FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayUAC-

0:3

HomeSEC

Ole Miss def. Central Ark. 3–0

(25-18, 25-18, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
C ARK	18	18	17	0
MISS	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MISS above 50 · C ARK below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to Ole Miss — set 1, C ARK 0-2 MISS. Attack error by Sarah Carnathan. MISS win probability 93% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

C ARK 7.5%92.5% MISS

Central Ark. wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.2%

3-2

4.4%

Ole Miss wins

3-0

49.1%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

12.2%

C ARK break %: 35.4% vs this opp
MISS break %: 46.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sarah CarnathanAttack error+0.7%
Attack error by Sarah Carnathan
Set 1 · C ARK 0-2 MISS · MISS 93% → 94%
02
Melia JohnsonKill+0.6%
Kill by Melia Johnson (set by Vivianna Samaniego)
Set 1 · C ARK 0-3 MISS · MISS 94% → 94%
03
C ARK serverAce+0.6%
Central Ark. ace on Shayla Meyer
Set 1 · C ARK 8-11 MISS · C ARK 5% → 5%
04
Sarah CarnathanAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Sarah Carnathan
Set 1 · C ARK 0-1 MISS · MISS 92% → 93%
05
Carly PaughKill+0.6%
Kill by Carly Paugh
Set 2 · C ARK 0-1 MISS · MISS 96% → 97%
06
MISS serverAce+0.5%
Ole Miss ace on Cameron McDaniel
Set 1 · C ARK 0-4 MISS · MISS 94% → 95%
07
Shayla MeyerKill+0.5%
Kill by Shayla Meyer (set by Vivianna Samaniego)
Set 2 · C ARK 0-2 MISS · MISS 97% → 97%
08
Shayla MeyerKill+0.5%
Kill by Shayla Meyer (set by Vivianna Samaniego)
Set 1 · C ARK 8-13 MISS · MISS 95% → 95%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Central Ark.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Nicole SargentOPP	3	4	4	20	.000	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	5
3Karlyn FrazierMB	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	4.5
5Olivia KremerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	1	2	0	0	0	2
12Sarah CarnathanOH	2	3	5	9	-.222	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
8McKinzee HaasMB	1	3	1	5	.400	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4
23Sophie SkinnerS	1	0	0	1	.000	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Kennady MartindaleMB	3	11	0	25	.440	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	11
1Annie HopkinsOH	3	5	3	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
22Cameron McDanielL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	12	1	0	0	0	0
2Trinity HamiltonOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	0	0
20Greyson ButtonMB	2	4	2	7	.286	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	4
16Tatelyn BrandsmaS	2	0	0	2	.000	20	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
18Berkley BatesL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	17	85	.188	32	5	7	34	9	1	2	2	53

Ole Misshome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Melia JohnsonOH	3	12	1	24	.458	3	0	0	3	1	0	1	0.5	12.5
23Jorda CrookOPP	3	7	2	17	.294	2	0	0	5	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
4Carly PaughMB	3	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	3	5
10Nina MoorerOH	3	2	0	9	.222	2	1	0	4	0	0	2	1	4
20Vivianna SamaniegoS	3	0	0	0	–	16	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
14Shayla MeyerOH	2	9	3	20	.300	1	2	0	3	2	0	0	0	11
6Tenesyn FryeS	3	3	0	6	.500	13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
11Bella BonannoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
21Cameron BradleyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	15	0	0	0	0	0
1Jaidyn HartsfieldOH	1	7	0	12	.583	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team totals		42	7	93	.376	39	9	5	31	5	2	8	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 C ARK · MISS 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 C ARKMISS 5

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 2 C ARKMISS 3

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 2 C ARKMISS 7

Bars above the line = Ole Miss leads, below = Central Ark. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Central Ark.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%8/20	36%4/11
2	58%7/12	27%3/11
3	67%6/9	0%0/7
4	43%6/14	25%2/8
5	75%6/8	45%5/11
6	50%5/10	14%1/7
All	52%38/73	27%15/55

Ole Miss

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	40%4/10
2	80%8/10	58%11/19
3	100%6/6	54%7/13
4	60%6/10	14%1/7
5	60%6/10	57%8/14
6	100%6/6	40%4/10
All	73%40/55	48%35/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

128 rallies

Rally log

#	C ARK-MISS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	C ARK	MISS×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.6
2	0-2	MISS	MISS×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.7
3	0-3	MISS	MISS×5	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.6
4	0-4	MISS	MISS×5	Ace	MISS server	aced Cameron McDaniel	+0.5
5	0-5	MISS	MISS×5	Ace	MISS server	aced Sarah Carnathan	+0.4
6	1-5	MISS	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Sophie Skinner	+0.3
7	1-6	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.3
8	2-6	MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Shayla Meyer		+0.3
9	2-7	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Jorda Crook	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.3
10	3-7	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.3
11	3-8	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.3
12	4-8	MISS	C ARK	Serve err	MISS server		+0.3
13	4-9	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Nina Moorer	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.3
14	4-10	MISS	MISS	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.3
15	5-10	MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Shayla Meyer		+0.2
16	5-11	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Tenesyn Frye	set Melia Johnson	+0.2
17	6-11	MISS	C ARK×3	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Sophie Skinner	+0.2
18	7-11	C ARK	C ARK×3	Bad set	Vivianna Samaniego		+0.4
19	8-11	C ARK	C ARK×3	Ace	C ARK server	aced Shayla Meyer	+0.6
20	8-12	C ARK	MISS×5	Kill	Jorda Crook	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.4
21	8-13	MISS	MISS×5	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.5
22	8-14	MISS	MISS×5	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.3
23	8-15	MISS	MISS×5	Attack err	McKinzee Haas	blk Carly Paugh	+0.2
24	8-16	MISS	MISS×5	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Jorda Crook, Carly Paugh	+0.1
25	9-16	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.1
26	10-16	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Melia Johnson	+0.1
27	10-17	C ARK	MISS×4	Kill	Jorda Crook	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.1
28	10-18	MISS	MISS×4	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.1
29	10-19	MISS	MISS×4	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan	blk Nina Moorer, Jorda Crook	+0.1
30	10-20	MISS	MISS×4	Attack err	Annie Hopkins		+0.0
31	11-20	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Sarah Carnathan	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
32	11-21	C ARK	MISS	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.0
33	12-21	MISS	C ARK×3	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
34	13-21	C ARK	C ARK×3	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
35	14-21	C ARK	C ARK×3	Ace	C ARK server	aced Team	+0.0
36	14-22	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.0
37	14-23	MISS	MISS	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Nina Moorer	+0.0
38	15-23	MISS	C ARK×3	Serve err	MISS server		+0.0
39	16-23	C ARK	C ARK×3	Attack err	Jorda Crook		+0.0
40	17-23	C ARK	C ARK×3	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
41	17-24	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.0
42	18-24	MISS	C ARK	Kill	McKinzee Haas	set Sophie Skinner	+0.0
43	18-25	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Cameron Bradley	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MISS	MISS	Kill	Carly Paugh		+0.6
2	0-2	MISS	MISS	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.5
3	1-2	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.3
4	1-3	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Jorda Crook	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.3
5	1-4	MISS	MISS	Attack err	Sarah Carnathan		+0.4
6	2-4	MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Carly Paugh	blk Karlyn Frazier	+0.3
7	2-5	C ARK	MISS×3	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.3
8	2-6	MISS	MISS×3	Attack err	Greyson Button		+0.4
9	2-7	MISS	MISS×3	Kill	Nina Moorer	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.3
10	3-7	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
11	3-8	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.2
12	4-8	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
13	5-8	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Shayla Meyer	+0.3
14	5-9	C ARK	MISS	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.3
15	6-9	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.3
16	6-10	C ARK	MISS×3	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.3
17	6-11	MISS	MISS×3	Kill	Tenesyn Frye	set Nina Moorer	+0.3
18	6-12	MISS	MISS×3	Kill	Jorda Crook	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.2
19	7-12	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
20	7-13	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.1
21	8-13	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
22	9-13	C ARK	C ARK	Ace	C ARK server	aced Team	+0.3
23	9-14	C ARK	MISS	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.2
24	10-14	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
25	10-15	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Shayla Meyer	+0.2
26	11-15	MISS	C ARK	Serve err	MISS server		+0.2
27	11-16	C ARK	MISS	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.2
28	11-17	MISS	MISS	Attack err	Nicole Sargent		+0.2
29	12-17	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
30	13-17	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
31	13-18	C ARK	MISS	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.2
32	13-19	MISS	MISS	Ace	MISS server	aced Team	+0.2
33	14-19	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.1
34	15-19	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
35	15-20	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Shayla Meyer	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.2
36	15-21	MISS	MISS	Ace	MISS server	aced Trinity Hamilton	+0.2
37	16-21	MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Shayla Meyer	blk Tatelyn Brandsma, Karlyn Frazier	+0.1
38	16-22	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Tenesyn Frye	set Melia Johnson	+0.1
39	17-22	MISS	C ARK	Serve err	MISS server		+0.0
40	17-23	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Jorda Crook	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.1
41	18-23	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
42	18-24	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.0
43	18-25	MISS	MISS	Attack err	Annie Hopkins	blk Nina Moorer, Melia Johnson	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.3
2	1-1	C ARK	MISS×3	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.2
3	1-2	MISS	MISS×3	Kill	Jaidyn Hartsfield		+0.3
4	1-3	MISS	MISS×3	Attack err	Karlyn Frazier		+0.2
5	2-3	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
6	2-4	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Jaidyn Hartsfield	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.2
7	2-5	MISS	MISS	Kill	Jaidyn Hartsfield	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.2
8	3-5	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.1
9	3-6	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Jaidyn Hartsfield	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.1
10	4-6	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.1
11	4-7	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Jaidyn Hartsfield	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.1
12	5-7	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
13	6-7	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.3
14	6-8	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.2
15	7-8	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Cameron McDaniel	+0.2
16	7-9	C ARK	MISS	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.2
17	7-10	MISS	MISS	Ace	MISS server	aced Nicole Sargent	+0.2
18	8-10	MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Jorda Crook		+0.2
19	8-11	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Jorda Crook	set Vivianna Samaniego	+0.2
20	9-11	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Kennady Martindale	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
21	9-12	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Jaidyn Hartsfield	set Melia Johnson	+0.2
22	10-12	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Nicole Sargent	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.2
23	10-13	C ARK	MISS	Serve err	C ARK server		+0.2
24	11-13	MISS	C ARK	Bad set	Tenesyn Frye		+0.2
25	11-14	C ARK	MISS×7	Kill	Jaidyn Hartsfield	set Jorda Crook	+0.2
26	11-15	MISS	MISS×7	Ace	MISS server	aced Team	+0.2
27	11-16	MISS	MISS×7	Attack err	Greyson Button		+0.2
28	11-17	MISS	MISS×7	Ace	MISS server	aced Team	+0.1
29	11-18	MISS	MISS×7	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.1
30	11-19	MISS	MISS×7	Ace	MISS server	aced Olivia Kremer	+0.0
31	11-20	MISS	MISS×7	Ace	MISS server	aced Olivia Kremer	+0.0
32	12-20	MISS	C ARK	Attack err	Melia Johnson		+0.0
33	12-21	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Tenesyn Frye	+0.0
34	13-21	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Greyson Button	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
35	13-22	C ARK	MISS	Kill	Melia Johnson	set Cameron Bradley	+0.0
36	13-23	MISS	MISS	Kill	Carly Paugh	set Jorda Crook	+0.0
37	14-23	MISS	C ARK	Serve err	MISS server		+0.0
38	15-23	C ARK	C ARK	Bad set	Vivianna Samaniego		+0.0
39	15-24	C ARK	MISS	Attack err	Annie Hopkins	blk Carly Paugh, Jorda Crook	+0.0
40	16-24	MISS	C ARK	Kill	Karlyn Frazier	set Tatelyn Brandsma	+0.0
41	17-24	C ARK	C ARK	Kill	Annie Hopkins	set Jorda Crook	+0.0
42	17-25	C ARK	MISS	Attack err	Karlyn Frazier	blk Carly Paugh	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Central Ark. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.