Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Bellarmine def. North Florida 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: North Florida 50.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 1:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Bellarmine beat visiting North Florida 3-1 (24-26, 25-23, 25-21, 25-17) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Bellarmine's Mya White led with 14 kills.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
NO FLA262321171
BELLAR242525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Mary Herman served 7 aces, and Bellarmine needed every one.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Bellarmine's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. North Florida went in at 51% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · North Florida 22–24 Bellarmine

    North Florida closed it, 4 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 26–24 and lead 1–0. The match swung to North Florida.

    Bellarmine 64% → 31%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 3 · North Florida 16–15 Bellarmine

    Down 15–16, Bellarmine scored 6 straight to lead 21–16. The match swung to Bellarmine.

    Bellarmine 45% → 73%

Bellarmine above 50North Florida belowMax swing 10.0%

North FloridaBellarmine

Sideout %
North Florida 57.1·Bellarmine 64.8
Break %
North Florida 35.2·Bellarmine 42.9
Hitting
North Florida .192·Bellarmine .265
Longest run
North Florida 4·Bellarmine 6

Mady Yaden
2 of her kills came in the stretches above. 10 K, .269, 10.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Bellarmine above 50 · North Florida below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.0% NO FLArally 186 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.0% to North Florida — set 1, NO FLA 24-24 BELLAR. Natalie Bland stuffed by Yarimar Francis Garay & Leah McDonald. BELLAR win probability 61% → 51%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NO FLA 50.3%49.7% BELLAR

North Florida wins

3-0
12.6%
3-1
18.9%
3-2
18.8%

Bellarmine wins

3-0
12.4%
3-1
18.6%
3-2
18.7%
NO FLA break %
41.9% vs this opp
BELLAR break %
41.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Natalie Bland stuffed by Yarimar Francis Garay & Leah McDonald

    Set 1 · NO FLA 24-24 BELLAR · NO FLA 39% → 49%

  2. 02
    Dakota SpurrierKill+10.0%

    Kill by Dakota Spurrier (set by Sofia Dawson)

    Set 1 · NO FLA 25-24 BELLAR · NO FLA 49% → 59%

  3. 03

    Natalie Bland stuffed by Leah McDonald & Yarimar Francis Garay

    Set 1 · NO FLA 26-24 BELLAR · NO FLA 59% → 69%

  4. 04
    Yarimar Francis GarayAttack error+7.5%

    Attack error by Yarimar Francis Garay

    Set 2 · NO FLA 23-25 BELLAR · BELLAR 42% → 50%

  5. 05
    Mary HermanKill+5.7%

    Kill by Mary Herman (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 1 · NO FLA 22-24 BELLAR · BELLAR 59% → 64%

  6. 06
    Mady YadenKill+5.6%

    Kill by Mady Yaden (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 3 · NO FLA 16-17 BELLAR · BELLAR 49% → 55%

  7. 07
    Abby JuliusKill+5.6%

    Kill by Abby Julius (set by Maddie Carnes)

    Set 3 · NO FLA 16-18 BELLAR · BELLAR 55% → 61%

  8. 08

    Mady Yaden stuffed by Haleina Bowers & Katelyn Bowman

    Set 3 · NO FLA 16-15 BELLAR · NO FLA 49% → 55%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414442.23800214316418
411217.52900010174.515.5
411942.0484129110113
44419.00004232031.59.5
47215.33300021031.58.5
4108.1254200700001
4000–1201400002
4000–014100001
3000–000610000
2103.33300000010.51.5
1000–000000000
Team totals4921146.1924781057113201387
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411227.3330711004220
414630.2670002012216
49633.09112210402112
410326.26900031010.510.5
49212.58300320031.510.5
4207.28643011001224
4001.0001111110001
4000–112600001
4000–6001110000
Team totals5519136.265521110568214999

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

North Florida vs Bellarmine

Season series · Bellarmine leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 NO FLA · BELLAR 6

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 4 NO FLABELLAR 5

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 NO FLABELLAR 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 NO FLABELLAR 6

Set 4

17-25

Longest run 3 NO FLABELLAR 4

Bars above the line = Bellarmine leads, below = North Florida leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Florida

No clean sets to split.

Bellarmine

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

186 rallies

#NO FLA-BELLARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0BELLARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.9
21-1NO FLABELLARBlockedHaleina Bowersblk Mya White+1.8
32-1BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.9
43-1NO FLANO FLABlockedMya Whiteblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Kaili Doctor+2.5
53-2NO FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.8
64-2BELLARNO FLAAttack errNatalie Blandset Sofia Dawson+1.9
74-3NO FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.9
85-3BELLARNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Dakota Spurrier+2.0
96-3NO FLANO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+2.5
106-4NO FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+1.8
116-5BELLARBELLARAttack errDakota Spurrier+2.6
127-5BELLARNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+2.1
137-6NO FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.0
148-6BELLARNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+2.1
159-6NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Floridaaced Natalie Bland+2.7
169-7NO FLABELLARKillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+1.9
179-8BELLARBELLARAttack errDakota Spurrier+2.8
1810-8BELLARNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+2.2
1910-9NO FLABELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+2.1
2010-10BELLARBELLARKillNatalie Blandset Payton Parsons+3.1
2111-10BELLARNO FLAKillSofia Dawsonset Dakota Spurrier+2.4
2211-11NO FLABELLARKillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+2.4
2312-11BELLARNO FLAServe errBellarmine+2.5
2412-12NO FLABELLAR×5BlockedLeah McDonaldblk Mary Herman, Natalie Bland+2.5
2512-13BELLARBELLAR×5KillNatalie Blandset Abbie Lyttle+3.5
2612-14BELLAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.5
2712-15BELLARBELLAR×5AceBellarmine+3.2
2812-16BELLARBELLAR×5KillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.8
2913-16BELLARNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+1.7
3013-17NO FLABELLARAttack errDakota Spurrierset Yarimar Francis Garay+2.2
3114-17BELLARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.7
3214-18NO FLABELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+2.2
3314-19BELLARBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Natalie Bland+2.3
3414-20BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errLeah McDonald+1.5
3515-20BELLARNO FLA×3KillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+0.7
3616-20NO FLANO FLA×3AceNorth Floridaaced Natalie Bland+1.4
3717-20NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errNatalie Bland+2.1
3817-21NO FLABELLARBlockedDakota Spurrierblk Maddie Carnes+2.3
3918-21BELLARNO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.5
4019-21NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedMady Yadenblk Kaili Doctor, Haleina Bowers+3.0
4120-21NO FLANO FLA×3AceNorth Floridaaced Mady Yaden+4.4
4220-22NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+4.3
4321-22BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.4
4421-23NO FLABELLARServe errNorth Florida+4.8
4522-23BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.5
4622-24NO FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+5.7
4723-24BELLARNO FLA×4KillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+3.2
4824-24NO FLANO FLA×4BlockedNatalie Blandblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Leah McDonald+10.0
4925-24NO FLANO FLA×4KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+10.0
5026-24NO FLANO FLA×4BlockedNatalie Blandblk Leah McDonald, Yarimar Francis Garay+10.0
Set 2
10-1NO FLABELLARKillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+1.8
21-1BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.8
32-1NO FLANO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garay+2.5
42-2NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+1.9
53-2BELLARNO FLA×3Serve errBellarmine+1.9
64-2NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedMary Hermanblk Yarimar Francis Garay+2.6
75-2NO FLANO FLA×3KillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+2.5
85-3BELLAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
95-4BELLARBELLARKillMaddie Carnes+2.5
106-4BELLARNO FLAServe errBellarmine+2.0
116-5NO FLABELLAR×3Serve errNorth Florida+1.9
126-6BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmineaced Julianna Santiago+2.8
136-7BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmine+2.8
147-7BELLARNO FLA×3KillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+2.1
158-7NO FLANO FLA×3AceNorth Florida+2.9
169-7NO FLANO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.9
179-8NO FLABELLAR×3KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.1
189-9BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errDakota Spurrier+3.0
199-10BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmineaced Leah McDonald+3.1
2010-10BELLARNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+2.3
2110-11NO FLABELLARServe errNorth Florida+2.4
2211-11BELLARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.4
2311-12NO FLABELLAR×3KillMady Yaden+2.5
2411-13BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmine+3.3
2511-14BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errKaili Doctor+3.1
2612-14BELLARNO FLAServe errBellarmine+2.1
2712-15NO FLABELLARServe errNorth Florida+2.4
2813-15BELLARNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+2.1
2913-16NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+2.5
3014-16BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Dakota Spurrier+2.2
3114-17NO FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.6
3215-17BELLARNO FLAServe errBellarmine+2.2
3315-18NO FLABELLARKillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+2.7
3416-18BELLARNO FLAAttack errMady Yadenset Mary Herman+2.2
3517-18NO FLANO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+3.8
3617-19NO FLABELLAR×3Serve errNorth Florida+3.3
3717-20BELLARBELLAR×3KillMya Whiteset Payton Parsons+3.9
3817-21BELLARBELLAR×3Attack errDakota Spurrier+3.0
3918-21BELLARNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+1.5
4018-22NO FLABELLARKillAbby Julius+2.3
4119-22BELLARNO FLAServe errBellarmine+1.3
4219-23NO FLABELLARKillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+2.2
4319-24BELLARBELLARBlockedKaili Doctorblk Mya White, Mary Herman+1.4
4420-24BELLARNO FLA×4Serve errBellarmine+0.3
4521-24NO FLANO FLA×4KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+0.8
4622-24NO FLANO FLA×4BlockedMya Whiteblk Kaili Doctor+1.8
4723-24NO FLANO FLA×4BlockedMya Whiteblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Kaili Doctor+4.3
4823-25NO FLABELLARAttack errYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+7.5
Set 3
10-1BELLARBELLAR×3KillMady Yaden+3.3
20-2BELLARBELLAR×3KillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+3.3
30-3BELLARBELLAR×3BlockedHaleina Bowersblk Abby Julius, Mady Yaden+3.2
41-3BELLARNO FLAServe errBellarmine+2.2
52-3NO FLA
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.3
62-4NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+2.6
73-4BELLARNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+2.5
83-5NO FLABELLARBlockedLeah McDonaldblk Abby Julius, Natalie Bland+2.6
94-5BELLARNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+2.5
104-6NO FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.7
115-6BELLARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.6
125-7NO FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.8
136-7BELLARNO FLA×4Serve errBellarmine+2.7
147-7NO FLANO FLA×4AceNorth Floridaaced Ava Long+3.8
158-7NO FLANO FLA×4KillHaleina Bowersset Emma Pohlmann+3.9
169-7NO FLANO FLA×4AceNorth Floridaaced Payton Parsons+3.9
179-8NO FLABELLARKillMaddie Carnesset Payton Parsons+2.8
189-9BELLARBELLARAceBellarmineaced Leah McDonald+4.0
1910-9BELLARNO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+3.1
2010-10NO FLABELLARServe errNorth Florida+3.1
2111-10BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.2
2211-11NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+3.2
2312-11BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctor+3.3
2412-12NO FLABELLARKillNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+3.3
2513-12BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+3.5
2613-13NO FLABELLARServe errNorth Florida+3.4
2713-14BELLARBELLARAttack errDakota Spurrier+4.8
2814-14BELLARNO FLABlockedNatalie Blandblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Leah McDonald+3.6
2914-15NO FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+3.8
3015-15BELLARNO FLABlockedMary Hermanblk Dakota Spurrier+3.8
3116-15NO FLANO FLABlockedMady Yadenblk Haleina Bowers, Katelyn Bowman+5.3
3216-16NO FLABELLAR×6KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+4.0
3316-17BELLARBELLAR×6KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+5.6
3416-18BELLARBELLAR×6KillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+5.6
3516-19BELLARBELLAR×6AceBellarmineaced Haleina Bowers+5.0
3616-20BELLARBELLAR×6AceBellarmineaced Kaili Doctor+4.1
3716-21BELLARBELLAR×6AceBellarmineaced Kaili Doctor+2.8
3817-21BELLARNO FLAServe errBellarmine+1.2
3917-22NO FLABELLARKillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+2.0
4018-22BELLARNO FLA×3BlockedMya Whiteblk Kaili Doctor, Haleina Bowers+1.0
4119-22NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedAbby Juliusblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Kaili Doctor+2.3
4220-22NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errMya White+3.9
4320-23NO FLABELLARServe errNorth Florida+4.5
4421-23BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.6
4521-24NO FLABELLARKillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+4.6
4621-25BELLARBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.5
Set 4
11-0NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Dakota Spurrier+3.3
21-1NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Payton Parsons+2.5
32-1BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.5
42-2NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+2.5
53-2BELLARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.6
64-2NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Floridaaced Natalie Bland+3.4
74-3NO FLABELLAR×4KillMary Herman+2.5
84-4BELLARBELLAR×4BlockedDakota Spurrierblk Mary Herman, Maddie Carnes+3.5
94-5BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errLeah McDonald+3.6
104-6BELLARBELLAR×4KillNatalie Blandset Ava Long+3.6
115-6BELLARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.6
125-7NO FLABELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.8
135-8BELLARBELLARKillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+3.6
146-8BELLARNO FLAAttack errNatalie Blandset Maddie Carnes+2.5
156-9NO FLABELLAR×3KillMary Hermanset Maddie Carnes+2.7
166-10BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmineaced Kaili Doctor+3.4
176-11BELLARBELLAR×3AceBellarmineaced Dakota Spurrier+2.9
187-11BELLARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.8
19–208-12NO FLA · BELLAR
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
218-13NO FLABELLAR×4KillMady Yadenset Payton Parsons+2.3
228-14BELLARBELLAR×4BlockedKaili Doctorblk Mya White, Abby Julius+2.4
238-15BELLARBELLAR×4KillMya White+1.8
248-16BELLARBELLAR×4Attack errKaili Doctor+1.3
259-16BELLARNO FLA×3KillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+0.6
2610-16NO FLANO FLA×3KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.2
2711-16NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedAbby Juliusblk Kaili Doctor, Yarimar Francis Garay+1.7
2811-17NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+1.7
2912-17BELLARNO FLAAttack errMya Whiteset Payton Parsons+1.2
3012-18NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Maddie Carnes+1.7
3113-18BELLARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.1
3213-19NO FLABELLARKillMya Whiteset Payton Parsons+1.6
3314-19BELLARNO FLAKillKatelyn Bowmanset Sofia Dawson+1.0
3414-20NO FLABELLAR×3BlockedDakota Spurrierblk Mary Herman, Maddie Carnes+1.5
3514-21BELLARBELLAR×3KillMady Yadenset Maddie Carnes+1.2
3614-22BELLAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.6
3715-22BELLARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.2
3815-23NO FLABELLARServe errNorth Florida+0.3
3915-24BELLARBELLARKillAbby Juliusset Maddie Carnes+0.1
4016-24BELLARNO FLAKillHaleina Bowers·
4117-24NO FLANO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson·
4217-25NO FLABELLARAttack errYarimar Francis Garayset Brooklyn Stringfellow+0.1

Score shown after each rally, North Florida first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).