Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026

Davidson def. Charlotte 3–1

Davidson beat visiting Charlotte 3-1 (25-17, 13-25, 25-22, 25-13) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026. Davidson's Ariyana Johnson led with 19 kills, and Brooke Briscoe added 16 digs.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set1234Sets
CHAR172522131
DAVID251325253

Win probability

Davidson above 50 · Charlotte below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.4% DAVIDrally 165 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.4% to Davidson — set 3, CHAR 22-24 DAVID. Attack error by Clara Briley. DAVID win probability 78% → 86%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CHAR 18.9%81.1% DAVID

Charlotte wins

3-0
3.0%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
9.6%

Davidson wins

3-0
32.7%
3-1
30.5%
3-2
17.9%
CHAR break %
39.1% vs this opp
DAVID break %
45.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Clara BrileyAttack error+7.4%

    Attack error by Clara Briley

    Set 3 · CHAR 22-24 DAVID · DAVID 78% → 86%

  2. 02

    Meile Songaila stuffed by Jovana Antic & Elena Kovacevic

    Set 3 · CHAR 21-21 DAVID · CHAR 21% → 28%

  3. 03

    Kill by Elena Garcia-guerrios (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 3 · CHAR 22-23 DAVID · DAVID 72% → 78%

  4. 04
    Clara BrileyKill+5.4%

    Kill by Clara Briley (set by Harper Hall)

    Set 3 · CHAR 22-22 DAVID · CHAR 23% → 28%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ariyana Johnson (set by Kinsey Smith)

    Set 3 · CHAR 21-22 DAVID · DAVID 72% → 77%

  6. 06

    Ariyana Johnson stuffed by Clara Briley & Sofia Locadia

    Set 3 · CHAR 14-12 DAVID · CHAR 30% → 34%

  7. 07
    Sofia LocadiaAttack error+4.1%

    Attack error by Sofia Locadia

    Set 3 · CHAR 14-14 DAVID · DAVID 68% → 73%

  8. 08
    DavidsonAce+4.0%

    Davidson ace on Chloe Maughan

    Set 3 · CHAR 14-15 DAVID · DAVID 73% → 77%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49419.26300100296.515.5
411645.1110027002112
46215.26700000073.59.5
4005.000301090031.52.5
41114.000000310212
4139-.222000000212
47319.21100010073.510.5
4102.50000000010.51.5
41011.00000000010.51.5
4000–000000000
4000–100930000
4000–200000000
4000–101910000
4000–000500000
4000–000000000
Team totals3719129.14034144362341977
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419737.32401020010.520.5
417946.1740209002120
49728.07111014100010
4628.500000100217
4216.167000000002
4103.33346111100002
43312.00000100111.54.5
4123-.333000001012
4000–011200001
4002.000300400000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–6021600000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals5831145.186566559126588

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 CHAR · DAVID 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 CHARDAVID 5

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 5 CHARDAVID 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 CHARDAVID 5

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 3 CHARDAVID 6

Bars above the line = Davidson leads, below = Charlotte leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Charlotte

SlotSideout %Break %
1
25%2/8
0%0/1
2
33%2/6
67%4/6
3
50%2/4
50%2/4
4
67%2/3
0%0/2
5
67%2/3
0%0/2
6
100%1/1
0%0/2
All
44%11/25
35%6/17

Davidson

SlotSideout %Break %
1
33%2/6
75%6/8
2
50%2/4
67%4/6
3
100%2/2
50%2/4
4
100%2/2
33%1/3
5
100%2/2
33%1/3
6
100%1/1
0%0/1
All
65%11/17
56%14/25

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

165 rallies

#CHAR-DAVIDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1DAVIDDAVID×4AceDavidsonaced Gia Mcgrew+1.6
20-2DAVIDDAVID×4KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.5
30-3DAVIDDAVID×4KillElena Garcia-guerrios+1.3
40-4DAVIDDAVID×4KillCayla Weisnerset Kinsey Smith+1.1
51-4DAVIDCHARKillClara Briley+0.8
62-4CHARCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+1.3
72-5CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Meile Songaila+1.0
83-5DAVIDCHAR×3BlockedMeile Songailablk Sofia Locadia, Mariam Mushkudiani+1.0
94-5CHARCHAR×3BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Clara Briley, Sofia Locadia+1.6
105-5CHARCHAR×3Attack errMeile Songaila+1.8
115-6CHARDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.3
125-7DAVIDDAVIDKillMelanie Tilles+1.7
136-7DAVIDCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+1.2
146-8CHARDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Brooke Briscoe+1.2
156-9DAVIDDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Brooke Briscoe+1.5
167-9DAVIDCHARAttack errElena Garcia-guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+1.1
177-10CHARDAVIDKillNgodoo Harrisset Ylame Dsamou+1.1
187-11DAVIDDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerriosset Ylame Dsamou+1.3
198-11DAVIDCHARKillGia Mcgrewset Harper Hall+0.9
208-12CHARDAVIDKillMelanie Tilles+1.0
219-12DAVIDCHARServe errDavidson+0.9
229-13CHARDAVID×3Attack errMilan Cannonset Harper Hall+1.0
239-14DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.1
249-15DAVIDDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+0.8
2510-15DAVIDCHAR×4KillMilan Cannonset Harper Hall+0.4
2611-15CHARCHAR×4KillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+0.9
2712-15CHARCHAR×4Attack errAriyana Johnson+1.2
2813-15CHARCHAR×4KillClara Brileyset Chloe Maughan+1.7
2913-16CHARDAVID×5KillAriyana Johnson+1.4
3013-17DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errMariam Mushkudiani+1.5
3113-18DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errMariam Mushkudiani+1.1
3213-19DAVIDDAVID×5AceDavidson+0.7
3313-20DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errClara Briley+0.4
3414-20DAVIDCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+0.2
3514-21CHARDAVIDKillCayla Weisnerset Kinsey Smith+0.3
3614-22DAVIDDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.2
3715-22DAVIDCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall·
3815-23CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnson+0.1
3916-23DAVIDCHARAttack errMelanie Tillesset Ylame Dsamou·
4016-24CHARDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Brooke Briscoe·
4117-24DAVIDCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall·
4217-25CHARDAVIDKillMeile Songaila·
Set 2
11-0CHARCHARBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Milan Cannon, Elena Kovacevic+1.3
22-0CHARCHARKillClara Brileyset Erin Lehman+1.4
32-1CHARDAVIDServe errCharlotte+1.0
43-1DAVIDCHARAttack errMeile Songailaset Brooke Briscoe+1.1
53-2CHARDAVID×3KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+1.0
63-3DAVIDDAVID×3BlockedClara Brileyblk Melanie Tilles, Ariyana Johnson+1.4
73-4DAVIDDAVID×3KillAriyana Johnson+1.3
84-4DAVIDCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Harper Hall+1.0
95-4CHARCHARBlockedMelanie Tillesblk Sofia Locadia+1.5
105-5CHARDAVIDAttack errSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+1.0
116-5DAVIDCHAR×3KillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+1.2
127-5CHARCHAR×3BlockedMeile Songailablk Harper Hall, Sofia Locadia+1.7
138-5CHARCHAR×3KillSofia Locadia+1.7
148-6CHARDAVIDServe errCharlotte+1.1
159-6DAVIDCHARBlockedElena Garcia-guerriosblk Harper Hall, Sofia Locadia+1.3
169-7CHARDAVIDServe errCharlotte+1.1
1710-7DAVIDCHAR×5KillMilan Cannon+1.4
1811-7CHARCHAR×5Attack errCayla Weisner+1.8
1912-7CHARCHAR×5BlockedElena Garcia-guerriosblk Milan Cannon, Elena Kovacevic+1.7
2013-7CHARCHAR×5BlockedNgodoo Harrisblk Gia Mcgrew, Milan Cannon+1.5
2114-7CHARCHAR×5KillMilan Cannon+1.3
2214-8CHARDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerriosset Brooke Briscoe+0.6
2315-8DAVIDCHAR×3KillMilan Cannonset Harper Hall+0.9
2416-8CHAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.0
2517-8CHARCHAR×3BlockedElena Garcia-guerriosblk Milan Cannon, Elena Kovacevic+0.7
2617-9CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.3
2718-9DAVIDCHARAttack errEllie Ocamposet Brooke Briscoe+0.4
2818-10CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.2
2919-10DAVIDCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+0.4
3019-11CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.2
3119-12DAVIDDAVIDBlockedSofia Locadiablk Ellie Ocampo+0.4
3220-12DAVIDCHAR×5KillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+0.5
3321-12CHARCHAR×5BlockedNgodoo Harrisblk Sofia Locadia+0.4
3422-12CHARCHAR×5Attack errElena Garcia-guerrios+0.2
3523-12CHARCHAR×5KillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+0.1
3624-12CHARCHAR×5KillJovana Anticset Harper Hall·
3724-13CHARDAVIDKillEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith·
3825-13DAVIDCHARAttack errAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith·
Set 3
11-0DAVIDCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+2.1
22-0CHARCHARBlockedMeile Songailablk Elena Kovacevic, Sofia Locadia+3.0
32-1CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.0
42-2DAVIDDAVIDAceDavidsonaced Erin Lehman+2.7
53-2DAVIDCHARBad setAriyana Johnson+2.2
63-3CHARDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+2.0
74-3DAVIDCHARServe errDavidson+2.3
84-4CHARDAVIDKillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+2.1
95-4CHAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.3
105-5CHARDAVIDAttack errGia Mcgrewset Kennedy Earls+2.1
116-5DAVIDCHAR×4KillMilan Cannonset Harper Hall+2.4
127-5CHARCHAR×4AceHarper Hallaced Meile Songaila+3.4
138-5CHARCHAR×4KillElena Kovacevicset Harper Hall+3.6
149-5CHARCHAR×4BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Gia Mcgrew, Milan Cannon+3.6
159-6CHARDAVID×4KillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.2
169-7DAVIDDAVID×4KillKinsey Smithset Milan Cannon+3.3
179-8DAVIDDAVID×4KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+3.4
189-9DAVIDDAVID×4KillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.4
1910-9DAVIDCHARServe errDavidson+2.7
2010-10CHARDAVIDAttack errElena Kovacevicset Chloe Maughan+2.5
2110-11DAVIDDAVIDKillNgodoo Harrisset Kinsey Smith+3.4
2211-11DAVIDCHARKillMilan Cannonset Harper Hall+2.6
2312-11CHARCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Harper Hall+3.9
2412-12CHARDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+2.7
2513-12DAVIDCHARBad setKinsey Smith+3.1
2614-12CHARCHARBlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Clara Briley, Sofia Locadia+4.4
2714-13CHARDAVID×5Attack errClara Brileyset Harper Hall+2.9
2814-14DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errSofia Locadia+4.1
2914-15DAVIDDAVID×5AceDavidsonaced Chloe Maughan+4.0
3014-16DAVIDDAVID×5KillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.7
3114-17DAVIDDAVID×5KillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+3.1
3215-17DAVIDCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+2.0
3315-18CHARDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerrios+2.3
3416-18DAVIDCHARAttack errEllie Ocamposet Kinsey Smith+2.1
3517-18CHARCHARBlockedElena Garcia-guerriosblk Harper Hall, Milan Cannon+3.8
3617-19CHARDAVIDKillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+3.2
3718-19DAVIDCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Harper Hall+3.0
3818-20CHARDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Kinsey Smith+3.4
3919-20DAVIDCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Harper Hall+3.2
4019-21CHARDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+3.7
4120-21DAVIDCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+3.3
4221-21CHARCHARBlockedMeile Songailablk Jovana Antic, Elena Kovacevic+6.4
4321-22CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+5.3
4422-22DAVIDCHARKillClara Brileyset Harper Hall+5.4
4522-23CHARDAVID×3KillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+6.3
4622-24DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errClara Briley+7.4
4722-25DAVIDDAVID×3Attack errElena Kovacevic+3.7
Set 4
10-1CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.4
21-1DAVIDCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Harper Hall+1.5
32-1CHARCHARAttack errElena Garcia-guerrios+2.2
42-2CHARDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.6
52-3DAVIDDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+2.1
63-3DAVIDCHARKillElena Kovacevicset Harper Hall+1.6
73-4CHARDAVID×6KillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.5
83-5DAVIDDAVID×6KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.9
93-6DAVIDDAVID×6Attack errClara Briley+1.7
103-7DAVIDDAVID×6AceDavidsonaced Chloe Maughan+1.5
113-8DAVIDDAVID×6KillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith+1.2
123-9DAVIDDAVID×6BlockedClara Brileyblk Elena Garcia-guerrios, Melanie Tilles+1.0
134-9DAVIDCHARKillSofia Locadiaset Dixie Gayden+0.6
145-9CHARCHARBlockedElena Garcia-guerriosblk Mariam Mushkudiani, Sofia Locadia+1.1
155-10CHARDAVID×5Serve errCharlotte+0.9
165-11DAVIDDAVID×5KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+1.0
175-12DAVIDDAVID×5Attack errMariam Mushkudiani+0.7
185-13DAVIDDAVID×5AceDavidsonaced Chloe Maughan+0.5
195-14DAVIDDAVID×5KillMelanie Tillesset Kinsey Smith+0.3
206-14DAVIDCHARKillMariam Mushkudianiset Dixie Gayden+0.2
216-15CHARDAVIDKillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.2
227-15DAVIDCHARServe errDavidson+0.1
238-15CHARCHARBlockedMeile Songailablk Elena Kovacevic, Milan Cannon+0.3
248-16CHARDAVIDKillMeile Songailaset Brooke Briscoe+0.3
25–269-17CHAR · DAVID
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
279-18CHARDAVID×5KillNgodoo Harrisset Kinsey Smith+0.2
289-19DAVIDDAVID×5KillAriyana Johnsonset Kinsey Smith+0.1
299-20DAVIDDAVID×5BlockedMilan Cannonblk Ariyana Johnson, Ngodoo Harris·
309-21DAVIDDAVID×5KillElena Garcia-guerriosset Brooke Briscoe·
319-22DAVIDDAVID×5BlockedElena Kovacevicblk Elena Garcia-guerrios, Ngodoo Harris·
3210-22DAVIDCHAR×3KillElena Kovacevicset Harper Hall·
3311-22CHARCHAR×3BlockedNgodoo Harrisblk Elena Kovacevic, Sofia Locadia·
3412-22CHARCHAR×3BlockedAriyana Johnsonblk Sara Marinkovic, Sofia Locadia·
3512-23CHARDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith·
3612-24DAVIDDAVIDAttack errSofia Locadia·
3713-24DAVIDCHARKillElena Kovacevic·
3813-25CHARDAVIDKillElena Garcia-guerriosset Kinsey Smith·

Score shown after each rally, Charlotte first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).