FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeBIG-EAST

Northwestern def. Georgetown 3–0

(25-23, 25-15, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
NW	25	25	25	3
GTOWN	23	15	17	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

GTOWN above 50 · NW below

Biggest swing: 9.6% to Northwestern — set 1, NW 25-23 GTOWN. Attack error by Katherine McGregor. GTOWN win probability 35% → 25%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NW 58.1%41.9% GTOWN

Northwestern wins

3-0

16.2%

3-1

22.1%

3-2

19.8%

Georgetown wins

3-0

9.4%

3-1

15.4%

3-2

17.1%

NW break %: 41.0% vs this opp
GTOWN break %: 39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Katherine McGregorAttack error+9.6%
Attack error by Katherine McGregor
Set 1 · NW 25-23 GTOWN · NW 65% → 75%
02
Berkeley PloderKill+7.5%
Kill by Berkeley Ploder (set by Natalie Nguyen)
Set 1 · NW 23-23 GTOWN · GTOWN 34% → 42%
03
Mara StiglicKill+6.6%
Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 1 · NW 24-23 GTOWN · NW 58% → 65%
04
Kamryn Lee-CaracciBad set+5.7%
Bad set by Kamryn Lee-Caracci
Set 1 · NW 22-20 GTOWN · NW 62% → 68%
05
Isabella BullingtonKill+5.4%
Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 1 · NW 20-19 GTOWN · NW 56% → 61%
06
Campbell ParisAttack error+4.7%
Campbell Paris stuffed by Katherine McGregor & Kamryn Lee-Caracci
Set 1 · NW 17-18 GTOWN · GTOWN 42% → 47%
07
GTOWN serverService error+4.2%
Georgetown service error
Set 1 · NW 23-21 GTOWN · NW 65% → 69%
08
Mara StiglicAttack error+4.1%
Attack error by Mara Stiglic
Set 1 · NW 16-16 GTOWN · GTOWN 38% → 42%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northwesternaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Isabella BullingtonOH	3	12	3	26	.346	1	3	4	9	1	1	1	1.5	16.5
25Campbell ParisOH	3	8	3	20	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	9.5
17Maya StillwellMB	3	2	1	6	.167	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2.5	4.5
9Hayley SchaafMB	3	3	1	10	.200	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	4
11Ellie StiernagleS	3	2	0	4	.500	30	1	1	6	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Drew WrightL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	6	0	0	0	0	2
12Mara StiglicOH	3	11	4	26	.269	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	12
7Lauren DignanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	15	0	0	0	0	1
23Gigi NavarreteL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
24Cate SchnellOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Lily WagnerOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	12	92	.283	37	7	8	43	1	2	12	8	75

Georgetownhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Kamryn Lee-CaracciMB	3	11	0	15	.733	0	0	5	1	0	2	1	12
22Dionna MitchellOH	3	5	6	24	-.042	0	1	1	7	3	0	0	6
2Maria FilippovaOH	3	3	3	18	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
20Juleigh UrbinaS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	3	6	0	0	0	0
13Berkeley PloderMB	2	3	1	8	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
15Grace AlbaughOH	2	3	2	7	.143	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
11Katherine McGregorOH	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	6.5
7Natalie NguyenS	3	0	0	1	.000	12	0	1	8	0	0	0	0
14Bella McGirrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
4Avery LewisOPP	2	1	1	5	.000	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1
3Taylor MercadoDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
21Fiona TurnbullMB	1	0	1	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
Team totals		31	17	99	.141	30	1	12	34	7	8	4	55

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 NW · GTOWN 3

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 NWGTOWN 3

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 4 NWGTOWN 2

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 6 NWGTOWN 3

Bars above the line = Georgetown leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Northwestern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	50%5/10
2	78%7/9	36%4/11
3	70%7/10	46%6/13
4	70%7/10	50%7/14
5	60%6/10	40%4/10
6	75%6/8	60%9/15
All	70%40/57	48%35/73

Georgetown

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	30%3/10
2	58%7/12	30%3/10
3	50%7/14	30%3/10
4	50%6/12	30%3/10
5	46%6/13	33%3/9
6	42%5/12	25%2/8
All	52%38/73	30%17/57

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	NW-GTOWN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+1.7
2	2-0	NW	NW	Ace	NW server	aced Dionna Mitchell	+2.5
3	2-1	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Juleigh Urbina	+1.6
4	3-1	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+1.7
5	3-2	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Juleigh Urbina	+1.7
6	3-3	GTOWN	GTOWN	Kill	Dionna Mitchell	set Juleigh Urbina	+2.6
7	4-3	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+1.8
8	4-4	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Dionna Mitchell	set Bella McGirr	+1.8
9	5-4	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Gigi Navarrete	+1.9
10	6-4	NW	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.7
11	6-5	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Dionna Mitchell	set Natalie Nguyen	+1.8
12	7-5	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
13	8-5	NW	NW	Ace	NW server	aced Dionna Mitchell	+2.6
14	8-6	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Katherine McGregor	set Natalie Nguyen	+1.6
15	9-6	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
16	9-7	NW	GTOWN×3	Serve err	NW server		+1.6
17	9-8	GTOWN	GTOWN×3	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci		+2.8
18	9-9	GTOWN	GTOWN×3	Bad set	Ellie Stiernagle		+3.1
19	10-9	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+2.1
20	10-10	NW	GTOWN×3	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+2.2
21	10-11	GTOWN	GTOWN×3	Bad set	Ellie Stiernagle		+3.4
22	10-12	GTOWN	GTOWN×3	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+3.4
23	11-12	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+2.1
24	11-13	NW	GTOWN	Attack err	Isabella Bullington	blk Maria Filippova, Kamryn Lee-Caracci	+2.4
25	12-13	GTOWN	NW×4	Serve err	GTOWN server		+2.2
26	13-13	NW	NW×4	Ace	NW server	aced Taylor Mercado	+3.6
27	14-13	NW	NW×4	Ace	NW server	aced Taylor Mercado	+3.7
28	15-13	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Dionna Mitchell		+3.6
29	15-14	NW	GTOWN	Serve err	NW server		+2.2
30	16-14	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.5
31	16-15	NW	GTOWN	Serve err	NW server		+2.3
32	16-16	GTOWN	GTOWN	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+4.1
33	17-16	GTOWN	NW	Attack err	Katherine McGregor	blk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell	+2.9
34	17-17	NW	GTOWN	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+2.9
35	17-18	GTOWN	GTOWN	Attack err	Campbell Paris	blk Katherine McGregor, Kamryn Lee-Caracci	+4.7
36	18-18	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.1
37	18-19	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Natalie Nguyen	+3.4
38	19-19	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+3.3
39	20-19	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+5.4
40	20-20	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Juleigh Urbina	+3.6
41	21-20	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+4.0
42	22-20	NW	NW	Bad set	Kamryn Lee-Caracci		+5.7
43	22-21	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Juleigh Urbina	+2.9
44	23-21	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+4.2
45	23-22	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Berkeley Ploder	set Juleigh Urbina	+2.9
46	23-23	GTOWN	GTOWN	Kill	Berkeley Ploder	set Natalie Nguyen	+7.5
47	24-23	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+6.6
48	25-23	NW	NW	Attack err	Katherine McGregor		+9.6
Set 2
1	0-1	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Grace Albaugh	set Bella McGirr	+1.6
2	0-2	GTOWN	GTOWN	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+2.4
3	1-2	GTOWN	NW	Attack err	Grace Albaugh	blk Campbell Paris	+1.6
4	1-3	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Maria Filippova	set Bella McGirr	+1.7
5	2-3	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
6	2-4	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Maria Filippova	set Juleigh Urbina	+1.7
7	3-4	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
8	4-4	NW	NW	Attack err	Dionna Mitchell	blk Hayley Schaaf, Ellie Stiernagle	+2.5
9	4-5	NW	GTOWN	Serve err	NW server		+1.8
10	5-5	GTOWN	NW	Attack err	Dionna Mitchell	blk Hayley Schaaf, Maya Stillwell	+1.7
11	5-6	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Grace Albaugh	set Natalie Nguyen	+1.8
12	6-6	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
13	6-7	NW	GTOWN	Bad set	Ellie Stiernagle		+1.9
14	6-8	GTOWN	GTOWN	Attack err	Maya Stillwell		+2.8
15	7-8	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
16	8-8	NW	NW	Ace	NW server	aced Dionna Mitchell	+2.8
17	8-9	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Katherine McGregor	set Natalie Nguyen	+2.0
18	9-9	GTOWN	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Campbell Paris	+1.9
19	10-9	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Maria Filippova		+2.9
20	11-9	NW	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.9
21	11-10	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Juleigh Urbina	+1.8
22	12-10	GTOWN	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.0
23	13-10	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Maria Filippova	blk Isabella Bullington	+2.7
24	14-10	NW	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Hayley Schaaf	+2.3
25	15-10	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Dionna Mitchell		+1.9
26	15-11	NW	GTOWN	Serve err	NW server		+1.0
27	16-11	GTOWN	NW×3	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle	set Berkeley Ploder	+1.3
28	17-11	NW	NW×3	Ace	NW server	aced Team	+1.3
29	18-11	NW	NW×3	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Gigi Navarrete	+0.9
30	18-12	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Berkeley Ploder	set Juleigh Urbina	+0.3
31	19-12	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Lauren Dignan	+0.5
32	20-12	NW	NW	Attack err	Berkeley Ploder		+0.4
33	20-13	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Avery Lewis	set Natalie Nguyen	+0.1
34	20-14	GTOWN	GTOWN	Kill	Katherine McGregor	set Natalie Nguyen	+0.4
35	21-14	GTOWN	NW×4	Serve err	GTOWN server		+0.4
36	22-14	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Dionna Mitchell		+0.3
37	23-14	NW	NW×4	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
38	24-14	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Lauren Dignan	+0.0
39	24-15	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Grace Albaugh	set Natalie Nguyen	+0.0
40	25-15	GTOWN	NW	Attack err	Grace Albaugh	blk Maya Stillwell, Mara Stiglic	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
2	1-1	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Juleigh Urbina	+1.0
3	2-1	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
4	3-1	NW	NW	Attack err	Maria Filippova		+1.5
5	3-2	NW	GTOWN	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+1.0
6	3-3	GTOWN	GTOWN	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf		+1.5
7	4-3	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+1.1
8	5-3	NW	NW	Attack err	Dionna Mitchell		+1.5
9	5-4	NW	GTOWN×3	Serve err	NW server		+1.0
10	5-5	GTOWN	GTOWN×3	Kill	Katherine McGregor	set Bella McGirr	+1.6
11	5-6	GTOWN	GTOWN×3	Kill	Dionna Mitchell	set Natalie Nguyen	+1.7
12	6-6	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.1
13	7-6	NW	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.7
14	7-7	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Dionna Mitchell	set Avery Lewis	+1.2
15	8-7	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle	set Isabella Bullington	+1.2
16	8-8	NW	GTOWN	Serve err	NW server		+1.2
17	9-8	GTOWN	NW×4	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
18	10-8	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Katherine McGregor	blk Maya Stillwell, Isabella Bullington	+1.8
19	11-8	NW	NW×4	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
20	12-8	NW	NW×4	Ace	NW server	aced Avery Lewis	+1.4
21	12-9	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Natalie Nguyen	+0.8
22	13-9	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
23	13-10	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Juleigh Urbina	+0.8
24	14-10	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.0
25	15-10	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.2
26	15-11	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Kamryn Lee-Caracci	set Juleigh Urbina	+0.6
27	15-12	GTOWN	GTOWN	Kill	Maria Filippova	set Juleigh Urbina	+1.2
28	16-12	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+1.0
29	16-13	NW	GTOWN	Serve err	NW server		+0.8
30	17-13	GTOWN	NW	Serve err	GTOWN server		+1.0
31	17-14	NW	GTOWN×3	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Fiona Turnbull, Katherine McGregor	+0.8
32	17-15	GTOWN	GTOWN×3	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Fiona Turnbull, Katherine McGregor	+1.6
33	17-16	GTOWN	GTOWN×3	Ace	GTOWN server	aced Isabella Bullington	+2.1
34	18-16	GTOWN	NW×6	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
35	19-16	NW	NW×6	Attack err	Avery Lewis	blk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell	+2.1
36	20-16	NW	NW×6	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
37	21-16	NW	NW×6	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.1
38	22-16	NW	NW×6	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.6
39	23-16	NW	NW×6	Attack err	Fiona Turnbull		+0.2
40	23-17	NW	GTOWN	Kill	Katherine McGregor	set Natalie Nguyen	+0.0
41	24-17	GTOWN	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.1
42	25-17	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.