Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 19, 2026

Missouri def. Bowling Green 3–1

Missouri won at Bowling Green 3-1 (25-16, 24-26, 25-20, 25-23) on Sat, Sep 19, 2026. Lydia Stahley led Missouri with 11 kills; Bowling Green's Avery Hobson had a match-high 13.

Data through · final Sep 19

Set1234Sets
MIZZOU252425253
BGSU162620231

Win probability

Bowling Green above 50 · Missouri below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.5% MIZZOUrally 184 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.5% to Missouri — set 4, MIZZOU 25-23 BGSU. Attack error by Cecily Waynar. BGSU win probability 8% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MIZZOU 76.0%24.0% BGSU

Missouri wins

3-0
27.9%
3-1
29.0%
3-2
19.1%

Bowling Green wins

3-0
4.2%
3-1
8.2%
3-2
11.6%
MIZZOU break %
44.4% vs this opp
BGSU break %
39.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Cecily WaynarAttack error+8.5%

    Attack error by Cecily Waynar

    Set 4 · MIZZOU 25-23 BGSU · MIZZOU 92% → 100%

  2. 02
    Cecily WaynarKill+7.8%

    Kill by Cecily Waynar

    Set 2 · MIZZOU 24-26 BGSU · BGSU 21% → 29%

  3. 03

    Maizy Agnello stuffed by Cecily Waynar & Ava Buddelmeyer

    Set 4 · MIZZOU 23-23 BGSU · BGSU 8% → 15%

  4. 04

    Kill by Anastasija Bozic (set by Molly Beatty)

    Set 2 · MIZZOU 24-25 BGSU · BGSU 14% → 21%

  5. 05
    Paige FelderKill+6.8%

    Kill by Paige Felder (set by Sierra Dudley)

    Set 4 · MIZZOU 24-23 BGSU · MIZZOU 85% → 92%

  6. 06
    Karli MolnauKill+6.0%

    Kill by Karli Molnau (set by Molly Beatty)

    Set 2 · MIZZOU 24-24 BGSU · BGSU 8% → 14%

  7. 07
    Avery HobsonAttack error+5.7%

    Attack error by Avery Hobson

    Set 4 · MIZZOU 21-20 BGSU · MIZZOU 83% → 89%

  8. 08
    Eva SmithKill+5.1%

    Kill by Eva Smith (set by Cecily Waynar)

    Set 4 · MIZZOU 22-20 BGSU · MIZZOU 89% → 94%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49216.43811300153.513.5
48525.120000530219
47420.150100200429
4429.222110100427
4002.0001521300002
2001.000000010000
47013.538000000218
4001.0001712100001
4003.0005002200000
311222.4090412000015
3239-.111010310003
1000–11000010.51.5
1001.000000010211
1000–000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals4818122.246411174081201199
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413731.19420112010.513.5
411629.17232061010.513.5
412529.24110020010.512.5
45412.08302301031.58.5
4607.8571401300217
4227.00001120153.56.5
4000–131700003
4002.000702810000
4001.0001702600000
3000–201620000
2116.000000100212
1204.50000010010.52.5
1000–001000000
Team totals5225128.211478134311116985

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MIZZOU · BGSU 4

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 6 MIZZOUBGSU 4

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 4 MIZZOUBGSU 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 5 MIZZOUBGSU 4

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 4 MIZZOUBGSU 4

Bars above the line = Bowling Green leads, below = Missouri leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Missouri

SlotSideout %Break %
1
89%8/9
63%10/16
2
44%8/18
27%3/11
3
60%6/10
59%10/17
4
75%6/8
33%3/9
5
60%6/10
25%2/8
6
75%6/8
50%6/12
All
63%40/63
47%34/73

Bowling Green

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
13%1/8
2
64%7/11
53%9/17
3
44%7/16
30%3/10
4
75%6/8
33%3/9
5
55%6/11
40%4/10
6
38%5/13
33%3/9
All
53%39/73
37%23/63

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

184 rallies

#MIZZOU-BGSUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BGSUMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Ainoah Cruz+1.3
22-0MIZZOUMIZZOUAttack errHelen Wilford+1.8
32-1MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.3
43-1BGSUMIZZOU×3KillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+1.3
54-1MIZZOUMIZZOU×3BlockedKarli Molnaublk Paige Felder, Eva Smith+1.6
65-1MIZZOUMIZZOU×3KillKimani Johnsonset Amanda Otten+1.4
75-2MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.0
86-2BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+1.0
97-2MIZZOUMIZZOUBad setAmanda Otten+1.2
107-3MIZZOUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+0.8
118-3BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+0.9
128-4MIZZOUBGSU×3KillAmanda Ottenset Sydnie Hernandez+0.8
138-5BGSUBGSU×3AceBowling Greenaced Paige Felder+1.4
148-6BGSUBGSU×3KillAmanda Otten+1.7
159-6BGSUMIZZOU×6KillKimani Johnsonset Ainoah Cruz+1.3
1610-6MIZZOUMIZZOU×6BlockedAvery Hobsonblk Grace O'Reilly, Lauren Larkin+1.6
1711-6MIZZOUMIZZOU×6KillLauren Larkin+1.3
1812-6MIZZOUMIZZOU×6AceMissouri+1.0
1913-6MIZZOUMIZZOU×6BlockedCecily Waynarblk Grace O'Reilly, Lauren Larkin+0.7
2014-6MIZZOUMIZZOU×6AceMissouriaced Cecily Waynar+0.5
2114-7MIZZOUBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Molly Beatty+0.2
2215-7BGSUMIZZOUKillMaizy Agnelloset Lauren Larkin+0.3
2316-7MIZZOUMIZZOUBlockedAvery Hobsonblk Grace O'Reilly, Lauren Larkin+0.3
2416-8MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Sydnie Hernandez+0.1
2517-8BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+0.2
2617-9MIZZOUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Sydnie Hernandez+0.1
2717-10BGSUBGSU×4BlockedGrace O'Reillyblk Helen Wilford, Anastasija Bozic+0.3
2817-11BGSUBGSU×4AceBowling Greenaced Zoey Matias+0.4
2917-12BGSUBGSU×4AceBowling Green+0.7
3018-12BGSUMIZZOUKillEva Smithset Sierra Dudley+0.6
3118-13MIZZOUBGSUAttack errPaige Felder+0.4
3219-13BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+0.6
3320-13MIZZOUMIZZOUKillMaizy Agnelloset Eva Smith+0.5
3420-14MIZZOUBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Molly Beatty+0.2
3521-14BGSUMIZZOUBlockedCecily Waynarblk Eva Smith, Kimani Johnson+0.3
3621-15MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+0.1
3722-15BGSUMIZZOUKillKimani Johnsonset Piper Batie+0.2
3822-16MIZZOUBGSUBlockedMaizy Agnelloblk Amanda Otten, Cecily Waynar+0.1
3923-16BGSUMIZZOU×3KillLauren Larkinset Sierra Dudley+0.2
4024-16MIZZOUMIZZOU×3Attack errAvery Hobson+0.1
4125-16MIZZOUMIZZOU×3AceMissouriaced Alivia Brown·
Set 2
10-1MIZZOUBGSUBlockedPaige Felderblk Karli Molnau, Helen Wilford+1.2
21-1BGSUMIZZOUKillEva Smithset Sierra Dudley+1.1
31-2MIZZOUBGSU×3KillKarli Molnauset Sydnie Hernandez+1.2
41-3BGSUBGSU×3Attack errEva Smith+1.8
51-4BGSUBGSU×3KillKarli Molnau+1.8
62-4BGSUMIZZOUBad setAmanda Otten+1.2
72-5MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.4
83-5BGSUMIZZOUKillEva Smithset Piper Batie+1.2
93-6MIZZOUBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+1.4
103-7BGSUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Kimani Johnson+1.9
114-7BGSUMIZZOUKillLauren Larkinset Piper Batie+1.2
124-8MIZZOUBGSU×3KillAmanda Otten+1.4
134-9BGSUBGSU×3BlockedMaizy Agnelloblk Amanda Otten, Helen Wilford+1.8
144-10BGSUBGSU×3AceBowling Greenaced Paige Felder+1.6
155-10BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+0.9
165-11MIZZOUBGSUKillAmanda Ottenset Alivia Brown+1.2
175-12BGSUBGSUBlockedLauren Larkinblk Helen Wilford+1.4
186-12BGSUMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Grace O'Reilly+0.7
196-13MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Molly Beatty+1.0
206-14BGSUBGSUAceBowling Greenaced Maizy Agnello+1.1
217-14BGSUMIZZOUKillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+0.5
227-15MIZZOUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+0.7
238-15BGSUMIZZOU×4Attack errCecily Waynar+0.5
249-15MIZZOUMIZZOU×4KillLydia Stahleyset Ainoah Cruz+0.9
2510-15MIZZOUMIZZOU×4KillKimani Johnsonset Piper Batie+1.2
2611-15MIZZOUMIZZOU×4KillKimani Johnsonset Piper Batie+1.5
2711-16MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Molly Beatty+1.4
2812-16BGSUMIZZOUKillEva Smithset Piper Batie+1.0
2912-17MIZZOUBGSUServe errMissouri+1.4
3012-18BGSUBGSUKillAmanda Ottenset Alivia Brown+1.5
3113-18BGSUMIZZOUKillKimani Johnsonset Piper Batie+0.7
3213-19MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Sydnie Hernandez+1.1
3314-19BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+0.6
3415-19MIZZOUMIZZOUAceMissouriaced Alivia Brown+1.3
3515-20MIZZOUBGSUAttack errLauren Larkin+1.4
3616-20BGSUMIZZOU×4KillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+0.8
3717-20MIZZOUMIZZOU×4Attack errHelen Wilford+1.7
3818-20MIZZOUMIZZOU×4Attack errKarli Molnau+2.3
3919-20MIZZOUMIZZOU×4Attack errKarli Molnau+3.0
4019-21MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Molly Beatty+2.8
4120-21BGSUMIZZOUAttack errKarli Molnau+2.2
4220-22MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Sydnie Hernandez+3.1
4321-22BGSUMIZZOU×4KillPaige Felderset Piper Batie+2.3
4422-22MIZZOUMIZZOU×4KillLydia Stahleyset Ainoah Cruz+4.4
4523-22MIZZOUMIZZOU×4KillLydia Stahley+5.0
4624-22MIZZOUMIZZOU×4Attack errAnastasija Bozic+4.3
4724-23MIZZOUBGSU×4KillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+1.7
4824-24BGSUBGSU×4KillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+6.0
4924-25BGSUBGSU×4KillAnastasija Bozicset Molly Beatty+6.9
5024-26BGSUBGSU×4KillCecily Waynar+7.8
Set 3
11-0BGSUMIZZOU×3KillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+2.0
22-0MIZZOUMIZZOU×3BlockedKarli Molnaublk Grace O'Reilly, Eva Smith+2.6
33-0MIZZOUMIZZOU×3Attack errAvery Hobson+2.3
43-1MIZZOUBGSU×3KillKarli Molnauset Amanda Otten+1.6
53-2BGSUBGSU×3Attack errPaige Felder+2.6
63-3BGSUBGSU×3Attack errGrace O'Reilly+3.0
74-3BGSUMIZZOU×3KillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+2.1
85-3MIZZOUMIZZOU×3KillEva Smith+2.8
96-3MIZZOUMIZZOU×3AceMissouri+2.5
106-4MIZZOUBGSUServe errMissouri+1.7
117-4BGSUMIZZOUKillEva Smithset Piper Batie+1.8
128-4MIZZOUMIZZOUKillEva Smith+2.2
138-5MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Avery Anders+1.5
149-5BGSUMIZZOUKillLydia Stahleyset Piper Batie+1.6
1510-5MIZZOUMIZZOUBlockedAnastasija Bozicblk Kimani Johnson, Lauren Larkin+1.9
1610-6MIZZOUBGSUServe errMissouri+1.2
1711-6BGSUMIZZOUKillLauren Larkinset Piper Batie+1.3
1811-7MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Anastasija Bozic+1.2
1912-7BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+1.3
2012-8MIZZOUBGSUAttack errPaige Felder+1.2
2113-8BGSUMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Sierra Dudley+1.4
2213-9MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Molly Beatty+1.2
2314-9BGSUMIZZOUKillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+1.4
2414-10MIZZOUBGSUServe errMissouri+1.1
2514-11BGSUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Sydnie Hernandez+2.2
2615-11BGSUMIZZOUKillKimani Johnsonset Piper Batie+1.8
2715-12MIZZOUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+1.6
2816-12BGSUMIZZOUKillLydia Stahleyset Piper Batie+1.9
2917-12MIZZOUMIZZOUAceMissouriaced Sydnie Hernandez+2.0
3017-13MIZZOUBGSUServe errMissouri+1.1
3118-13BGSUMIZZOUKillLydia Stahleyset Piper Batie+1.4
3218-14MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Amanda Otten+1.0
3318-15BGSUBGSUAceBowling Greenaced Paige Felder+2.1
3419-15BGSUMIZZOU×5Serve errBowling Green+2.0
3520-15MIZZOUMIZZOU×5AceMissouri+1.9
3621-15MIZZOUMIZZOU×5AceMissouri+1.1
3722-15MIZZOUMIZZOU×5AceMissouriaced Anastasija Bozic+0.5
3823-15MIZZOUMIZZOU×5Attack errAvery Hobson+0.2
3923-16MIZZOUBGSUServe errMissouri·
4024-16BGSUMIZZOUKillGrace O'Reillyset Sierra Dudley+0.1
4124-17MIZZOUBGSU×4KillAvery Hobsonset Anastasija Bozic·
4224-18BGSUBGSU×4KillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty·
4324-19BGSUBGSU×4Attack errEva Smith+0.1
4424-20BGSUBGSU×4BlockedGrace O'Reillyblk Ava Buddelmeyer, Helen Wilford+0.3
4525-20BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+0.4
Set 4
11-0MIZZOUMIZZOU×3AceMissouriaced Avery Hobson+2.3
22-0MIZZOUMIZZOU×3KillAvery Hobsonset Molly Beatty+2.1
33-0MIZZOUMIZZOU×3Attack errAnastasija Bozic+1.9
43-1MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Molly Beatty+1.3
54-1BGSUMIZZOUKillEva Smithset Sierra Dudley+1.4
64-2MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Molly Beatty+1.4
74-3BGSUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Karli Molnau+2.2
85-3BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+1.6
95-4MIZZOUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Avery Hobson+1.6
106-4BGSUMIZZOUKillLydia Stahleyset Piper Batie+1.6
116-5MIZZOUBGSUKillAnastasija Bozicset Amanda Otten+1.7
127-5BGSUMIZZOUKillLydia Stahleyset Piper Batie+1.7
137-6MIZZOUBGSU×3Serve errMissouri+1.7
147-7BGSU
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.7
157-8BGSUBGSU×3BlockedLydia Stahleyblk Avery Hobson, Cecily Waynar+3.0
168-8BGSUMIZZOUKillLydia Stahleyset Ainoah Cruz+2.0
178-9MIZZOUBGSUKillCecily Waynarset Amanda Otten+2.3
189-9BGSUMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Sierra Dudley+2.1
199-10MIZZOUBGSUKillAvery Hobsonset Molly Beatty+2.3
209-11BGSUBGSUAttack errGrace O'Reilly+3.4
2110-11BGSUMIZZOU×3KillPaige Felderset Sierra Dudley+2.2
2211-11MIZZOUMIZZOU×3BlockedAnastasija Bozicblk Eva Smith+3.2
2312-11MIZZOUMIZZOU×3BlockedAnastasija Bozicblk Eva Smith, Maca Lobaglio+3.2
2412-12MIZZOUBGSUAttack errPaige Felder+2.3
2513-12BGSUMIZZOUAttack errAnastasija Bozic+2.3
2613-13MIZZOUBGSUKillKarli Molnauset Molly Beatty+2.4
2713-14BGSUBGSUKillHelen Wilford+3.8
2814-14BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+2.6
2915-14MIZZOUMIZZOUBlockedAva Buddelmeyerblk Tia Phinezy, Maca Lobaglio+3.6
3015-15MIZZOUBGSU×4KillMarija Tabakset Amanda Otten+2.7
3115-16BGSUBGSU×4BlockedLydia Stahleyblk Helen Wilford, Marija Tabak+4.2
3215-17BGSUBGSU×4AceBowling Greenaced Maca Lobaglio+4.4
3315-18BGSUBGSU×4KillAmanda Ottenset Avery Hobson+4.3
3416-18BGSUMIZZOU×3KillLydia Stahleyset Piper Batie+2.4
3517-18MIZZOUMIZZOU×3Attack errAvery Hobson+4.1
3618-18MIZZOUMIZZOU×3KillLydia Stahleyset Tia Phinezy+4.6
3718-19MIZZOUBGSUKillHelen Wilfordset Amanda Otten+3.7
3819-19BGSUMIZZOUServe errBowling Green+3.5
3919-20MIZZOUBGSUKillMarija Tabakset Amanda Otten+4.1
4020-20BGSUMIZZOU×4Serve errBowling Green+3.8
4121-20MIZZOUMIZZOU×4Attack errAvery Hobson+5.7
4222-20MIZZOUMIZZOU×4KillEva Smithset Cecily Waynar+5.1
4323-20MIZZOUMIZZOU×4AceMissouriaced Avery Hobson+3.7
4423-21MIZZOUBGSU×3KillAvery Hobsonset Anastasija Bozic+1.5
4523-22BGSUBGSU×3KillAva Buddelmeyerset Molly Beatty+4.1
4623-23BGSUBGSU×3BlockedMaizy Agnelloblk Cecily Waynar, Ava Buddelmeyer+7.3
4724-23BGSUMIZZOUKillPaige Felderset Sierra Dudley+6.8
4825-23MIZZOUMIZZOUAttack errCecily Waynar+8.5

Score shown after each rally, Missouri first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).