FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayHORIZON

3:0

HomeNEC

NIU def. Chicago St. 3–0

(25-9, 25-11, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NIU	25	25	25	3
CHI ST	9	11	17	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CHI ST above 50 · NIU below

Biggest swing: 0.0% to Chicago St. — set 2, NIU 6-8 CHI ST. Chicago St. ace on Team. CHI ST win probability 0% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NIU 99.9%0.1% CHI ST

NIU wins

3-0

88.9%

3-1

10.3%

3-2

0.8%

Chicago St. wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.0%

3-2

0.1%

NIU break %: 57.1% vs this opp
CHI ST break %: 33.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
CHI ST serverAce+0.0%
Chicago St. ace on Team
Set 2 · NIU 6-8 CHI ST · CHI ST 0% → 0%
02
Naomi DowdAttack error+0.0%
Attack error by Naomi Dowd
Set 2 · NIU 6-7 CHI ST · CHI ST 0% → 0%
03
NIU serverAce+0.0%
NIU ace on Team
Set 2 · NIU 8-8 CHI ST · NIU 100% → 100%
04
Rylea AlvinKill+0.0%
Kill by Rylea Alvin (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 2 · NIU 7-8 CHI ST · NIU 100% → 100%
05
Nina MitchellAttack error+0.0%
Nina Mitchell stuffed by Rylea Alvin & Delaney Steers
Set 2 · NIU 9-8 CHI ST · NIU 100% → 100%
06
Ava GrevengoedAttack error+0.0%
Attack error by Ava Grevengoed
Set 2 · NIU 6-6 CHI ST · CHI ST 0% → 0%
07
Katie PahlKill+0.0%
Kill by Katie Pahl (set by Charlotte Gramzow)
Set 1 · NIU 1-0 CHI ST · NIU 100% → 100%
08
Katie PahlKill+0.0%
Kill by Katie Pahl (set by Viktoria Djukic)
Set 2 · NIU 10-8 CHI ST · NIU 100% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

NIUaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Katie PahlOH	3	12	1	19	.579	0	0	2	5	0	1	2	2	14
3Ava GrevengoedOH	3	8	3	24	.208	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
9Delaney SteersOH	3	5	1	9	.444	0	3	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
15Autumn FlynnMB	3	5	0	9	.556	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	8
8Rylea AlvinMB	3	3	1	7	.286	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
6Viktoria DjukicS	3	0	0	1	.000	20	2	2	9	0	0	2	1	3
14Naomi DowdOH	3	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
18Charlotte GramzowL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	2	2	12	0	0	0	0	2
4Kiana ShieldsMB	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Kylie SchulzeS	3	0	0	0	–	10	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
16Lilly AbneyOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
21Charizma LoftonOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
12Aiden LightburnMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		38	8	79	.380	36	8	11	35	1	1	14	8	75

Chicago St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
8Kristine BakhadS	3	4	1	8	.375	9	0	1	5	0	1	1	5
11Nayella GeorgeOH	3	3	6	21	-.143	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
2Camryn McCollumOH	3	3	2	11	.091	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
3Graci LittlejohnMB	3	3	5	11	-.182	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3
4Jenesis PerrinMB	3	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
1Rayon ThigpenMB	2	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Skye RileyOH	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	0	7	2	0	0	1
17Hailee CollinsS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
9Nina MitchellOH	2	1	5	11	-.364	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	1
7Reece MazzierL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0
10Eliza CovrigL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
6Tenese ButtryDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		16	21	75	-.067	15	1	2	28	8	1	1	37

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 NIU · CHI ST 5

Set 1

25-9

Longest run 8 NIUCHI ST 2

Set 2

25-11

Longest run 7 NIUCHI ST 5

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 6 NIUCHI ST 4

Bars above the line = Chicago St. leads, below = NIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

NIU

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	77%17/22
2	100%6/6	50%6/12
3	100%4/4	67%8/12
4	100%4/4	56%5/9
5	44%4/9	33%2/6
6	80%4/5	69%9/13
All	74%28/38	64%47/74

Chicago St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	27%6/22	17%1/6
2	83%5/6	40%4/10
3	31%4/13	0%0/5
4	50%4/8	0%0/4
5	36%4/11	50%4/8
6	29%4/14	20%1/5
All	36%27/74	26%10/38

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

112 rallies

Rally log

#	NIU-CHI ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NIU	NIU×8	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.0
2	2-0	NIU	NIU×8	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
3	3-0	NIU	NIU×8	Kill	Katie Pahl		+0.0
4	4-0	NIU	NIU×8	Ace	NIU server	aced Skye Riley	+0.0
5	5-0	NIU	NIU×8	Ace	NIU server	aced Skye Riley	+0.0
6	6-0	NIU	NIU×8	Attack err	Nayella George	blk Rylea Alvin, Katie Pahl	+0.0
7	7-0	NIU	NIU×8	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
8	8-0	NIU	NIU×8	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
9	8-1	NIU	CHI ST	Attack err	Katie Pahl		+0.0
10	9-1	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
11	9-2	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
12	10-2	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
13	10-3	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
14	11-3	CHI ST	NIU×4	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
15	12-3	NIU	NIU×4	Bad set	Kristine Bakhad		+0.0
16	13-3	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.0
17	14-3	NIU	NIU×4	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
18	14-4	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
19	15-4	CHI ST	NIU	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
20	16-4	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.0
21	16-5	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
22	17-5	CHI ST	NIU×3	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
23	18-5	NIU	NIU×3	Ace	NIU server	aced Eliza Covrig	+0.0
24	19-5	NIU	NIU×3	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.0
25	19-6	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
26	19-7	CHI ST	CHI ST	Bad set	Viktoria Djukic		+0.0
27	20-7	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
28	21-7	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.0
29	21-8	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
30	22-8	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Aiden Lightburn	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
31	23-8	NIU	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
32	23-9	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
33	24-9	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
34	25-9	NIU	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	CHI ST	NIU	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
2	2-0	NIU	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
3	2-1	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
4	3-1	CHI ST	NIU	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.0
5	3-2	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
6	4-2	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
7	5-2	NIU	NIU	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
8	5-3	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
9	6-3	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
10	6-4	NIU	CHI ST×5	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
11	6-5	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Delaney Steers	blk Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
12	6-6	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+0.0
13	6-7	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Attack err	Naomi Dowd		+0.0
14	6-8	CHI ST	CHI ST×5	Ace	CHI ST server	aced Team	+0.0
15	7-8	CHI ST	NIU×6	Kill	Rylea Alvin	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
16	8-8	NIU	NIU×6	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
17	9-8	NIU	NIU×6	Attack err	Nina Mitchell	blk Rylea Alvin, Delaney Steers	+0.0
18	10-8	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
19	11-8	NIU	NIU×6	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.0
20	12-8	NIU	NIU×6	Attack err	Nayella George	blk Katie Pahl, Rylea Alvin	+0.0
21	12-9	NIU	CHI ST	Attack err	Rylea Alvin		+0.0
22	13-9	CHI ST	NIU×7	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.0
23	14-9	NIU	NIU×7	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.0
24	15-9	NIU	NIU×7	Bad set	Hailee Collins		+0.0
25	16-9	NIU	NIU×7	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
26	17-9	NIU	NIU×7	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
27	18-9	NIU	NIU×7	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn	blk Katie Pahl	+0.0
28	19-9	NIU	NIU×7	Attack err	Skye Riley		+0.0
29	19-10	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Hailee Collins	+0.0
30	20-10	CHI ST	NIU×5	Kill	Lilly Abney	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
31	21-10	NIU	NIU×5	Ace	NIU server	aced Reece Mazzier	+0.0
32	22-10	NIU	NIU×5	Ace	NIU server	aced Reece Mazzier	+0.0
33	23-10	NIU	NIU×5	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.0
34	24-10	NIU	NIU×5	Attack err	Nayella George	blk Autumn Flynn, Lilly Abney	+0.0
35	24-11	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
36	25-11	CHI ST	NIU	Bad set	Reece Mazzier		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NIU	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Rylea Alvin	+0.0
2	1-1	NIU	CHI ST×4	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
3	1-2	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Graci Littlejohn	+0.0
4	1-3	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Hailee Collins	+0.0
5	1-4	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Hailee Collins	+0.0
6	2-4	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Charlotte Gramzow	+0.0
7	2-5	NIU	CHI ST	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+0.0
8	3-5	CHI ST	NIU×6	Bad set	Nayella George		+0.0
9	4-5	NIU	NIU×6	Bad set	Hailee Collins		+0.0
10	5-5	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
11	6-5	NIU	NIU×6	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
12	7-5	NIU	NIU×6	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.0
13	8-5	NIU	NIU×6	Attack err	Nina Mitchell	blk Autumn Flynn, Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
14	8-6	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Hailee Collins	+0.0
15	9-6	CHI ST	NIU	Attack err	Jenesis Perrin	blk Autumn Flynn, Ava Grevengoed	+0.0
16	9-7	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
17	10-7	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
18	10-8	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
19	10-9	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
20	11-9	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Naomi Dowd	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
21	12-9	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.0
22	12-10	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
23	13-10	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
24	14-10	NIU	NIU	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.0
25	14-11	NIU	CHI ST	Attack err	Ava Grevengoed		+0.0
26	14-12	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Kristine Bakhad	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
27	15-12	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
28	15-13	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Hailee Collins	+0.0
29	16-13	CHI ST	NIU×3	Kill	Ava Grevengoed	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
30	17-13	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+0.0
31	18-13	NIU	NIU×3	Attack err	Nina Mitchell	blk Viktoria Djukic, Autumn Flynn	+0.0
32	18-14	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
33	19-14	CHI ST	NIU	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
34	20-14	NIU	NIU	Kill	Delaney Steers	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
35	20-15	NIU	CHI ST	Attack err	Kiana Shields		+0.0
36	21-15	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Autumn Flynn	set Kylie Schulze	+0.0
37	22-15	NIU	NIU	Ace	NIU server	aced Team	+0.0
38	22-16	NIU	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.0
39	23-16	CHI ST	NIU	Serve err	CHI ST server		+0.0
40	24-16	NIU	NIU	Kill	Charizma Lofton	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0
41	24-17	NIU	CHI ST	Serve err	NIU server		+0.0
42	25-17	CHI ST	NIU	Kill	Katie Pahl	set Viktoria Djukic	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, NIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.