FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeHORIZON

NIU def. UIC 3–0

(25-23, 25-22, 25-16)

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
UIC	23	22	16	0
NIU	25	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NIU above 50 · UIC below

Biggest swing: 10.3% to NIU — set 1, UIC 23-25 NIU. Attack error by Jillian Gibbons. NIU win probability 55% → 65%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UIC 54.6%45.4% NIU

UIC wins

3-0

14.5%

3-1

20.7%

3-2

19.4%

NIU wins

3-0

10.7%

3-1

16.8%

3-2

17.9%

UIC break %: 42.1% vs this opp
NIU break %: 41.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jillian GibbonsAttack error+10.3%
Attack error by Jillian Gibbons
Set 1 · UIC 23-25 NIU · NIU 55% → 65%
02
Autumn FlynnKill+7.3%
Kill by Autumn Flynn (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 1 · UIC 23-24 NIU · NIU 48% → 55%
03
NIU serverAce+6.8%
NIU ace on TEAM
Set 1 · UIC 21-22 NIU · NIU 45% → 52%
04
Nathàlia Souza da silvaKill+5.9%
Kill by Nathàlia Souza da silva (set by Ava Young)
Set 1 · UIC 21-20 NIU · UIC 53% → 59%
05
Nathàlia Souza da silvaAttack error+5.8%
Attack error by Nathàlia Souza da silva
Set 1 · UIC 22-23 NIU · NIU 47% → 53%
06
Kylie SchulzeBad set+5.5%
Bad set by Kylie Schulze
Set 1 · UIC 23-23 NIU · UIC 47% → 52%
07
Gabi PeterAttack error+5.4%
Gabi Peter stuffed by Autumn Flynn & Ava Grevengoed
Set 1 · UIC 19-20 NIU · NIU 45% → 51%
08
Gabi PeterAttack error+4.8%
Attack error by Gabi Peter
Set 1 · UIC 19-19 NIU · NIU 41% → 45%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UICaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Emma ColombariOH	3	11	4	38	.184	1	0	0	9	1	1	1	1.5	12.5
7Robyn WardMB	3	7	1	12	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
8Tamara KisicOH	3	7	7	25	.000	0	1	1	9	1	0	0	0	8
9Gabi PeterOH	3	7	6	21	.048	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
17Jillian GibbonsMB	3	3	4	8	-.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
6Paulina StröhS	3	0	0	2	.000	18	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	0
5Nathàlia Souza da silvaOH	3	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
1Elizabeth KingOH	3	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
27Ava YoungL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	5	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	1
4Judy AsarS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	13	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	1
18Ana PetridesMB	3	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
11Sasha PellettieriOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
3Francesca LorenzoOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24Lianna OrtizL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Martina CerratoOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Maryam HusseinMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Mihaela HarizanovaS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Nour ElsafyOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	24	121	.132	37	2	4	41	4	3	6	6	61

NIUhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Ava GrevengoedOH	3	13	2	33	.333	0	1	0	9	0	2	1	2.5	16.5
15Autumn FlynnMB	3	8	2	14	.429	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	9
11Katie PahlOH	3	7	4	16	.188	1	1	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
9Delaney SteersOH	3	8	5	22	.136	1	0	0	8	1	0	0	0	8
8Rylea AlvinMB	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
6Viktoria DjukicS	3	0	0	0	–	18	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
4Kiana ShieldsMB	3	5	0	11	.455	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
5Kylie SchulzeS	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
18Charlotte GramzowL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	0	13	1	0	0	0	1
12Aiden LightburnMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Charizma LoftonOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7Ellie SmithS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Lilly AbneyOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Naomi DowdOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Nathalie TulumarisL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	13	100	.300	40	4	5	48	2	4	6	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 UIC · NIU 5

Set 1*

23-25

Longest run 3 UICNIU 3

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 2 UICNIU 5

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 2 UICNIU 4

Bars above the line = NIU leads, below = UIC leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UIC

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%5/14	29%2/7
2	83%5/6	38%3/8
3	50%5/10	38%3/8
4	80%4/5	17%1/6
5	40%4/10	20%1/5
6	100%4/4	20%1/5
All	55%27/49	28%11/39

NIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%5/9	50%4/8
2	71%5/7	55%6/11
3	71%5/7	44%4/9
4	71%5/7	29%2/7
5	100%4/4	43%3/7
6	80%4/5	43%3/7
All	72%28/39	45%22/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	UIC-NIU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Jillian Gibbons		+2.5
2	1-1	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Paulina Ströh	+1.8
3	2-1	UIC	UIC	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+2.6
4	2-2	UIC	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.8
5	3-2	NIU	UIC	Kill	Gabi Peter	set Paulina Ströh	+1.9
6	3-3	UIC	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.9
7	4-3	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Judy Asar	+1.9
8	4-4	UIC	NIU×3	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.9
9	4-5	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Emma Colombari	+2.8
10	4-6	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Delaney Steers		+2.8
11	5-6	NIU	UIC	Kill	Tamara Kisic	set Judy Asar	+1.9
12	6-6	UIC	UIC	Kill	Tamara Kisic	set Judy Asar	+2.8
13	6-7	UIC	NIU	Kill	Kylie Schulze		+2.1
14	7-7	NIU	UIC	Kill	Tamara Kisic	set Judy Asar	+2.1
15	7-8	UIC	NIU	Serve err	UIC server		+2.2
16	8-8	NIU	UIC	Kill	Gabi Peter	set Paulina Ströh	+2.1
17	9-8	UIC	UIC	Ace	UIC server	aced Charlotte Gramzow	+3.1
18	9-9	UIC	NIU	Attack err	Jillian Gibbons	set Paulina Ströh	+2.2
19	10-9	NIU	UIC	Kill	Gabi Peter	set Paulina Ströh	+2.2
20	10-10	UIC	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+2.3
21	10-11	NIU	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+3.3
22	11-11	NIU	UIC	Kill	Gabi Peter	set Ava Young	+2.3
23	11-12	UIC	NIU	Attack err	Robyn Ward	set Judy Asar	+2.5
24	11-13	NIU	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+3.4
25	12-13	NIU	UIC	Serve err	NIU server		+2.3
26	12-14	UIC	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+2.6
27	13-14	NIU	UIC	Kill	Robyn Ward	set Judy Asar	+2.4
28	13-15	UIC	NIU	Serve err	UIC server		+2.7
29	14-15	NIU	UIC×3	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.4
30	15-15	UIC	UIC×3	Kill	Tamara Kisic	set Ava Young	+3.8
31	16-15	UIC	UIC×3	Kill	Tamara Kisic	set Paulina Ströh	+4.0
32	16-16	UIC	NIU	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Kylie Schulze	+2.9
33	17-16	NIU	UIC	Serve err	NIU server		+3.0
34	18-16	UIC	UIC	Attack err	Delaney Steers		+4.2
35	18-17	UIC	NIU	Attack err	Gabi Peter	set Paulina Ströh	+2.7
36	19-17	NIU	UIC	Kill	Jillian Gibbons	set Paulina Ströh	+3.2
37	19-18	UIC	NIU×3	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+2.8
38	19-19	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Gabi Peter		+4.8
39	19-20	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Gabi Peter	blk Autumn Flynn, Ava Grevengoed	+5.4
40	20-20	NIU	UIC	Kill	Robyn Ward	set Paulina Ströh	+3.8
41	21-20	UIC	UIC	Kill	Nathàlia Souza da silva	set Ava Young	+5.9
42	21-21	UIC	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+4.1
43	21-22	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced TEAM	+6.8
44	22-22	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Judy Asar	+4.7
45	22-23	UIC	NIU	Attack err	Nathàlia Souza da silva	set Ava Young	+5.8
46	23-23	NIU	UIC	Bad set	Kylie Schulze		+5.5
47	23-24	UIC	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+7.3
48	23-25	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Jillian Gibbons		+10.3
Set 2
1	0-1	UIC	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.9
2	1-1	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari		+1.9
3	1-2	UIC	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+2.0
4	2-2	NIU	UIC	Kill	Robyn Ward	set Paulina Ströh	+1.9
5	3-2	UIC	UIC	Kill	Nathàlia Souza da silva	set Kylie Schulze	+2.7
6	3-3	UIC	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+2.0
7	4-3	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Judy Asar	+2.0
8	4-4	UIC	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+2.0
9	5-4	NIU	UIC	Kill	Robyn Ward		+2.0
10	5-5	UIC	NIU×4	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Kylie Schulze	+2.1
11	5-6	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+3.0
12	5-7	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Tamara Kisic	blk Rylea Alvin	+3.0
13	5-8	NIU	NIU×4	Ace	NIU server	aced Ava Young	+2.9
14	6-8	NIU	UIC	Attack err	Delaney Steers	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.9
15	6-9	UIC	NIU	Attack err	Tamara Kisic	blk Katie Pahl, Rylea Alvin	+2.1
16	7-9	NIU	UIC	Kill	Tamara Kisic	set Emma Colombari	+1.9
17	8-9	UIC	UIC	Attack err	Katie Pahl	blk Emma Colombari, Ana Petrides	+3.0
18	8-10	UIC	NIU×5	Serve err	UIC server		+2.3
19	8-11	NIU	NIU×5	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+3.1
20	8-12	NIU	NIU×5	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Charlotte Gramzow	+2.9
21	8-13	NIU	NIU×5	Attack err	Emma Colombari		+2.5
22	8-14	NIU	NIU×5	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+2.0
23	9-14	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Paulina Ströh	+1.1
24	9-15	UIC	NIU	Attack err	Tamara Kisic	set Emma Colombari	+1.4
25	10-15	NIU	UIC	Kill	Robyn Ward	set Paulina Ströh	+1.0
26	10-16	UIC	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+1.4
27	11-16	NIU	UIC	Attack err	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+1.0
28	11-17	UIC	NIU	Attack err	Tamara Kisic	blk Autumn Flynn, Kiana Shields	+1.4
29	12-17	NIU	UIC	Serve err	NIU server		+0.9
30	12-18	UIC	NIU	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Kylie Schulze	+1.3
31	13-18	NIU	UIC	Kill	Nathàlia Souza da silva	set Judy Asar	+0.8
32	14-18	UIC	UIC	Kill	Elizabeth King	set Ava Young	+1.7
33	14-19	UIC	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Katie Pahl	+1.8
34	15-19	NIU	UIC	Kill	Gabi Peter	set Paulina Ströh	+1.2
35	16-19	UIC	UIC	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+2.4
36	16-20	UIC	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+2.4
37	16-21	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Gabi Peter		+2.3
38	17-21	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Paulina Ströh	+0.9
39	18-21	UIC	UIC	Attack err	Katie Pahl	blk Robyn Ward	+2.1
40	18-22	UIC	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+2.3
41	19-22	NIU	UIC	Kill	Gabi Peter	set Paulina Ströh	+1.3
42	20-22	UIC	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Judy Asar	+3.1
43	20-23	UIC	NIU	Serve err	UIC server		+3.5
44	20-24	NIU	NIU	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Kylie Schulze	+2.8
45	21-24	NIU	UIC	Attack err	Delaney Steers	blk Nathàlia Souza da silva	+0.6
46	22-24	UIC	UIC	Attack err	Autumn Flynn	blk Robyn Ward, Nathàlia Souza da silva	+1.9
47	22-25	UIC	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+3.3
Set 3
1	0-1	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Emma Colombari		+1.8
2	1-1	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Ava Young	+1.3
3	2-1	UIC	UIC	Attack err	Katie Pahl	blk Emma Colombari	+1.8
4	2-2	UIC	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Delaney Steers	+1.3
5	3-2	NIU	UIC	Kill	Robyn Ward	set Paulina Ströh	+1.3
6	3-3	UIC	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.3
7	3-4	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Tamara Kisic	blk Ava Grevengoed	+2.0
8	4-4	NIU	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Judy Asar	+1.4
9	4-5	UIC	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Charlotte Gramzow	+1.4
10	5-5	NIU	UIC	Kill	Gabi Peter	set Judy Asar	+1.4
11	6-5	UIC	UIC	Attack err	Delaney Steers		+2.0
12	6-6	UIC	NIU×3	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+1.4
13	6-7	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Tamara Kisic	blk Kiana Shields	+2.1
14	6-8	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Jillian Gibbons		+2.1
15	7-8	NIU	UIC	Kill	Jillian Gibbons		+1.4
16	7-9	UIC	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+1.6
17	8-9	NIU	UIC	Serve err	NIU server		+1.5
18	8-10	UIC	NIU×3	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Charlotte Gramzow	+1.6
19	8-11	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+2.1
20	8-12	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Charlotte Gramzow	+2.0
21	9-12	NIU	UIC	Kill	Jillian Gibbons	set Paulina Ströh	+1.2
22	10-12	UIC	UIC	Kill	Emma Colombari	set Paulina Ströh	+2.0
23	10-13	UIC	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Viktoria Djukic	+1.6
24	10-14	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Tamara Kisic	+2.0
25	11-14	NIU	UIC	Kill	Robyn Ward	set Paulina Ströh	+1.2
26	12-14	UIC	UIC	Ace	UIC server	aced Delaney Steers	+2.0
27	12-15	UIC	NIU×4	Attack err	Gabi Peter	set Judy Asar	+1.7
28	12-16	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Emma Colombari	blk Ava Grevengoed	+2.1
29	12-17	NIU	NIU×4	Attack err	Judy Asar		+1.7
30	12-18	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Autumn Flynn		+1.3
31	13-18	NIU	UIC	Serve err	NIU server		+0.6
32	13-19	UIC	NIU	Attack err	Tamara Kisic	set Judy Asar	+0.9
33	13-20	NIU	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.7
34	14-20	NIU	UIC	Attack err	Delaney Steers	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.3
35	14-21	UIC	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.5
36	14-22	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Gabi Peter		+0.3
37	15-22	NIU	UIC	Kill	Ava Young		+0.1
38	15-23	UIC	NIU	Kill	Kiana Shields	set Kylie Schulze	+0.1
39	16-23	NIU	UIC	Attack err	Katie Pahl	blk Sasha Pellettieri, Jillian Gibbons	+0.0
40	16-24	UIC	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.1
41	16-25	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Emma Colombari		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, UIC first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.