Final · 5 setsSun, Nov 8, 2026Watch on FS1

Penn St. def. Wisconsin 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Wisconsin 66.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Nov 8, 2:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Penn St. won at Wisconsin 3-2 (20-25, 25-18, 20-25, 25-19, 15-11) on Sun, Nov 8, 2026. Penn St.'s Kennedy Martin led with 28 kills.

Data through · final Nov 8

Set12345Sets
PENNST20252025153
WISC25182519112

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Alexis Stucky had 55 assists, and Penn St. outlasted Wisconsin.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Penn St.'s RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, Wisconsin was RallyIQ's 67% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Penn St. 2–4 Wisconsin

    The bottom for Penn St., then 23 of the next 38 rallies and the set, 25–19.

    Penn St. 12% → 41%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Penn St. 9–6 Wisconsin

    Wisconsin scored 3 straight to erase a 6–9 deficit and tie it at 9. The match swung to Wisconsin.

    Penn St. 79% → 48%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Penn St. 12–10 Wisconsin

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Penn St., enough to take the set 15–11 and win the match 3–2.

    Penn St. 77% → >99%

Wisconsin above 50Penn St. belowMax swing 15.9%

Penn St.Wisconsin

Sideout %
Penn St. 62.2·Wisconsin 58.1
Break %
Penn St. 41.9·Wisconsin 37.8
Hitting
Penn St. .307·Wisconsin .274
Longest run
Penn St. 5·Wisconsin 5

Kennedy Martin
28 kills on .328, 32 points; 7 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Wisconsin above 50 · Penn St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+15.9% PENNSTrally 203 · set 5

Biggest swing: 15.9% to Penn St. — set 5, PENNST 11-9 WISC. Ace by Alexis Stucky on Anna Bardaro. WISC win probability 42% → 26%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PENNST 36.5%63.5% WISC

Penn St. wins

3-0
7.6%
3-1
13.2%
3-2
15.7%

Wisconsin wins

3-0
19.1%
3-1
24.3%
3-2
20.0%
PENNST break %
37.3% vs this opp
WISC break %
39.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Alexis StuckyAce+15.9%

    Ace by Alexis Stucky on Anna Bardaro

    Set 5 · PENNST 11-9 WISC · PENNST 58% → 74%

  2. 02
    Whitney LauensteinAttack error+13.9%

    Attack error by Whitney Lauenstein

    Set 5 · PENNST 9-9 WISC · WISC 38% → 52%

  3. 03
    Emmi SellmanKill+13.8%

    Kill by Emmi Sellman (set by Ava Falduto)

    Set 5 · PENNST 14-11 WISC · PENNST 81% → 95%

  4. 04
    Natalie WardlowService error+12.4%

    Service error by Natalie Wardlow

    Set 5 · PENNST 13-11 WISC · PENNST 69% → 81%

  5. 05

    Whitney Lauenstein stuffed by Decelise Champion & Lynney Tarnow

    Set 5 · PENNST 9-8 WISC · WISC 27% → 38%

  6. 06
    Kennedy MartinKill+11.1%

    Kill by Kennedy Martin (set by Alexis Stucky)

    Set 5 · PENNST 12-10 WISC · PENNST 66% → 77%

  7. 07

    Kill by Kendall Northern (set by Alexis Stucky)

    Set 5 · PENNST 4-2 WISC · PENNST 51% → 62%

  8. 08
    Emmi SellmanKill+10.5%

    Kill by Emmi Sellman (set by Alexis Stucky)

    Set 5 · PENNST 6-3 WISC · PENNST 63% → 74%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
528764.32813312002132
515739.20510153031.516.5
59314.42900030052.511.5
58214.4290010012210
5418.37555151200005
5103.333213800002
57221.238000100218
5000–402600000
5000–400200000
5000–100600000
4000–000000000
Team totals7222163.307685155531148105
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519850.22000170031.520.5
512322.4090000004214
59522.1821024302110
56011.54500010132.58.5
5228.00046211800215
5000–311800001
57220.25010030010.57.5
52021.00000340010.52.5
5000–5001120000
4000–000000000
2000–000100000
1000–000200000
Team totals5720135.2745638595116998

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 PENNST · WISC 5

Set 1

20-25

Longest run 2 PENNSTWISC 3

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 5 PENNSTWISC 3

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 4 PENNSTWISC 4

Set 4

25-19

Longest run 4 PENNSTWISC 5

Set 5

15-11

Longest run 3 PENNSTWISC 3

Bars above the line = Wisconsin leads, below = Penn St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Penn St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%13/25
42%8/19
2
71%12/17
28%5/18
3
82%9/11
41%7/17
4
64%9/14
50%9/18
5
53%9/17
44%7/16
6
64%9/14
47%8/17
All
62%61/98
42%44/105

Wisconsin

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%13/20
50%10/20
2
80%12/15
35%7/20
3
43%10/23
31%5/16
4
64%9/14
10%1/10
5
47%9/19
50%9/18
6
57%8/14
36%5/14
All
58%61/105
38%37/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

203 rallies

#PENNST-WISCSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0PENNSTPENNSTAcePenn St.aced Audrey Flanagan+2.5
21-1PENNSTWISCKillLynney Tarnowset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.5
31-2WISCWISCKillAudrey Flanaganset Kristen Simon+2.5
42-2WISCPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.6
52-3PENNSTWISC×3Serve errPenn St.+1.6
62-4WISCWISC×3Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+2.4
72-5WISCWISC×3Attack errKennedy Martin+2.2
83-5WISCPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.3
94-5PENNSTPENNSTAttack errDecelise Champion+2.4
104-6PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.6
115-6WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.5
125-7PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.6
135-8WISCWISCAttack errGabrielle Nichols+2.4
146-8WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.4
156-9PENNSTWISCKillLynney Tarnowset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.5
166-10WISCWISCKillEva Travisset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.1
177-10WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+1.1
187-11PENNSTWISCKillAudrey Flanaganset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.3
197-12WISCWISCAttack errEmmi Sellman+1.7
208-12WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.9
218-13PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.1
229-13WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.8
239-14PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.1
2410-14WISCPENNSTAttack errDecelise Champion+0.8
2511-14PENNSTPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Jocelyn Nathan+1.8
2611-15PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.4
2712-15WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.1
2812-16PENNSTWISC×3KillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.4
2912-17WISCWISC×3KillDecelise Championset Anna Bardaro+1.7
3012-18WISCWISC×3BlockedGabrielle Nicholsblk Lynney Tarnow+1.1
3113-18WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.4
3214-18PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.1
3314-19PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.0
3415-19WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.6
3515-20PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.0
3616-20WISCPENNSTServe errWisconsin+0.6
3717-20PENNSTPENNSTKillAlexis Stuckyset Kennedy Martin+1.6
3817-21PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.5
3917-22WISCWISCBlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Decelise Champion, Jaela Auguste+1.3
4018-22WISCPENNSTBlockedDecelise Championblk Kendall Northern, Whitney Lauenstein+0.4
4119-22PENNSTPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.2
4219-23PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.3
4320-23WISCPENNSTKillAlexis Stuckyset Haley Burgdorf+0.6
4420-24PENNSTWISCKillAudrey Flanagan+1.1
4520-25WISCWISCBlockedKennedy Martinblk Jaela Auguste, Charlie Fuerbringer+0.4
Set 2
10-1WISCWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.1
21-1WISCPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.3
32-1PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Jocelyn Nathan+2.2
42-2PENNSTWISCKillEva Travisset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.3
53-2WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.4
63-3PENNSTWISCKillAudrey Flanaganset Kristen Simon+1.4
73-4WISCWISCBlockedKennedy Martinblk Jaela Auguste, Audrey Flanagan+2.2
84-4WISCPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.4
94-5PENNSTWISCAttack errKennedy Martin+1.4
105-5WISCPENNSTServe errWisconsin+1.4
115-6PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.4
126-6WISCPENNSTBlockedJaela Augusteblk Emmi Sellman, Kendall Northern+1.5
137-6PENNSTPENNSTAttack errJaela Auguste+2.5
147-7PENNSTWISCKillEva Travisset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.5
158-7WISCPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+1.6
168-8PENNSTWISCKillCharlie Fuerbringerset Audrey Flanagan+1.6
179-8WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.7
189-9PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.6
1910-9WISCPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.7
2010-10PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+1.7
2111-10WISCPENNST×5KillEmmi Sellmanset Ava Falduto+1.8
2212-10PENNSTPENNST×5Attack errDecelise Champion+2.9
2313-10PENNSTPENNST×5BlockedJaela Augusteblk Kendall Northern, Kennedy Martin+2.9
2414-10PENNSTPENNST×5KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.6
2515-10PENNSTPENNST×5Attack errAudrey Flanagan+2.2
2615-11PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.0
2716-11WISCPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+1.4
2816-12PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.0
2917-12WISCPENNST×3KillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+1.4
3018-12PENNSTPENNST×3KillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+1.6
3119-12PENNSTPENNST×3KillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+1.0
3219-13PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+0.3
3320-13WISCPENNST×4KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.6
3421-13PENNSTPENNST×4BlockedCharlie Fuerbringerblk Gabrielle Nichols+0.4
3522-13PENNSTPENNST×4KillWhitney Lauensteinset Haley Burgdorf+0.2
3623-13PENNSTPENNST×4Attack errEva Travis+0.1
3723-14PENNSTWISC×3KillNatalie Wardlowset Charlie Fuerbringer·
3823-15WISCWISC×3KillEva Travisset Charlie Fuerbringer·
3923-16WISCWISC×3BlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Decelise Champion, Natalie Wardlow·
4024-16WISCPENNSTServe errWisconsin+0.1
4124-17PENNSTWISCKillNatalie Wardlowset Charlie Fuerbringer·
4224-18WISCWISCAttack errKennedy Martin·
4325-18WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.1
Set 3
11-0PENNSTPENNSTAttack errCharlie Fuerbringer+3.5
21-1PENNSTWISCServe errPenn St.+2.1
31-2WISCWISCKillAudrey Flanaganset Kristen Simon+3.4
42-2WISCPENNSTServe errWisconsin+2.2
53-2PENNSTPENNSTKillGabrielle Nichols+3.7
63-3PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.2
74-3WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Lexi Gin+2.4
84-4PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.3
95-4WISCPENNSTServe errWisconsin+2.4
105-5PENNSTWISC×3KillEva Travisset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.3
115-6WISCWISC×3Attack errKendall Northern+3.8
125-7WISCWISC×3BlockedKendall Northernblk Eva Travis, Lynney Tarnow+3.6
136-7WISCPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+2.2
146-8PENNSTWISCKillEva Travisset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.3
157-8WISCPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.2
167-9PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.3
178-9WISCPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+2.3
188-10PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.4
199-10WISCPENNSTServe errWisconsin+2.3
209-11PENNSTWISC×3KillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.5
219-12WISCWISC×3KillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+3.6
229-13WISCWISC×3KillAudrey Flanaganset Charlie Fuerbringer+3.0
2310-13WISCPENNSTBlockedAudrey Flanaganblk Kennedy Martin, Gabrielle Nichols+1.6
2410-14PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.9
2511-14WISCPENNSTServe errWisconsin+1.6
2611-15PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.9
2712-15WISCPENNST×4KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+1.6
2813-15PENNSTPENNST×4Attack errEva Travis+3.4
2914-15PENNSTPENNST×4KillKendall Northern+4.3
3015-15PENNSTPENNST×4KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+5.2
3115-16PENNSTWISC×3Attack errKendall Northern+3.4
3215-17WISCWISC×3KillAudrey Flanaganset Charlie Fuerbringer+5.1
3315-18WISCWISC×3AceWisconsinaced Whitney Lauenstein+4.4
3416-18WISCPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.2
3517-18PENNSTPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+4.8
3618-18PENNSTPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+6.1
3718-19PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+4.1
3818-20WISCWISCKillDecelise Championset Anna Bardaro+6.2
3919-20WISCPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+3.3
4019-21PENNSTWISC×4Serve errPenn St.+4.1
4119-22WISCWISC×4KillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+5.1
4219-23WISCWISC×4BlockedKennedy Martinblk Jaela Auguste, Audrey Flanagan+3.0
4319-24WISCWISC×4Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+1.1
4420-24WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.1
4520-25PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+0.4
Set 4
10-1WISCWISCAceWisconsinaced Whitney Lauenstein+2.9
20-2WISCWISCKillDecelise Championset Anna Bardaro+2.8
31-2WISCPENNSTKillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+1.7
41-3PENNSTWISCKillAudrey Flanaganset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.7
52-3WISCPENNSTAttack errAudrey Flanagan+1.7
62-4PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.8
73-4WISCPENNST×4KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+1.8
84-4PENNSTPENNST×4KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+3.1
95-4PENNSTPENNST×4Attack errDecelise Champion+3.4
106-4PENNSTPENNST×4Attack errAudrey Flanagan+3.5
116-5PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+2.0
127-5WISCPENNST×4KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.3
138-5PENNSTPENNST×4AcePenn St.aced Audrey Flanagan+3.6
149-5PENNSTPENNST×4AcePenn St.aced Anna Bardaro+3.4
1510-5PENNSTPENNST×4AcePenn St.aced Audrey Flanagan+3.0
1610-6PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.5
1711-6WISCPENNSTKillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+1.9
1812-6PENNSTPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Jocelyn Nathan+2.5
1912-7PENNSTWISCKillCharlie Fuerbringerset Eva Travis+1.2
2012-8WISCWISCAceWisconsinaced Whitney Lauenstein+2.4
2113-8WISCPENNSTKillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+2.0
2213-9PENNSTWISCKillLynney Tarnowset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.5
2313-10WISCWISCAttack errWhitney Lauenstein+2.9
2414-10WISCPENNST×3KillAlexis Stuckyset Whitney Lauenstein+2.3
2515-10PENNSTPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+3.1
2616-10PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+2.4
2716-11PENNSTWISCKillLynney Tarnowset Charlie Fuerbringer+1.0
2817-11WISCPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.5
2918-11PENNSTPENNSTAttack errAudrey Flanagan+1.6
3018-12PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+0.5
3119-12WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.9
3219-13PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+0.5
3320-13WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+0.8
3420-14PENNSTWISC×5KillEva Travisset Charlie Fuerbringer+0.4
3520-15WISCWISC×5Attack errAlexis Stucky+1.0
3620-16WISCWISC×5KillDecelise Championset Anna Bardaro+1.6
3720-17WISCWISC×5BlockedEmmi Sellmanblk Lynney Tarnow, Charlie Fuerbringer+2.6
3820-18WISCWISC×5Attack errKennedy Martin+3.8
3921-18WISCPENNST×3KillHaley Burgdorfset Alexis Stucky+3.5
4022-18PENNSTPENNST×3KillKendall Northern+3.9
4123-18PENNSTPENNST×3KillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+2.1
4223-19PENNSTWISCKillLynney Tarnowset Charlie Fuerbringer+0.4
4324-19WISCPENNSTBlockedDecelise Championblk Whitney Lauenstein, Kendall Northern+1.0
4425-19PENNSTPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+1.4
Set 5
10-1PENNSTWISCKillLynney Tarnowset Charlie Fuerbringer+5.5
21-1WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+5.7
31-2PENNSTWISCKillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+5.7
42-2WISCPENNST×3KillGabrielle Nicholsset Alexis Stucky+5.9
53-2PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+10.3
64-2PENNSTPENNST×3KillKendall Northernset Alexis Stucky+10.6
74-3PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+5.9
85-3WISCPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Ava Falduto+7.0
96-3PENNSTPENNST×3KillEmmi Sellmanset Alexis Stucky+10.5
107-3PENNSTPENNST×3KillAlexis Stuckyset Jocelyn Nathan+9.2
117-4PENNSTWISCServe errKennedy Martin+4.2
128-4WISCPENNSTBlockedDecelise Championblk Emmi Sellman, Kendall Northern+5.9
138-5PENNSTWISCKillJaela Augusteset Charlie Fuerbringer+4.1
148-6WISCWISCBad setAlexis Stucky+8.9
159-6WISCPENNSTKillWhitney Lauensteinset Alexis Stucky+7.5
169-7PENNSTWISC×3KillDecelise Championset Charlie Fuerbringer+5.5
179-8WISCWISC×3BlockedWhitney Lauensteinblk Decelise Champion, Lynney Tarnow+11.7
189-9WISCWISC×3Attack errWhitney Lauenstein+13.9
1910-9WISCPENNSTBlockedDecelise Championblk Whitney Lauenstein, Gabrielle Nichols+9.9
2011-9PENNSTPENNSTAceAlexis Stuckyaced Anna Bardaro+15.9
2111-10PENNSTWISCServe errAlexis Stucky+7.8
2212-10WISCPENNSTKillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+11.1
2312-11PENNSTWISCKillAudrey Flanaganset Anna Bardaro+8.0
2413-11WISCPENNST×3Serve errNatalie Wardlow+12.4
2514-11PENNSTPENNST×3KillEmmi Sellmanset Ava Falduto+13.8
2615-11PENNSTPENNST×3KillKennedy Martinset Alexis Stucky+4.9

Score shown after each rally, Penn St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).