FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMEAC

0:3

HomePATRIOT

Lehigh def. Morgan St. 3–0

(25-18, 25-17, 25-18)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
MORGAN	18	17	18	0
LEHIGH	25	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

LEHIGH above 50 · MORGAN below

Biggest swing: 0.3% to Morgan St. — set 1, MORGAN 10-7 LEHIGH. Kill by Michaela Panekova (set by Alaina Walker). LEHIGH win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MORGAN 0.6%99.4% LEHIGH

Morgan St. wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.4%

Lehigh wins

3-0

78.4%

3-1

18.3%

3-2

2.7%

MORGAN break %: 32.7% vs this opp
LEHIGH break %: 51.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Michaela PanekovaKill+0.3%
Kill by Michaela Panekova (set by Alaina Walker)
Set 1 · MORGAN 10-7 LEHIGH · MORGAN 1% → 1%
02
Michaela PanekovaKill+0.3%
Kill by Michaela Panekova (set by Tameary Wardlaw)
Set 1 · MORGAN 12-9 LEHIGH · MORGAN 1% → 2%
03
Nathalia MoraisAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Nathalia Morais
Set 1 · MORGAN 12-11 LEHIGH · LEHIGH 99% → 99%
04
Michaela PanekovaKill+0.2%
Kill by Michaela Panekova (set by Tameary Wardlaw)
Set 1 · MORGAN 11-8 LEHIGH · MORGAN 1% → 2%
05
Aubrey WilsonAttack error+0.2%
Aubrey Wilson stuffed by Jaidyn Garcia & Olivia Lasee
Set 1 · MORGAN 12-12 LEHIGH · LEHIGH 99% → 99%
06
Nathalia MoraisKill+0.2%
Kill by Nathalia Morais (set by Alaina Walker)
Set 1 · MORGAN 7-5 LEHIGH · MORGAN 1% → 1%
07
Olivia LaseeKill+0.2%
Kill by Olivia Lasee (set by Abby Felkai)
Set 1 · MORGAN 13-14 LEHIGH · LEHIGH 99% → 99%
08
Nathalia MoraisKill+0.2%
Kill by Nathalia Morais (set by Isabelle Brown)
Set 1 · MORGAN 13-12 LEHIGH · MORGAN 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Morgan St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Tyrah WeemsMB	3	11	6	20	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
9Michaela PanekovaOH	3	9	5	21	.190	0	1	4	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
1Jada WilliamsMB	3	3	4	15	-.067	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	5
10Nathalia MoraisOH	3	4	5	24	-.042	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
4Isabelle BrownS	3	0	1	2	-.500	16	4	9	0	0	0	0	0
11Aubrey WilsonMB	2	2	2	5	.000	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
5Bailey SwintonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Tameary WardlawL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
16Zayda ThomasOH	2	2	2	4	.000	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
13Alaina WalkerS	2	0	0	0	–	5	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
21Kira DevriezeL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
8Tre'Niya MillerMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
Team totals		32	26	93	.065	29	6	29	6	3	8	7	53

Lehighhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Alysia FingallOH	3	8	1	15	.467	1	1	1	1	2	1	2.5	11.5
15Mary MassiasOH	3	7	1	17	.353	1	1	3	7	1	2	2	10
8Olivia LaseeMB	3	4	1	9	.333	1	0	2	2	1	4	3	7
21Natalie LuscombOH	3	5	0	12	.417	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	6
9Grace SlovenskyS	3	1	0	1	1.000	11	0	2	2	0	0	0	1
23Jana JankowskiMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Jaidyn GarciaOH	3	6	4	14	.143	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
7Sophia BondL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	4	3	8	0	0	0	4
20Abby FelkaiS	3	0	0	1	.000	14	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
12Paighton ErbMB	2	1	1	5	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	1.5
17Natalie UnkrichOH	1	2	1	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
11Lauryn AllenOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Molly ThompsonL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	9	78	.333	33	6	12	28	5	10	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 MORGAN · LEHIGH 10

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 2 MORGANLEHIGH 7

Set 2*

17-25

Longest run 3 MORGANLEHIGH 10

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 MORGANLEHIGH 5

Bars above the line = Lehigh leads, below = Morgan St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Morgan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%4/7	40%4/10
2	40%4/10	20%1/5
3	36%4/11	43%3/7
4	50%4/8	20%1/5
5	80%4/5	20%1/5
6	57%4/7	33%2/6
All	50%24/48	32%12/38

Lehigh

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	43%3/7
2	80%4/5	43%3/7
3	57%4/7	60%6/10
4	80%4/5	64%7/11
5	80%4/5	50%4/8
6	67%4/6	20%1/5
All	68%26/38	50%24/48

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	MORGAN-LEHIGH	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Bailey Swinton	+0.1
2	1-1	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.1
3	2-1	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
4	3-1	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
5	3-2	MORGAN	LEHIGH×3	Kill	Mary Massias	set Grace Slovensky	+0.1
6	3-3	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Attack err	Tyrah Weems		+0.1
7	3-4	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.1
8	4-4	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
9	5-4	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
10	5-5	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Olivia Lasee	set Abby Felkai	+0.1
11	6-5	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Attack err	Alysia Fingall	blk Jada Williams, Tyrah Weems	+0.1
12	7-5	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Alaina Walker	+0.2
13	7-6	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Alysia Fingall	set Abby Felkai	+0.1
14	8-6	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.2
15	8-7	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Alysia Fingall	set Abby Felkai	+0.1
16	9-7	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.2
17	10-7	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Alaina Walker	+0.3
18	10-8	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk Alysia Fingall	+0.2
19	11-8	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.2
20	11-9	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Mary Massias	set Grace Slovensky	+0.2
21	12-9	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.3
22	12-10	MORGAN	LEHIGH×3	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.2
23	12-11	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+0.3
24	12-12	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson	blk Jaidyn Garcia, Olivia Lasee	+0.2
25	13-12	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
26	13-13	MORGAN	LEHIGH×7	Kill	Jaidyn Garcia	set Abby Felkai	+0.2
27	13-14	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×7	Kill	Olivia Lasee	set Abby Felkai	+0.2
28	13-15	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×7	Bad set	Isabelle Brown		+0.2
29	13-16	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×7	Attack err	Tyrah Weems		+0.1
30	13-17	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×7	Attack err	Tyrah Weems		+0.1
31	13-18	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×7	Attack err	Jada Williams	blk Olivia Lasee, Alysia Fingall	+0.1
32	13-19	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×7	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+0.0
33	14-19	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.0
34	14-20	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Alysia Fingall	set Abby Felkai	+0.0
35	15-20	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Alaina Walker	+0.0
36	16-20	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Jaidyn Garcia	blk Michaela Panekova, Jada Williams	+0.0
37	16-21	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Jaidyn Garcia	set Abby Felkai	+0.0
38	16-22	LEHIGH	LEHIGH	Kill	Natalie Luscomb	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0
39	17-22	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.0
40	17-23	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+0.0
41	18-23	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.0
42	18-24	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Jana Jankowski	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0
43	18-25	LEHIGH	LEHIGH	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk Mary Massias	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	LEHIGH	LEHIGH	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.1
2	1-1	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.0
3	1-2	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+0.0
4	2-2	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
5	2-3	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Jaidyn Garcia	set Abby Felkai	+0.0
6	3-3	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.0
7	3-4	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Jaidyn Garcia	set Sophia Bond	+0.0
8	4-4	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.1
9	5-4	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Alaina Walker	+0.1
10	5-5	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Jaidyn Garcia	set Abby Felkai	+0.1
11	6-5	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.1
12	6-6	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Natalie Luscomb	set Mary Massias	+0.1
13	6-7	LEHIGH	LEHIGH	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+0.1
14	7-7	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Alaina Walker	+0.1
15	7-8	MORGAN	LEHIGH×10	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.1
16	7-9	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Kill	Mary Massias		+0.1
17	7-10	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Attack err	Jada Williams		+0.0
18	7-11	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Kill	Mary Massias	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0
19	7-12	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
20	7-13	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Attack err	Jada Williams	blk Olivia Lasee	+0.0
21	7-14	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Ace	LEHIGH server	aced Team	+0.0
22	7-15	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Ace	LEHIGH server	aced Team	+0.0
23	7-16	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Kill	Grace Slovensky	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
24	7-17	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×10	Ace	LEHIGH server	aced Team	+0.0
25	8-17	LEHIGH	MORGAN×3	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.0
26	9-17	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Olivia Lasee	blk Jada Williams	+0.0
27	10-17	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.0
28	10-18	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Mary Massias	set Sophia Bond	+0.0
29	11-18	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
30	11-19	MORGAN	LEHIGH×3	Kill	Olivia Lasee	set Abby Felkai	+0.0
31	11-20	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Ace	LEHIGH server	aced Michaela Panekova	+0.0
32	11-21	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Attack err	Tyrah Weems	blk Natalie Unkrich, Olivia Lasee	+0.0
33	12-21	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.0
34	12-22	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Natalie Unkrich	set Olivia Lasee	+0.0
35	13-22	LEHIGH	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Jaidyn Garcia	blk Zayda Thomas	+0.0
36	14-22	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Jaidyn Garcia		+0.0
37	15-22	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Natalie Unkrich	blk Zayda Thomas, Aubrey Wilson	+0.0
38	15-23	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Natalie Unkrich	set Abby Felkai	+0.0
39	15-24	LEHIGH	LEHIGH	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson		+0.0
40	16-24	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.0
41	17-24	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams		+0.0
42	17-25	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.0
2	1-1	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Serve err	LEHIGH server		+0.0
3	1-2	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Natalie Luscomb	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0
4	2-2	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Attack err	Jaidyn Garcia	blk Nathalia Morais, Tre'Niya Miller	+0.0
5	3-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Bailey Swinton	+0.0
6	3-3	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Mary Massias	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0
7	3-4	LEHIGH	LEHIGH	Kill	Alysia Fingall	set Sophia Bond	+0.0
8	4-4	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
9	4-5	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Alysia Fingall	set Sophia Bond	+0.0
10	5-5	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
11	5-6	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Alysia Fingall	set Abby Felkai	+0.0
12	6-6	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
13	6-7	MORGAN	LEHIGH×4	Kill	Alysia Fingall	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0
14	6-8	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×4	Ace	LEHIGH server	aced Team	+0.0
15	6-9	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×4	Kill	Paighton Erb	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0
16	6-10	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×4	Attack err	Isabelle Brown	blk Paighton Erb, Mary Massias	+0.0
17	7-10	LEHIGH	MORGAN×3	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
18	8-10	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
19	9-10	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Bailey Swinton	+0.0
20	9-11	MORGAN	LEHIGH×3	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.0
21	9-12	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Attack err	Nathalia Morais	blk Natalie Luscomb	+0.0
22	9-13	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Attack err	Tyrah Weems	blk Olivia Lasee, Mary Massias	+0.0
23	10-13	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
24	10-14	MORGAN	LEHIGH×3	Kill	Natalie Luscomb	set Sophia Bond	+0.0
25	10-15	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Attack err	Tre'Niya Miller		+0.0
26	10-16	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×3	Bad set	Isabelle Brown		+0.0
27	11-16	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
28	12-16	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Mary Massias		+0.0
29	12-17	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Olivia Lasee	set Abby Felkai	+0.0
30	13-17	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
31	13-18	MORGAN	LEHIGH×5	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+0.0
32	13-19	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×5	Attack err	Jada Williams	blk Alysia Fingall	+0.0
33	13-20	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×5	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.0
34	13-21	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×5	Kill	Jaidyn Garcia	set Alysia Fingall	+0.0
35	13-22	LEHIGH	LEHIGH×5	Kill	Alysia Fingall	set Abby Felkai	+0.0
36	14-22	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
37	14-23	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Attack err	Tyrah Weems		+0.0
38	15-23	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
39	16-23	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Tre'Niya Miller	set Bailey Swinton	+0.0
40	16-24	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Natalie Luscomb	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0
41	17-24	LEHIGH	MORGAN	Kill	Tyrah Weems	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
42	18-24	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Paighton Erb	blk Tre'Niya Miller	+0.0
43	18-25	MORGAN	LEHIGH	Kill	Mary Massias	set Grace Slovensky	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Morgan St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.