Penn State def. Southern California 3-0 Volleyball (Oct 17)

FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026BTN

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Penn St. 67.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Penn St. won at Southern California 3-0 (25-17, 25-23, 25-19) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Kennedy Martin led Penn St. with 10 kills; Southern California's London Wijay had a match-high 11.

Data through Nov 3, 9:10 PM CT · final Oct 17

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PENNST	25	25	25	3
USC	17	23	19	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

No. 15 Penn St. left no doubt against Southern California.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.9 points. Southern California peaked at 35% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Penn St. at 67%.

Penn St.Southern California

Break %+13.6 pts
48.635.0
36 of 74 on serve vs 21 of 60, so Southern California's sideout was 51.4%.
Hitting+.109
.203.094
40 K / 14 E against 37 K / 24 E.
Longest run+0
55
5 straight Penn St. points in the first set stretched a 16–14 lead to 21–14. That set ended 25–17.

Southern California above 50Penn St. belowMax swing 4.9%

Penn St.Southern California

Aces: Penn St. 3·Southern California 2
Serve err: Penn St. 6·Southern California 7
Blocks: Penn St. 9·Southern California 71 BS · 16 BA vs 2 BS · 10 BA
Digs: Penn St. 60·Southern California 61

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern California above 50 · Penn St. below

Biggest swing: 4.9% to Penn St. — set 2, PENNST 25-23 USC. Kill by Kennedy Martin (set by Alexis Stucky). USC win probability 12% → 7%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PENNST 76.7%23.3% USC

Penn St. wins

3-0

28.5%

3-1

29.2%

3-2

19.0%

Southern California wins

3-0

4.0%

3-1

7.9%

3-2

11.4%

PENNST break %: 42.5% vs this opp
USC break %: 37.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Kennedy MartinKill+4.9%
Kill by Kennedy Martin (set by Alexis Stucky)
Set 2 · PENNST 25-23 USC · PENNST 88% → 93%
02
Emmi SellmanKill+3.2%
Kill by Emmi Sellman (set by Alexis Stucky)
Set 1 · PENNST 15-13 USC · PENNST 69% → 72%
03
Abigail MullenAce+3.1%
Ace by Abigail Mullen on Ava Falduto
Set 1 · PENNST 12-12 USC · USC 30% → 33%
04
London WijayKill+3.1%
Kill by London Wijay (set by Milly McGee)
Set 2 · PENNST 20-19 USC · USC 12% → 15%
05
Whitney LauensteinKill+3.1%
Kill by Whitney Lauenstein (set by Alexis Stucky)
Set 2 · PENNST 22-19 USC · PENNST 87% → 90%
06
Mia TvrdyBlock+3.0%
Gabrielle Nichols stuffed by Mia Tvrdy
Set 2 · PENNST 24-23 USC · USC 9% → 12%
07
Emmi SellmanKill+2.8%
Kill by Emmi Sellman
Set 1 · PENNST 16-13 USC · PENNST 72% → 75%
08
Kennedy MartinAttack error+2.7%
Attack error by Kennedy Martin
Set 1 · PENNST 12-11 USC · USC 27% → 30%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Penn St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
18Kennedy MartinOH	3	10	3	43	.163	0	1	1	5	0	0	4	2	13
26Whitney LauensteinOH	3	8	5	27	.111	0	0	0	7	0	0	2	1	9
8Gabrielle NicholsMB	3	6	2	19	.211	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	9
1Kendall NorthernMB	3	7	2	12	.417	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
5Alexis StuckyS	3	1	0	5	.200	31	1	2	14	0	0	2	1	3
23Haley BurgdorfOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	1
13Emmi SellmanOH	3	7	2	21	.238	0	1	2	5	1	0	1	0.5	8.5
2Ava FaldutoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	0
11Jocelyn NathanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0
9Lexi GinDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
10Ava JureviciusDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	14	128	.203	36	3	6	60	2	1	16	9	75

Southern Californiahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2London WijayOH	3	11	7	46	.087	0	0	1	11	0	0	0	0	11
5Abigail MullenOPP	3	8	12	33	-.121	0	1	2	12	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
7Leah FordMB	3	6	0	14	.429	0	0	2	0	0	1	3	2.5	8.5
8Mia TvrdyMB	3	6	2	20	.200	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	8
24Milly McGeeS	3	0	0	1	.000	31	0	0	6	0	0	2	1	1
17Paisley DouglasL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	10	1	0	0	0	0
1Adonia FaumuinaOH	3	6	3	23	.130	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
40Addison TownsendL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Taylor DeckertL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	15	2	0	0	0	0
16Lilli EtterS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
3Layli OstovarOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		37	24	138	.094	37	2	7	61	3	2	10	7	59

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 PENNST · USC 5

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 PENNSTUSC 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 PENNSTUSC 5

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 PENNSTUSC 3

Bars above the line = Southern California leads, below = Penn St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Penn St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	57%8/14	53%8/15
2	54%7/13	61%11/18
3	100%6/6	33%3/9
4	60%6/10	50%6/12
5	67%6/9	40%4/10
6	75%6/8	40%4/10
All	65%39/60	49%36/74

Southern California

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%8/24	30%3/10
2	67%6/9	38%5/13
3	67%6/9	45%5/11
4	46%6/13	40%4/10
5	55%6/11	25%2/8
6	75%6/8	25%2/8
All	51%38/74	35%21/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

134 rallies

#	PENNST-USC	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	PENNST	PENNST	Blocked	Mia Tvrdy	blk Gabrielle Nichols	+2.3
2	1-1	PENNST	USC	Serve err	Alexis Stucky		+1.6
3	2-1	USC	PENNST	Bad set	London Wijay		+1.6
4	3-1	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	London Wijay		+2.2
5	3-2	PENNST	USC×3	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+1.5
6	3-3	USC	USC×3	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Taylor Deckert	+2.4
7	3-4	USC	USC×3	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+2.6
8	4-4	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+1.7
9	5-4	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+2.5
10	5-5	PENNST	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Milly McGee	+1.8
11	6-5	USC	PENNST×3	Blocked	London Wijay	blk Kennedy Martin, Kendall Northern	+1.7
12	7-5	PENNST	PENNST×3	Blocked	Adonia Faumuina	blk Alexis Stucky, Kennedy Martin	+2.4
13	8-5	PENNST	PENNST×3	Ace	Kennedy Martin	aced Taylor Deckert	+2.2
14	8-6	PENNST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+1.5
15	9-6	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+1.6
16	9-7	PENNST	USC	Serve err	Emmi Sellman		+1.5
17	9-8	USC	USC	Blocked	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Leah Ford	+2.5
18	10-8	USC	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Ava Falduto	+1.8
19	10-9	PENNST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+1.8
20	11-9	USC	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+1.9
21	12-9	PENNST	PENNST	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Whitney Lauenstein	+2.5
22	12-10	PENNST	USC×3	Kill	London Wijay	set Taylor Deckert	+1.6
23	12-11	USC	USC×3	Attack err	Kennedy Martin		+2.7
24	12-12	USC	USC×3	Ace	Abigail Mullen	aced Ava Falduto	+3.1
25	13-12	USC	PENNST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+2.2
26	13-13	PENNST	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+2.3
27	14-13	USC	PENNST×3	Serve err	London Wijay		+2.3
28	15-13	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Alexis Stucky	+3.2
29	16-13	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Emmi Sellman		+2.8
30	16-14	PENNST	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+1.7
31	17-14	USC	PENNST×5	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+2.0
32	18-14	PENNST	PENNST×5	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Emmi Sellman, Kendall Northern	+2.3
33	19-14	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Alexis Stucky	set Jocelyn Nathan	+1.7
34	20-14	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+1.0
35	21-14	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Alexis Stucky	+0.6
36	21-15	PENNST	USC	Blocked	Kendall Northern	blk Leah Ford, Adonia Faumuina	+0.2
37	22-15	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+0.3
38	23-15	PENNST	PENNST	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Alexis Stucky, Kendall Northern	+0.2
39	23-16	PENNST	USC	Attack err	Kennedy Martin		·
40	24-16	USC	PENNST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+0.1
41	24-17	PENNST	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	·
42	25-17	USC	PENNST	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Whitney Lauenstein	·
Set 2
1	0-1	USC	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+2.0
2	1-1	USC	PENNST×5	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+1.4
3	2-1	PENNST	PENNST×5	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+2.0
4	3-1	PENNST	PENNST×5	Ace	Alexis Stucky	aced Taylor Deckert	+1.9
5	4-1	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+1.7
6	5-1	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+1.6
7	5-2	PENNST	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+1.0
8	6-2	USC	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set London Wijay	+1.1
9	6-3	PENNST	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+1.0
10	7-3	USC	PENNST	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Alexis Stucky	+1.1
11	7-4	PENNST	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+1.0
12	8-4	USC	PENNST	Attack err	Adonia Faumuina		+1.1
13	8-5	PENNST	USC	Serve err	Kennedy Martin		+1.0
14	9-5	USC	PENNST	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Alexis Stucky	+1.1
15	10-5	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.4
16	10-6	PENNST	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.8
17	10-7	USC	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+1.5
18	11-7	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+1.2
19	11-8	PENNST	USC	Attack err	Gabrielle Nichols		+1.1
20	11-9	USC	USC	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		+1.9
21	12-9	USC	PENNST×5	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+1.4
22	13-9	PENNST	PENNST×5	Attack err	London Wijay		+1.8
23	14-9	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+1.4
24	15-9	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+1.1
25	16-9	PENNST	PENNST×5	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Jocelyn Nathan	+0.7
26	16-10	PENNST	USC	Serve err	Alexis Stucky		+0.3
27	17-10	USC	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+0.5
28	17-11	PENNST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+0.3
29	18-11	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Ava Falduto	+0.5
30	18-12	PENNST	USC×5	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Milly McGee	+0.3
31	18-13	USC	USC×5	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
32	18-14	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Kendall Northern		+1.0
33	18-15	USC	USC×5	Attack err	Emmi Sellman		+1.5
34	18-16	USC	USC×5	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Taylor Deckert	+2.1
35	19-16	USC	PENNST	Serve err	Lilli Etter		+1.8
36	20-16	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	London Wijay		+2.0
37	20-17	PENNST	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+1.0
38	20-18	USC	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+2.1
39	20-19	USC	USC×3	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+3.1
40	21-19	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+2.7
41	22-19	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+3.1
42	22-20	PENNST	USC	Blocked	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Abigail Mullen, Leah Ford	+1.4
43	23-20	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+2.2
44	23-21	PENNST	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+1.2
45	24-21	USC	PENNST	Kill	Whitney Lauenstein	set Alexis Stucky	+2.2
46	24-22	PENNST	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.8
47	24-23	USC	USC	Blocked	Gabrielle Nichols	blk Mia Tvrdy	+3.0
48	25-23	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+4.9
Set 3
1	1-0	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Jocelyn Nathan	+1.1
2	2-0	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+1.0
3	2-1	PENNST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+0.7
4	3-1	USC	PENNST	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy		+0.7
5	4-1	PENNST	PENNST	Blocked	Adonia Faumuina	blk Kennedy Martin, Gabrielle Nichols	+1.0
6	4-2	PENNST	USC×3	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+0.6
7	4-3	USC	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+1.1
8	4-4	USC	USC×3	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+1.2
9	5-4	USC	PENNST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+0.8
10	5-5	PENNST	USC	Serve err	Ava Falduto		+0.8
11	6-5	USC	PENNST	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Alexis Stucky	+0.8
12	6-6	PENNST	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+0.9
13	7-6	USC	PENNST	Kill	Emmi Sellman	set Alexis Stucky	+0.9
14	8-6	PENNST	PENNST	Ace	Emmi Sellman	aced Paisley Douglas	+1.2
15	8-7	PENNST	USC	Serve err	Emmi Sellman		+0.8
16	9-7	USC	PENNST×3	Serve err	Leah Ford		+0.8
17	10-7	PENNST	PENNST×3	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols		+1.1
18	11-7	PENNST	PENNST×3	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.0
19	11-8	PENNST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+0.6
20	12-8	USC	PENNST	Serve err	Abigail Mullen		+0.7
21	13-8	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	London Wijay		+0.8
22	13-9	PENNST	USC	Blocked	Whitney Lauenstein	blk Mia Tvrdy, Milly McGee	+0.5
23	13-10	USC	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Milly McGee	+0.9
24	14-10	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.7
25	15-10	PENNST	PENNST	Attack err	London Wijay		+0.8
26	15-11	PENNST	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Milly McGee	+0.4
27	15-12	USC	USC	Ace	Layli Ostovar	aced Emmi Sellman	+0.9
28	16-12	USC	PENNST	Kill	Kennedy Martin	set Alexis Stucky	+0.7
29	16-13	PENNST	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+0.6
30	17-13	USC	PENNST	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+0.7
31	17-14	PENNST	USC	Blocked	Emmi Sellman	blk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford	+0.6
32	18-14	USC	PENNST	Serve err	Paisley Douglas		+0.8
33	19-14	PENNST	PENNST	Kill	Kendall Northern	set Alexis Stucky	+0.8
34	19-15	PENNST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+0.4
35	20-15	USC	PENNST	Serve err	Leah Ford		+0.5
36	20-16	PENNST	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+0.3
37	20-17	USC	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.8
38	21-17	USC	PENNST×4	Serve err	Abigail Mullen		+0.8
39	22-17	PENNST	PENNST×4	Blocked	London Wijay	blk Gabrielle Nichols, Kennedy Martin	+0.7
40	23-17	PENNST	PENNST×4	Kill	Haley Burgdorf	set Alexis Stucky	+0.3
41	24-17	PENNST	PENNST×4	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols		+0.1
42	24-18	PENNST	USC	Attack err	Whitney Lauenstein		·
43	24-19	USC	USC	Blocked	Kennedy Martin	blk Milly McGee, Mia Tvrdy	·
44	25-19	USC	PENNST	Kill	Gabrielle Nichols	set Alexis Stucky	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Penn St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Penn St. def. Southern California 3–0

No. 15 Penn St. left no doubt against Southern California.