FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeWCC

Southern California def. San Diego 3–0

(25-23, 25-13, 25-21)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
USC	25	25	25	3
USD	23	13	21	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

USD above 50 · USC below

Biggest swing: 7.0% to Southern California — set 1, USC 25-23 USD. Kill by London Wijay (set by Abigail Mullen). USD win probability 35% → 28%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

USC 55.0%45.0% USD

Southern California wins

3-0

14.7%

3-1

20.8%

3-2

19.4%

San Diego wins

3-0

10.5%

3-1

16.7%

3-2

17.8%

USC break %: 42.6% vs this opp
USD break %: 41.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
London WijayKill+7.0%
Kill by London Wijay (set by Abigail Mullen)
Set 1 · USC 25-23 USD · USC 65% → 72%
02
Nemo BeachKill+4.1%
Kill by Nemo Beach (set by Kylie Munday)
Set 1 · USC 24-23 USD · USD 31% → 35%
03
Mia TvrdyKill+3.3%
Kill by Mia Tvrdy (set by Lilli Etter)
Set 1 · USC 16-13 USD · USC 61% → 64%
04
London WijayKill+3.2%
Kill by London Wijay (set by Lilli Etter)
Set 1 · USC 23-20 USD · USC 66% → 69%
05
Kierstyn BartonAttack error+3.1%
Kierstyn Barton stuffed by Mia Tvrdy
Set 2 · USC 13-11 USD · USC 75% → 78%
06
Kierstyn BartonKill+3.0%
Kill by Kierstyn Barton (set by Kylie Munday)
Set 2 · USC 10-10 USD · USD 24% → 27%
07
Abigail MullenAttack error+2.9%
Attack error by Abigail Mullen
Set 1 · USC 11-10 USD · USD 39% → 42%
08
Abigail MullenKill+2.9%
Kill by Abigail Mullen (set by Milly McGee)
Set 2 · USC 14-11 USD · USC 78% → 81%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Southern Californiaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Abigail MullenOPP	3	9	6	29	.103	1	1	2	6	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
2London WijayOH	3	9	5	32	.125	3	1	1	6	1	0	2	1	11
1Adonia FaumuinaOH	3	7	1	18	.333	1	0	2	4	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
7Leah FordMB	3	7	2	12	.417	0	1	2	7	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
8Mia TvrdyMB	3	5	2	12	.250	1	0	0	3	0	0	6	3	8
16Lilli EtterS	3	1	0	3	.333	27	0	1	6	0	0	2	1	2
3Layli OstovarOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
6Taylor DeckertL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	15	1	0	0	0	0
24Milly McGeeS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Paisley DouglasL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	16	107	.206	36	3	10	49	2	1	15	8.5	75

San Diegohome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
1Nemo BeachOH	3	7	5	31	.065	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	8
7Kierstyn BartonOH	3	7	5	28	.071	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	7
8Ryann KnuthOH	3	5	6	27	-.037	0	1	2	7	2	0	0	6
3Ella FultonMB	3	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
12Kylie MundayS	3	0	0	2	.000	23	0	1	9	0	0	0	0
18BayLea SparksMB	2	3	1	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
13Emma BrewerOH	3	3	2	10	.100	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Lauren LynchL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	14	0	0	0	0
15Meghan ScholzMB	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
4Reese BatesDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Tatum LaneS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	21	115	.061	26	2	11	42	3	2	1	57

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 10 USC · USD 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 USCUSD 3

Set 2*

25-13

Longest run 10 USCUSD 2

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 5 USCUSD 5

Bars above the line = San Diego leads, below = Southern California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Southern California

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	46%6/13	20%1/5
2	71%5/7	38%3/8
3	63%5/8	38%3/8
4	71%5/7	64%9/14
5	80%4/5	43%3/7
6	67%4/6	33%2/6
All	63%29/46	44%21/48

San Diego

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	63%5/8	54%7/13
2	63%5/8	29%2/7
3	36%5/14	38%3/8
4	57%4/7	29%2/7
5	67%4/6	20%1/5
6	80%4/5	33%2/6
All	56%27/48	37%17/46

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

132 rallies

Rally log

#	USC-USD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	USD	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+1.8
2	1-1	USC	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Lauren Lynch	+1.8
3	1-2	USD	USD	Ace	USD server	aced Taylor Deckert	+2.6
4	2-2	USD	USC×4	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+1.8
5	3-2	USC	USC×4	Attack err	Ryann Knuth	blk Abigail Mullen, Mia Tvrdy	+2.6
6	4-2	USC	USC×4	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+2.5
7	5-2	USC	USC×4	Attack err	Ryann Knuth	blk London Wijay, Abigail Mullen, Mia Tvrdy	+2.4
8	5-3	USC	USD	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy		+1.7
9	6-3	USD	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+1.8
10	7-3	USC	USC	Ace	USC server	aced Ryann Knuth	+2.3
11	7-4	USC	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+1.5
12	8-4	USD	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+1.7
13	8-5	USC	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+1.5
14	9-5	USD	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.7
15	9-6	USC	USD×3	Kill	Ella Fulton	set Kylie Munday	+1.5
16	9-7	USD	USD×3	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Lilli Etter	+2.4
17	9-8	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina		+2.8
18	10-8	USD	USC	Serve err	USD server		+2.2
19	11-8	USC	USC	Attack err	Nemo Beach		+2.8
20	11-9	USC	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Lauren Lynch	+1.8
21	11-10	USD	USD	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+2.9
22	12-10	USD	USC	Attack err	BayLea Sparks		+2.3
23	12-11	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+2.2
24	13-11	USD	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+2.4
25	13-12	USC	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+2.3
26	14-12	USD	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+2.5
27	14-13	USC	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+2.3
28	15-13	USD	USC×4	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+2.6
29	16-13	USC	USC×4	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+3.3
30	17-13	USC	USC×4	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+2.8
31	18-13	USC	USC×4	Attack err	Ryann Knuth		+2.1
32	18-14	USC	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+1.1
33	19-14	USD	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+1.5
34	19-15	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+1.0
35	20-15	USD	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+1.5
36	20-16	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+0.9
37	21-16	USD	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+1.4
38	21-17	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+0.8
39	22-17	USD	USC	Serve err	USD server		+1.3
40	22-18	USC	USD×3	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+0.7
41	22-19	USD	USD×3	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.6
42	22-20	USD	USD×3	Attack err	London Wijay		+2.8
43	23-20	USD	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+3.2
44	24-20	USC	USC	Bad set	Kylie Munday		+2.4
45	24-21	USC	USD×3	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Kylie Munday	+0.5
46	24-22	USD	USD×3	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Nemo Beach	+1.7
47	24-23	USD	USD×3	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+4.1
48	25-23	USD	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Abigail Mullen	+7.0
Set 2
1	0-1	USC	USD	Kill	Ella Fulton	set Kylie Munday	+1.7
2	1-1	USD	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.7
3	2-1	USC	USC	Attack err	Ryann Knuth		+2.4
4	2-2	USC	USD	Attack err	London Wijay		+1.8
5	3-2	USD	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+1.8
6	3-3	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+1.8
7	4-3	USD	USC	Serve err	USD server		+1.8
8	4-4	USC	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+1.8
9	4-5	USD	USD	Bad set	Lilli Etter		+2.6
10	5-5	USD	USC×3	Serve err	USD server		+1.9
11	6-5	USC	USC×3	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set London Wijay	+2.6
12	7-5	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Meghan Scholz		+2.6
13	7-6	USC	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+1.8
14	7-7	USD	USD	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+2.7
15	8-7	USD	USC	Serve err	USD server		+2.0
16	9-7	USC	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+2.7
17	9-8	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+1.9
18	10-8	USD	USC	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+2.0
19	10-9	USC	USD	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+2.0
20	10-10	USD	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+3.0
21	11-10	USD	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Kylie Munday	+2.2
22	11-11	USC	USD	Kill	Ella Fulton	set Milly McGee	+2.2
23	12-11	USD	USC×3	Serve err	USD server		+2.3
24	13-11	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton	blk Mia Tvrdy	+3.1
25	14-11	USC	USC×3	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+2.9
26	14-12	USC	USD	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy	blk Meghan Scholz, Emma Brewer	+1.9
27	15-12	USD	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set London Wijay	+2.2
28	15-13	USC	USD	Attack err	London Wijay		+1.9
29	16-13	USD	USC×10	Bad set	Lauren Lynch		+2.2
30	17-13	USC	USC×10	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+2.6
31	18-13	USC	USC×10	Attack err	Nemo Beach		+2.0
32	19-13	USC	USC×10	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Taylor Deckert	+1.4
33	20-13	USC	USC×10	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
34	21-13	USC	USC×10	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+0.4
35	22-13	USC	USC×10	Kill	Adonia Faumuina		+0.2
36	23-13	USC	USC×10	Ace	USC server	aced Ryann Knuth	+0.1
37	24-13	USC	USC×10	Attack err	Nemo Beach	blk Mia Tvrdy, Lilli Etter	+0.0
38	25-13	USC	USC×10	Attack err	Nemo Beach	blk Mia Tvrdy, Lilli Etter	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	USD	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+1.6
2	0-2	USD	USD	Attack err	Leah Ford		+1.6
3	1-2	USD	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.1
4	1-3	USC	USD	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.2
5	1-4	USD	USD	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+1.6
6	2-4	USD	USC	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton		+1.1
7	2-5	USC	USD	Kill	Ryann Knuth	set Kylie Munday	+1.2
8	2-6	USD	USD	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.5
9	3-6	USD	USC×5	Serve err	USD server		+1.0
10	4-6	USC	USC×5	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+1.5
11	5-6	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton		+1.6
12	6-6	USC	USC×5	Ace	USC server	aced Team	+1.7
13	7-6	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Ryann Knuth	blk Abigail Mullen, Mia Tvrdy	+1.8
14	7-7	USC	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+1.3
15	8-7	USD	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Taylor Deckert	+1.3
16	8-8	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+1.3
17	8-9	USD	USD	Ace	USD server	aced London Wijay	+1.9
18	9-9	USD	USC	Serve err	USD server		+1.4
19	10-9	USC	USC	Attack err	Emma Brewer		+1.9
20	10-10	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+1.4
21	11-10	USD	USC	Serve err	USD server		+1.4
22	11-11	USC	USD	Kill	Kierstyn Barton	set Kylie Munday	+1.4
23	12-11	USD	USC	Serve err	USD server		+1.5
24	13-11	USC	USC	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton		+2.0
25	13-12	USC	USD	Kill	Emma Brewer	set Kylie Munday	+1.4
26	14-12	USD	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set London Wijay	+1.5
27	14-13	USC	USD	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.4
28	15-13	USD	USC×4	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+1.6
29	16-13	USC	USC×4	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+2.0
30	17-13	USC	USC×4	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Mia Tvrdy	+1.7
31	18-13	USC	USC×4	Attack err	Emma Brewer		+1.3
32	18-14	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+0.7
33	19-14	USD	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.9
34	19-15	USC	USD	Serve err	USC server		+0.6
35	20-15	USD	USC	Attack err	Ryann Knuth		+0.9
36	21-15	USC	USC	Attack err	Meghan Scholz	blk Adonia Faumuina	+0.8
37	21-16	USC	USD	Attack err	London Wijay		+0.3
38	22-16	USD	USC	Serve err	USD server		+0.5
39	22-17	USC	USD×5	Kill	BayLea Sparks	set Kylie Munday	+0.2
40	22-18	USD	USD×5	Attack err	Leah Ford		+0.6
41	22-19	USD	USD×5	Kill	Nemo Beach	set Kylie Munday	+1.0
42	22-20	USD	USD×5	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.7
43	22-21	USD	USD×5	Attack err	London Wijay		+2.7
44	23-21	USD	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+2.8
45	24-21	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Kierstyn Barton		+2.7
46	25-21	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Nemo Beach	blk Leah Ford, Adonia Faumuina	+1.0

Score shown after each rally, Southern California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.