Win probability
Biggest swing: 3.7% to NIU — set 1, NIU 15-14 SIUE. Point NIU (not logged in NCAA feed). SIUE win probability 44% → 40%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
NIU wins
SIUE wins
- NIU break %
- 44.2% vs this opp
- SIUE break %
- 42.8% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.7%
Point NIU (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · NIU 15-14 SIUE · NIU 56% → 60%
- 02Delaney SteersKill+3.6%
Kill by Delaney Steers (set by Kylie Schulze)
Set 1 · NIU 16-14 SIUE · NIU 60% → 63%
- 03Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.5%
Point NIU (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · NIU 14-14 SIUE · NIU 53% → 56%
- 04Kiana ShieldsKill+3.4%
Kill by Kiana Shields (set by Autumn Flynn)
Set 1 · NIU 18-15 SIUE · NIU 64% → 67%
- 05Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.2%
Point NIU (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · NIU 13-14 SIUE · NIU 49% → 53%
- 06Ava GrevengoedAttack error+3.2%
Attack error by Ava Grevengoed
Set 1 · NIU 10-12 SIUE · SIUE 46% → 49%
- 07Teagan SullivanKill+3.2%
Kill by Teagan Sullivan (set by Ally Hughes)
Set 1 · NIU 10-11 SIUE · SIUE 43% → 46%
- 08SIUEAce+3.1%
SIUE ace on Charlotte Gramzow
Set 1 · NIU 10-13 SIUE · SIUE 49% → 52%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 9 | 3 | 27 | .222 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 10.5 | |
| 3 | 8 | 2 | 20 | .300 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 10.5 | |
| 3 | 8 | 4 | 18 | .222 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| 3 | 9 | 3 | 25 | .240 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 9.5 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 3.5 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 8 | 0 | 14 | .571 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .200 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 47 | 13 | 115 | .296 | 44 | 2 | 10 | 53 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 75 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 25 | -.040 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 6.5 | |
| 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 | .167 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 5.5 | |
| 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 | .095 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .333 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | .000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | .286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | .333 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team totals | 30 | 16 | 107 | .131 | 29 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 57 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
25-18
Set 2
25-19
Set 3
25-20
Bars above the line = SIUE leads, below = NIU leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
NIU
No clean sets to split.
SIUE
No clean sets to split.
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
132 rallies
| # | NIU-SIUE | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Vienna Elliott | +1.9 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | SIUE | NIU | Attack err | Vienna Elliott | +1.8 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | NIU | SIUE | Serve err | NIU | +1.9 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Charlotte Gramzow | +1.9 |
| 5 | 2-3 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Kennedy Pike | set Paige Bernstein | +2.0 |
| 6 | 3-3 | NIU | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.9 | |||
| 7 | 4-3 | NIU | NIU×3 | Attack err | Maddie Determan | +2.5 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | NIU | NIU×3 | Attack err | Georgia Bresnahan | +2.5 | |
| 9 | 5-4 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Ashlyn Schulze | set Ally Hughes | +1.9 |
| 10 | 6-4 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +2.0 |
| 11 | 6-5 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Sophie Robinson | set Ally Hughes | +1.9 |
| 12 | 7-5 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Rylea Alvin | set Kylie Schulze | +2.0 |
| 13 | 7-6 | NIU | SIUE | Serve err | NIU | +2.0 | |
| 14 | 8-6 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Rylea Alvin | +2.1 | |
| 15 | 8-7 | NIU | SIUE | Attack err | Katie Pahl | +2.0 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | SIUE | NIU | Attack err | Georgia Bresnahan | +2.1 | |
| 17 | 9-8 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Kennedy Pike | +2.1 | |
| 18 | 9-9 | SIUE | SIUE | Kill | Georgia Bresnahan | set Ashlyn Schulze | +2.9 |
| 19 | 10-9 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.3 |
| 20 | 10-10 | NIU | SIUE×5 | Serve err | NIU | +2.3 | |
| 21 | 10-11 | SIUE | SIUE×5 | Kill | Teagan Sullivan | set Ally Hughes | +3.2 |
| 22 | 10-12 | SIUE | SIUE×5 | Attack err | Ava Grevengoed | +3.2 | |
| 23 | 10-13 | SIUE | SIUE×5 | Ace | SIUE | aced Charlotte Gramzow | +3.1 |
| 24–29 | 15-14 | NIU 5 · SIUE | NCAA feed gap6 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +12.2 | |||
| 30 | 16-14 | NIU | NIU×6 | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Kylie Schulze | +3.6 |
| 31 | 16-15 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Maddie Determan | set Ally Hughes | +2.6 |
| 32 | 17-15 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Kylie Schulze | +2.9 |
| 33 | 18-15 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Autumn Flynn | +3.4 |
| 34 | 18-16 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Maddie Determan | set Ally Hughes | +2.2 |
| 35 | 19-16 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Kylie Schulze | +2.7 |
| 36 | 20-16 | NIU | NIU | Attack err | Sophie Robinson | +2.8 | |
| 37 | 20-17 | NIU | SIUE | Blocked | Delaney Steers | blk Vienna Elliott, Maddie Determan | +1.5 |
| 38–40 | 22-18 | NIU 2 · SIUE | NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.9 | |||
| 41 | 23-18 | NIU | NIU×5 | Blocked | Georgia Bresnahan | blk Autumn Flynn, Katie Pahl | +1.6 |
| 42 | 24-18 | NIU | NIU×5 | Attack err | Vienna Elliott | +0.6 | |
| 43 | 25-18 | NIU | NIU×5 | Blocked | Georgia Bresnahan | blk Katie Pahl, Autumn Flynn | +0.1 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | SIUE | NIU | Attack err | Katie Pahl | +1.7 | |
| 2 | 2-0 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Charlotte Gramzow | +2.2 |
| 3 | 2-1 | NIU | SIUE | Serve err | NIU | +1.6 | |
| 4 | 3-1 | NIU | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.7 | |||
| 5 | 3-2 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Maddie Determan | set Ally Hughes | +1.7 |
| 6 | 4-2 | NIU | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.7 | |||
| 7 | 4-3 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Sophie Robinson | set Paige Bernstein | +1.7 |
| 8 | 5-3 | SIUE | NIU | Serve err | SIUE | +1.8 | |
| 9 | 6-3 | NIU | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.2 | |||
| 10 | 6-4 | NIU | SIUE×4 | Kill | Paige Bernstein | +1.6 | |
| 11 | 6-5 | SIUE | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.3 | |||
| 12 | 6-6 | SIUE | SIUE×4 | Kill | Georgia Bresnahan | set Paige Bernstein | +2.5 |
| 13–14 | 7-7 | NIU · SIUE | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.6 | |||
| 15 | 8-7 | NIU | NIU×4 | Serve err | NIU | +2.6 | |
| 16 | 9-7 | NIU | NIU×4 | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.6 |
| 17 | 10-7 | NIU | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.4 | |||
| 18 | 10-8 | NIU | SIUE | Attack err | Katie Pahl | +1.7 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | SIUE | NIU×3 | Serve err | SIUE | +1.9 | |
| 20 | 12-8 | NIU | NIU×3 | Attack err | Sophie Robinson | +2.2 | |
| 21 | 13-8 | NIU | NIU×3 | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +1.9 |
| 22 | 13-9 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Sophie Robinson | set Ally Hughes | +1.2 |
| 23 | 13-10 | SIUE | SIUE | Attack err | Katie Pahl | +2.0 | |
| 24 | 14-10 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +1.8 |
| 25 | 15-10 | NIU | NIU | Attack err | Georgia Bresnahan | +1.9 | |
| 26 | 15-11 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Sophie Robinson | +1.2 | |
| 27–28 | 16-12 | NIU · SIUE | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.1 | |||
| 29 | 17-12 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +1.9 |
| 30 | 17-13 | NIU | SIUE×3 | Kill | Georgia Bresnahan | set Paige Bernstein | +1.1 |
| 31 | 17-14 | SIUE | SIUE×3 | Kill | Georgia Bresnahan | set Kinley Quast | +2.0 |
| 32 | 17-15 | SIUE | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.6 | |||
| 33 | 18-15 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +2.4 |
| 34 | 19-15 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Delaney Steers | set Charlotte Gramzow | +2.6 |
| 35 | 19-16 | NIU | SIUE | Serve err | NIU | +1.5 | |
| 36 | 20-16 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.0 |
| 37 | 20-17 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Maddie Determan | set Ally Hughes | +1.4 |
| 38 | 21-17 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Viktoria Djukic | +2.0 |
| 39 | 22-17 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | +1.7 | |
| 40 | 22-18 | NIU | SIUE | Attack err | Autumn Flynn | +0.7 | |
| 41 | 23-18 | SIUE | NIU | Serve err | SIUE | +1.2 | |
| 42–43 | 24-19 | NIU · SIUE | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.4 | |||
| 44 | 25-19 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Kiana Shields | set Kylie Schulze | +0.3 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | set Viktoria Djukic | +1.4 |
| 2 | 1-1 | NIU | SIUE | Serve err | NIU | +1.1 | |
| 3–4 | 2-2 | NIU · SIUE | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.3 | |||
| 5 | 3-2 | NIU | NIU×3 | Serve err | NIU | +1.4 | |
| 6 | 4-2 | NIU | NIU×3 | Kill | Ava Grevengoed | +1.4 | |
| 7–12 | 8-4 | NIU 4 · SIUE 2 | NCAA feed gap6 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +2.8 | |||
| 13 | 9-4 | NIU | NIU×5 | Attack err | Sophie Robinson | +1.1 | |
| 14 | 9-5 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Sophie Robinson | set Ally Hughes | +0.7 |
| 15 | 10-5 | SIUE | NIU | Attack err | Sophie Robinson | +0.9 | |
| 16 | 11-5 | NIU | NIU | Kill | Maddie Determan | set Ally Hughes | +0.9 |
| 17 | 11-6 | SIUE | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.6 | |||
| 18 | 11-7 | SIUE | SIUE | Serve err | SIUE | +1.0 | |
| 19 | 12-7 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Delaney Steers | +0.9 | |
| 20 | 12-8 | SIUE | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.7 | |||
| 21 | 13-8 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Viktoria Djukic | set Delaney Steers | +0.9 |
| 22 | 13-9 | SIUE | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.7 | |||
| 23 | 14-9 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Rylea Alvin | +0.9 | |
| 24–26 | 16-10 | NIU 2 · SIUE | NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.1 | |||
| 27 | 16-11 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Kennedy Pike | +0.5 | |
| 28 | 17-11 | SIUE | NIU | Attack err | Kennedy Pike | +0.7 | |
| 29 | 18-11 | NIU | NIU | Serve err | NIU | +0.6 | |
| 30–32 | 20-12 | NIU 2 · SIUE | NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.5 | |||
| 33 | 20-13 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Sophie Robinson | +0.1 | |
| 34 | 21-13 | SIUE | NIU | Serve err | SIUE | +0.2 | |
| 35 | 21-14 | NIU | SIUE | Serve err | NIU | +0.1 | |
| 36 | 21-15 | SIUE | SIUE | Attack err | Katie Pahl | +0.2 | |
| 37 | 22-15 | SIUE | NIU | Attack err | Georgia Bresnahan | +0.3 | |
| 38 | 22-16 | NIU | SIUE | Kill | Kennedy Pike | set Paige Bernstein | +0.1 |
| 39 | 23-16 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | set Kylie Schulze | +0.2 |
| 40 | 23-17 | SIUE | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.1 | |||
| 41 | 24-17 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Katie Pahl | +0.1 | |
| 42 | 24-18 | NIU | SIUE×3 | Attack err | Katie Pahl | · | |
| 43–44 | 24-20 | SIUE 2 | NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +0.3 | |||
| 45 | 25-20 | SIUE | NIU | Kill | Autumn Flynn | set Kylie Schulze | +0.3 |
Score shown after each rally, NIU first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).