Missouri at Bowling Green

Set	1*	2*	3	Sets
MIZZOU	25	17	–	1
BGSU	16	20	–	0

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

Live · refreshes every 30s

Win probability

BGSU above 50 · MIZZOU below

Biggest swing: 1.9% to Bowling Green — set 2, MIZZOU 3-6 BGSU. Kill by Cecily Waynar (set by Amanda Otten). BGSU win probability 17% → 19%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MIZZOU 75.8%24.2% BGSU

Missouri wins

3-0

27.7%

3-1

28.9%

3-2

19.2%

Bowling Green wins

3-0

4.2%

3-1

8.2%

3-2

11.7%

MIZZOU break %: 44.7% vs this opp
BGSU break %: 39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Cecily WaynarKill+1.9%
Kill by Cecily Waynar (set by Amanda Otten)
Set 2 · MIZZOU 3-6 BGSU · BGSU 17% → 19%
02
Avery HobsonKill+1.9%
Kill by Avery Hobson
Set 2 · MIZZOU 3-7 BGSU · BGSU 19% → 21%
03
Maizy AgnelloAttack error+1.8%
Maizy Agnello stuffed by Helen Wilford & Amanda Otten
Set 2 · MIZZOU 4-9 BGSU · BGSU 21% → 23%
04
Karli MolnauKill+1.8%
Kill by Karli Molnau
Set 2 · MIZZOU 1-4 BGSU · BGSU 16% → 18%
05
Helen WilfordAttack error+1.8%
Attack error by Helen Wilford
Set 1 · MIZZOU 2-0 BGSU · MIZZOU 77% → 79%
06
Eva SmithAttack error+1.8%
Eva Smith stuffed by Cecily Waynar
Set 2 · MIZZOU 1-3 BGSU · BGSU 15% → 16%
07
Amanda OttenKill+1.7%
Kill by Amanda Otten
Set 1 · MIZZOU 8-6 BGSU · BGSU 19% → 21%
08
Helen WilfordAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Helen Wilford
Set 2 · MIZZOU 17-20 BGSU · MIZZOU 74% → 76%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Missouriaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Eva SmithMB	2	4	1	8	.375	1	0	1	0	0	2	1	5
12Lauren LarkinMB	2	3	2	8	.125	1	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
40Grace O'reillyOH	2	3	1	7	.286	1	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	4.5
15Paige FelderOH	2	2	2	5	.000	0	0	1	2	2	1	0.5	2.5
2Sierra DudleyS	2	0	0	2	.000	6	2	0	1	0	0	0	2
1Zoey MatiasL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
7Kimani JohnsonOH	2	6	0	9	.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
3Maizy AgnelloOH	2	2	2	8	.000	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	3
21Lydia StahleyOH	2	1	0	5	.200	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2
4Ainoah CruzDS	2	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
18Claire MorrisseyOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Piper BatieS	2	0	0	0	–	7	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
0Nina MandovicS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Kaylen RushL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Ceylin KuyanOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Maca LobaglioOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23Tia PhinezyMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Millie BauerMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		21	8	54	.241	19	4	2	22	5	10	5	42

Bowling Greenhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
16Amanda OttenS	2	5	0	6	.833	5	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	6
9Avery HobsonOH	2	5	3	14	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
23Anastasija BozicOH	2	4	0	12	.333	0	1	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
6Cecily WaynarOPP	2	3	3	7	.000	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	1.5	5.5
12Karli MolnauOH	2	4	2	11	.182	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Helen WilfordMB	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	2
3Avery AndersDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
2Molly BeattyS	2	0	0	1	.000	5	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
1Sydnie HernandezDS	2	0	0	1	.000	5	0	2	5	0	0	0	0	0
8Vivian JonesOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Katherine EignerDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Alivia BrownDS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	6	2	0	0	0	0
13Kendall WilliamsMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Ania MagierMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15Marin DunawayOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Marija TabakOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20Edyta WaclawczykOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Fetia RoviraMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Makiaya TurnerOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Ava BuddelmeyerOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		21	10	57	.193	17	5	6	20	4	1	10	6	36

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 MIZZOU · BGSU 4

Set 1*

25-16

Longest run 6 MIZZOUBGSU 4

Set 2*

17-20

Longest run 5 MIZZOUBGSU 3

Bars above the line = Bowling Green leads, below = Missouri leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

78 rallies

Rally log

#	MIZZOU-BGSU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Ainoah Cruz	+1.3
2	2-0	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Helen Wilford		+1.8
3	2-1	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson		+1.3
4	3-1	BGSU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Grace O'reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+1.3
5	4-1	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	Karli Molnau	blk Eva Smith, Paige Felder	+1.6
6	5-1	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Amanda Otten	+1.4
7	5-2	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Amanda Otten	+1.0
8	6-2	BGSU	MIZZOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+1.0
9	7-2	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.2
10	7-3	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+0.8
11	8-3	BGSU	MIZZOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.9
12	8-4	MIZZOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Sydnie Hernandez	+0.8
13	8-5	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	BGSU server	aced Paige Felder	+1.4
14	8-6	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Amanda Otten		+1.7
15	9-6	BGSU	MIZZOU×6	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Ainoah Cruz	+1.3
16	10-6	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Lauren Larkin, Grace O'reilly	+1.6
17	11-6	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Kill	Lauren Larkin		+1.3
18	12-6	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced TEAM	+1.0
19	13-6	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Attack err	Cecily Waynar	blk Lauren Larkin, Grace O'reilly	+0.7
20	14-6	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×6	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Cecily Waynar	+0.5
21	14-7	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Molly Beatty	+0.3
22	15-7	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Maizy Agnello	set Lauren Larkin	+0.3
23	16-7	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Avery Hobson	blk Lauren Larkin, Grace O'reilly	+0.3
24	16-8	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Sydnie Hernandez	+0.1
25	17-8	BGSU	MIZZOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.2
26	17-9	MIZZOU	BGSU×4	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Sydnie Hernandez	+0.1
27	17-10	BGSU	BGSU×4	Attack err	Grace O'reilly	blk Anastasija Bozic, Helen Wilford	+0.3
28	17-11	BGSU	BGSU×4	Ace	BGSU server	aced Zoey Matias	+0.4
29	17-12	BGSU	BGSU×4	Ace	BGSU server	aced TEAM	+0.7
30	18-12	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Eva Smith	set Sierra Dudley	+0.7
31	18-13	MIZZOU	BGSU	Attack err	Paige Felder	set Zoey Matias	+0.5
32	19-13	BGSU	MIZZOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.6
33	20-13	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Kill	Maizy Agnello	set Eva Smith	+0.5
34	20-14	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Molly Beatty	+0.2
35	21-14	BGSU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Cecily Waynar	blk Kimani Johnson, Eva Smith	+0.3
36	21-15	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic		+0.2
37	22-15	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson		+0.3
38	22-16	MIZZOU	BGSU	Attack err	Maizy Agnello	blk Cecily Waynar, Amanda Otten	+0.1
39	23-16	BGSU	MIZZOU×3	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+0.2
40	24-16	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Attack err	Avery Hobson		+0.1
41	25-16	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×3	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Alivia Brown	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MIZZOU	BGSU	Attack err	Paige Felder	blk Helen Wilford, Karli Molnau	+1.2
2	1-1	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Eva Smith	set Sierra Dudley	+1.1
3	1-2	MIZZOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Sydnie Hernandez	+1.2
4	1-3	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Eva Smith	blk Cecily Waynar	+1.8
5	1-4	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Karli Molnau		+1.8
6	2-4	BGSU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Karli Molnau	set Amanda Otten	+1.2
7	3-4	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Anastasija Bozic	blk Kimani Johnson	+1.7
8	3-5	MIZZOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Eva Smith	set Piper Batie	+1.4
9	3-6	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Cecily Waynar	set Amanda Otten	+1.9
10	3-7	BGSU	BGSU×3	Kill	Avery Hobson		+1.9
11	4-7	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Lauren Larkin	set Piper Batie	+1.2
12	4-8	MIZZOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Amanda Otten		+1.4
13	4-9	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Maizy Agnello	blk Helen Wilford, Amanda Otten	+1.8
14	4-10	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	BGSU server	aced Paige Felder	+1.6
15	5-10	BGSU	MIZZOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.9
16	5-11	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Alivia Brown	+1.2
17	5-12	BGSU	BGSU	Attack err	Lauren Larkin	blk Avery Hobson, Helen Wilford	+1.4
18	6-12	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Paige Felder	set Grace O'reilly	+0.7
19	6-13	MIZZOU	BGSU×3	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Molly Beatty	+1.0
20	6-14	BGSU	BGSU×3	Ace	BGSU server	aced Maizy Agnello	+1.1
21	6-15	BGSU	BGSU×3	Attack err	Grace O'reilly		+0.8
22	7-15	BGSU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Karli Molnau	set Molly Beatty	+0.3
23	8-15	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Attack err	Cecily Waynar	set Cecily Waynar	+0.7
24	9-15	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Lydia Stahley	set Ainoah Cruz	+0.9
25	10-15	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Piper Batie	+1.2
26	11-15	MIZZOU	MIZZOU×5	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Piper Batie	+1.5
27	11-16	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Anastasija Bozic	set Molly Beatty	+1.5
28	12-16	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Eva Smith	set Piper Batie	+1.0
29	12-17	MIZZOU	BGSU	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+1.5
30	12-18	BGSU	BGSU	Kill	Amanda Otten	set Alivia Brown	+1.6
31	13-18	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Kimani Johnson	set Piper Batie	+0.7
32	13-19	MIZZOU	BGSU	Kill	Avery Hobson	set Sydnie Hernandez	+1.1
33	14-19	BGSU	MIZZOU	Serve err	BGSU server		+0.6
34	15-19	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Ace	MIZZOU server	aced Alivia Brown	+1.3
35	15-20	MIZZOU	BGSU	Attack err	Lauren Larkin	set Sierra Dudley	+1.4
36	16-20	BGSU	MIZZOU	Kill	Grace O'reilly	set Sierra Dudley	+0.8
37	17-20	MIZZOU	MIZZOU	Attack err	Helen Wilford		+1.7

Score shown after each rally, Missouri first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.