FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeSOUTHLAND

Miami (OH) def. Nicholls 3–0

(25-10, 25-20, 25-9)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MIA OH	25	25	25	3
NICHST	10	20	9	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NICHST above 50 · MIA OH below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Nicholls — set 1, MIA OH 2-3 NICHST. Kill by Harper Holden (set by Isabella Padilla). NICHST win probability 4% → 4%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MIA OH 96.2%3.8% NICHST

Miami (OH) wins

3-0

59.4%

3-1

28.4%

3-2

8.4%

Nicholls wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.0%

3-2

2.3%

MIA OH break %: 49.9% vs this opp
NICHST break %: 36.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Harper HoldenKill+0.6%
Kill by Harper Holden (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 1 · MIA OH 2-3 NICHST · NICHST 4% → 4%
02
Lauren CoyneAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Lauren Coyne
Set 1 · MIA OH 2-2 NICHST · NICHST 3% → 4%
03
Raegan LantzKill+0.5%
Kill by Raegan Lantz (set by Holland Van Deusen)
Set 1 · MIA OH 4-3 NICHST · MIA OH 96% → 96%
04
Zahahrah Edwards-WyllieAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie
Set 1 · MIA OH 6-4 NICHST · MIA OH 96% → 97%
05
Kera ArringtonKill+0.4%
Kill by Kera Arrington (set by Isabella Padilla)
Set 1 · MIA OH 4-4 NICHST · NICHST 4% → 4%
06
Molly CreechKill+0.4%
Kill by Molly Creech (set by Holland Van Deusen)
Set 1 · MIA OH 3-3 NICHST · MIA OH 96% → 96%
07
NICHST serverService error+0.4%
Nicholls service error
Set 1 · MIA OH 5-4 NICHST · MIA OH 96% → 96%
08
Lauren CoyneKill+0.4%
Kill by Lauren Coyne (set by Rachel Morgan)
Set 1 · MIA OH 2-0 NICHST · MIA OH 97% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Miami (OH)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Molly CreechOH	3	11	0	34	.324	0	1	3	5	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
17Lauren CoyneOPP	3	9	1	17	.471	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	10.5
1Raegan LantzOH	3	6	0	8	.750	1	0	0	3	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
13Grace KreutzOH	3	4	0	12	.333	2	0	1	15	0	0	0	0	4
18Holland Van DeusenS	3	0	0	0	–	21	2	1	7	0	0	0	0	2
15Lydia MichelinMB	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	1
10Madison BrownS	3	0	0	1	.000	10	2	0	9	0	0	0	0	2
9Rachel MorganL/DS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	4	2	1	14	1	0	0	0	2
7Chelsea WilliamsOH	2	5	0	9	.556	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	6
4Sophia StallworthOH	2	1	0	7	.143	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
19Kendall BosseMB	1	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Sydney WallerOPP	1	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
5Ria FurutaL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11Reesa ZimmermanOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	3	99	.374	38	8	6	56	3	3	8	7	75

Nichollshome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
18Kera ArringtonOH	3	8	9	30	-.033	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8
16Mckenzie MitchellOH	3	7	3	21	.190	1	1	1	6	2	0	0	8
5Maya SchirmerMB	3	1	0	6	.167	0	0	0	2	1	1	1	2
8Isabella PadillaS	3	0	0	6	.000	20	1	1	12	0	0	0	1
2Ava-Claire CalaisS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
15Harper HoldenMB	1	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
11Natalia NavarroL/DS	3	1	0	4	.250	5	0	0	12	2	0	0	1
1Lizzie KraftDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
19Madison SmithOH	2	5	5	18	.000	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	6
14Beryn HylandOH	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Karina SmithL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
3Zahahrah Edwards-WyllieOH	1	1	4	10	-.300	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
9Sydney ValentineOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team totals		27	23	109	.037	26	3	3	49	8	1	1	39

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 15 MIA OH · NICHST 4

Set 1

25-10

Longest run 6 MIA OHNICHST 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 MIA OHNICHST 4

Set 3

25-9

Longest run 15 MIA OHNICHST 2

Bars above the line = Nicholls leads, below = Miami (OH) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Miami (OH)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	50%5/10
2	60%6/10	25%2/8
3	100%5/5	80%20/25
4	100%4/4	67%8/12
5	67%4/6	60%6/10
6	67%4/6	50%4/8
All	73%30/41	62%45/73

Nicholls

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	14%1/7
2	19%5/26	42%5/12
3	44%4/9	29%2/7
4	40%4/10	0%0/4
5	50%4/8	20%1/5
6	40%4/10	33%2/6
All	38%28/73	27%11/41

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

114 rallies

Rally log

#	MIA OH-NICHST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.3
2	2-0	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Rachel Morgan	+0.4
3	2-1	MIA OH	NICHST×3	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.3
4	2-2	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Lauren Coyne		+0.5
5	2-3	NICHST	NICHST×3	Kill	Harper Holden	set Isabella Padilla	+0.6
6	3-3	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.4
7	4-3	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Raegan Lantz	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.5
8	4-4	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.4
9	5-4	NICHST	MIA OH×6	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.4
10	6-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×6	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+0.4
11	7-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×6	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+0.4
12	8-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×6	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	blk Molly Creech, Raegan Lantz	+0.3
13	9-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×6	Bad set	Isabella Padilla		+0.2
14	10-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×6	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Mckenzie Mitchell	+0.2
15	10-5	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
16	11-5	NICHST	MIA OH×4	Kill	Raegan Lantz	set Madison Brown	+0.1
17	12-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie	blk Chelsea Williams	+0.1
18	13-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Rachel Morgan	+0.1
19	14-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Rachel Morgan	+0.0
20	14-6	MIA OH	NICHST	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.0
21	15-6	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Raegan Lantz	set Madison Brown	+0.0
22	15-7	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Lydia Michelin		+0.0
23	16-7	NICHST	MIA OH×4	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
24	17-7	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Natalia Navarro	+0.0
25	18-7	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Attack err	Zahahrah Edwards-Wyllie		+0.0
26	19-7	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
27	19-8	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
28	20-8	NICHST	MIA OH	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.0
29	20-9	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
30	21-9	NICHST	MIA OH×4	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.0
31	22-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
32	23-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.0
33	24-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell		+0.0
34	24-10	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Maya Schirmer	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
35	25-10	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Natalia Navarro	+0.3
2	1-1	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Grace Kreutz	+0.2
3	2-1	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Grace Kreutz	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.3
4	2-2	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.2
5	3-2	NICHST	MIA OH	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.2
6	3-3	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Natalia Navarro	+0.3
7	4-3	NICHST	MIA OH×4	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.2
8	5-3	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Attack err	Madison Smith	blk Raegan Lantz	+0.3
9	6-3	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Maya Schirmer	+0.2
10	7-3	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+0.2
11	7-4	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
12	8-4	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Grace Kreutz	+0.1
13	9-4	MIA OH	MIA OH	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Natalia Navarro	+0.1
14	9-5	MIA OH	NICHST	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.1
15	10-5	NICHST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Sophia Stallworth	set Madison Brown	+0.1
16	11-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Madison Smith		+0.1
17	12-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Kendall Bosse	set Madison Brown	+0.1
18	12-6	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
19	13-6	NICHST	MIA OH	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.1
20	13-7	MIA OH	NICHST	Attack err	Rachel Morgan		+0.0
21	14-7	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Kendall Bosse	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
22	14-8	MIA OH	NICHST×3	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
23	14-9	NICHST	NICHST×3	Ace	NICHST server	aced Rachel Morgan	+0.1
24	14-10	NICHST	NICHST×3	Attack err	Kendall Bosse	blk Maya Schirmer	+0.1
25	15-10	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
26	15-11	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.1
27	16-11	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
28	16-12	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Natalia Navarro	+0.1
29	17-12	NICHST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+0.1
30	18-12	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Raegan Lantz		+0.1
31	19-12	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Madison Smith		+0.1
32	19-13	MIA OH	NICHST	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.0
33	19-14	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	NICHST server	aced Team	+0.1
34	20-14	NICHST	MIA OH	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell		+0.1
35	21-14	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Madison Smith		+0.0
36	21-15	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
37	21-16	NICHST	NICHST	Ace	NICHST server	aced Chelsea Williams	+0.1
38	22-16	NICHST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+0.1
39	23-16	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Mckenzie Mitchell	+0.0
40	24-16	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Lauren Coyne, Kendall Bosse	+0.0
41	24-17	MIA OH	NICHST×4	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.0
42	24-18	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
43	24-19	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
44	24-20	NICHST	NICHST×4	Kill	Kera Arrington	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
45	25-20	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Grace Kreutz	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
2	1-1	MIA OH	NICHST	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.1
3	2-1	NICHST	MIA OH×15	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
4	3-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Attack err	Kera Arrington	blk Lauren Coyne, Raegan Lantz	+0.1
5	4-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Kera Arrington	+0.1
6	5-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Kill	Lauren Coyne		+0.1
7	6-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Kill	Grace Kreutz	set Rachel Morgan	+0.1
8	7-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Attack err	Mckenzie Mitchell		+0.0
9	8-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
10	9-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
11	10-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
12	11-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.0
13	12-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Attack err	Madison Smith	blk Lauren Coyne, Raegan Lantz	+0.0
14	13-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Attack err	Kera Arrington		+0.0
15	14-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Karina Smith	+0.0
16	15-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Kill	Grace Kreutz	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
17	16-1	MIA OH	MIA OH×15	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
18	16-2	MIA OH	NICHST	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.0
19	17-2	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Raegan Lantz	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
20	17-3	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Natalia Navarro	+0.0
21	18-3	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Sydney Waller	set Raegan Lantz	+0.0
22	18-4	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Natalia Navarro	+0.0
23	18-5	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
24	19-5	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Raegan Lantz	set Madison Brown	+0.0
25	20-5	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Beryn Hyland	blk Lydia Michelin	+0.0
26	20-6	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Madison Smith	set Mckenzie Mitchell	+0.0
27	20-7	NICHST	NICHST	Kill	Beryn Hyland	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
28	21-7	NICHST	MIA OH	Kill	Sydney Waller	set Madison Brown	+0.0
29	21-8	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Mckenzie Mitchell	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
30	22-8	NICHST	MIA OH	Serve err	NICHST server		+0.0
31	22-9	MIA OH	NICHST	Kill	Sydney Valentine	set Isabella Padilla	+0.0
32	23-9	NICHST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
33	24-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Sydney Valentine		+0.0
34	25-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Team	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Miami (OH) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.