North Carolina def. Wake Forest 3–2
North Carolina won at Wake Forest 3-2 (25-21, 23-25, 26-24, 30-32, 15-9) on Sun, Sep 27, 2026. Safi Hampton led North Carolina with 22 kills; Wake Forest's Lyla Stewart had a match-high 24.
Data through · final Sep 27
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 25 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 15 | 3 |
| WAKE | 21 | 25 | 24 | 32 | 9 | 2 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 11.4% to Wake Forest — set 4, UNC 30-32 WAKE. Kill by Sanaa Williams (set by Emma Keeping). WAKE win probability 18% → 29%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
North Carolina wins
Wake Forest wins
- UNC break %
- 46.0% vs this opp
- WAKE break %
- 36.0% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Sanaa WilliamsKill+11.4%
Kill by Sanaa Williams (set by Emma Keeping)
Set 4 · UNC 30-32 WAKE · WAKE 18% → 29%
- 02Lyla StewartKill+8.6%
Kill by Lyla Stewart (set by Emma Keeping)
Set 3 · UNC 24-24 WAKE · WAKE 12% → 20%
- 03Mackenzie BoyerAttack error+8.0%
Attack error by Mackenzie Boyer
Set 4 · UNC 28-29 WAKE · WAKE 10% → 18%
- 04Ryleigh WhitekettleAttack error+7.3%
Attack error by Ryleigh Whitekettle
Set 5 · UNC 2-1 WAKE · UNC 70% → 77%
- 05Safi HamptonKill+7.3%
Kill by Safi Hampton (set by Zoe Behrendt)
Set 3 · UNC 26-24 WAKE · UNC 86% → 93%
- 06Laynie SmithKill+6.7%
Kill by Laynie Smith (set by Julia Bohlinger)
Set 5 · UNC 4-2 WAKE · UNC 77% → 84%
- 07
- 08Wake ForestService error+6.2%
Wake Forest service error
Set 3 · UNC 25-24 WAKE · UNC 80% → 86%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 22 | 3 | 51 | .373 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 23.5 | |
| 5 | 15 | 3 | 33 | .364 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4.5 | 19.5 | |
| 5 | 10 | 5 | 21 | .238 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 13 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 33 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| 5 | 11 | 6 | 35 | .143 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 12.5 | |
| 5 | 9 | 2 | 18 | .389 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 8 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 69 | 21 | 170 | .282 | 65 | 4 | 8 | 70 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 14 | 119 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 24 | 16 | 60 | .133 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 27 | |
| 5 | 17 | 6 | 44 | .250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 17.5 | |
| 5 | 14 | 2 | 30 | .400 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.5 | 16.5 | |
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 21 | .143 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |
| 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | .182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 | .417 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -.400 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 5.5 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 77 | 34 | 196 | .219 | 71 | 3 | 11 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 111 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
25-21
Set 2
23-25
Set 3
26-24
Set 4
30-32
Set 5
15-9
Bars above the line = Wake Forest leads, below = North Carolina leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
North Carolina
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65%11/17 | 29%4/14 |
| 2 | 73%11/15 | 39%7/18 |
| 3 | 71%10/14 | 52%12/23 |
| 4 | 56%9/16 | 9%1/11 |
| 5 | 50%8/16 | 56%10/18 |
| 6 | 88%7/8 | 30%3/10 |
| All | 65%56/86 | 39%37/94 |
Wake Forest
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 79%11/14 | 20%2/10 |
| 2 | 52%11/21 | 31%5/16 |
| 3 | 55%11/20 | 35%6/17 |
| 4 | 69%9/13 | 17%2/12 |
| 5 | 47%8/17 | 56%10/18 |
| 6 | 78%7/9 | 38%5/13 |
| All | 61%57/94 | 35%30/86 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
230 rallies
| # | UNC-WAKE | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.7 |
| 2 | 1-1 | UNC | WAKE | Serve err | North Carolina | +0.7 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | WAKE | UNC | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Chelsea Thorpe, Lauren Schutter | +0.7 |
| 4 | 2-2 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Andrea Roman | +0.8 |
| 5 | 2-3 | WAKE | WAKE | Blocked | Laynie Smith | blk Lyla Stewart, Sanaa Williams | +1.2 |
| 6 | 3-3 | WAKE | UNC | Attack err | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +0.8 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Becca Bellows | +0.9 |
| 8 | 4-4 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Bridget Malone | set Sienna Cozza | +0.8 |
| 9 | 4-5 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +1.0 |
| 10 | 5-5 | WAKE | UNC | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +0.9 | |
| 11 | 6-5 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Sadie Poeck | +1.2 | |
| 12 | 6-6 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +0.9 |
| 13 | 7-6 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Julia Bohlinger | +0.8 |
| 14 | 8-6 | UNC | UNC | Blocked | Amina Ndiaye | blk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe | +1.1 |
| 15 | 8-7 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +0.8 |
| 16 | 9-7 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.7 |
| 17 | 9-8 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Becca Bellows | +0.8 |
| 18 | 10-8 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.8 |
| 19 | 10-9 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +0.8 |
| 20 | 11-9 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Julia Bohlinger | +0.8 |
| 21 | 11-10 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +0.8 |
| 22 | 12-10 | WAKE | UNC×4 | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +0.8 |
| 23 | 13-10 | UNC | UNC×4 | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Sienna Cozza | +1.0 |
| 24 | 14-10 | UNC | UNC×4 | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +0.8 | |
| 25 | 15-10 | UNC | UNC×4 | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +0.6 | |
| 26 | 15-11 | UNC | WAKE×4 | Serve err | North Carolina | +0.3 | |
| 27 | 15-12 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Attack err | Jackie Taylor | +0.7 | |
| 28 | 15-13 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Blocked | Laynie Smith | blk Sanaa Williams, Amina Ndiaye | +1.0 |
| 29 | 15-14 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Ace | Wake Forest | aced Safi Hampton | +1.4 |
| 30 | 16-14 | WAKE | UNC | Attack err | Amina Ndiaye | +1.0 | |
| 31 | 17-14 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Sadie Poeck | +1.2 | |
| 32 | 17-15 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +0.8 |
| 33 | 18-15 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.9 |
| 34 | 18-16 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Emma Keeping | +0.8 |
| 35 | 18-17 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Becca Bellows | +1.6 |
| 36 | 19-17 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.2 |
| 37 | 19-18 | UNC | WAKE | Serve err | North Carolina | +1.2 | |
| 38 | 20-18 | WAKE | UNC×4 | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Lauren Schutter, Chelsea Thorpe | +1.3 |
| 39 | 21-18 | UNC | UNC×4 | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +1.5 | |
| 40 | 22-18 | UNC | UNC×4 | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.9 |
| 41 | 23-18 | UNC | UNC×4 | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.4 |
| 42 | 23-19 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +0.1 |
| 43 | 23-20 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Safi Hampton | +0.4 | |
| 44 | 24-20 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +0.5 | |
| 45 | 24-21 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +0.2 |
| 46 | 25-21 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +0.3 | |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.7 |
| 2 | 1-1 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +0.5 |
| 3 | 1-2 | WAKE | WAKE | Ace | Wake Forest | +0.8 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Julia Bohlinger | +0.5 |
| 5 | 2-3 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Andrea Roman | +0.6 |
| 6 | 2-4 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.9 |
| 7 | 3-4 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.6 |
| 8 | 3-5 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Becca Bellows | set Lyla Stewart | +0.7 |
| 9 | 4-5 | WAKE | UNC | Bad set | Andrea Roman | +0.6 | |
| 10 | 4-6 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +0.7 |
| 11 | 4-7 | WAKE | WAKE | Ace | Wake Forest | +1.1 | |
| 12 | 5-7 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +0.7 |
| 13 | 6-7 | UNC | UNC | Ace | North Carolina | aced Amina Ndiaye | +1.0 |
| 14 | 6-8 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sadie Poeck | set Emma Keeping | +0.8 |
| 15 | 6-9 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +1.2 |
| 16 | 7-9 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +0.7 |
| 17 | 7-10 | UNC | WAKE | Blocked | Chelsea Thorpe | blk Catherine Burke, Amina Ndiaye | +0.9 |
| 18 | 8-10 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.7 |
| 19 | 9-10 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Amina Ndiaye | +1.1 | |
| 20 | 9-11 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Catherine Burke | set Becca Bellows | +0.9 |
| 21 | 9-12 | WAKE | WAKE | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.3 | |
| 22 | 10-12 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.8 |
| 23 | 11-12 | UNC | UNC | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Chelsea Thorpe | +1.2 |
| 24 | 11-13 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +1.0 |
| 25 | 11-14 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +1.4 |
| 26 | 12-14 | WAKE | UNC×3 | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.8 |
| 27 | 13-14 | UNC | UNC×3 | Attack err | Sanaa Williams | +1.3 | |
| 28 | 14-14 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Julia Bohlinger | +1.3 |
| 29 | 14-15 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +1.0 |
| 30 | 15-15 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Lauren Schutter | set Carly Markham | +0.9 |
| 31 | 16-15 | UNC | UNC | Blocked | Sadie Poeck | blk Hailey Pearce, Lauren Schutter | +1.2 |
| 32 | 16-16 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +0.9 |
| 33 | 17-16 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Sienna Cozza | +0.9 |
| 34 | 17-17 | UNC | WAKE | Serve err | North Carolina | +1.0 | |
| 35 | 17-18 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Jackie Taylor | +1.7 | |
| 36 | 18-18 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.1 | |
| 37 | 18-19 | UNC | WAKE | Serve err | North Carolina | +1.3 | |
| 38 | 18-20 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Hailey Pearce | +2.1 | |
| 39 | 19-20 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.2 |
| 40 | 19-21 | UNC | WAKE×3 | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +1.7 |
| 41 | 19-22 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +2.2 | |
| 42 | 19-23 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Andrea Roman | +1.6 |
| 43 | 20-23 | WAKE | UNC×3 | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.5 |
| 44 | 21-23 | UNC | UNC×3 | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +1.3 | |
| 45 | 22-23 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.0 |
| 46 | 22-24 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +2.5 |
| 47 | 23-24 | WAKE | UNC | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Lauren Schutter, Chelsea Thorpe | +1.3 |
| 48 | 23-25 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +3.6 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +2.2 |
| 2 | 1-1 | WAKE | UNC | Attack err | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +1.4 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | UNC | WAKE×3 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +1.6 |
| 4 | 1-3 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | +2.6 | |
| 5 | 1-4 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Becca Bellows | +2.8 |
| 6 | 2-4 | WAKE | UNC×3 | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Sienna Cozza | +1.7 |
| 7 | 3-4 | UNC | UNC×3 | Attack err | Sanaa Williams | +2.5 | |
| 8 | 4-4 | UNC | UNC×3 | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Julia Bohlinger | +2.3 |
| 9 | 4-5 | UNC | WAKE | Blocked | Hailey Pearce | blk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams | +1.8 |
| 10 | 5-5 | WAKE | UNC | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe | +1.6 |
| 11 | 5-6 | WAKE | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +1.9 | |||
| 12 | 6-6 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.7 |
| 13 | 6-7 | UNC | WAKE | Attack err | Safi Hampton | +1.9 | |
| 14 | 7-7 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.7 |
| 15 | 7-8 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Catherine Burke | set Emma Keeping | +2.0 |
| 16 | 8-8 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.8 | |
| 17 | 8-9 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Andrea Roman | +2.1 |
| 18 | 9-9 | WAKE | UNC×4 | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Emily Bobbitt | +1.9 |
| 19 | 10-9 | UNC | UNC×4 | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Emily Bobbitt | +2.6 |
| 20 | 11-9 | UNC | UNC×4 | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Emily Bobbitt | +2.2 |
| 21 | 12-9 | UNC | UNC×4 | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Emily Bobbitt | +1.9 |
| 22 | 12-10 | UNC | WAKE | Serve err | North Carolina | +1.3 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Emily Bobbitt | +1.3 |
| 24 | 14-10 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Julia Bohlinger | +1.5 |
| 25 | 14-11 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +0.9 |
| 26 | 14-12 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +1.8 |
| 27 | 15-12 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.4 |
| 28 | 15-13 | UNC | WAKE×3 | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Andrea Roman | +1.4 |
| 29 | 15-14 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +2.6 |
| 30 | 15-15 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Emma Keeping | +3.4 |
| 31 | 16-15 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.3 |
| 32 | 16-16 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Emma Keeping | +2.6 |
| 33 | 16-17 | WAKE | WAKE | Blocked | Chelsea Thorpe | blk Amina Ndiaye | +4.4 |
| 34 | 17-17 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.8 |
| 35 | 17-18 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Emma Keeping | +3.4 |
| 36 | 17-19 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +5.4 |
| 37 | 18-19 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Emily Bobbitt | +3.1 |
| 38 | 19-19 | UNC | UNC | Ace | North Carolina | aced Amina Ndiaye | +4.9 |
| 39 | 19-20 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Becca Bellows | +4.1 |
| 40 | 20-20 | UNC | NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected. | +3.6 | |||
| 41 | 21-20 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith | +5.4 |
| 42 | 22-20 | UNC | UNC×3 | Attack err | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +4.5 | |
| 43 | 22-21 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Mattea Saunders | +2.6 |
| 44 | 22-22 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +6.0 |
| 45 | 23-22 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Emily Bobbitt | +4.9 |
| 46 | 24-22 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Hailey Pearce | +5.8 | |
| 47 | 24-23 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Andrea Roman | +2.2 |
| 48 | 24-24 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +8.6 |
| 49 | 25-24 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +6.2 | |
| 50 | 26-24 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +7.3 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Becca Bellows | +1.2 |
| 2 | 0-2 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +1.8 |
| 3 | 1-2 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Julia Bohlinger | +1.1 |
| 4 | 1-3 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +1.3 |
| 5 | 2-3 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Emily Bobbitt | +1.2 |
| 6 | 2-4 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Becca Bellows | +1.4 |
| 7 | 3-4 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Emily Bobbitt | +1.2 |
| 8 | 3-5 | UNC | WAKE | Attack err | Hailey Pearce | +1.4 | |
| 9 | 4-5 | WAKE | UNC×3 | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.2 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | UNC | UNC×3 | Ace | North Carolina | aced Amina Ndiaye | +1.7 |
| 11 | 6-5 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Amina Ndiaye | blk Jackie Taylor, Chelsea Thorpe | +1.6 |
| 12 | 6-6 | UNC | WAKE | Serve err | North Carolina | +1.2 | |
| 13 | 7-6 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.1 |
| 14 | 7-7 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Kelis Hawkins | set Emma Keeping | +1.2 |
| 15 | 8-7 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.1 |
| 16 | 9-7 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Amina Ndiaye | +1.5 | |
| 17 | 9-8 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +1.1 |
| 18 | 10-8 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Emily Bobbitt | +1.0 |
| 19 | 11-8 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Kelis Hawkins | +1.3 | |
| 20 | 11-9 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +0.9 |
| 21 | 11-10 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +1.6 |
| 22 | 12-10 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.1 | |
| 23 | 12-11 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Ryleigh Whitekettle | set Becca Bellows | +1.2 |
| 24 | 12-12 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Amina Ndiaye | +2.1 |
| 25 | 13-12 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +1.4 | |
| 26 | 13-13 | UNC | WAKE | Attack err | Hailey Pearce | +1.6 | |
| 27 | 14-13 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +1.5 |
| 28 | 15-13 | UNC | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.0 |
| 29 | 15-14 | UNC | WAKE×4 | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +1.4 |
| 30 | 15-15 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Attack err | Chelsea Thorpe | +2.5 | |
| 31 | 15-16 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Blocked | Safi Hampton | blk Laiya Ebo, Kelis Hawkins | +3.0 |
| 32 | 15-17 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Sanaa Williams | +3.4 |
| 33 | 16-17 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.0 |
| 34 | 17-17 | UNC | UNC | Blocked | Laiya Ebo | blk Safi Hampton, Mackenzie Boyer | +3.1 |
| 35 | 17-18 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Kelis Hawkins | set Emma Keeping | +2.5 |
| 36 | 18-18 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.2 |
| 37 | 18-19 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Amina Ndiaye | set Lyla Stewart | +2.7 |
| 38 | 19-19 | WAKE | UNC×3 | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Emily Bobbitt | +2.4 |
| 39 | 20-19 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Mackenzie Boyer, Laynie Smith | +3.5 |
| 40 | 21-19 | UNC | UNC×3 | Blocked | Ryleigh Whitekettle | blk Mackenzie Boyer, Hailey Pearce | +3.0 |
| 41 | 21-20 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Kelis Hawkins | set Becca Bellows | +1.8 |
| 42 | 22-20 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Emily Bobbitt | +2.2 |
| 43 | 23-20 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +2.2 | |
| 44 | 23-21 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Becca Bellows | +0.9 |
| 45 | 24-21 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Emily Bobbitt | +1.5 |
| 46 | 24-22 | UNC | WAKE×3 | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Andrea Roman | +0.6 |
| 47 | 24-23 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Attack err | Hailey Pearce | +2.3 | |
| 48 | 24-24 | WAKE | WAKE×3 | Attack err | Jackie Taylor | +6.3 | |
| 49 | 25-24 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +4.5 |
| 50 | 25-25 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +4.5 |
| 51 | 26-25 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Emma Keeping | +4.5 |
| 52 | 26-26 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Emma Keeping | +4.5 |
| 53 | 27-26 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +4.5 |
| 54 | 27-27 | UNC | WAKE | Serve err | North Carolina | +4.5 | |
| 55 | 28-27 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Safi Hampton | set Zoe Behrendt | +4.5 |
| 56 | 28-28 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Kelis Hawkins | set Emma Keeping | +4.5 |
| 57 | 28-29 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Mackenzie Boyer | +8.0 | |
| 58 | 29-29 | WAKE | UNC | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +5.8 | |
| 59 | 29-30 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Emma Keeping | +5.8 |
| 60 | 30-30 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +5.8 | |
| 61 | 30-31 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +5.8 |
| 62 | 30-32 | WAKE | WAKE | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +11.4 |
| Set 5 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | UNC | WAKE | Blocked | Lauren Schutter | blk Kelis Hawkins | +5.9 |
| 2 | 1-1 | WAKE | UNC | Serve err | Wake Forest | +5.3 | |
| 3 | 2-1 | UNC | UNC | Attack err | Ryleigh Whitekettle | +7.3 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +5.4 |
| 5 | 3-2 | WAKE | UNC×7 | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Emily Bobbitt | +5.1 |
| 6 | 4-2 | UNC | UNC×7 | Kill | Laynie Smith | set Julia Bohlinger | +6.7 |
| 7 | 5-2 | UNC | UNC×7 | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Safi Hampton | +5.5 |
| 8 | 6-2 | UNC | UNC×7 | Blocked | Ryleigh Whitekettle | blk Jackie Taylor, Hailey Pearce | +4.2 |
| 9 | 7-2 | UNC | UNC×7 | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Emily Bobbitt | +2.9 |
| 10 | 8-2 | UNC | UNC×7 | Attack err | Lyla Stewart | +1.8 | |
| 11 | 9-2 | UNC | UNC×7 | Kill | Hailey Pearce | set Julia Bohlinger | +1.0 |
| 12 | 9-3 | UNC | WAKE | Kill | Lyla Stewart | set Becca Bellows | +0.4 |
| 13 | 9-4 | WAKE | WAKE | Attack err | Hailey Pearce | +1.1 | |
| 14 | 10-4 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Jackie Taylor | set Emily Bobbitt | +1.1 |
| 15 | 10-5 | UNC | WAKE×4 | Kill | Sanaa Williams | set Emma Keeping | +0.7 |
| 16 | 10-6 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Emma Keeping | +1.8 |
| 17 | 10-7 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Kill | Laiya Ebo | set Emma Keeping | +3.2 |
| 18 | 10-8 | WAKE | WAKE×4 | Blocked | Jackie Taylor | blk Laiya Ebo, Sanaa Williams | +5.4 |
| 19 | 11-8 | WAKE | UNC×4 | Blocked | Lyla Stewart | blk Chelsea Thorpe, Jackie Taylor | +4.8 |
| 20 | 12-8 | UNC | UNC×4 | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +4.5 |
| 21 | 13-8 | UNC | UNC×4 | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +2.1 |
| 22 | 14-8 | UNC | UNC×4 | Ace | North Carolina | aced Andrea Roman | +0.7 |
| 23 | 14-9 | UNC | WAKE | Serve err | North Carolina | +0.1 | |
| 24 | 15-9 | WAKE | UNC | Kill | Chelsea Thorpe | set Zoe Behrendt | +0.2 |
Score shown after each rally, North Carolina first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).