Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

UC San Diego def. UC Riverside 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: UC San Diego 94.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UC San Diego won at UC Riverside 3-2 (25-17, 24-26, 25-20, 19-25, 15-8) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. UC San Diego's Ireland McNees led with 22 kills, and Paulina Baillie added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set12345Sets
UCSD25242519153
UC RIV1726202582

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Molly McCluskey served 4 aces, and UC San Diego needed every one.

One stretch decided it. Percentages are UC San Diego's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. UC San Diego went in as RallyIQ's 94% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · UC San Diego 1–1 UC Riverside

    6 straight UC San Diego points broke a 1–1 tie and made it 7–1.

    UC San Diego 76% → 98%

UC Riverside above 50UC San Diego belowMax swing 5.5%

UC San DiegoUC Riverside

Sideout %
UC San Diego 64.9·UC Riverside 57.9
Break %
UC San Diego 42.1·UC Riverside 35.1
Hitting
UC San Diego .265·UC Riverside .226
Longest run
UC San Diego 6·UC Riverside 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

UC Riverside above 50 · UC San Diego below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+5.5% UCSDrally 204 · set 5

Biggest swing: 5.5% to UC San Diego — set 5, UCSD 3-1 UC RIV. Kill by Madison Johnson (set by Brynne McGhie). UC RIV win probability 20% → 14%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCSD 93.2%6.8% UC RIV

UC San Diego wins

3-0
50.8%
3-1
30.8%
3-2
11.6%

UC Riverside wins

3-0
0.8%
3-1
2.0%
3-2
4.0%
UCSD break %
48.8% vs this opp
UC RIV break %
37.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Madison Johnson (set by Brynne McGhie)

    Set 5 · UCSD 3-1 UC RIV · UCSD 80% → 86%

  2. 02

    Kill by Madison Pulsipher (set by McKenna Giles)

    Set 5 · UCSD 1-1 UC RIV · UC RIV 19% → 24%

  3. 03

    Kill by Molly McCluskey (set by Marleena Catalan)

    Set 5 · UCSD 2-1 UC RIV · UCSD 76% → 80%

  4. 04

    Kill by Ireland McNees (set by Marleena Catalan)

    Set 5 · UCSD 1-0 UC RIV · UCSD 76% → 81%

  5. 05
    Brynne McGhieKill+4.5%

    Kill by Brynne McGhie (set by Madison Johnson)

    Set 5 · UCSD 4-1 UC RIV · UCSD 86% → 90%

  6. 06
    Ireland McNeesAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Ireland McNees

    Set 2 · UCSD 24-26 UC RIV · UC RIV 7% → 11%

  7. 07
    Madison JohnsonBlock+3.5%

    Zeynep Belgutay stuffed by Madison Johnson

    Set 5 · UCSD 5-1 UC RIV · UCSD 90% → 94%

  8. 08
    Katelyn HernandezAttack error+3.2%

    Attack error by Katelyn Hernandez

    Set 3 · UCSD 17-17 UC RIV · UC RIV 12% → 15%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
522749.30602161031.525.5
514736.19404390031.519.5
512629.2070001000012
58114.5001000014311
55112.33300010031.56.5
5011-1.0003300500000
5001.0003341910003
5215.200210110010.52.5
5000–211700001
4000–001000000
2000–001000000
1000–000000000
Team totals6324147.2656010124931148108
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513538.21100152031.514.5
511632.1561000004213
54314.071121000428
5316.333000001647
5000–2204600000
2148-.375001210001
514123.5650000002115
5002.00016121000001
51011.0007021110001
46213.30800020010.56.5
3000–001520000
3000–100320000
Team totals5322137.2264831244101201196

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 UCSD · UC RIV 6

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 4 UCSDUC RIV 2

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 4 UCSDUC RIV 3

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 6 UCSDUC RIV 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 3 UCSDUC RIV 6

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 6 UCSDUC RIV 2

Bars above the line = UC Riverside leads, below = UC San Diego leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UC San Diego

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%14/21
27%4/15
2
68%13/19
43%10/23
3
64%9/14
66%21/32
4
69%9/13
25%3/12
5
60%9/15
36%5/14
6
60%9/15
18%2/11
All
65%63/97
42%45/107

UC Riverside

SlotSideout %Break %
1
68%13/19
33%6/18
2
33%11/33
19%3/16
3
65%11/17
39%7/18
4
75%9/12
31%4/13
5
69%9/13
47%8/17
6
69%9/13
40%6/15
All
58%62/107
35%34/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

204 rallies

#UCSD-UC RIVSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UC RIVUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.8
21-1UC RIVUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.6
31-2UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.7
42-2UC RIVUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.6
53-2UCSDUCSD×3KillMadison Johnsonset Marleena Catalan+0.7
64-2UCSDUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Jaedyn Houston+0.6
74-3UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+0.5
85-3UC RIVUCSD×3KillMadison Johnsonset Marleena Catalan+0.5
96-3UCSDUCSD×3KillIreland McNees+0.5
107-3UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Andrea Brewer+0.4
117-4UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+0.3
128-4UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+0.3
138-5UCSDUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset McKenna Giles+0.3
148-6UC RIVUC RIVAceUC Riversideaced Ireland McNees+0.6
159-6UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+0.4
169-7UCSDUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset McKenna Giles+0.5
179-8UC RIVUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset Elena Kasavica+0.8
1810-8UC RIVUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+0.6
1910-9UCSDUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset Elena Kasavica+0.6
2011-9UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Marleena Catalan+0.6
2111-10UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.7
2212-10UC RIVUCSD×4Serve errUC Riverside+0.6
2313-10UCSDUCSD×4BlockedAndrea Brewerblk Molly McCluskey, Madison Johnson+0.7
2414-10UCSDUCSD×4Attack errZeynep Belgutay+0.5
2515-10UCSDUCSD×4BlockedAndrea Brewerblk Molly McCluskey, Madison Johnson+0.4
2615-11UCSDUC RIVAttack errMolly McCluskey+0.3
2716-11UC RIVUCSDAttack errAndrea Brewer+0.3
2816-12UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Misu Nguyen+0.3
2917-12UC RIVUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.3
3018-12UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced McKenna Giles+0.3
3119-12UCSDUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie+0.2
3219-13UCSDUC RIVAttack errKatelyn Hernandez+0.1
3320-13UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+0.1
3421-13UCSDUCSDAttack errMadison Pulsipher+0.1
3521-14UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron·
3622-14UC RIVUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Brynne McGhie·
3722-15UCSDUC RIVKillEvelyn Hendrixset Elena Kasavica·
3822-16UC RIVUC RIVBlockedKatelyn Hernandezblk Evelyn Hendrix, Malia Tanksley·
3923-16UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Marleena Catalan+0.1
4024-16UCSDUCSDAceUC San Diego·
4124-17UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica·
4225-17UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan·
Set 2
11-0UCSDUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Marleena Catalan+0.4
21-1UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.4
32-1UC RIVUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.3
42-2UCSDUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset Elena Kasavica+0.4
53-2UC RIVUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.3
64-2UCSDUCSDAceUC San Diegoaced Madison Pulsipher+0.4
74-3UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+0.3
85-3UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Paulina Baillie+0.3
95-4UCSDUC RIVKillZeynep Belgutayset Maya Barron+0.3
105-5UC RIVUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Zeynep Belgutay+0.5
116-5UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.4
126-6UCSDUC RIVAttack errKatelyn Hernandez+0.4
136-7UC RIVUC RIVBlockedKatelyn Hernandezblk Evelyn Hendrix, Malia Tanksley+0.6
147-7UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+0.5
158-7UCSDUCSDBlockedAndrea Brewerblk Brynne McGhie, Lucia Barroso+0.5
168-8UCSDUC RIVKillAndrea Brewerset McKenna Giles+0.5
178-9UC RIVUC RIVAttack errBrynne McGhie+0.7
189-9UC RIVUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Brynne McGhie+0.5
199-10UCSDUC RIVBlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Evelyn Hendrix, Madison Pulsipher+0.6
2010-10UC RIVUCSD×3KillKatelyn Hernandezset Marleena Catalan+0.5
2111-10UCSDUCSD×3Attack errMadison Pulsipher+0.6
2212-10UCSDUCSD×3KillLucia Barrososet Marleena Catalan+0.5
2312-11UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.4
2412-12UC RIVUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+0.7
2513-12UC RIVUCSDBlockedMadison Pulsipherblk Molly McCluskey, Lucia Barroso+0.5
2614-12UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.6
2714-13UCSDUC RIV×3KillMadison Pulsipherset Maya Barron+0.5
2814-14UC RIVUC RIV×3BlockedIreland McNeesblk Zeynep Belgutay, Casi Doll+0.8
2914-15UC RIVUC RIV×3Bad setMarleena Catalan+1.0
3015-15UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+0.7
3115-16UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+0.8
3215-17UC RIVUC RIVAceUC Riverside+1.2
3316-17UC RIVUCSD×4KillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.8
3417-17UCSDUCSD×4KillMadison Johnson+1.0
3518-17UCSDUCSD×4AceUC San Diegoaced Madison Pulsipher+1.0
3619-17UCSDUCSD×4KillBrynne McGhieset Paulina Baillie+0.8
3719-18UCSDUC RIVKillSariah Johnsonset McKenna Giles+0.6
3819-19UC RIVUC RIVAttack errMadison Johnson+1.1
3920-19UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+0.9
4020-20UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+1.0
4121-20UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+1.0
4221-21UCSDUC RIV×3BlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Madison Pulsipher, Evelyn Hendrix+1.1
4321-22UC RIVUC RIV×3KillMadison Pulsipherset Elena Kasavica+1.9
4421-23UC RIVUC RIV×3BlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Zeynep Belgutay, Malia Tanksley+2.2
4522-23UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+1.2
4622-24UCSDUC RIVKillZeynep Belgutayset Elena Kasavica+2.1
4723-24UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+1.2
4824-24UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+3.1
4924-25UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+2.3
5024-26UC RIVUC RIVAttack errIreland McNees+3.8
Set 3
10-1UC RIVUC RIVBad setMarleena Catalan+1.7
21-1UC RIVUCSD×3KillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+1.2
32-1UCSDUCSD×3BlockedMalia Tanksleyblk Madison Johnson, Ireland McNees+1.4
43-1UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Misu Nguyen+1.2
53-2UCSDUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset Elena Kasavica+1.0
64-2UC RIVUCSD×6KillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+1.0
75-2UCSDUCSD×6Attack errMalia Tanksley+1.1
86-2UCSDUCSD×6AceUC San Diegoaced Misu Nguyen+0.9
97-2UCSDUCSD×6KillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+0.7
108-2UCSDUCSD×6AceUC San Diegoaced Juliette D'Eliseo+0.5
119-2UCSDUCSD×6Attack errMalia Tanksley+0.4
129-3UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+0.3
1310-3UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+0.3
1410-4UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+0.3
1511-4UC RIVUCSDBad setCasi Doll+0.3
1611-5UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+0.3
1711-6UC RIVUC RIVKillEvelyn Hendrix+0.5
1812-6UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+0.4
1912-7UCSDUC RIV×4BlockedLucia Barrosoblk Evelyn Hendrix+0.4
2012-8UC RIVUC RIV×4BlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Evelyn Hendrix, Sariah Johnson+0.7
2112-9UC RIVUC RIV×4KillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+1.0
2212-10UC RIVUC RIV×4BlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Malia Tanksley, Evelyn Hendrix+1.4
2313-10UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+1.1
2413-11UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+1.2
2514-11UC RIVUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+1.2
2614-12UCSDUC RIVAttack errMarleena Catalan+1.2
2715-12UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+1.2
2815-13UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+1.2
2916-13UC RIVUCSDAttack errMadison Pulsipher+1.3
3016-14UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+1.3
3117-14UC RIVUCSDAttack errZeynep Belgutay+1.4
3217-15UCSDUC RIV×3Serve errUC San Diego+1.3
3317-16UC RIVUC RIV×3KillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+2.4
3417-17UC RIVUC RIV×3Attack errKatelyn Hernandez+3.2
3518-17UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+2.4
3618-18UCSDUC RIVKillEvelyn Hendrixset Maya Barron+2.7
3719-18UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+2.6
3820-18UCSDUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+3.0
3920-19UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+2.2
4021-19UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+2.5
4122-19UCSDUCSDBlockedMalia Tanksleyblk Ireland McNees, Madison Johnson+2.4
4222-20UCSDUC RIVKillMcKenna Gilesset Elena Kasavica+1.4
4323-20UC RIVUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+1.9
4424-20UCSDUCSD×3Attack errMadison Pulsipher+1.2
4525-20UCSDUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.3
Set 4
10-1UCSDUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset Elena Kasavica+1.0
21-1UC RIVUCSD×3KillLucia Barrososet Marleena Catalan+0.9
32-1UCSDUCSD×3KillIreland McNeesset Jaedyn Houston+1.0
43-1UCSDUCSD×3AceUC San Diegoaced Juliette D'Eliseo+0.9
53-2UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+0.7
64-2UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.7
74-3UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+0.8
85-3UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+0.7
96-3UCSDUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+0.8
106-4UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+0.6
117-4UC RIVUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+0.6
127-5UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+0.7
138-5UC RIVUCSDAttack errMalia Tanksley+0.6
148-6UCSDUC RIVKillSariah Johnsonset Elena Kasavica+0.7
159-6UC RIVUCSDKillLucia Barrososet Marleena Catalan+0.7
169-7UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+0.7
1710-7UC RIVUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.7
1810-8UCSDUC RIV×6Serve errUC San Diego+0.7
1910-9UC RIVUC RIV×6Attack errIreland McNees+1.2
2010-10UC RIVUC RIV×6KillMadison Pulsipherset McKenna Giles+1.5
2110-11UC RIVUC RIV×6KillCasi Dollset Madison Pulsipher+1.8
2210-12UC RIVUC RIV×6Attack errIreland McNees+2.1
2310-13UC RIVUC RIV×6AceUC Riversideaced Paulina Baillie+2.3
2411-13UC RIVUCSDServe errUC Riverside+1.5
2512-13UCSDUCSDAttack errCasi Doll+2.0
2612-14UCSDUC RIVServe errUC San Diego+1.9
2713-14UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+1.6
2813-15UCSDUC RIV×3KillZeynep Belgutayset Maya Barron+2.0
2913-16UC RIVUC RIV×3Attack errKatelyn Hernandez+2.7
3013-17UC RIVUC RIV×3KillCasi Doll+2.7
3114-17UC RIVUCSDAttack errEvelyn Hendrix+1.5
3214-18UCSDUC RIVKillSariah Johnsonset Maya Barron+2.3
3315-18UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+1.6
3415-19UCSDUC RIVKillSariah Johnsonset Elena Kasavica+2.4
3515-20UC RIVUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset Maya Barron+2.6
3616-20UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Paulina Baillie+1.2
3716-21UCSDUC RIVKillMalia Tanksleyset Elena Kasavica+2.0
3816-22UC RIVUC RIVBad setMarleena Catalan+1.8
3917-22UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+0.6
4018-22UCSDUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+1.2
4118-23UCSDUC RIVKillZeynep Belgutayset Elena Kasavica+1.8
4219-23UC RIVUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.7
4319-24UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+1.5
4419-25UC RIVUC RIVBlockedIreland McNeesblk Casi Doll, Zeynep Belgutay+0.2
Set 5
11-0UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Marleena Catalan+4.5
21-1UCSDUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset McKenna Giles+5.2
32-1UC RIVUCSD×6KillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+4.8
43-1UCSDUCSD×6KillMadison Johnsonset Brynne McGhie+5.5
54-1UCSDUCSD×6KillBrynne McGhieset Madison Johnson+4.5
65-1UCSDUCSD×6BlockedZeynep Belgutayblk Madison Johnson+3.5
76-1UCSDUCSD×6Attack errMalia Tanksley+2.5
87-1UCSDUCSD×6AceUC San Diego+1.7
97-2UCSDUC RIVBlockedMolly McCluskeyblk Zeynep Belgutay, Madison Pulsipher+1.0
107-3UC RIVUC RIVAttack errIreland McNees+2.0
118-3UC RIVUCSDKillIreland McNeesset Brynne McGhie+1.9
128-4UCSDUC RIVKillCasi Dollset Maya Barron+1.6
139-4UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+1.9
149-5UCSDUC RIVAttack errIreland McNees+1.5
1510-5UC RIVUCSDKillKatelyn Hernandezset Brynne McGhie+1.9
1610-6UCSDUC RIVKillSariah Johnsonset Maya Barron+1.4
1711-6UC RIVUCSD×3KillKatelyn Hernandezset Marleena Catalan+1.9
1812-6UCSDUCSD×3Attack errSariah Johnson+1.3
1913-6UCSDUCSD×3BlockedSariah Johnsonblk Lucia Barroso, Ireland McNees+0.5
2013-7UCSDUC RIVKillSariah Johnsonset Malia Tanksley+0.1
2113-8UC RIVUC RIVKillMadison Pulsipherset McKenna Giles+0.4
2214-8UC RIVUCSDKillMolly McCluskeyset Marleena Catalan+0.5
2315-8UCSDUCSDKillMadison Johnsonset Marleena Catalan+0.1

Score shown after each rally, UC San Diego first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).