Final · 4 setsSun, Oct 18, 2026Watch on ACCNX

California def. Wake Forest 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: California 83.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 18, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

California beat visiting Wake Forest 3-1 (25-21, 22-25, 25-22, 25-13) on Sun, Oct 18, 2026. California's Abby Zimmerman led with 17 kills, and Sophia Johnson added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 18

Set1234Sets
WAKE212522131
CAL252225253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

No turning point: California built it on serve.

Win probability never moved more than 4.2 points on one rally; Wake Forest topped out at 25% in Set 1. RallyIQ gave California 83% before first serve.

Wake ForestCalifornia
  • Break %+10.0 pts
    39.049.0

    On serve: 47/96 against 32/82 (Wake Forest sideout 51.0%).

  • Longest run+2
    46

    California scored 6 straight in the fourth set to stretch a 17–11 lead to 23–11. That set ended 25–13.

California above 50Wake Forest belowMax swing 4.2%

Wake ForestCalifornia

Hitting
Wake Forest .145·California .195
Aces
Wake Forest 1·California 10
Serve err
Wake Forest 7·California 9
Blocks
Wake Forest 9·California 71 BS · 16 BA vs 1 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Wake Forest 54·California 63

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

California above 50 · Wake Forest below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.2% WAKErally 178 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Wake Forest — set 2, WAKE 23-21 CAL. Attack error by Sawyer Thomsen. CAL win probability 86% → 82%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

WAKE 19.4%80.6% CAL

Wake Forest wins

3-0
3.1%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
9.9%

California wins

3-0
32.1%
3-1
30.4%
3-2
18.1%
WAKE break %
36.3% vs this opp
CAL break %
42.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sawyer ThomsenAttack error+4.2%

    Attack error by Sawyer Thomsen

    Set 2 · WAKE 23-21 CAL · WAKE 14% → 18%

  2. 02
    Grace AgolliAttack error+3.9%

    Attack error by Grace Agolli

    Set 2 · WAKE 22-21 CAL · WAKE 10% → 14%

  3. 03
    Grace AgolliAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Grace Agolli

    Set 1 · WAKE 18-17 CAL · WAKE 18% → 22%

  4. 04
    Anna FloresKill+3.3%

    Kill by Anna Flores (set by Ashley Li)

    Set 1 · WAKE 18-19 CAL · CAL 81% → 84%

  5. 05

    Abby Zimmerman stuffed by Ryleigh Whitekettle & Sanaa Williams

    Set 2 · WAKE 24-22 CAL · WAKE 17% → 20%

  6. 06
    Anna FloresKill+3.0%

    Kill by Anna Flores (set by Lyla Stewart)

    Set 1 · WAKE 18-20 CAL · CAL 84% → 87%

  7. 07
    Anna FloresBad set+2.9%

    Bad set by Anna Flores

    Set 2 · WAKE 25-22 CAL · WAKE 20% → 23%

  8. 08

    Kill by Ryleigh Whitekettle (set by Lyla Stewart)

    Set 1 · WAKE 15-14 CAL · WAKE 18% → 21%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4151131.1290006004217
413845.11130370031.514.5
47122.273100610007
43213.077000000425
4014-.25023111000001
2012-.500001001222
45118.22210041010.55.5
4103.3331201300001
4002.000100420000
4001.0003011450000
2204.500000000213
2000–000000000
1000–000010000
Team totals4625145.14544175410116981
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417340.35045410104224
48218.33300020132.510.5
48321.23810230031.59.5
47725.000111500008
46213.3083910140010.57.5
4000–000600000
47732.00002020010.59.5
14Elise LauL/DS
4000–012000001
4000–200200000
4000–4001800000
1000–000000000
1000–000100000
Team totals5324149.19551109631112797

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 WAKE · CAL 6

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 WAKECAL 4

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 4 WAKECAL 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 4 WAKECAL 3

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 2 WAKECAL 6

Bars above the line = California leads, below = Wake Forest leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Wake Forest

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%8/15
36%4/11
2
58%7/12
50%8/16
3
50%6/12
50%6/12
4
38%6/16
25%2/8
5
56%5/9
25%2/8
6
71%5/7
0%0/5
All
52%37/71
37%22/60

California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
40%4/10
2
44%7/16
53%8/15
3
67%6/9
30%3/10
4
67%6/9
57%8/14
5
86%6/7
63%10/16
6
71%5/7
17%1/6
All
63%38/60
48%34/71

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

178 rallies

#WAKE-CALSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CALWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+1.2
22-0WAKEWAKEAttack errSawyer Thomsen+1.9
32-1WAKECALBlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Abby Zimmerman, Sawyer Thomsen+1.1
43-1CALWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Andrea Roman+1.3
54-1WAKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+2.1
65-1WAKEWAKE×3KillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+2.1
75-2WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.2
86-2CALWAKEServe errSawyer Thomsen+1.5
96-3WAKECAL×4KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.2
106-4CALCAL×4AceAbby Zimmermanaced Laiya Ebo+2.0
116-5CALCAL×4AceAbby Zimmermanaced Andrea Roman+2.0
126-6CALCAL×4AceAbby Zimmermanaced Andrea Roman+2.0
137-6CALWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+1.4
147-7WAKECALAttack errLyla Stewart+1.3
157-8CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.9
168-8CALWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+1.3
178-9WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.2
189-9CALWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+1.4
1910-9WAKEWAKE×3AceBecca Bellowsaced Abby Zimmerman+2.3
2011-9WAKEWAKE×3Attack errAshley Li+2.5
2111-10WAKECALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.5
2212-10CALWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+1.8
2313-10WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewart+2.7
2413-11WAKECAL×4KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.5
2513-12CALCAL×4Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+2.5
2613-13CALCAL×4Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+2.5
2713-14CALCAL×4AceAshley Liaced Andrea Roman+2.4
2814-14CALWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.7
2915-14WAKEWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Lyla Stewart+2.9
3015-15WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.8
3115-16CALCALBlockedLyla Stewartblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+2.7
3216-16CALWAKEServe errSawyer Thomsen+1.8
3316-17WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.8
3417-17CALWAKEServe errAbby Zimmerman+1.9
3518-17WAKEWAKEAttack errGrace Agolli+3.5
3618-18WAKECAL×3KillAnna Flores+2.1
3718-19CALCAL×3KillAnna Floresset Ashley Li+3.3
3818-20CALCAL×3KillAnna Floresset Lyla Stewart+3.0
3919-20CALWAKEAttack errAbby Zimmerman+1.7
4019-21WAKECALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.0
4120-21CALWAKEAttack errAshley Li+1.8
4220-22WAKECAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.2
4320-23CALCAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.4
4420-24CALCAL×3Attack errAmina Ndiaye+1.1
4521-24CALWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.2
4621-25WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.5
Set 2
10-1WAKECALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.7
20-2CALCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.0
31-2CALWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Becca Bellows+0.7
42-2WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Dhru Lalaji+1.2
52-3WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.8
63-3CALWAKEBlockedGrace Agolliblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+0.8
74-3WAKEWAKEBlockedGrace Agolliblk Catherine Burke, Ryleigh Whitekettle+1.4
84-4WAKECALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.9
95-4CALWAKEServe errAbby Zimmerman+1.0
106-4WAKEWAKEBlockedCari Bohmblk Catherine Burke+1.6
116-5WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.9
127-5CALWAKEAttack errAnna Flores+1.1
137-6WAKECALServe errLyla Stewart+1.0
148-6CALWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+1.1
158-7WAKECAL×3KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.0
168-8CALCAL×3KillAshley Liset Sophia Johnson+1.5
178-9CALCAL×3AceAnna Floresaced Amina Ndiaye+1.5
189-9CALWAKE×3KillEmma Keepingset Lyla Stewart+1.0
1910-9WAKEWAKE×3KillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.7
2011-9WAKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.9
2111-10WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.1
2212-10CALWAKE×4KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.3
2313-10WAKEWAKE×4Attack errSawyer Thomsen+2.0
2414-10WAKEWAKE×4KillLyla Stewartset Andrea Roman+1.9
2515-10WAKEWAKE×4Attack errGrace Agolli+1.7
2615-11WAKECALAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+0.8
2715-12CALCALKillGrace Agolliset Sawyer Thomsen+1.6
2816-12CALWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.4
2916-13WAKECAL×3KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.0
3016-14CALCAL×3Attack errLyla Stewart+1.9
3116-15CALCAL×3KillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+2.1
3217-15CALWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.7
3317-16WAKECAL×3Serve errEmma Keeping+1.4
3417-17CALCAL×3BlockedLyla Stewartblk Cari Bohm, Anna Flores+2.3
3517-18CALCAL×3Attack errCatherine Burke+2.3
3618-18CALWAKEBlockedAshley Liblk Catherine Burke, Lyla Stewart+1.5
3718-19WAKECALKillAnna Floresset Abby Zimmerman+1.6
3819-19CALWAKEServe errElise Lau+1.7
3919-20WAKECALServe errCatherine Burke+1.7
4020-20CALWAKEBlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Laiya Ebo, Sanaa Williams+1.8
4120-21WAKECALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.9
4221-21CALWAKE×3KillAmina Ndiayeset Becca Bellows+2.0
4322-21WAKEWAKE×3Attack errGrace Agolli+3.9
4423-21WAKEWAKE×3Attack errSawyer Thomsen+4.2
4523-22WAKECALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.8
4624-22CALWAKEBlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Sanaa Williams+3.3
4725-22WAKEWAKEBad setAnna Flores+2.9
Set 3
10-1CALCAL×3KillAshley Liset Sophia Johnson+2.5
20-2CALCAL×3Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+2.3
30-3CALCAL×3Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+2.0
41-3WAKE
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.3
52-3WAKEWAKEBlockedAshley Liblk Kelis Hawkins, Lyla Stewart+2.3
62-4WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Sophia Johnson+1.5
72-5CALCALKillGrace Agolli+2.1
83-5CALWAKEServe errAshley Li+1.3
93-6WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.3
104-6CALWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.3
114-7WAKECAL×3KillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.4
124-8CALCAL×3AceAbby Zimmermanaced Dhru Lalaji+1.8
134-9CALCAL×3Attack errLyla Stewart+1.4
145-9CALWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Laiya Ebo+0.8
156-9WAKEWAKEKillLaiya Eboset Amina Ndiaye+1.7
166-10WAKECAL×3Attack errSanaa Williams+1.2
176-11CALCAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.5
186-12CALCAL×3KillAshley Liset Sophia Johnson+1.1
197-12CALWAKEKillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+0.6
207-13WAKECALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.7
217-14CALCALAceElise Lauaced Andrea Roman+0.7
228-14CALWAKE×3KillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+0.3
239-14WAKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.8
2410-14WAKEWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Andrea Roman+1.2
2510-15WAKECALBad setBecca Bellows+1.0
2610-16CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.0
2711-16CALWAKE×3KillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.5
2812-16WAKEWAKE×3KillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.1
2913-16WAKEWAKE×3KillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.7
3013-17WAKECALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.4
3114-17CALWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+1.2
3214-18WAKECALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.4
3314-19CALCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.5
3415-19CALWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.6
3515-20WAKECALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.9
3615-21CALCALKillAnna Floresset Abby Zimmerman+0.8
3716-21CALWAKE×4Serve errAbby Zimmerman+0.3
3817-21WAKEWAKE×4KillLaiya Eboset Emma Keeping+0.7
3918-21WAKEWAKE×4Attack errGrace Agolli+1.4
4019-21WAKEWAKE×4KillSanaa Williamsset Emma Keeping+2.5
4119-22WAKECALServe errLyla Stewart+2.3
4219-23CALCALKillAnna Floresset Abby Zimmerman+2.1
4320-23CALWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Emma Keeping+0.6
4420-24WAKECALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.1
4521-24CALWAKEServe errElise Lau+0.3
4622-24WAKEWAKEAttack errAshley Li+1.3
4722-25WAKECALServe errBecca Bellows+2.0
Set 4
10-1WAKECAL×5KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.2
20-2CALCAL×5Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+1.8
30-3CALCAL×5Attack errRyleigh Whitekettle+1.6
40-4CALCAL×5BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Grace Agolli, Sawyer Thomsen+1.3
50-5CALCAL×5BlockedRyleigh Whitekettleblk Abby Zimmerman, Sawyer Thomsen+1.1
61-5CALWAKEBlockedGrace Agolliblk Ryleigh Whitekettle, Kelis Hawkins+0.6
71-6WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.7
81-7CALCALBlockedLyla Stewartblk Abby Zimmerman, Cari Bohm+0.8
92-7CALWAKEKillRyleigh Whitekettleset Becca Bellows+0.5
103-7WAKEWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+1.0
113-8WAKECALServe errAndrea Roman+0.7
124-8CALWAKEAttack errAnna Flores+0.6
135-8WAKEWAKEBlockedCari Bohmblk Lyla Stewart, Sanaa Williams+1.3
145-9WAKECALAttack errLyla Stewart+0.9
156-9CALWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping+0.9
166-10WAKECALServe errLyla Stewart+0.9
177-10CALWAKEKillAmina Ndiayeset Lyla Stewart+0.9
187-11WAKECALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.0
198-11CALWAKEKillKelis Hawkinsset Emma Keeping+0.9
208-12WAKECALAttack errRyleigh Whitekettle+1.0
219-12CALWAKEKillKelis Hawkinsset Becca Bellows+0.9
229-13WAKECALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.0
2310-13CALWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Becca Bellows+0.9
2410-14WAKECAL×4KillGrace Agolliset Siena MacCudden+1.0
2510-15CALCAL×4Attack errBecca Bellows+1.2
2610-16CALCAL×4Attack errLyla Stewart+0.8
2710-17CALCAL×4AceAbby Zimmermanaced Andrea Roman+0.5
2811-17CALWAKEServe errAbby Zimmerman+0.2
2911-18WAKECAL×6KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.3
3011-19CALCAL×6Bad setLyla Stewart+0.2
3111-20CALCAL×6AceGrace Agolliaced Dhru Lalaji+0.1
3211-21CALCAL×6BlockedSanaa Williamsblk Cari Bohm·
3311-22CALCAL×6AceGrace Agolliaced Sadie Poeck·
3411-23CALCAL×6KillCari Bohmset Abby Zimmerman·
3512-23CALWAKEKillLyla Stewartset Emma Keeping·
3613-23WAKEWAKEAttack errAshley Li·
3713-24WAKECALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores·
3813-25CALCALAttack errLaiya Ebo·

Score shown after each rally, Wake Forest first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).