FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayBIG-SOUTH

3:0

HomeASUN

UNC Asheville def. Bellarmine 3–0

(25-22, 25-23, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
UNC A	25	25	25	3
BELLAR	22	23	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BELLAR above 50 · UNC A below

Biggest swing: 10.8% to UNC Asheville — set 2, UNC A 25-23 BELLAR. Kill by Sarah Wadsworth (set by Elise Jensen). BELLAR win probability 25% → 15%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

UNC A 44.9%55.1% BELLAR

UNC Asheville wins

3-0

10.5%

3-1

16.6%

3-2

17.8%

Bellarmine wins

3-0

14.7%

3-1

20.9%

3-2

19.5%

UNC A break %: 42.4% vs this opp
BELLAR break %: 43.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sarah WadsworthKill+10.8%
Kill by Sarah Wadsworth (set by Elise Jensen)
Set 2 · UNC A 25-23 BELLAR · UNC A 75% → 85%
02
Mady YadenAttack error+10.6%
Attack error by Mady Yaden
Set 2 · UNC A 24-23 BELLAR · UNC A 64% → 75%
03
Erika SmithAttack error+7.9%
Attack error by Erika Smith
Set 1 · UNC A 23-22 BELLAR · UNC A 45% → 53%
04
Mady YadenAttack error+7.9%
Attack error by Mady Yaden
Set 2 · UNC A 23-23 BELLAR · UNC A 56% → 64%
05
Sarah WadsworthKill+7.7%
Kill by Sarah Wadsworth
Set 1 · UNC A 24-22 BELLAR · UNC A 53% → 61%
06
Maddie CarnesBad set+6.4%
Bad set by Maddie Carnes
Set 1 · UNC A 22-22 BELLAR · UNC A 39% → 45%
07
Natalie BlandAttack error+5.6%
Attack error by Natalie Bland
Set 3 · UNC A 25-23 BELLAR · UNC A 94% → 100%
08
Cadence NicholsAttack error+5.0%
Cadence Nichols stuffed by Erika Smith
Set 2 · UNC A 18-19 BELLAR · BELLAR 34% → 39%

Official NCAA box

Box score

UNC Ashevilleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Lydia PateMB	3	8	1	13	.538	0	2	2	1	0	0	2	1	11
5Addie BrookbankOH	3	8	5	32	.094	1	0	3	9	1	1	3	2.5	10.5
13Cadence NicholsMB	3	5	2	12	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	8
23Sarah WadsworthOH	3	5	4	31	.032	0	1	4	6	2	0	1	0.5	6.5
32Albertine van der GootOH	3	3	3	18	.000	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	3	6
18Elise JensenS	3	1	0	4	.250	17	2	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
4Izzy PerkinsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	16	1	0	0	0	1
7Lily BannisterOH	2	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
17Catherine HubiakL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	4	1	0	0	0	2
22Olivia CallipoS	2	0	0	0	–	7	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		32	15	114	.149	26	9	12	43	6	3	16	11	75

Bellarminehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Natalie BlandOH	3	12	8	31	.129	0	1	1	11	1	1	2	2	15
22Mya WhiteOH	3	5	6	19	-.053	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
20Mary HermanMB	3	3	3	12	.000	0	0	1	2	1	1	1	1.5	4.5
3Erika SmithMB	3	2	5	12	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	4
7Maddie CarnesS	3	3	0	4	.750	27	1	1	15	0	0	0	0	4
1Mady YadenOH	2	3	4	16	-.063	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
11Abby JuliusOH	3	4	0	9	.444	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	5
12Abbie LyttleDS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	2	1	8	3	0	0	0	2
24Ava LongDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	4	2	0	0	0	1
4Payton ParsonsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	16	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	26	104	.058	32	6	7	56	9	3	6	6	68

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 UNC A · BELLAR 7

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 5 UNC ABELLAR 5

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 8 UNC ABELLAR 7

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 UNC ABELLAR 5

Bars above the line = Bellarmine leads, below = UNC Asheville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

UNC Asheville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	41%7/17	50%6/12
2	64%7/11	42%5/12
3	70%7/10	59%10/17
4	40%6/15	50%6/12
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	71%5/7	55%6/11
All	55%38/69	50%37/74

Bellarmine

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	17%1/6
2	37%7/19	61%11/18
3	70%7/10	30%3/10
4	46%6/13	63%12/19
5	67%6/9	14%1/7
6	27%4/15	33%3/9
All	50%37/74	45%31/69

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

143 rallies

Rally log

#	UNC A-BELLAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	UNC A	BELLAR×5	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.8
2	0-2	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Sarah Wadsworth	+2.4
3	0-3	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.3
4	0-4	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth	blk Mya White, Mary Herman	+2.1
5	0-5	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth		+1.9
6	1-5	BELLAR	UNC A	Attack err	Mya White		+1.3
7	2-5	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Mary Herman		+2.0
8	2-6	UNC A	BELLAR×4	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+1.7
9	2-7	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+2.0
10	2-8	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Sarah Wadsworth	+1.7
11	2-9	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Izzy Perkins	+1.4
12	3-9	BELLAR	UNC A	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Albertine van der Goot	+0.8
13	3-10	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.0
14	4-10	BELLAR	UNC A×5	Attack err	Erika Smith		+0.8
15	5-10	UNC A	UNC A×5	Kill	Addie Brookbank		+1.4
16	6-10	UNC A	UNC A×5	Attack err	Natalie Bland		+1.7
17	7-10	UNC A	UNC A×5	Ace	UNC A server	aced Abbie Lyttle	+2.1
18	8-10	UNC A	UNC A×5	Attack err	Mya White	blk Addie Brookbank	+2.5
19	8-11	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.1
20	9-11	BELLAR	UNC A	Attack err	Erika Smith		+1.9
21	10-11	UNC A	UNC A	Kill	Elise Jensen		+2.9
22	10-12	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.3
23	11-12	BELLAR	UNC A	Serve err	BELLAR server		+2.2
24	12-12	UNC A	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+3.3
25	12-13	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+2.6
26	12-14	BELLAR	BELLAR	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Catherine Hubiak	+3.4
27	13-14	BELLAR	UNC A	Serve err	BELLAR server		+2.4
28	13-15	UNC A	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Albertine van der Goot		+2.6
29	13-16	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Albertine van der Goot		+3.2
30	13-17	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Bad set	Elise Jensen		+2.7
31	14-17	BELLAR	UNC A	Attack err	Mady Yaden		+1.6
32	15-17	UNC A	UNC A	Kill	Albertine van der Goot		+2.8
33	15-18	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+2.6
34	16-18	BELLAR	UNC A	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Albertine van der Goot, Lydia Pate	+2.2
35	16-19	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+2.7
36	16-20	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+2.9
37	17-20	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+1.5
38	18-20	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Abbie Lyttle	+2.9
39	18-21	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+3.0
40	19-21	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+2.2
41	20-21	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Erika Smith	blk Sarah Wadsworth, Cadence Nichols	+4.2
42	20-22	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+4.2
43	21-22	BELLAR	UNC A×5	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Elise Jensen	+3.3
44	22-22	UNC A	UNC A×5	Bad set	Maddie Carnes		+6.4
45	23-22	UNC A	UNC A×5	Attack err	Erika Smith		+7.9
46	24-22	UNC A	UNC A×5	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth		+7.7
47	25-22	UNC A	UNC A×5	Attack err	Mady Yaden	blk Elise Jensen, Lydia Pate	+4.5
Set 2
1	1-0	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+2.0
2	1-1	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+1.9
3	2-1	BELLAR	UNC A	Serve err	BELLAR server		+2.0
4	2-2	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+2.0
5	3-2	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Elise Jensen	+2.1
6	3-3	UNC A	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth		+2.0
7	3-4	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Payton Parsons	+2.7
8	3-5	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Cadence Nichols	blk Erika Smith, Natalie Bland	+2.7
9	3-6	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.6
10	4-6	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+1.8
11	4-7	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Payton Parsons	+2.0
12	4-8	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+2.4
13	5-8	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+1.6
14	5-9	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+1.8
15	5-10	BELLAR	BELLAR	Attack err	Sarah Wadsworth		+2.1
16	6-10	BELLAR	UNC A×3	Serve err	BELLAR server		+1.4
17	7-10	UNC A	UNC A×3	Ace	UNC A server	aced Ava Long	+2.2
18	8-10	UNC A	UNC A×3	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+2.6
19	8-11	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.2
20	9-11	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+2.0
21	9-12	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+2.2
22	9-13	BELLAR	BELLAR	Bad set	Elise Jensen		+2.7
23	10-13	BELLAR	UNC A×8	Kill	Albertine van der Goot	set Addie Brookbank	+1.7
24	11-13	UNC A	UNC A×8	Ace	UNC A server	aced Abbie Lyttle	+2.8
25	12-13	UNC A	UNC A×8	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Elise Jensen	+3.2
26	13-13	UNC A	UNC A×8	Attack err	Mya White	blk Cadence Nichols, Addie Brookbank	+3.6
27	14-13	UNC A	UNC A×8	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Albertine van der Goot	+3.8
28	15-13	UNC A	UNC A×8	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+3.8
29	16-13	UNC A	UNC A×8	Attack err	Mary Herman	blk Cadence Nichols, Addie Brookbank	+3.6
30	17-13	UNC A	UNC A×8	Attack err	Mya White		+3.2
31	17-14	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+1.9
32	18-14	BELLAR	UNC A	Attack err	Natalie Bland		+2.4
33	18-15	UNC A	BELLAR×7	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+1.8
34	18-16	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+3.2
35	18-17	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Addie Brookbank	+4.0
36	18-18	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Abbie Lyttle	+4.7
37	18-19	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Attack err	Cadence Nichols	blk Erika Smith	+5.0
38	18-20	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Attack err	Addie Brookbank	blk Natalie Bland	+4.9
39	18-21	BELLAR	BELLAR×7	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+4.2
40	19-21	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Izzy Perkins	+2.3
41	20-21	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Cadence Nichols, Lily Bannister	+4.5
42	20-22	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+4.4
43	21-22	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Lily Bannister	set Olivia Callipo	+3.5
44	21-23	UNC A	BELLAR	Attack err	Addie Brookbank		+5.0
45	22-23	BELLAR	UNC A×4	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Olivia Callipo	+3.6
46	23-23	UNC A	UNC A×4	Attack err	Mady Yaden		+7.9
47	24-23	UNC A	UNC A×4	Attack err	Mady Yaden		+10.6
48	25-23	UNC A	UNC A×4	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Elise Jensen	+10.8
Set 3
1	0-1	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Abby Julius	set Maddie Carnes	+1.3
2	1-1	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+1.3
3	2-1	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Payton Parsons	+1.8
4	2-2	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.4
5	3-2	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+1.4
6	3-3	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+1.4
7	4-3	BELLAR	UNC A	Serve err	BELLAR server		+1.5
8	4-4	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Mya White	set Maddie Carnes	+1.4
9	5-4	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Olivia Callipo	+1.5
10	6-4	UNC A	UNC A	Attack err	Erika Smith		+2.0
11	6-5	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.4
12	7-5	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Sarah Wadsworth	set Olivia Callipo	+1.5
13	7-6	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Payton Parsons	+1.5
14	8-6	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Olivia Callipo	+1.6
15	9-6	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Mary Herman	+2.0
16	9-7	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Abby Julius	set Maddie Carnes	+1.4
17	10-7	BELLAR	UNC A	Attack err	Mya White		+1.6
18	10-8	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+1.4
19	11-8	BELLAR	UNC A×4	Serve err	BELLAR server		+1.6
20	12-8	UNC A	UNC A×4	Attack err	Mya White	blk Addie Brookbank, Cadence Nichols	+2.0
21	13-8	UNC A	UNC A×4	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Cadence Nichols, Albertine van der Goot	+1.7
22	14-8	UNC A	UNC A×4	Ace	UNC A server	aced Payton Parsons	+1.4
23	14-9	UNC A	BELLAR×3	Serve err	UNC A server		+0.8
24	14-10	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Albertine van der Goot	blk Natalie Bland, Erika Smith	+1.4
25	14-11	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Abbie Lyttle	+1.7
26	15-11	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Addie Brookbank	set Elise Jensen	+1.6
27	16-11	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Natalie Bland	+1.7
28	16-12	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+1.0
29	17-12	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Lily Bannister	set Olivia Callipo	+1.3
30	17-13	UNC A	BELLAR×3	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+1.0
31	17-14	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Team	+1.7
32	17-15	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+2.2
33	18-15	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Cadence Nichols	set Olivia Callipo	+2.0
34	19-15	UNC A	UNC A	Ace	UNC A server	aced Ava Long	+2.3
35	19-16	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Abby Julius	set Maddie Carnes	+1.2
36	20-16	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Olivia Callipo	+1.7
37	20-17	UNC A	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Lydia Pate		+1.2
38	20-18	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.3
39	20-19	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Attack err	Addie Brookbank	blk Mary Herman	+3.0
40	20-20	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Bad set	Elise Jensen		+3.8
41	20-21	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Abby Julius	set Maddie Carnes	+4.2
42	21-21	BELLAR	UNC A×3	Serve err	BELLAR server		+3.1
43	22-21	UNC A	UNC A×3	Attack err	Mary Herman		+4.9
44	23-21	UNC A	UNC A×3	Kill	Lydia Pate	set Elise Jensen	+4.8
45	23-22	UNC A	BELLAR	Serve err	UNC A server		+2.6
46	24-22	BELLAR	UNC A	Kill	Albertine van der Goot	set Elise Jensen	+4.2
47	24-23	UNC A	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+2.4
48	25-23	BELLAR	UNC A	Attack err	Natalie Bland		+5.6

Score shown after each rally, UNC Asheville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.