Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on ACCNX

North Carolina def. California 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: North Carolina 80.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

North Carolina beat visiting California 3-1 (25-21, 25-27, 25-17, 25-20) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. North Carolina's Laynie Smith led with 14 kills, and Julia Bohlinger added 18 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set1234Sets
CAL212717201
UNC252525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

North Carolina led every phase, and nothing ever turned.

The biggest single-rally swing was 7.4 points, and California's high was 26% in Set 2. The gap came from these numbers. RallyIQ gave North Carolina 80% before first serve.

CaliforniaNorth Carolina
  • Break %+9.8 pts
    32.642.4

    42 of 99 on serve vs 28 of 86, so California's sideout was 57.6%.

  • Hitting+.123
    .156.279

    61 K / 18 E against 52 K / 26 E.

  • Longest run+1
    45

    Down 8–9 in the fourth set, North Carolina scored 5 straight to lead 13–9. The set finished 25–20.

North Carolina above 50California belowMax swing 7.4%

CaliforniaNorth Carolina

Aces
California 3·North Carolina 1
Serve err
California 10·North Carolina 6
Blocks
California 9·North Carolina 124 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 20 BA
Digs
California 64·North Carolina 69

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

North Carolina above 50 · California below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.4% CALrally 185 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.4% to California — set 2, CAL 27-25 UNC. Attack error by Safi Hampton. UNC win probability 82% → 74%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CAL 15.4%84.6% UNC

California wins

3-0
2.3%
3-1
4.9%
3-2
8.1%

North Carolina wins

3-0
36.6%
3-1
31.3%
3-2
16.7%
CAL break %
35.7% vs this opp
UNC break %
43.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Safi HamptonAttack error+7.4%

    Attack error by Safi Hampton

    Set 2 · CAL 27-25 UNC · CAL 18% → 26%

  2. 02
    Anna FloresAttack error+4.9%

    Attack error by Anna Flores

    Set 2 · CAL 23-23 UNC · UNC 81% → 86%

  3. 03
    Cari BohmKill+4.1%

    Kill by Cari Bohm (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 2 · CAL 24-23 UNC · CAL 14% → 18%

  4. 04
    Ashley LiAttack error+4.1%

    Attack error by Ashley Li

    Set 2 · CAL 24-24 UNC · UNC 82% → 86%

  5. 05

    Kill by Abby Zimmerman (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 2 · CAL 25-24 UNC · CAL 14% → 18%

  6. 06
    Safi HamptonKill+4.1%

    Kill by Safi Hampton (set by Zoe Behrendt)

    Set 2 · CAL 25-25 UNC · UNC 82% → 86%

  7. 07

    Kill by Abby Zimmerman (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 2 · CAL 26-25 UNC · CAL 14% → 18%

  8. 08
    Cari BohmKill+3.4%

    Kill by Cari Bohm

    Set 2 · CAL 23-20 UNC · CAL 20% → 23%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413847.106004110111.514.5
412326.3460122010114
49523.17400010153.512.5
47527.07401120010.58.5
43214.0714201140111.54.5
4000–100800000
45225.120012300217
41011.0001001400001
14Elise LauL/DS
4000–000100000
4000–100700000
3000–000100000
1113.000100000001
11011.000000000001
Team totals5226167.15646310641410985
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413326.38510040174.517.5
414225.48010020031.515.5
412435.2290006002113
48633.061200700219
43211.09110010132.55.5
4000–25021200000
411124.41700080031.512.5
4000–1911900001
4000–002200000
4000–10011800000
Team totals6118154.279591669322012100

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 CAL · UNC 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 CALUNC 4

Set 2

27-25

Longest run 3 CALUNC 3

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 4 CALUNC 4

Set 4

20-25

Longest run 3 CALUNC 5

Bars above the line = North Carolina leads, below = California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
36%5/14
2
63%10/16
31%5/16
3
48%10/21
23%3/13
4
59%10/17
38%6/16
5
67%8/12
29%4/14
6
62%8/13
38%5/13
All
58%57/99
33%28/86

North Carolina

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
41%7/17
2
83%10/12
33%5/15
3
63%10/16
50%10/20
4
71%10/14
38%6/16
5
64%9/14
47%8/17
6
73%8/11
43%6/14
All
67%58/86
42%42/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

185 rallies

#CAL-UNCSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.3
22-0CALCALBlockedLauren Schutterblk Sawyer Thomsen+2.1
32-1CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.2
43-1UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.4
53-2CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.3
64-2UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.4
74-3CALUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+1.3
84-4UNCUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Julia Bohlinger+2.1
95-4UNCCALServe errNorth Carolina+1.4
105-5CALUNC×3KillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.3
115-6UNCUNC×3BlockedCari Bohmblk Lauren Schutter, Chelsea Thorpe+2.0
125-7UNCUNC×3Attack errCari Bohm+1.8
136-7UNCCAL×3KillAnna Flores+1.2
147-7CALCAL×3BlockedSafi Hamptonblk Anna Flores, Cari Bohm+2.1
158-7CALCAL×3BlockedLauren Schutterblk Cari Bohm+2.4
168-8CALUNCServe errCalifornia+1.4
178-9UNCUNCKillLauren Schutterset Sienna Cozza+2.2
189-9UNCCALServe errNorth Carolina+1.5
199-10CALUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+1.4
2010-10UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.5
2110-11CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Julia Bohlinger+1.5
2211-11UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.6
2311-12CALUNC×4KillJackie Taylorset Sienna Cozza+1.5
2411-13UNCUNC×4AceZoe Behrendt+2.3
2511-14UNCUNC×4KillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.9
2611-15UNCUNC×4KillAddison Westset Julia Bohlinger+1.5
2712-15UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.8
2812-16CALUNCServe errCalifornia+0.9
2913-16UNCCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.8
3014-16CALCALAttack errJackie Taylor+1.8
3114-17CALUNCServe errCalifornia+1.3
3215-17UNCCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.2
3315-18CALUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.4
3415-19UNCUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.6
3516-19UNCCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.7
3616-20CALUNCBlockedAshley Liblk Laynie Smith, Lauren Schutter+1.0
3716-21UNCUNCKillAddison Westset Lauren Schutter+1.0
3817-21UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.3
3918-21CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.0
4018-22CALUNCKillAddison Westset Sienna Cozza+1.0
4119-22UNCCALAttack errAddison West+0.5
4219-23CALUNCKillJackie Taylorset Sienna Cozza+0.9
4320-23UNCCALServe errNorth Carolina+0.4
4420-24CALUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+0.7
4521-24UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.2
4621-25CALUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+0.5
Set 2
10-1CALUNCAttack errAbby Zimmerman+0.8
21-1UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.9
31-2CALUNCKillAddison Westset Sienna Cozza+0.8
42-2UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.9
52-3CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+0.9
63-3UNCCAL×3KillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.9
74-3CALCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.6
85-3CALCAL×3Attack errAddison West+1.7
95-4CALUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+1.0
106-4UNCCALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.2
117-4CALCALAttack errSafi Hampton+1.9
127-5CALUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.0
138-5UNCCAL×3KillSophia Johnsonset Francesca Popescu+1.2
149-5CALCAL×3Attack errSafi Hampton+1.9
1510-5CALCAL×3Attack errSafi Hampton+1.8
1610-6CALUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+0.9
1710-7UNCUNCBlockedAshley Liblk Lauren Schutter, Laynie Smith+1.6
1811-7UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.3
1911-8CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.0
2012-8UNCCALAttack errAddison West+1.3
2112-9CALUNCKillAddison Westset Sienna Cozza+1.0
2213-9UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.3
2313-10CALUNC×3Serve errCalifornia+1.0
2413-11UNCUNC×3Attack errAbby Zimmerman+1.9
2513-12UNCUNC×3KillAddison Westset Zoe Behrendt+2.1
2614-12UNCCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+1.5
2714-13CALUNCServe errCalifornia+1.3
2815-13UNCCALBlockedJackie Taylorblk Anna Flores+1.6
2916-13CALCALAceGrace Agolli+2.5
3016-14CALUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.2
3116-15UNCUNCAttack errCari Bohm+2.3
3217-15UNCCALAttack errAbby Zimmerman+1.8
3317-16CALUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+1.5
3418-16UNCCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.9
3519-16CALCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+2.8
3619-17CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.3
3720-17UNCCALAttack errLaynie Smith+1.9
3820-18CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.3
3920-19UNCUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+2.8
4021-19UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.4
4121-20CALUNCKillJackie Taylorset Sienna Cozza+1.8
4222-20UNCCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.6
4323-20CALCALKillCari Bohm+3.4
4423-21CALUNC×3KillAddison Westset Julia Bohlinger+1.1
4523-22UNCUNC×3Attack errChelsea Thorpe+3.1
4623-23UNCUNC×3Attack errAnna Flores+4.9
4724-23UNCCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+4.1
4824-24CALUNCAttack errAshley Li+4.1
4925-24UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+4.1
5025-25CALUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+4.1
5126-25UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+4.1
5227-25CALCALAttack errSafi Hampton+7.4
Set 3
10-1UNCUNCAttack errAbby Zimmerman+2.7
20-2UNCUNCKillJackie Taylorset Julia Bohlinger+2.5
31-2UNCCALServe errNorth Carolina+1.6
42-2CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.8
52-3CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.7
62-4UNCUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Julia Bohlinger+2.6
73-4UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.7
83-5CALUNCBlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Jackie Taylor, Safi Hampton+1.6
94-5UNCCALAttack errJackie Taylor+1.7
104-6CALUNCServe errCalifornia+1.7
115-6UNCCALBad setCarly Markham+1.7
125-7CALUNCAttack errAnna Flores+1.7
136-7UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.8
146-8CALUNCKillLauren Schutterset Sienna Cozza+1.8
157-8UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.8
167-9CALUNC×3KillSafi Hamptonset Laynie Smith+1.8
177-10UNCUNC×3Attack errAbby Zimmerman+2.6
187-11UNCUNC×3Attack errSawyer Thomsen+2.2
198-11UNCCALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.2
208-12CALUNCKillAddison Westset Sienna Cozza+1.3
218-13UNCUNCAttack errSawyer Thomsen+1.7
229-13UNCCALBad setJackie Taylor+0.9
239-14CALUNC×4KillChelsea Thorpeset Julia Bohlinger+1.0
249-15UNCUNC×4Attack errGrace Agolli+1.2
259-16UNCUNC×4Attack errAbby Zimmerman+0.8
269-17UNCUNC×4BlockedCari Bohmblk Jackie Taylor+0.4
2710-17UNCCAL×4KillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.2
2811-17CALCAL×4KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.4
2912-17CALCAL×4BlockedChelsea Thorpeblk Grace Agolli, Cari Bohm+0.7
3013-17CALCAL×4Attack errSafi Hampton+1.2
3113-18CALUNCServe errCalifornia+1.0
3214-18UNCCALKillAnna Floresset Siena MacCudden+0.7
3314-19CALUNCServe errCalifornia+1.0
3415-19UNCCALBlockedLaynie Smithblk Ashley Li, Cari Bohm+0.7
3515-20CALUNC×3KillLauren Schutterset Sienna Cozza+1.0
3615-21UNCUNC×3KillAddison Westset Julia Bohlinger+0.8
3715-22UNCUNC×3BlockedSawyer Thomsenblk Lauren Schutter+0.4
3816-22UNCCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.1
3916-23CALUNCServe errCalifornia+0.2
4016-24UNCUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+0.1
4117-24UNCCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores·
4217-25CALUNCBlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Jackie Taylor, Addison West·
Set 4
11-0CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Sophia Johnson+2.4
22-0CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+2.6
32-1CALUNC×3KillSafi Hamptonset Sienna Cozza+1.5
42-2UNCUNC×3Attack errGrace Agolli+2.4
52-3UNCUNC×3KillLaynie Smithset Julia Bohlinger+2.3
63-3UNCCAL×3KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.5
74-3CALCAL×3AceSawyer Thomsen+2.6
85-3CALCAL×3BlockedLaynie Smithblk Cari Bohm, Grace Agolli+2.8
95-4CALUNCKillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.6
106-4UNCCAL×3BlockedAddison Westblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+1.9
117-4CALCAL×3KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+3.0
128-4CALCAL×3KillCari Bohm+3.0
138-5CALUNC×4KillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+1.6
148-6UNCUNC×4KillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+2.8
158-7UNCUNC×4KillChelsea Thorpeset Julia Bohlinger+2.9
168-8UNCUNC×4KillChelsea Thorpeset Zoe Behrendt+2.9
179-8UNCCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.0
189-9CALUNC×5KillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+1.8
199-10UNCUNC×5BlockedAshley Liblk Chelsea Thorpe, Jackie Taylor+2.8
209-11UNCUNC×5BlockedCari Bohmblk Safi Hampton, Jackie Taylor+2.6
219-12UNCUNC×5KillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+2.2
229-13UNCUNC×5BlockedAshley Liblk Chelsea Thorpe, Jackie Taylor+1.8
2310-13UNCCALKillAshleigh Woodruffset Anna Flores+1.0
2411-13CALCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.0
2511-14CALUNCAttack errAshley Li+1.4
2611-15UNCUNCKillChelsea Thorpeset Jackie Taylor+1.9
2712-15UNCCALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.0
2813-15CALCALBlockedSafi Hamptonblk Abby Zimmerman+2.1
2913-16CALUNCKillSafi Hamptonset Zoe Behrendt+1.5
3014-16UNCCALServe errSienna Cozza+1.4
3115-16CALCALAceAshley Li+2.9
3215-17CALUNCServe errAshley Li+2.0
3315-18UNCUNCKillAddison Westset Safi Hampton+2.7
3416-18UNCCALAttack errAbby Zimmerman+1.4
3516-19CALUNC×4KillAddison Westset Safi Hampton+1.7
3616-20UNCUNC×4BlockedAshleigh Woodruffblk Jackie Taylor, Laynie Smith+2.0
3716-21UNCUNC×4BlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Addison West, Jackie Taylor+1.2
3816-22UNCUNC×4KillLaynie Smithset Sienna Cozza+0.6
3917-22UNCCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.1
4018-22CALCALKillAnna Floresset Ashleigh Woodruff+0.5
4118-23CALUNCKillAddison Westset Julia Bohlinger+0.5
4219-23UNCCALKillDominique Phillsset Anna Flores+0.2
4319-24CALUNCKillJackie Taylorset Francesca Popescu+0.4
4420-24UNCCALServe errCarly Markham+0.1
4520-25CALUNCKillJackie Taylorset Zoe Behrendt+0.2

Score shown after each rally, California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).