 53%9/17 |
| 3 | 80%8/10 | 43%6/14 |
| 4 | 73%8/11 | 33%4/12 |
| 5 | 75%6/8 | 40%4/10 |
| 6 | 67%6/9 | 33%3/9 |
| All | 71%44/62 | 42%31/74 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
136 rallies
| # | UIC-NIU | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | NIU | NIU | Attack err | Jillian Gibbons | +2.4 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Paulina Ströh | +1.6 |
| 3 | 2-1 | UIC | UIC | Attack err | Ava Grevengoed | +2.3 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +1.6 |
| 5 | 3-2 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Gabi Peter | set Paulina Ströh | +1.6 |
| 6 | 3-3 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +1.7 |
| 7 | 4-3 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Judy Asar | +1.7 |
| 8 | 4-4 | UIC | NIU×3 | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Kylie Schulze | +1.7 |
| 9 | 4-5 | NIU | NIU×3 | Ace | NIU | aced Emma Colombari | +2.7 |
| 10 | 4-6 | NIU | NIU×3 | Kill | Delaney Steers | +2.8 | |
| 11 | 5-6 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Tamara Kisic | set Judy Asar | +1.8 |
| 12 | 6-6 | UIC | UIC | Kill | Tamara Kisic | set Judy Asar | +2.7 |
| 13 | 6-7 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Kylie Schulze | set Judy Asar | +1.9 |
| 14 | 7-7 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Tamara Kisic | set Judy Asar | +1.9 |
| 15 | 7-8 | UIC | NIU | Serve err | UIC | +2.0 | |
| 16 | 8-8 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Gabi Peter | set Paulina Ströh | +1.9 |
| 17 | 9-8 | UIC | UIC | Ace | UIC | aced Charlotte Gramzow | +2.8 |
| 18 | 9-9 | UIC | NIU | Attack err | Jillian Gibbons | +2.0 | |
| 19 | 10-9 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Gabi Peter | set Paulina Ströh | +2.0 |
| 20 | 10-10 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.0 |
| 21 | 10-11 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +3.2 |
| 22 | 11-11 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Gabi Peter | set Ava Young | +2.1 |
| 23 | 11-12 | UIC | NIU | Attack err | Robyn Ward | +2.3 | |
| 24 | 11-13 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +3.4 |
| 25 | 12-13 | NIU | UIC | Serve err | NIU | +2.1 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Kylie Schulze | +2.5 |
| 27 | 13-14 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Robyn Ward | set Judy Asar | +2.2 |
| 28 | 13-15 | UIC | NIU | Serve err | UIC | +2.6 | |
| 29 | 14-15 | NIU | UIC×3 | Kill | Tamara Kisic | set Judy Asar | +2.3 |
| 30 | 15-15 | UIC | UIC×3 | Kill | Tamara Kisic | set Ava Young | +3.7 |
| 31 | 16-15 | UIC | UIC×3 | Kill | Tamara Kisic | set Paulina Ströh | +3.8 |
| 32 | 16-16 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +2.6 |
| 33 | 17-16 | NIU | UIC | Serve err | NIU | +2.7 | |
| 34 | 18-16 | UIC | UIC | Attack err | Delaney Steers | +3.8 | |
| 35 | 18-17 | UIC | NIU | Attack err | Gabi Peter | +2.3 | |
| 36 | 19-17 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Jillian Gibbons | set Paulina Ströh | +2.7 |
| 37 | 19-18 | UIC | NIU×3 | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.4 |
| 38 | 19-19 | NIU | NIU×3 | Attack err | Gabi Peter | +4.5 | |
| 39 | 19-20 | NIU | NIU×3 | Blocked | Gabi Peter | blk Ava Grevengoed, Autumn Flynn | +5.3 |
| 40 | 20-20 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Robyn Ward | set Paulina Ströh | +3.4 |
| 41 | 21-20 | UIC | UIC | Kill | Nathàlia Souza da Silva | set Ava Young | +5.5 |
| 42 | 21-21 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +3.7 |
| 43 | 21-22 | NIU | NIU | Ace | NIU | +6.6 | |
| 44 | 22-22 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Judy Asar | +4.3 |
| 45 | 22-23 | UIC | NIU | Attack err | Nathàlia Souza da Silva | +5.4 | |
| 46 | 23-23 | NIU | UIC | Bad set | Kylie Schulze | +5.0 | |
| 47 | 23-24 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Kylie Schulze | +6.7 |
| 48 | 23-25 | NIU | NIU | Attack err | Jillian Gibbons | +10.6 | |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.0 |
| 2 | 1-1 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | +2.0 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.1 |
| 4 | 2-2 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Robyn Ward | set Paulina Ströh | +2.0 |
| 5 | 3-2 | UIC | UIC | Kill | Nathàlia Souza da Silva | set Kylie Schulze | +2.9 |
| 6 | 3-3 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Kylie Schulze | +2.0 |
| 7 | 4-3 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Judy Asar | +2.0 |
| 8 | 4-4 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Kylie Schulze | +2.1 |
| 9 | 5-4 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Robyn Ward | set Judy Asar | +2.1 |
| 10 | 5-5 | UIC | NIU×4 | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +2.1 |
| 11 | 5-6 | NIU | NIU×4 | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +3.3 |
| 12 | 5-7 | NIU | NIU×4 | Blocked | Tamara Kisic | blk Rylea Alvin | +3.5 |
| 13 | 5-8 | NIU | NIU×4 | Ace | NIU | aced Ava Young | +3.5 |
| 14 | 6-8 | NIU | UIC | Attack err | Delaney Steers | +2.1 | |
| 15 | 6-9 | UIC | NIU | Blocked | Tamara Kisic | blk Rylea Alvin, Katie Pahl | +2.4 |
| 16 | 7-9 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Tamara Kisic | set Emma Colombari | +2.1 |
| 17 | 8-9 | UIC | UIC | Blocked | Katie Pahl | blk Ana Petrides, Emma Colombari | +3.4 |
| 18 | 8-10 | UIC | NIU×5 | Serve err | UIC | +2.6 | |
| 19 | 8-11 | NIU | NIU×5 | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Viktoria Djukic | +3.7 |
| 20 | 8-12 | NIU | NIU×5 | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Charlotte Gramzow | +3.5 |
| 21 | 8-13 | NIU | NIU×5 | Attack err | Emma Colombari | +3.1 | |
| 22 | 8-14 | NIU | NIU×5 | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.6 |
| 23 | 9-14 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Paulina Ströh | +1.2 |
| 24 | 9-15 | UIC | NIU | Attack err | Tamara Kisic | +1.7 | |
| 25 | 10-15 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Robyn Ward | set Paulina Ströh | +1.2 |
| 26 | 10-16 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Kylie Schulze | +1.7 |
| 27 | 11-16 | NIU | UIC | Attack err | Autumn Flynn | +1.1 | |
| 28 | 11-17 | UIC | NIU | Blocked | Tamara Kisic | blk Kiana Shields, Autumn Flynn | +1.7 |
| 29 | 12-17 | NIU | UIC | Serve err | NIU | +1.1 | |
| 30 | 12-18 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +1.6 |
| 31 | 13-18 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Nathàlia Souza da Silva | set Judy Asar | +1.0 |
| 32 | 14-18 | UIC | UIC | Kill | Elizabeth King | set Ava Young | +2.1 |
| 33 | 14-19 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Katie Pahl | +2.1 |
| 34 | 15-19 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Gabi Peter | set Paulina Ströh | +1.3 |
| 35 | 16-19 | UIC | UIC | Attack err | Ava Grevengoed | +2.8 | |
| 36 | 16-20 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.8 |
| 37 | 16-21 | NIU | NIU | Attack err | Gabi Peter | +2.8 | |
| 38 | 17-21 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Paulina Ströh | +1.0 |
| 39 | 18-21 | UIC | UIC | Blocked | Katie Pahl | blk Robyn Ward | +2.5 |
| 40 | 18-22 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.8 |
| 41 | 19-22 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Gabi Peter | set Paulina Ströh | +1.5 |
| 42 | 20-22 | UIC | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Judy Asar | +3.6 |
| 43 | 20-23 | UIC | NIU | Serve err | UIC | +4.1 | |
| 44 | 20-24 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +3.3 |
| 45 | 21-24 | NIU | UIC | Blocked | Delaney Steers | blk Nathàlia Souza da Silva | +0.6 |
| 46 | 22-24 | UIC | UIC | Blocked | Autumn Flynn | blk Nathàlia Souza da Silva, Robyn Ward | +2.2 |
| 47 | 22-25 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Kylie Schulze | +3.8 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | NIU | NIU | Attack err | Emma Colombari | +2.3 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Ava Young | +1.5 |
| 3 | 2-1 | UIC | UIC | Blocked | Katie Pahl | blk Emma Colombari | +2.3 |
| 4 | 2-2 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Delaney Steers | +1.6 |
| 5 | 3-2 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Robyn Ward | set Paulina Ströh | +1.6 |
| 6 | 3-3 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +1.6 |
| 7 | 3-4 | NIU | NIU | Blocked | Tamara Kisic | blk Ava Grevengoed | +2.5 |
| 8 | 4-4 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Judy Asar | +1.7 |
| 9 | 4-5 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Charlotte Gramzow | +1.8 |
| 10 | 5-5 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Gabi Peter | set Judy Asar | +1.7 |
| 11 | 6-5 | UIC | UIC | Attack err | Delaney Steers | +2.5 | |
| 12 | 6-6 | UIC | NIU×3 | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Kylie Schulze | +1.7 |
| 13 | 6-7 | NIU | NIU×3 | Blocked | Tamara Kisic | blk Kiana Shields | +2.7 |
| 14 | 6-8 | NIU | NIU×3 | Attack err | Jillian Gibbons | +2.8 | |
| 15 | 7-8 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Jillian Gibbons | set Judy Asar | +1.8 |
| 16 | 7-9 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Kylie Schulze | +2.0 |
| 17 | 8-9 | NIU | UIC | Serve err | NIU | +1.8 | |
| 18 | 8-10 | UIC | NIU×3 | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Charlotte Gramzow | +2.1 |
| 19 | 8-11 | NIU | NIU×3 | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +3.0 |
| 20 | 8-12 | NIU | NIU×3 | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Charlotte Gramzow | +2.8 |
| 21 | 9-12 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Jillian Gibbons | set Paulina Ströh | +1.6 |
| 22 | 10-12 | UIC | UIC | Kill | Emma Colombari | set Paulina Ströh | +2.7 |
| 23 | 10-13 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Rylea Alvin | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.2 |
| 24 | 10-14 | NIU | NIU | Ace | NIU | aced Tamara Kisic | +2.9 |
| 25 | 11-14 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Robyn Ward | set Paulina Ströh | +1.6 |
| 26 | 12-14 | UIC | UIC | Ace | UIC | aced Delaney Steers | +2.8 |
| 27 | 12-15 | UIC | NIU×4 | Attack err | Gabi Peter | +2.3 | |
| 28 | 12-16 | NIU | NIU×4 | Blocked | Emma Colombari | blk Ava Grevengoed | +3.0 |
| 29 | 12-17 | NIU | NIU×4 | Attack err | Judy Asar | +2.5 | |
| 30 | 12-18 | NIU | NIU×4 | Kill | Autumn Flynn | +1.9 | |
| 31 | 13-18 | NIU | UIC | Serve err | NIU | +0.8 | |
| 32 | 13-19 | UIC | NIU | Attack err | Tamara Kisic | +1.2 | |
| 33 | 13-20 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Charlotte Gramzow | +1.1 |
| 34 | 14-20 | NIU | UIC | Attack err | Delaney Steers | +0.4 | |
| 35 | 14-21 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Kylie Schulze | +0.7 |
| 36 | 14-22 | NIU | NIU | Attack err | Gabi Peter | +0.4 | |
| 37 | 15-22 | NIU | UIC | Kill | Ava Young | set Ava Grevengoed | +0.1 |
| 38 | 15-23 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +0.2 |
| 39 | 16-23 | NIU | UIC | Blocked | Katie Pahl | blk Jillian Gibbons, Sasha Pellettieri | +0.1 |
| 40 | 16-24 | UIC | NIU | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Viktoria Djukic | +0.1 |
| 41 | 16-25 | NIU | NIU | Attack err | Emma Colombari | · | |
Score shown after each rally, UIC first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).