Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ACCNX

California def. Virginia 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: California 88.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 8:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

California beat visiting Virginia 3-1 (25-21, 25-22, 20-25, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. California's Abby Zimmerman led with 12 kills.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
UVA212225231
CAL252520253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

California built it on runs.

The biggest single-rally swing was 3.9 points, and Virginia's high was 15% in Set 1. The numbers below are where it was won. RallyIQ gave California 88% before first serve.

VirginiaCalifornia
  • Longest run+2
    46

    6 straight California points in the first set turned a 4–6 deficit into a 10–6 lead. That set ended 25–21.

California above 50Virginia belowMax swing 3.9%

VirginiaCalifornia

Hitting
Virginia .216·California .219
Aces
Virginia 2·California 4
Serve err
Virginia 17·California 19
Blocks
Virginia 8·California 82 BS · 12 BA vs 1 BS · 14 BA
Digs
Virginia 63·California 63

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

California above 50 · Virginia below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.9% CALrally 186 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.9% to California — set 4, UVA 23-25 CAL. Kill by Anna Flores (set by Grace Agolli). CAL win probability 96% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UVA 8.0%92.0% CAL

Virginia wins

3-0
1.0%
3-1
2.4%
3-2
4.6%

California wins

3-0
48.2%
3-1
31.2%
3-2
12.6%
UVA break %
35.2% vs this opp
CAL break %
45.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Anna FloresKill+3.9%

    Kill by Anna Flores (set by Grace Agolli)

    Set 4 · UVA 23-25 CAL · CAL 96% → 100%

  2. 02
    VirginiaService error+3.2%

    Virginia service error

    Set 4 · UVA 22-24 CAL · CAL 95% → 98%

  3. 03
    Reese WuebkerKill+2.9%

    Kill by Reese Wuebker (set by Hannah Scott)

    Set 4 · UVA 16-16 CAL · UVA 7% → 10%

  4. 04
    Lauryn BowieKill+2.9%

    Kill by Lauryn Bowie (set by Hannah Scott)

    Set 4 · UVA 22-23 CAL · UVA 2% → 5%

  5. 05
    VirginiaAce+2.7%

    Virginia ace on Sophia Johnson

    Set 4 · UVA 12-11 CAL · UVA 9% → 12%

  6. 06
    Ashley LiKill+2.7%

    Kill by Ashley Li (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 4 · UVA 16-18 CAL · CAL 92% → 95%

  7. 07
    Cari BohmKill+2.5%

    Kill by Cari Bohm (set by Anna Flores)

    Set 4 · UVA 13-14 CAL · CAL 90% → 92%

  8. 08
    Anna FloresAttack error+2.4%

    Attack error by Anna Flores

    Set 2 · UVA 20-19 CAL · UVA 7% → 10%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412228.35710070031.513.5
410847.0431154100011
49317.3531002002110
45311.182004501649
46113.385000001017
4106.1672701700001
41011.000200730001
4000–002400000
3000–1011100000
3000–702900000
25216.18800000010.55.5
2000–312500001
1000–200200000
Team totals4919139.21645217634212891
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412630.20000416004214
411219.47410210132.513.5
49429.17200210010.59.5
45017.294000000427
4427.28640031200215
4000–000400000
411644.1142338100014
14Elise LauL/DS
4000–012200001
4000–003600000
4000–5001310000
Team totals5220146.21948419632114895

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 UVA · CAL 6

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 2 UVACAL 6

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 2 UVACAL 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 UVACAL 3

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 3 UVACAL 3

Bars above the line = California leads, below = Virginia leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Virginia

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
13%1/8
2
100%9/9
50%9/18
3
60%9/15
36%5/14
4
70%7/10
20%2/10
5
39%7/18
30%3/10
6
100%6/6
22%2/9
All
67%47/70
32%22/69

California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%9/13
11%1/9
2
53%9/17
18%2/11
3
67%8/12
36%5/14
4
80%8/10
20%2/10
5
70%7/10
56%9/16
6
86%6/7
40%4/10
All
68%47/69
33%23/70

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

186 rallies

#UVA-CALSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CALUVAKillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+1.0
21-1UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.9
32-1CALUVAServe errCalifornia+1.0
43-1UVAUVAAceVirginiaaced Grace Agolli+1.6
53-2UVACALServe errVirginia+1.0
63-3CALCALAttack errBecca Wight+1.4
74-3CALUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Zoey Dood+1.1
84-4UVACALAttack errBecca Wight+0.9
95-4CALUVAKillTeagan Hogan+1.1
106-4UVAUVAKillBecca Wightset Ruby McDermott+1.7
116-5UVACAL×6KillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.1
126-6CALCAL×6AceCaliforniaaced Reese Wuebker+1.5
136-7CALCAL×6KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.4
146-8CALCAL×6KillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.3
156-9CALCAL×6KillAnna Floresset Sophia Johnson+1.1
166-10CALCAL×6Serve errCalifornia+0.9
177-10CALUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+0.6
187-11UVACALServe errVirginia+0.6
198-11CALUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+0.6
208-12UVACALBad setMeredith Reeg+0.6
219-12CALUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+0.6
229-13UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.6
2310-13CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.6
2411-13UVAUVABlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Ella Brodner, Emily Fowler+1.1
2511-14UVACALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.8
2611-15CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Sawyer Thomsen+1.0
2712-15CALUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Zoey Dood+0.6
2812-16UVACALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.7
2913-16CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.6
3013-17UVACALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.7
3113-18CALCALAttack errReese Wuebker+0.7
3214-18CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.4
3314-19UVACALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.5
3415-19CALUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Teagan Hogan+0.3
3515-20UVACALServe errVirginia+0.5
3616-20CALUVAKillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+0.3
3717-20UVAUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+0.8
3817-21UVACALServe errVirginia+0.7
3918-21CALUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+0.5
4018-22UVACALServe errVirginia+0.7
4119-22CALUVAKillElla Brodnerset Zoey Dood+0.4
4219-23UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.7
4320-23CALUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Ruby McDermott+0.3
4420-24UVACALServe errVirginia+0.6
4521-24CALUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Zoey Dood+0.2
4621-25UVACALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.4
Set 2
10-1UVACALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.5
21-1CALUVAKillElla Brodnerset Teagan Hogan+0.6
31-2UVACALBlockedElla Brodnerblk Abby Zimmerman, Sawyer Thomsen+0.6
42-2CALUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+0.6
52-3UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.6
63-3CALUVAKillBecca Wightset Olivia Siskin+0.6
73-4UVACALServe errVirginia+0.6
84-4CALUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Olivia Siskin+0.7
94-5UVACALServe errVirginia+0.6
105-5CALUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Olivia Siskin+0.7
116-5UVAUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+1.1
126-6UVACALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.7
137-6CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.8
147-7UVACALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.7
157-8CALCALKillGrace Agolli+1.0
168-8CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.8
179-8UVAUVABlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Ella Brodner, Emily Fowler+1.2
189-9UVACALServe errVirginia+0.8
1910-9CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.9
2010-10UVACALServe errVirginia+0.8
2111-10CALUVAAttack errGrace Agolli+1.0
2212-10UVAUVABlockedGrace Agolliblk Emily Fowler, Becca Wight+1.5
2312-11UVACAL×4KillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.9
2412-12CALCAL×4KillAnna Floresset Sophia Johnson+1.4
2512-13CALCAL×4BlockedEmily Fowlerblk Cari Bohm, Ashley Li+1.3
2612-14CALCAL×4AceCaliforniaaced Teagan Hogan+1.1
2713-14CALUVAKillBecca Wightset Olivia Siskin+0.8
2813-15UVACALServe errVirginia+0.8
2914-15CALUVAKillCaroline Langset Olivia Siskin+0.8
3014-16CAL
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.8
3115-16CALUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+0.8
3215-17UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.9
3316-17CALUVAAttack errReese Wuebker+0.9
3417-17UVAUVABlockedAbby Zimmermanblk Ella Brodner, Emily Fowler+1.6
3517-18UVACALAttack errReese Wuebker+1.1
3618-18CALUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+1.2
3718-19UVACALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+1.2
3819-19CALUVAServe errCalifornia+1.3
3920-19UVAUVAAttack errAnna Flores+2.4
4020-20UVACAL×3Serve errVirginia+1.5
4120-21CALCAL×3AceCaliforniaaced Teagan Hogan+2.3
4220-22CALCAL×3BlockedReese Wuebkerblk Cari Bohm, Anna Flores+2.0
4321-22CALUVAKillBecca Wightset Olivia Siskin+1.1
4421-23UVACALServe errVirginia+1.5
4522-23CALUVAKillBecca Wightset Olivia Siskin+1.1
4622-24UVACALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.7
4722-25CALCALKillAbby Zimmermanset Sophia Johnson+1.1
Set 3
11-0CALUVAKillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+0.3
21-1UVACALServe errVirginia+0.3
32-1CALUVAAttack errGrace Agolli+0.3
43-1UVAUVABlockedGrace Agolliblk Emily Fowler, Lauryn Bowie+0.5
53-2UVACALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.3
64-2CALUVA×3KillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+0.4
75-2UVAUVA×3KillElla Brodnerset Reese Wuebker+0.6
86-2UVAUVA×3KillElla Brodnerset Katie Barrier+0.6
96-3UVACALBad setHannah Scott+0.3
107-3CALUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+0.4
118-3UVAUVAKillHannah Scottset Anna Flores+0.6
128-4UVACALAttack errReese Wuebker+0.3
138-5CALCALBlockedReese Wuebkerblk Cari Bohm, Anna Flores+0.5
149-5CALUVA×3Attack errAshley Li+0.5
1510-5UVAUVA×3Attack errAshley Li+0.6
1611-5UVAUVA×3Attack errAshley Li+0.6
1711-6UVACALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.3
1812-6CALUVAAttack errAbby Zimmerman+0.4
1913-6UVAUVAAttack errSawyer Thomsen+0.5
2013-7UVACALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+0.2
2114-7CALUVAKillCaroline Langset Hannah Scott+0.4
2214-8UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+0.2
2315-8CALUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+0.4
2415-9UVACALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.2
2515-10CALCALBlockedEmily Fowlerblk Cari Bohm, Abby Zimmerman+0.4
2616-10CALUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+0.4
2716-11UVACALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.3
2816-12CALCALKillGrace Agolliset Sophia Johnson+0.5
2917-12CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.5
3017-13UVACALKillGrace Agolliset Anna Flores+0.3
3118-13CALUVAKillEmily Fowlerset Hannah Scott+0.5
3218-14UVACALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+0.3
3319-14CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.5
3419-15UVACALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+0.3
3519-16CALCALBlockedReese Wuebkerblk Sawyer Thomsen, Abby Zimmerman+0.6
3620-16CALUVA×4KillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+0.6
3721-16UVAUVA×4BlockedSawyer Thomsenblk Caroline Lang+0.7
3822-16UVAUVA×4Bad setAnna Flores+0.4
3923-16UVAUVA×4Attack errAbby Zimmerman+0.2
4023-17UVACALServe errVirginia·
4124-17CALUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+0.1
4224-18UVACAL×3KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores·
4324-19CALCAL×3Attack errLauryn Bowie·
4424-20CALCAL×3KillGrace Agolli+0.1
4525-20CALUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Ella Brodner+0.2
Set 4
10-1UVACALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.0
20-2CALCALBlockedReese Wuebkerblk Abby Zimmerman, Sawyer Thomsen+1.4
31-2CALUVA×3Serve errCalifornia+1.0
42-2UVAUVA×3KillCaroline Lang+1.7
53-2UVAUVA×3KillElla Brodnerset Lauryn Bowie+1.9
63-3UVACALServe errVirginia+1.2
74-3CALUVAServe errCalifornia+1.4
85-3UVAUVAAttack errGrace Agolli+2.2
95-4UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.4
106-4CALUVABlockedGrace Agolliblk Emily Fowler, Lauryn Bowie+1.6
116-5UVACALKillGrace Agolliset Sophia Johnson+1.4
126-6CALCALAttack errElla Brodner+2.0
137-6CALUVABlockedAnna Floresblk Emily Fowler+1.6
147-7UVACAL×3Attack errReese Wuebker+1.4
157-8CALCAL×3AceCaliforniaaced Teagan Hogan+2.0
167-9CALCAL×3KillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.7
178-9CALUVAServe errCalifornia+1.2
188-10UVACALKillAshley Liset Anna Flores+1.2
199-10CALUVAServe errCalifornia+1.3
209-11UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.2
2110-11CALUVA×3Serve errCalifornia+1.3
2211-11UVAUVA×3KillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+2.3
2312-11UVAUVA×3AceVirginiaaced Sophia Johnson+2.7
2412-12UVACALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.7
2513-12CALUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+2.0
2613-13UVACALAttack errLauryn Bowie+1.8
2713-14CALCALKillCari Bohmset Anna Flores+2.5
2814-14CALUVAServe errCalifornia+1.9
2914-15UVACALKillAnna Floresset Grace Agolli+1.8
3014-16CALCALAttack errEmily Fowler+2.4
3115-16CALUVAServe errCalifornia+1.6
3216-16UVAUVAKillReese Wuebkerset Hannah Scott+2.9
3316-17UVACAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.0
3416-18CALCAL×3KillAshley Liset Anna Flores+2.7
3516-19CALCAL×3KillSawyer Thomsen+2.1
3617-19CALUVAAttack errAshley Li+1.2
3717-20UVACALKillSawyer Thomsenset Anna Flores+1.5
3818-20CALUVAServe errCalifornia+1.2
3918-21UVACALKillAbby Zimmermanset Anna Flores+1.5
4018-22CALCALAttack errLauryn Bowie+1.4
4119-22CALUVAServe errCalifornia+0.6
4220-22UVAUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+1.6
4320-23UVACALBlockedCaroline Langblk Sawyer Thomsen+1.7
4421-23CALUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+1.0
4522-23UVAUVAKillLauryn Bowieset Hannah Scott+2.9
4622-24UVACALServe errVirginia+3.2
4723-24CALUVAKillElla Brodnerset Hannah Scott+1.8
4823-25UVACALKillAnna Floresset Grace Agolli+3.9

Score shown after each rally, Virginia first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).