Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026 · Neutral site

UNC Asheville def. Morgan St. 3–1

UNC Asheville beat Morgan St. 3-1 (24-26, 25-19, 25-17, 25-21) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026 at a neutral site. UNC Asheville's Sarah Wadsworth led with 15 kills, and Catherine Hubiak added 17 digs.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set1234Sets
UNC A242525253
MORGAN261917211

Win probability

Morgan St. above 50 · UNC Asheville below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.0% MORGANrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.0% to Morgan St. — set 1, UNC A 24-26 MORGAN. Kill by Jada Williams (set by Isabelle Brown). MORGAN win probability 21% → 29%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UNC A 88.6%11.4% MORGAN

UNC Asheville wins

3-0
42.1%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.8%

Morgan St. wins

3-0
1.6%
3-1
3.5%
3-2
6.3%
UNC A break %
46.8% vs this opp
MORGAN break %
37.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Jada WilliamsKill+8.0%

    Kill by Jada Williams (set by Isabelle Brown)

    Set 1 · UNC A 24-26 MORGAN · MORGAN 21% → 29%

  2. 02
    Sarah WadsworthAttack error+6.4%

    Attack error by Sarah Wadsworth

    Set 1 · UNC A 24-25 MORGAN · MORGAN 14% → 21%

  3. 03

    Albertine van der Goot stuffed by Tre'Niya Miller & Jada Williams

    Set 1 · UNC A 24-24 MORGAN · MORGAN 9% → 14%

  4. 04

    Maddie Connelly stuffed by Isabelle Brown & Aubrey Wilson

    Set 2 · UNC A 16-16 MORGAN · MORGAN 27% → 31%

  5. 05

    Sarah Wadsworth stuffed by Tre'Niya Miller & Jada Williams

    Set 2 · UNC A 8-11 MORGAN · MORGAN 36% → 40%

  6. 06
    UNC AshevilleAce+3.7%

    UNC Asheville ace on Nathalia Morais

    Set 2 · UNC A 18-16 MORGAN · UNC A 72% → 75%

  7. 07

    Lydia Pate stuffed by Tre'Niya Miller & Jada Williams

    Set 2 · UNC A 8-10 MORGAN · MORGAN 33% → 36%

  8. 08
    Michaela PanekovaAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Michaela Panekova

    Set 2 · UNC A 10-11 MORGAN · UNC A 62% → 66%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4151040.12502553111.518.5
411218.50002220153.516.5
411430.23300030132.513.5
48626.07703362010.511.5
4000–2211600001
1113.000000000001
43111.18200021031.54.5
4000–2034800003
4000–5121700001
3102.50000000031.52.5
Team totals5024130.2004712174963161199
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414536.2501328104219
45115.267010001228
4519.444281380010.56.5
4216.16700010031.53.5
41513-.308000810001
37722.000000210007
4000–210910001
4001.000001710000
4000–001100000
3217.14310152010.52.5
1035-.600000011011
1000–00000010.50.5
Team totals3624114.10532684912212883

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 UNC A · MORGAN 5

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 5 UNC AMORGAN 5

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 5 UNC AMORGAN 3

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 4 UNC AMORGAN 3

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 7 UNC AMORGAN 3

Bars above the line = Morgan St. leads, below = UNC Asheville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UNC Asheville

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%5/8
69%9/13
2
100%4/4
50%4/8
3
44%4/9
50%4/8
4
100%4/4
67%8/12
5
100%4/4
0%0/4
6
50%4/8
0%0/4
All
68%25/37
51%25/49

Morgan St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
36%4/11
38%3/8
2
50%4/8
33%2/6
3
40%4/10
33%2/6
4
50%4/8
43%3/7
5
100%4/4
0%0/4
6
50%4/8
33%2/6
All
49%24/49
32%12/37

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#UNC A-MORGANSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MORGANMORGANAceMorgan St.aced Sarah Wadsworth+1.3
21-1MORGANUNC AKillLydia Pateset Olivia Callipo+0.9
31-2UNC AMORGAN×3KillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+1.0
41-3MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errMaddie Connelly+1.5
51-4MORGANMORGAN×3KillJada Williamsset Kira Devrieze+1.6
62-4MORGANUNC AKillLydia Pateset Olivia Callipo+1.0
72-5UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+1.3
82-6MORGANMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+1.8
93-6MORGANUNC AKillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+1.1
103-7UNC AMORGAN×3Serve errUNC Asheville+1.4
113-8MORGANMORGAN×3AceMorgan St.aced Lily Bannister+1.8
123-9MORGANMORGAN×3AceMorgan St.aced Sarah Wadsworth+1.8
134-9MORGANUNC AKillMaddie Connellyset Elise Jensen+1.0
145-9UNC AUNC AAttack errAzra Arslanoglu+1.5
155-10UNC AMORGANKillAubrey Wilson+1.4
166-10MORGANUNC ABlockedIsabelle Brownblk Sarah Wadsworth+1.1
177-10UNC AUNC AKillLydia Pate+1.7
187-11UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+1.5
198-11MORGANUNC AKillLydia Pateset Elise Jensen+1.2
209-11UNC AUNC AKillAlbertine van der Gootset Catherine Hubiak+1.8
219-12UNC AMORGANBad setCatherine Hubiak+1.6
2210-12MORGANUNC A×4Serve errMorgan St.+1.3
2311-12UNC AUNC A×4BlockedMichaela Panekovablk Lydia Pate, Maddie Connelly+1.9
2412-12UNC AUNC A×4BlockedMorgan St.blk Albertine van der Goot+1.9
2513-12UNC AUNC A×4Attack errJada Williams+1.7
2613-13UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+1.4
2713-14MORGANMORGANAttack errMaddie Connelly+2.2
2814-14MORGANUNC AKillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+1.5
2914-15UNC AMORGANAttack errMaddie Connellyset Lydia Pate+1.7
3014-16MORGANMORGANAttack errCadence Nichols+2.5
3115-16MORGANUNC A×5KillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+1.6
3216-16UNC AUNC A×5KillMaddie Connellyset Elise Jensen+2.3
3317-16UNC A
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.2
3418-16UNC AUNC A×5KillMaddie Connellyset Elise Jensen+1.9
3519-16UNC AUNC A×5AceUNC Asheville+1.5
3619-17UNC AMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+1.0
3720-17MORGANUNC AKillCadence Nicholsset Elise Jensen+1.2
3820-18UNC AMORGAN×3KillAubrey Wilsonset Isabelle Brown+1.0
3920-19MORGANMORGAN×3BlockedSarah Wadsworthblk Aubrey Wilson+2.0
4020-20MORGANMORGAN×3KillMichaela Panekovaset Kira Devrieze+2.9
4121-20MORGANUNC AKillSarah Wadsworthset Elise Jensen+2.2
4222-20UNC AUNC AAttack errMichaela Panekova+2.7
4322-21UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+1.6
4423-21MORGANUNC AServe errMorgan St.+2.2
4524-21UNC AUNC ABlockedTre'Niya Millerblk Lydia Pate+1.9
4624-22UNC AMORGAN×5KillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+0.5
4724-23MORGANMORGAN×5Attack errSarah Wadsworth+1.9
4824-24MORGANMORGAN×5BlockedAlbertine van der Gootblk Tre'Niya Miller, Jada Williams+5.2
4924-25MORGANMORGAN×5Attack errSarah Wadsworth+6.4
5024-26MORGANMORGAN×5KillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+8.0
Set 2
11-0UNC AUNC AKillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+2.1
22-0UNC AUNC AKillSarah Wadsworthset Olivia Callipo+1.9
32-1UNC AMORGAN×3KillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+1.5
42-2MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errAlbertine van der Goot+2.3
52-3MORGANMORGAN×3KillJada Williams+2.7
63-3MORGANUNC AKillSarah Wadsworthset Olivia Callipo+1.8
73-4UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+2.1
84-4MORGANUNC AKillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+1.8
95-4UNC AUNC AAceUNC Asheville+2.4
105-5UNC AMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+1.9
115-6MORGANMORGANAceMorgan St.aced Sarah Wadsworth+2.9
126-6MORGANUNC AKillMaddie Connellyset Olivia Callipo+2.0
136-7UNC AMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+2.3
147-7MORGANUNC ABall handlingJada Williams+2.0
157-8UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+2.4
168-8MORGANUNC AKillSarah Wadsworthset Elise Jensen+2.1
178-9UNC AMORGAN×3KillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+2.5
188-10MORGANMORGAN×3BlockedLydia Pateblk Tre'Niya Miller, Jada Williams+3.7
198-11MORGANMORGAN×3BlockedSarah Wadsworthblk Tre'Niya Miller, Jada Williams+3.9
209-11MORGANUNC A×3KillLydia Pateset Elise Jensen+2.4
2110-11UNC AUNC A×3Attack errMichaela Panekova+3.5
2211-11UNC AUNC A×3KillSarah Wadsworthset Catherine Hubiak+3.4
2311-12UNC AMORGANKillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+2.8
2412-12MORGANUNC A×3KillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+2.5
2513-12UNC AUNC A×3KillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+3.3
2614-12UNC AUNC A×3Ball handlingUNC Asheville+2.9
2714-13UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+2.2
2815-13MORGANUNC AAttack errAzra Arslanogluset Tameary Wardlaw+2.2
2916-13UNC AUNC AKillAlbertine van der Goot+2.6
3016-14UNC AMORGAN×3KillAubrey Wilsonset Isabelle Brown+1.7
3116-15MORGANMORGAN×3BlockedAlbertine van der Gootblk Nathalia Morais, Aubrey Wilson+3.1
3216-16MORGANMORGAN×3BlockedMaddie Connellyblk Isabelle Brown, Aubrey Wilson+4.1
3317-16MORGANUNC A×5KillSarah Wadsworthset Olivia Callipo+3.0
3418-16UNC AUNC A×5AceUNC Ashevilleaced Nathalia Morais+3.7
3519-16UNC AUNC A×5Attack errJada Williams+2.9
3620-16UNC AUNC A×5KillLily Bannisterset Catherine Hubiak+2.1
3721-16UNC AUNC A×5KillMaddie Connellyset Elise Jensen+1.3
3821-17UNC AMORGANKillLily Bannister+0.6
3922-17MORGANUNC AServe errMorgan St.+0.8
4022-18UNC AMORGANKillAubrey Wilsonset Isabelle Brown+0.5
4123-18MORGANUNC AKillLily Bannisterset Catherine Hubiak+0.7
4223-19UNC AMORGANKillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+0.3
4324-19MORGANUNC AServe errMorgan St.+0.6
4425-19UNC AUNC AAttack errNathalia Morais+0.2
Set 3
11-0MORGANUNC A×3Serve errMorgan St.+1.4
22-0UNC AUNC A×3BlockedJenae Masonblk Lydia Pate, Albertine van der Goot+1.8
33-0UNC AUNC A×3AceUNC Ashevilleaced Kira Devrieze+1.5
43-1UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+1.1
54-1MORGANUNC A×3KillSarah Wadsworthset Olivia Callipo+1.1
65-1UNC AUNC A×3AceUNC Ashevilleaced Jenae Mason+1.3
76-1UNC AUNC A×3Attack errJada Williams+1.1
86-2UNC AMORGANKillAubrey Wilsonset Isabelle Brown+0.7
96-3MORGANMORGANAttack errSarah Wadsworth+1.3
107-3MORGANUNC AServe errMorgan St.+1.0
118-3UNC AUNC AAttack errJenae Mason+1.1
128-4UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+0.8
139-4MORGANUNC AKillMaddie Connellyset Elise Jensen+0.8
149-5UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+0.8
1510-5MORGANUNC AKillSarah Wadsworthset Elise Jensen+0.8
1610-6UNC AMORGAN×3KillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+0.8
1710-7MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errSarah Wadsworth+1.4
1810-8MORGANMORGAN×3KillIsabelle Brown+1.8
1911-8MORGANUNC ABlockedMichaela Panekovablk Lily Bannister, Lydia Pate+1.4
2012-8UNC AUNC ABlockedMichaela Panekovablk Sarah Wadsworth, Lydia Pate+1.6
2112-9UNC AMORGANKillMichaela Panekovaset Isabelle Brown+1.1
2212-10MORGANMORGANBlockedLydia Pateblk Jenae Mason+1.9
2313-10MORGANUNC AKillLydia Pateset Olivia Callipo+1.5
2413-11UNC AMORGANKillJada Williams+1.5
2514-11MORGANUNC AKillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+1.6
2614-12UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+1.5
2714-13MORGANMORGANAttack errSarah Wadsworth+2.7
2815-13MORGANUNC A×4KillAlbertine van der Gootset Olivia Callipo+2.0
2916-13UNC AUNC A×4BlockedJenae Masonblk Leah Okogbenin, Lily Bannister+2.4
3017-13UNC AUNC A×4AceUNC Ashevilleaced Tameary Wardlaw+1.8
3118-13UNC AUNC A×4Attack errAubrey Wilson+1.3
3218-14UNC AMORGANKillIsabelle Brownset Sarah Wadsworth+0.7
3319-14MORGANUNC AKillMaddie Connellyset Elise Jensen+0.9
3419-15UNC AMORGANKillNathalia Moraisset Isabelle Brown+0.7
3520-15MORGANUNC AKillSarah Wadsworthset Elise Jensen+0.9
3620-16UNC AMORGANAttack errLily Bannisterset Elise Jensen+0.6
3721-16MORGANUNC A×4KillSarah Wadsworthset Elise Jensen+0.8
3822-16UNC AUNC A×4Attack errMichaela Panekova+0.6
3923-16UNC AUNC A×4AceUNC Ashevilleaced Michaela Panekova+0.2
4024-16UNC AUNC A×4BlockedMichaela Panekovablk Lydia Pate, Albertine van der Goot+0.1
4124-17UNC AMORGANKillTre'Niya Millerset Isabelle Brown·
4225-17MORGANUNC AAttack errJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown·
Set 4
11-0UNC AUNC AAttack errJada Williams+1.5
21-1UNC AMORGANKillTre'Niya Millerset Isabelle Brown+1.2
32-1MORGANUNC A×3KillSarah Wadsworthset Olivia Callipo+1.1
43-1UNC AUNC A×3KillAubrey Wilson+1.4
54-1UNC AUNC A×3AceUNC Asheville+1.2
64-2UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+0.9
75-2MORGANUNC AServe errMorgan St.+0.9
85-3UNC AMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+0.9
96-3MORGANUNC ABlockedAzra Arslanoglublk Leah Okogbenin, Albertine van der Goot+0.9
106-4UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+0.9
117-4MORGANUNC A×7KillMaddie Connellyset Elise Jensen+0.9
128-4UNC AUNC A×7AceUNC Ashevilleaced Azra Arslanoglu+1.1
139-4UNC AUNC A×7Ball handlingTre'Niya Miller+0.8
1410-4UNC AUNC A×7BlockedAzra Arslanoglublk Lily Bannister, Leah Okogbenin+0.6
1511-4UNC AUNC A×7AceUNC Ashevilleaced Nathalia Morais+0.5
1612-4UNC AUNC A×7AceUNC Ashevilleaced Jada Williams+0.3
1713-4UNC AUNC A×7KillSarah Wadsworthset Elise Jensen+0.2
1813-5UNC AMORGAN×3Serve errUNC Asheville+0.1
1913-6MORGANMORGAN×3KillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+0.2
2013-7MORGANMORGAN×3BlockedSarah Wadsworthblk Chloe Scott, Jada Williams+0.3
2114-7MORGANUNC AServe errMorgan St.+0.3
2214-8UNC AMORGANKillAzra Arslanogluset Isabelle Brown+0.3
2315-8MORGANUNC AKillLily Bannisterset Elise Jensen+0.3
2415-9UNC AMORGAN×3Attack errAlbertine van der Gootset Catherine Hubiak+0.2
2515-10MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errSarah Wadsworth+0.5
2615-11MORGANMORGAN×3AceMorgan St.aced Maddie Connelly+0.8
2716-11MORGANUNC AKillSarah Wadsworthset Olivia Callipo+0.7
2817-11UNC AUNC AKillLydia Pateset Olivia Callipo+0.6
2917-12UNC AMORGANKillNathalia Moraisset Isabelle Brown+0.3
3017-13MORGANMORGANAttack errMaddie Connelly+0.7
3118-13MORGANUNC AKillLydia Pate+0.7
3218-14UNC AMORGAN×3KillIsabelle Brownset Jada Williams+0.5
3318-15MORGANMORGAN×3Attack errMaddie Connelly+1.1
3418-16MORGANMORGAN×3KillIsabelle Brownset Nathalia Morais+1.7
3519-16MORGANUNC AAttack errAzra Arslanogluset Isabelle Brown+1.4
3619-17UNC AMORGANServe errUNC Asheville+1.3
3719-18MORGAN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
3820-18MORGANUNC AKillLeah Okogbeninset Elise Jensen+2.1
3921-18UNC AUNC AKillOlivia Callipo+2.3
4021-19UNC AMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+1.3
4121-20MORGANMORGANKillJada Williamsset Isabelle Brown+2.8
4222-20MORGANUNC AKillSarah Wadsworthset Elise Jensen+2.5
4323-20UNC AUNC AAceUNC Asheville+2.5
4423-21UNC AMORGANAttack errSarah Wadsworthset Elise Jensen+1.1
4524-21MORGANUNC AKillLydia Pate+1.7
4625-21UNC AUNC AKillLydia Pateset Olivia Callipo+0.8

Score shown after each rally, UNC Asheville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).