FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayACC

3:0

HomeATLANTIC-10

North Carolina def. Davidson 3–0

(25-22, 25-17, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNC	25	25	25	3
DAVID	22	17	22	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

DAVID above 50 · UNC below

Biggest swing: 2.7% to Davidson — set 1, UNC 19-20 DAVID. Kill by Meile Songaila (set by Kinsey Smith). DAVID win probability 10% → 12%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNC 92.3%7.7% DAVID

North Carolina wins

3-0

48.9%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

12.3%

Davidson wins

3-0

1.0%

3-1

2.3%

3-2

4.4%

UNC break %: 46.9% vs this opp
DAVID break %: 36.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Meile SongailaKill+2.7%
Kill by Meile Songaila (set by Kinsey Smith)
Set 1 · UNC 19-20 DAVID · DAVID 10% → 12%
02
Mia CompasAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Mia Compas
Set 1 · UNC 21-20 DAVID · UNC 89% → 92%
03
Laynie SmithKill+2.1%
Kill by Laynie Smith (set by Julia Bohlinger)
Set 1 · UNC 22-20 DAVID · UNC 92% → 94%
04
DAVID serverAce+2.1%
Davidson ace on Bridget Malone
Set 1 · UNC 19-19 DAVID · DAVID 8% → 10%
05
Chelsea ThorpeKill+1.9%
Kill by Chelsea Thorpe (set by Zoe Behrendt)
Set 1 · UNC 24-22 DAVID · UNC 93% → 95%
06
Safi HamptonKill+1.7%
Kill by Safi Hampton (set by Emily Bobbitt)
Set 1 · UNC 20-20 DAVID · UNC 88% → 89%
07
Meile SongailaAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Meile Songaila
Set 1 · UNC 15-15 DAVID · UNC 89% → 90%
08
UNC serverAce+1.7%
North Carolina ace on Elena Garcia-Guerrios
Set 1 · UNC 17-16 DAVID · UNC 90% → 92%

Official NCAA box

Box score

North Carolinaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
77Chelsea ThorpeOPP	3	11	2	18	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	12
22Safi HamptonOH	3	9	6	24	.125	0	1	1	14	0	0	0	0	10
21Jackie TaylorMB	3	4	1	10	.300	1	2	4	0	0	2	0	2	8
10Bridget MaloneOH	3	6	2	23	.174	1	0	0	7	6	0	0	0	6
3Lauren SchutterMB	3	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	6
1Zoe BehrendtS	3	0	0	0	–	17	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
23Laynie SmithOPP	3	6	0	16	.375	0	0	0	6	0	0	4	2	8
14Emily BobbittS	3	1	0	1	1.000	15	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	3
18Carly MarkhamL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
6Julia BohlingerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
4Erin CurtisOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33Hailey PearceOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	12	98	.286	38	6	6	46	6	2	12	8	75

Davidsonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Ariyana JohnsonOH	3	13	6	34	.206	0	1	0	5	0	1	2	2	16
19Elena Garcia-GuerriosOH	3	8	6	31	.065	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	9
15Meile SongailaOH	3	5	5	22	.000	0	3	0	8	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
5Ngodoo HarrisOH	3	1	0	5	.200	1	0	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
3Kinsey SmithS	3	0	0	2	.000	21	1	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
14Mia CompasMB	2	3	4	9	-.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
12Ellie OcampoOH	3	3	0	7	.429	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Ylame DsamouS	3	1	0	3	.333	5	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1
1Adlee GrissettL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	5	0	1	17	3	0	0	0	1
13Brooke BriscoeDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
20Melanie TillesMB	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		35	22	117	.111	33	6	4	44	6	1	10	6	61

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 UNC · DAVID 4

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 3 UNCDAVID 3

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 5 UNCDAVID 3

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 3 UNCDAVID 4

Bars above the line = Davidson leads, below = North Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

North Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	22%2/9
2	58%7/12	56%9/16
3	78%7/9	46%6/13
4	55%6/11	50%6/12
5	50%6/12	50%6/12
6	100%6/6	45%5/11
All	65%41/63	47%34/73

Davidson

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	33%4/12
2	54%7/13	42%5/12
3	50%7/14	22%2/9
4	67%6/9	30%3/10
5	43%6/14	57%8/14
6	67%6/9	0%0/6
All	53%39/73	35%22/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

136 rallies

Rally log

#	UNC-DAVID	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	DAVID	DAVID×3	Ace	DAVID server	aced Bridget Malone	+1.0
2	0-2	DAVID	DAVID×3	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+1.2
3	0-3	DAVID	DAVID×3	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Adlee Grissett	+1.3
4	1-3	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.8
5	2-3	UNC	UNC	Ace	UNC server	aced Adlee Grissett	+1.1
6	2-4	UNC	DAVID	Serve err	UNC server		+0.9
7	2-5	DAVID	DAVID	Attack err	Chelsea Thorpe		+1.4
8	3-5	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios		+0.8
9	4-5	UNC	UNC	Ace	UNC server	aced Adlee Grissett	+1.2
10	4-6	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Ngodoo Harris	+1.0
11	4-7	DAVID	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+1.5
12	5-7	DAVID	UNC	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.9
13	5-8	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Mia Compas	set Kinsey Smith	+1.1
14	5-9	DAVID	DAVID	Ace	DAVID server	aced Bridget Malone	+1.6
15	6-9	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Carly Markham	+0.9
16	7-9	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Meile Songaila	blk Laynie Smith, Lauren Schutter	+1.4
17	7-10	UNC	DAVID×3	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+1.2
18	7-11	DAVID	DAVID×3	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+1.7
19	7-12	DAVID	DAVID×3	Ace	DAVID server	aced Bridget Malone	+1.7
20	8-12	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.9
21	9-12	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Mia Compas		+1.4
22	9-13	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Kinsey Smith	+1.3
23	10-13	DAVID	UNC×3	Kill	Emily Bobbitt	set Bridget Malone	+1.0
24	11-13	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Safi Hampton		+1.6
25	12-13	UNC	UNC×3	Ace	UNC server	aced Adlee Grissett	+1.6
26	12-14	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Adlee Grissett	+1.4
27	13-14	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+1.1
28	13-15	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+1.5
29	14-15	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios		+1.2
30	15-15	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Meile Songaila		+1.7
31	15-16	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+1.4
32	16-16	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+1.3
33	17-16	UNC	UNC	Ace	UNC server	aced Elena Garcia-Guerrios	+1.7
34	17-17	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+1.3
35	18-17	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios		+1.3
36	19-17	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+1.6
37	19-18	UNC	DAVID×3	Kill	Mia Compas	set Kinsey Smith	+1.1
38	19-19	DAVID	DAVID×3	Ace	DAVID server	aced Bridget Malone	+2.1
39	19-20	DAVID	DAVID×3	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Kinsey Smith	+2.7
40	20-20	DAVID	UNC×3	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+1.7
41	21-20	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Mia Compas		+2.5
42	22-20	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Julia Bohlinger	+2.1
43	22-21	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Mia Compas	set Kinsey Smith	+1.2
44	23-21	DAVID	UNC	Serve err	DAVID server		+1.6
45	23-22	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Adlee Grissett	+1.2
46	24-22	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+1.9
47	25-22	UNC	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Carly Markham	+1.2
Set 2
1	0-1	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Kinsey Smith	+0.5
2	1-1	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+0.4
3	2-1	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+0.6
4	2-2	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Adlee Grissett	+0.4
5	3-2	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.4
6	3-3	UNC	DAVID	Serve err	UNC server		+0.5
7	4-3	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Meile Songaila	blk Chelsea Thorpe, Lauren Schutter	+0.4
8	5-3	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Mia Compas	blk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith	+0.5
9	5-4	UNC	DAVID×3	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Kinsey Smith	+0.4
10	5-5	DAVID	DAVID×3	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+0.7
11	5-6	DAVID	DAVID×3	Ace	DAVID server	aced Bridget Malone	+0.8
12	6-6	DAVID	UNC×5	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.5
13	7-6	UNC	UNC×5	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	blk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith	+0.7
14	8-6	UNC	UNC×5	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.6
15	9-6	UNC	UNC×5	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.5
16	10-6	UNC	UNC×5	Kill	Lauren Schutter	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.4
17	10-7	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Adlee Grissett		+0.3
18	11-7	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.3
19	12-7	UNC	UNC	Bad set	Kinsey Smith		+0.3
20	12-8	UNC	DAVID	Bad set	Emily Bobbitt		+0.2
21	13-8	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Carly Markham	+0.2
22	13-9	UNC	DAVID	Attack err	Safi Hampton	blk Ariyana Johnson	+0.2
23	14-9	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
24	15-9	UNC	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
25	15-10	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+0.1
26	16-10	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Mia Compas		+0.1
27	17-10	UNC	UNC	Ace	UNC server	aced Team	+0.1
28	17-11	UNC	DAVID	Serve err	UNC server		+0.1
29	18-11	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Meile Songaila	blk Chelsea Thorpe, Lauren Schutter	+0.1
30	18-12	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ylame Dsamou	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.1
31	19-12	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.1
32	19-13	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.1
33	20-13	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.1
34	20-14	UNC	DAVID	Attack err	Safi Hampton	blk Ngodoo Harris, Ellie Ocampo	+0.0
35	21-14	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.1
36	21-15	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+0.0
37	22-15	DAVID	UNC	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.1
38	22-16	UNC	DAVID	Attack err	Bridget Malone	blk Ngodoo Harris, Ariyana Johnson	+0.0
39	23-16	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
40	24-16	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+0.0
41	24-17	UNC	DAVID	Serve err	UNC server		+0.0
42	25-17	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	DAVID	DAVID	Attack err	Safi Hampton		+0.3
2	1-1	DAVID	UNC×3	Kill	Jackie Taylor	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.2
3	2-1	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Jackie Taylor	+0.3
4	3-1	UNC	UNC×3	Bad set	Kinsey Smith		+0.2
5	3-2	UNC	DAVID×4	Bad set	Zoe Behrendt		+0.2
6	3-3	DAVID	DAVID×4	Attack err	Chelsea Thorpe	blk Meile Songaila, Ngodoo Harris	+0.3
7	3-4	DAVID	DAVID×4	Ace	DAVID server	aced Bridget Malone	+0.4
8	3-5	DAVID	DAVID×4	Attack err	Jackie Taylor		+0.4
9	4-5	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
10	5-5	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios		+0.3
11	5-6	UNC	DAVID	Serve err	UNC server		+0.3
12	5-7	DAVID	DAVID	Attack err	Bridget Malone		+0.4
13	6-7	DAVID	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
14	7-7	UNC	UNC×3	Ace	UNC server	aced Meile Songaila	+0.4
15	8-7	UNC	UNC×3	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+0.3
16	8-8	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Adlee Grissett	+0.3
17	9-8	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	blk Laynie Smith, Lauren Schutter	+0.2
18	9-9	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ariyana Johnson	set Kinsey Smith	+0.3
19	9-10	DAVID	DAVID	Attack err	Safi Hampton	blk Kinsey Smith, Melanie Tilles	+0.4
20	10-10	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.3
21	10-11	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Kinsey Smith	+0.3
22	11-11	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.3
23	11-12	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Kinsey Smith	+0.4
24	12-12	DAVID	UNC×3	Kill	Safi Hampton	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
25	13-12	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.4
26	14-12	UNC	UNC×3	Bad set	Kinsey Smith		+0.4
27	14-13	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ngodoo Harris	set Kinsey Smith	+0.3
28	14-14	DAVID	DAVID	Attack err	Safi Hampton	blk Ngodoo Harris, Ariyana Johnson	+0.5
29	15-14	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
30	16-14	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Ariyana Johnson		+0.4
31	16-15	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Meile Songaila	set Kinsey Smith	+0.3
32	17-15	DAVID	UNC×3	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.3
33	18-15	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.3
34	19-15	UNC	UNC×3	Kill	Lauren Schutter		+0.2
35	19-16	UNC	DAVID×3	Serve err	UNC server		+0.1
36	19-17	DAVID	DAVID×3	Attack err	Lauren Schutter		+0.3
37	19-18	DAVID	DAVID×3	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.5
38	20-18	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Bridget Malone	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.4
39	20-19	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Ellie Ocampo	+0.4
40	20-20	DAVID	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.7
41	21-20	DAVID	UNC	Kill	Laynie Smith	set Emily Bobbitt	+0.5
42	22-20	UNC	UNC	Attack err	Melanie Tilles	blk Jackie Taylor	+0.7
43	22-21	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Elena Garcia-Guerrios	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.4
44	23-21	DAVID	UNC	Serve err	DAVID server		+0.5
45	23-22	UNC	DAVID	Kill	Ellie Ocampo	set Ylame Dsamou	+0.4
46	24-22	DAVID	UNC	Attack err	Meile Songaila	blk Jackie Taylor	+0.6
47	25-22	UNC	UNC	Kill	Chelsea Thorpe	set Zoe Behrendt	+0.4

Score shown after each rally, North Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.