Final · 4 setsSun, Aug 30, 2026 · Neutral site

CSUN def. Central Ark. 3–1

CSUN beat Central Ark. 3-1 (25-19, 25-16, 21-25, 25-17) on Sun, Aug 30, 2026 at a neutral site. CSUN's Hailey Brockway led with 25 kills, and Paige Sentes added 19 digs.

Data through · final Aug 30

Set1234Sets
CSUN252521253
C ARK191625171

Win probability

Central Ark. above 50 · CSUN below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+2.5% C ARKrally 173 · set 4

Biggest swing: 2.5% to Central Ark. — set 4, CSUN 14-13 C ARK. Point Central Ark. (not logged in NCAA feed). C ARK win probability 7% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CSUN 82.2%17.8% C ARK

CSUN wins

3-0
33.8%
3-1
30.8%
3-2
17.6%

Central Ark. wins

3-0
2.8%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
9.2%
CSUN break %
47.0% vs this opp
C ARK break %
39.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+2.5%

    Point Central Ark. (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · CSUN 14-13 C ARK · C ARK 7% → 9%

  2. 02
    Iye OkoloKill+2.3%

    Kill by Iye Okolo

    Set 4 · CSUN 16-13 C ARK · CSUN 93% → 95%

  3. 03

    Kill by Karlyn Frazier (set by Jan Marie Duhaylungsod)

    Set 4 · CSUN 11-10 C ARK · C ARK 7% → 9%

  4. 04
    Sarah CarnathanAttack error+2.1%

    Attack error by Sarah Carnathan

    Set 4 · CSUN 14-11 C ARK · CSUN 93% → 95%

  5. 05
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+2.0%

    Point Central Ark. (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 1 · CSUN 6-7 C ARK · C ARK 18% → 20%

  6. 06

    Kill by Audrey Nuckols (set by Katie Kolar)

    Set 4 · CSUN 15-13 C ARK · CSUN 91% → 93%

  7. 07
    CSUNAce+2.0%

    CSUN ace on Cameron McDaniel

    Set 1 · CSUN 10-9 C ARK · CSUN 81% → 83%

  8. 08
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+1.9%

    Point CSUN (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · CSUN 2-1 C ARK · CSUN 89% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

CSUNaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
425955.29111413104228
410014.7140031018515
48224.2500006004210
46114.357000400217
44411.000000000637
4001.0002700500000
47420.150000100429
4000–4231900002
41011.0002600800001
4012-.500000700000
1001.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6121143.280583106411281596
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412329.3100103002114
47621.048000001229
4214.2502301500002
4000–0021210000
38532.094100400219
1005.00000000010.50.5
45112.333000001227
44928-.179000201015
41011.000800500001
4000–7011320000
34010.400000000004
3236-.16700010010.52.5
2000–100400000
1000–000100000
Team totals4528148.1154014503310877

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 CSUN · C ARK 5

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 6 CSUNC ARK 4

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 8 CSUNC ARK 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 CSUNC ARK 5

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 4 CSUNC ARK 2

Bars above the line = Central Ark. leads, below = CSUN leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

CSUN

No clean sets to split.

Central Ark.

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

173 rallies

#CSUN-C ARKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.1
21-1CSUNC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.2
32-1C ARKCSUNAttack errNicole Sargent+1.2
42-2CSUNC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Sophie Skinner+1.3
52-3C ARKC ARKKillElla Chaney+1.8
63-3CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.3
74-3CSUNCSUNKillAnnie Gilmore+1.6
84-4CSUNC ARKKillTatelyn Brandsma+1.3
95-4C ARKCSUNKillTatiana Turgeon+1.3
105-5CSUNC ARKAttack errTatiana Turgeon+1.4
116-5C ARKCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+1.3
126-6CSUNC ARKKillMcKinzee Haas+1.4
136-7C ARK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.0
147-7C ARKCSUNKillAnnie Gilmoreset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+1.5
157-8CSUNC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.6
168-8C ARKCSUNServe errCentral Ark.+1.5
178-9CSUNC ARKKillElla Chaney+1.7
189-9C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockway+1.6
1910-9CSUNCSUNAceCSUNaced Cameron McDaniel+2.0
20–2111-10CSUN · C ARK
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
2212-10CSUNCSUN×3KillTatiana Turgeon+1.9
2313-10CSUNCSUN×3KillAnnie Gilmoreset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+1.6
2413-11CSUNC ARKBlockedAnnie Gilmoreblk Ella Chaney, Greyson Button+1.2
2514-11C ARKCSUN×6KillHailey Brockwayset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+1.3
2615-11CSUNCSUN×6KillTatiana Turgeon+1.4
27–2817-11CSUN 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
2918-11CSUNCSUN×6KillAnnie Gilmoreset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+0.5
3019-11CSUNCSUN×6KillTatiana Turgeon+0.3
3119-12CSUNC ARKServe errCSUN+0.1
3220-12CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
3320-13CSUNC ARK×3Attack errAnnie Gilmore+0.1
34–3621-15CSUN · C ARK 2
NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
3722-15CSUNCSUNKillFallyn Blotzer+0.3
38–4022-18C ARK 3
NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.8
4122-19C ARKC ARK×4AceMcKinzee Haasaced Hailey Brockway+0.9
4223-19C ARKCSUN×3KillHailey Brockwayset Katie Kolar+1.1
4324-19CSUNCSUN×3KillHailey Brockwayset Katie Kolar+0.6
4425-19CSUNCSUN×3BlockedNicole Sargentblk Hailey Brockway, Tatiana Turgeon+0.1
Set 2
10-1CSUNC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Sophie Skinner+1.0
21-1C ARKCSUNKillIye Okoloset Katie Kolar+0.9
31-2C ARK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.0
41-3C ARKC ARKAttack errIye Okolo+1.4
52-3CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.0
63-3CSUNCSUN×6Attack errElla Chaney+1.3
74-3CSUNCSUN×6Attack errNicole Sargent+1.2
85-3CSUNCSUN×6BlockedNicole Sargentblk Hailey Brockway, Tatiana Turgeon+1.1
96-3CSUNCSUN×6KillAudrey Nuckols+1.0
107-3CSUNCSUN×6AceCSUNaced Olivia Kremer+0.8
117-4CSUNC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Sophie Skinner+0.6
128-4C ARKCSUN×8Attack errElla Chaney+0.6
139-4CSUNCSUN×8KillJan Marie Duhaylungsodset Paige Sentes+0.7
1410-4CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.6
1511-4CSUNCSUN×8KillHailey Brockwayset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+0.4
1612-4CSUNCSUN×8Attack errElla Chaney+0.3
1713-4CSUNCSUN×8KillHailey Brockwayset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+0.2
1814-4CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
1915-4CSUNCSUN×8KillHailey Brockwayset Paige Sentes+0.1
2015-5CSUNC ARKAttack errHailey Brockway·
2115-6C ARKC ARKAttack errAnnie Gilmore+0.1
2216-6C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockway+0.1
2316-7CSUNC ARKAttack errHailey Brockway+0.1
2417-7C ARKCSUNAttack errHailey Brockway+0.1
2518-7CSUNCSUNAttack errAnnie Hopkins·
2618-8CSUNC ARK×4Serve errCSUN·
2718-9C ARKC ARK×4Attack errFallyn Blotzer·
2818-10C ARKC ARK×4KillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+0.1
2918-11C ARKC ARK×4KillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+0.1
3019-11C ARKCSUNKillAnnie Gilmoreset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+0.2
3120-11CSUNCSUNAttack errMcKinzee Haas+0.1
3220-12CSUNC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner·
3320-13C ARKC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+0.1
3421-13C ARKCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+0.1
3521-14CSUNC ARKKillMcKinzee Haas+0.1
3622-14CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.1
3723-14CSUNCSUNServe errCSUN·
3823-15CSUNC ARKServe errCSUN·
3924-15C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockway·
4024-16CSUNC ARKKillAnnie Hopkinsset Cameron McDaniel·
4125-16C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod·
Set 3
11-0C ARKCSUNKillIye Okoloset Katie Kolar+0.4
21-1CSUNC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Sophie Skinner+0.5
31-2C ARKC ARKServe errCentral Ark.+0.7
42-2C ARKCSUNServe errCentral Ark.+0.5
52-3CSUNC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Sophie Skinner+0.5
63-3C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Katie Kolar+0.5
73-4CSUNC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+0.5
84-4CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
94-5CSUNC ARKBlockedFallyn Blotzerblk Annie Hopkins, Karlyn Frazier+0.6
105-5C ARKCSUNAttack errSarah Carnathan+0.5
11–126-6CSUN · C ARK
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

·
137-6CSUNCSUN×3KillFallyn Blotzer+0.7
148-6CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.6
158-7CSUNC ARKKillMcKinzee Haas+0.5
169-7CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
179-8CSUNC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Fallyn Blotzer+0.5
1810-8C ARKCSUNAttack errMcKinzee Haas+0.5
1911-8CSUNCSUNKillHailey Brockway+0.6
2011-9CSUNC ARKAttack errHailey Brockway+0.4
2112-9C ARKCSUNKillTatiana Turgeonset Katie Kolar+0.5
2212-10CSUNC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Cameron McDaniel+0.4
2313-10C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Paige Sentes+0.5
2413-11CSUNC ARKServe errCSUN+0.5
2513-12C ARKC ARKKillSarah Carnathanset Cameron McDaniel+0.7
2614-12C ARKCSUNKillTatiana Turgeonset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+0.6
2714-13CSUNC ARKAttack errTatiana Turgeon+0.6
2815-13C ARKCSUNKillIye Okoloset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+0.6
2915-14CSUNC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Tatelyn Brandsma+0.6
3016-14C ARKCSUNAttack errMcKinzee Haas+0.6
3117-14CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.7
3217-15CSUNC ARK×5KillSophie Skinnerset Ella Chaney+0.5
3317-16C ARKC ARK×5Attack errIye Okolo+0.9
3417-17C ARKC ARK×5Serve errCentral Ark.+1.1
3517-18C ARKC ARK×5Attack errHailey Brockway+1.3
36–3718-19CSUN · C ARK
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.5
3818-20CSUNC ARK×3KillElla Chaneyset Sophie Skinner+1.2
3918-21C ARK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.4
4018-22C ARKC ARK×3Serve errCentral Ark.+1.2
4119-22C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Katie Kolar+0.5
4219-23CSUNC ARKKillElla Chaneyset Sophie Skinner+0.9
4320-23C ARKCSUNKillTatiana Turgeonset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+0.4
4420-24CSUNC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Sophie Skinner+0.8
4521-24C ARKCSUNAttack errSarah Carnathan+0.2
4621-25CSUNC ARKKillSophie Skinnerset Cameron McDaniel+0.6
Set 4
1–32-1CSUN 2 · C ARK
NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.8
42-2CSUNC ARKKillMcKinzee Haasset Sophie Skinner+1.5
53-2C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+1.5
63-3CSUNC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Cameron McDaniel+1.6
74-3C ARKCSUNKillAnnie Gilmoreset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+1.5
84-4C ARK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.6
95-4C ARKCSUN×3KillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+1.5
106-4CSUNCSUN×3Attack errAnnie Hopkins+1.9
117-4CSUNCSUN×3BlockedKarlyn Frazierblk Hailey Brockway, Iye Okolo+1.7
127-5CSUNC ARKKillAnnie Hopkinsset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.3
138-5C ARKCSUNKillAudrey Nuckolsset Katie Kolar+1.3
149-5CSUNCSUNKillHailey Brockway+1.5
159-6CSUNC ARKKillKennady Martindale+1.1
1610-6CSUN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.1
1710-7CSUNC ARKAttack errHailey Brockway+1.1
1810-8C ARKC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+1.7
1911-8C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+1.4
2011-9CSUNC ARKAttack errHailey Brockway+1.4
2111-10C ARKC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+2.2
2212-10C ARKCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+1.7
2312-11CSUNC ARKKillNicole Sargentset Sophie Skinner+1.8
2413-11C ARKCSUNKillAnnie Gilmoreset Paige Sentes+1.8
2514-11CSUNCSUNAttack errSarah Carnathan+2.1
2614-12CSUNC ARKKillKarlyn Frazierset Tatelyn Brandsma+1.5
2714-13C ARK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.5
2815-13C ARKCSUN×3KillAudrey Nuckolsset Katie Kolar+2.0
2916-13CSUNCSUN×3KillIye Okolo+2.3
3017-13CSUNCSUN×3KillHailey Brockway+1.8
3117-14C ARK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.2
3218-14C ARKCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Katie Kolar+1.4
3319-14CSUNCSUNKillHailey Brockway+1.3
3419-15CSUNC ARKAttack errRaegan Richardson+0.7
3520-15C ARKCSUNKillAudrey Nuckolsset Katie Kolar+1.0
3621-15CSUNCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Jan Marie Duhaylungsod+0.7
3721-16C ARK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.3
3821-17C ARKC ARKBlockedAnnie Gilmoreblk Sarah Carnathan+0.7
39–4023-17CSUN 2
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.4
4124-17CSUNCSUN×4AceCSUNaced Cameron McDaniel+0.2
4225-17CSUNCSUN×4BlockedSarah Carnathanblk Tatiana Turgeon, Annie Gilmore·

Score shown after each rally, CSUN first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).