FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayMAC

3:0

HomeSWAC

Miami (OH) def. Alabama St. 3–0

(25-19, 25-20, 25-10)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MIA OH	25	25	25	3
ALA ST	19	20	10	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ALA ST above 50 · MIA OH below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to Alabama St. — set 1, MIA OH 11-14 ALA ST. Kill by Alexis Williams (set by Kamrynn Clay). ALA ST win probability 3% → 4%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MIA OH 98.6%1.4% ALA ST

Miami (OH) wins

3-0

70.8%

3-1

23.1%

3-2

4.7%

Alabama St. wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.9%

MIA OH break %: 52.6% vs this opp
ALA ST break %: 35.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alexis WilliamsKill+0.7%
Kill by Alexis Williams (set by Kamrynn Clay)
Set 1 · MIA OH 11-14 ALA ST · ALA ST 3% → 4%
02
Chelsea WilliamsAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Chelsea Williams
Set 1 · MIA OH 11-13 ALA ST · ALA ST 2% → 3%
03
Denver WatkinsKill+0.6%
Kill by Denver Watkins (set by Kamrynn Clay)
Set 1 · MIA OH 8-11 ALA ST · ALA ST 3% → 3%
04
Molly CreechKill+0.5%
Kill by Molly Creech (set by Holland Van Deusen)
Set 1 · MIA OH 13-14 ALA ST · MIA OH 97% → 97%
05
MIA OH serverAce+0.5%
Miami (OH) ace on Team
Set 1 · MIA OH 14-14 ALA ST · MIA OH 97% → 98%
06
Lydia MichelinAttack error+0.5%
Lydia Michelin stuffed by Lyric Edwards
Set 1 · MIA OH 8-10 ALA ST · ALA ST 2% → 3%
07
Chelsea WilliamsKill+0.4%
Kill by Chelsea Williams (set by Holland Van Deusen)
Set 1 · MIA OH 10-11 ALA ST · MIA OH 97% → 98%
08
Lauren CoyneKill+0.4%
Kill by Lauren Coyne (set by Holland Van Deusen)
Set 1 · MIA OH 15-14 ALA ST · MIA OH 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Miami (OH)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Molly CreechOH	3	12	4	40	.200	0	0	2	6	0	2	1	2.5	14.5
17Lauren CoyneOPP	3	11	1	17	.588	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
13Grace KreutzOH	3	1	0	7	.143	1	4	1	11	0	1	0	1	6
1Raegan LantzOH	3	2	0	4	.500	0	1	0	1	0	0	4	2	5
18Holland Van DeusenS	3	2	0	2	1.000	19	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	3
15Lydia MichelinMB	2	3	1	4	.500	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
7Chelsea WilliamsOH	3	10	2	21	.381	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10
4Sophia StallworthOH	3	3	0	10	.300	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	5
10Madison BrownS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	2	0	6	0	0	0	0	2
9Rachel MorganL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	5	1	1	16	0	0	0	0	1
5Ria FurutaL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Kendall BosseMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	8	108	.333	42	9	4	49	1	4	8	8	75

Alabama St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
13Mikalah DavisOH	3	9	7	32	.063	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	9
22Kaylen HinesMB	3	8	4	23	.174	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8
12Alexis WilliamsMB	3	8	1	14	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8
14Kamrynn ClayS	3	2	0	3	.667	29	1	0	9	0	0	0	3
5Lyric EdwardsMB	3	1	2	4	-.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2
2Denver WatkinsOH	1	1	0	4	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
21Amaya RobinsonOH	3	5	3	21	.095	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
11Julia SlaughterS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	4	1	0	0	0
9Mirra RiddleL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	1	15	1	0	0	0
3Emani GreenDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0
8Taylor WilliamsOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0
15Nadiyyah NorthernMB	2	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Aliyah PoolerOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
16Makeda EdwardsOH	1	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		35	19	108	.148	33	1	3	49	9	1	1	49

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 MIA OH · ALA ST 5

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 MIA OHALA ST 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 MIA OHALA ST 5

Set 3

25-10

Longest run 8 MIA OHALA ST 2

Bars above the line = Alabama St. leads, below = Miami (OH) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Miami (OH)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%6/10	60%6/10
2	86%6/7	70%14/20
3	56%5/9	55%6/11
4	56%5/9	71%12/17
5	100%5/5	50%5/10
6	36%4/11	20%1/5
All	61%31/51	60%44/73

Alabama St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	30%6/20	58%7/12
2	45%5/11	25%2/8
3	38%5/13	44%4/9
4	36%5/14	0%0/5
5	63%5/8	44%4/9
6	43%3/7	38%3/8
All	40%29/73	39%20/51

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

124 rallies

Rally log

#	MIA OH-ALA ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ALA ST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
2	2-0	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Mikalah Davis	+0.2
3	3-0	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Mikalah Davis	+0.1
4	3-1	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
5	4-1	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Lydia Michelin	set Grace Kreutz	+0.1
6	4-2	MIA OH	ALA ST×4	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.1
7	4-3	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Attack err	Molly Creech		+0.2
8	4-4	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Mirra Riddle	+0.2
9	4-5	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Attack err	Lauren Coyne		+0.3
10	5-5	ALA ST	MIA OH	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.2
11	5-6	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.3
12	6-6	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Sophia Stallworth	set Madison Brown	+0.2
13	7-6	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Mikalah Davis	blk Sophia Stallworth, Raegan Lantz	+0.3
14	7-7	MIA OH	ALA ST	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.2
15	8-7	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Chelsea Williams	+0.2
16	8-8	MIA OH	ALA ST×4	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.2
17	8-9	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Attack err	Chelsea Williams		+0.4
18	8-10	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Attack err	Lydia Michelin	blk Lyric Edwards	+0.5
19	8-11	ALA ST	ALA ST×4	Kill	Denver Watkins	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.6
20	9-11	ALA ST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Rachel Morgan	+0.4
21	10-11	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.4
22	11-11	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Rachel Morgan	+0.4
23	11-12	MIA OH	ALA ST×3	Kill	Amaya Robinson	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.4
24	11-13	ALA ST	ALA ST×3	Attack err	Chelsea Williams		+0.6
25	11-14	ALA ST	ALA ST×3	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.7
26	12-14	ALA ST	MIA OH×4	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.4
27	13-14	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.5
28	14-14	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Team	+0.5
29	15-14	MIA OH	MIA OH×4	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.4
30	15-15	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Amaya Robinson	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.4
31	16-15	ALA ST	MIA OH	Attack err	Alexis Williams		+0.3
32	17-15	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Mikalah Davis	blk Grace Kreutz	+0.4
33	17-16	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.3
34	18-16	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.3
35	18-17	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.3
36	19-17	ALA ST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Sophia Stallworth	set Madison Brown	+0.3
37	20-17	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Mikalah Davis		+0.3
38	21-17	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+0.2
39	21-18	MIA OH	ALA ST	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.1
40	22-18	ALA ST	MIA OH	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.2
41	23-18	MIA OH	MIA OH	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Team	+0.1
42	23-19	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
43	24-19	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+0.1
44	25-19	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Rachel Morgan	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Mikalah Davis		+0.1
2	1-1	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
3	1-2	ALA ST	ALA ST	Kill	Amaya Robinson	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.2
4	2-2	ALA ST	MIA OH	Serve err	ALA ST server		+0.1
5	2-3	MIA OH	ALA ST	Serve err	MIA OH server		+0.1
6	3-3	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
7	3-4	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
8	4-4	ALA ST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
9	5-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Raegan Lantz	set Madison Brown	+0.1
10	6-4	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+0.1
11	6-5	MIA OH	ALA ST	Attack err	Molly Creech		+0.1
12	7-5	ALA ST	MIA OH	Attack err	Kaylen Hines		+0.1
13	7-6	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Julia Slaughter	+0.1
14	8-6	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+0.1
15	8-7	MIA OH	ALA ST×5	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Julia Slaughter	+0.1
16	8-8	ALA ST	ALA ST×5	Bad set	Madison Brown		+0.2
17	8-9	ALA ST	ALA ST×5	Attack err	Molly Creech		+0.2
18	8-10	ALA ST	ALA ST×5	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.3
19	8-11	ALA ST	ALA ST×5	Ace	ALA ST server	aced Team	+0.3
20	9-11	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+0.2
21	10-11	MIA OH	MIA OH	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Mirra Riddle	+0.3
22	10-12	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Lyric Edwards	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.3
23	11-12	ALA ST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Rachel Morgan	+0.2
24	12-12	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.3
25	13-12	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.2
26	13-13	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Amaya Robinson	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.2
27	14-13	ALA ST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Holland Van Deusen	set Rachel Morgan	+0.2
28	15-13	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Mikalah Davis	+0.2
29	16-13	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
30	16-14	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
31	17-14	ALA ST	MIA OH×5	Kill	Holland Van Deusen	set Lauren Coyne	+0.1
32	18-14	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Attack err	Kaylen Hines	blk Raegan Lantz, Molly Creech	+0.1
33	19-14	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Julia Slaughter	+0.1
34	20-14	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Attack err	Amaya Robinson		+0.0
35	21-14	MIA OH	MIA OH×5	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+0.0
36	21-15	MIA OH	ALA ST×5	Kill	Kamrynn Clay	set Molly Creech	+0.0
37	21-16	ALA ST	ALA ST×5	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
38	21-17	ALA ST	ALA ST×5	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
39	21-18	ALA ST	ALA ST×5	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
40	21-19	ALA ST	ALA ST×5	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.2
41	22-19	ALA ST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+0.2
42	23-19	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Mikalah Davis	blk Sophia Stallworth	+0.1
43	24-19	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Kaylen Hines		+0.0
44	24-20	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
45	25-20	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ALA ST	ALA ST	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
2	1-1	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
3	1-2	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
4	1-3	ALA ST	ALA ST	Kill	Amaya Robinson	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
5	2-3	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
6	3-3	MIA OH	MIA OH	Attack err	Lyric Edwards	blk Molly Creech	+0.1
7	3-4	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Alexis Williams	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.1
8	3-5	ALA ST	ALA ST	Attack err	Molly Creech		+0.1
9	4-5	ALA ST	MIA OH×7	Kill	Molly Creech	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.1
10	5-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×7	Attack err	Kaylen Hines		+0.1
11	6-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×7	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Taylor Williams	+0.1
12	7-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×7	Attack err	Amaya Robinson	blk Raegan Lantz, Sophia Stallworth	+0.1
13	8-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×7	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+0.0
14	9-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×7	Kill	Sophia Stallworth	set Madison Brown	+0.0
15	10-5	MIA OH	MIA OH×7	Kill	Raegan Lantz		+0.0
16	10-6	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
17	11-6	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Molly Creech	set Madison Brown	+0.0
18	11-7	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Kaylen Hines	set Mirra Riddle	+0.0
19	12-7	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Madison Brown	+0.0
20	12-8	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Kamrynn Clay	set Emani Green	+0.0
21	13-8	ALA ST	MIA OH	Kill	Lydia Michelin	set Madison Brown	+0.0
22	14-8	MIA OH	MIA OH	Kill	Chelsea Williams	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
23	14-9	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Mikalah Davis	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
24	15-9	ALA ST	MIA OH×8	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
25	16-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×8	Attack err	Mikalah Davis		+0.0
26	17-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×8	Attack err	Lyric Edwards	blk Molly Creech	+0.0
27	18-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×8	Attack err	Mikalah Davis		+0.0
28	19-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×8	Kill	Lauren Coyne	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
29	20-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×8	Attack err	Makeda Edwards		+0.0
30	21-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×8	Ace	MIA OH server	aced Team	+0.0
31	22-9	MIA OH	MIA OH×8	Attack err	Makeda Edwards		+0.0
32	22-10	MIA OH	ALA ST	Kill	Makeda Edwards	set Kamrynn Clay	+0.0
33	23-10	ALA ST	MIA OH×3	Kill	Lydia Michelin	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
34	24-10	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Kill	Grace Kreutz	set Holland Van Deusen	+0.0
35	25-10	MIA OH	MIA OH×3	Attack err	Amaya Robinson	blk Lauren Coyne, Raegan Lantz	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Miami (OH) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.